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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Divisional Playoffs
Value Plays
1/15/16


It was a tough go in cash last week, but to be somewhat expected with the high variance of these playoff slates. Cash games entail quite a bit more risk than the larger regular season slate. It is advantageous to scale back your exposure a bit as there are less wrong answers out there than normal and thus our edge is diminished. There is some great value this week and some situations I am targeting below and I’m looking forward to finishing out the season on a positive note. Thank you all for reading this season.


FanDuel Lineup - Divisional Round

Value Plays


RB – Fitzgerald Toussaint, PIT ($6200) @ DEN

DeAngelo Williams is expected out again this week and Antonio Brown will join him. Toussaint had a big role in this offense last week and out-touched Jordan Todman 21-11 in his route to 118 total yards. Toussaint saw eight targets in the passing game and that is exactly where he holds value against the Broncos defense. They are stout against the run and have some amazing corners but they can be exposed in the short passing game.

QB – Russell Wilson, SEA ($8400) @ CAR

Wilson finished the year as the leagues hottest quarterback, that much is for sure. People may actually be off him this week as crazy as that sounds after a poor performance in frigid Minnesota. This will be a completely different game in regards to playing conditions and I expect Wilson to pick up where he left off. Carolina did not finish the season extremely strong against the quarterback position believe it or not and Wilson has a great price as the fourth most expensive quarterback on the slate.

WR – Michael Floyd, ARI ($6500) vs. GB

Floyd has 100-yards in five of his last eight games and represents a great value on FanDuel yet again. He will continue to be a threat in an offense not afraid to throw downfield. Carson Palmer has accounted for 71% of the teams’ offensive touchdowns this year and Floyd is a great way to get exposure to Palmer at value this week.

TE – Greg Olsen, CAR ($6500) vs. SEA

When the game was on the line last week, the Vikings hit Kyle Rudolph because that is where the Seahawks can be attacked. Olsen has a very high floor and on a slate where the tight end options aren’t great, he is a clear top option. His floor/ceiling is similar to Rob Gronkowski but you can get Olsen for $1800 cheaper.

WR – Doug Baldwin, SEA ($7400) @ CAR

I clearly like Wilson this week so pairing him with his top option should be a great strategy, especially with Baldwin avoiding Norman as he runs the majority of his routes through the slot. Baldwin has been the most consistent touchdown receiver in the league since Jimmy Graham went down to injury and is a steal at $7400.

RB – C.J. Anderson, DEN ($5900) vs. PIT

It’s a volatile situation in the Denver backfield right now with the risk that Ronnie Hillman could take over at any time but I’m comfortable rolling out Anderson this week. With the injuries Pittsburgh is fighting through, Denver could find themselves with a lead and ready to lean on Anderson heavily. He received the teams’ last two goal line carries and in the FanDuel format touchdown projections always have to be a strong consideration.