One of the most difficult tasks in drafting a fantasy football team
is trying to decide between two players you think have identical
value. Knowing how to break a tie is important, as often a pick
comes down to a dilemma between Player A and Player B. The purpose
of this article is to not only identify pairs of players that are
considered of nearly equal value in 2023, but also take a look at
the process of solving those dilemmas.
Our final installment in this three-part series focuses on running
backs. In this case, we’ll examine two runners who have been
breakout candidates every year they’ve been in the league.
Drafted in 2020, J.K. Dobbins was projected as a top 10-15 RB
in fantasy for years to come and after his first season, those
projections seemed on point. But a devastating knee injury eliminated
his 2021 campaign and had a lingering impact on his 2022 season.
This offseason, the Ravens didn’t add anyone substantial
to their backfield which indicates they’re willing to give
Dobbins another chance at lead-back status.
Miles Sanders, on the other hand, made the jump last season.
That is, he “broke out” with over 1,300 yards and
double-digit touchdowns. Sanders was drafted a year before Dobbins
and like J.K., was more of a fantasy tease than an asset during
his first three seasons. Now, Sanders will get a full workload,
but on a team with less firepower than the Eagles.
The Strengths
Sanders averages 5 yards per carry. That’s not over the
course of one game or even one season - that is his average throughout
his entire four-year professional career. To put it mildly, he is
an explosive runner with the ability to take it to the house. And,
because 2022 was only the second year in which Sanders played more
than 12 games, he’s only accumulated 739 carries to date.
Just to put that in context, Derrick Henry has played in only three
more seasons than Sanders, but over 1,000 more carries. Translation:
Sanders still has plenty of tread on his tires. And in Carolina,
he isn’t likely to be part of a running back by committee.
Instead, look for Sanders to get at least the 279 touches he got
last season… and at 5 yards a rush, that’s a productive
fantasy season. Also consider that since he won’t have Jalen
Hurts around to vulture goal line TDs, his scoring prospects don’t
take quite the hit that you might think despite the obvious downgrade
in offense.
If you think a career YPC of 5.0 yards a carry is good (and it
is), how do you feel about a career YPC of 5.9 yards on over 200
carries? That’s what J.K. Dobbins has done and like Sanders,
Dobbins benefits from having a quarterback that is so dangerous
running the football that defenses can’t key in on him despite
his past success. In today’s NFL, few RBs eclipse the 5.5
yards per carry mark even on a limited number of attempts. Dobbins
is also staring at a contract season in which he knows his performance
in the months to come will determine his eligibility for renewal
this next offseason. The situation is reminiscent of where Saquon Barkley was prior to 2022 when he was facing the end of an existing
contract. Barkley had his best/healthiest season since his rookie
year and the result was him exceeding his draft cost. Dobbins
looks and feels like this year’s Barkley, but on a team
with a better offensive line. All of this suggests Dobbins is
set up for success even as he competes for carries amongst several
other RBs currently on the roster.
The Weaknesses
While Sanders has proven he can handle a high volume of touches,
Dobbins has yet run the ball more than 134 times in a season.
Sure, all signs point to Dobbins finally being able to fulfill
that role in Baltimore, but he’s also got more competition
for carries than Sanders does. And, can we say definitively that
Dobbins is capable of getting through a season without breaking
down physically? The answer is - no, we cannot. And, therein lies
the problem. Sanders is more of a proven commodity while Dobbins
still has some question marks. In addition, Dobbins appears to
be miffed about his current contract. Yes, contract players often
play their best for reasons already noted, but they can also spend
the season distracted and disgruntled if they feel they are not
appreciated. Are any of these red flags for Dobbins? Probably
not… but, yellow flags for sure.
Let’s be honest. Sanders is not going to enjoy the running
lanes in Carolina that he used to get in Philadelphia. Further,
he’ll be playing with a rookie QB and will need to be proficient
in pass protection to remain on the field. However, when a running
back is in pass protection mode, he obviously isn’t running
routes and Sanders was already averaging less than 25 receptions
a year over the past three seasons, so there’s not a great
deal of upside unless you think he’ll be more involved in
the passing game. Baltimore should spend quite a bit of time playing
from ahead and that means game script should favor Dobbins more
than Sanders.
The Verdict
It’s decision time. You’ve already drafted your lead
runner and now you want a quality, high upside RB2. There is confidence
in fantasy circles that Sanders is going to receive more touches
as the undisputed lead runner in Carolina. His YPC is likely going
to tumble on a lesser offense, but the increased volume should
compensate for that. Sanders scored more TDs in 2022 than his
three previous years combined, and while that’s a positive,
it also points to some TD regression on a team that will have
fewer trips to the red zone. The bottom line is that Sanders probably
saw his peak as a fantasy producer last season, but could stay
at that peak for another season, making him a high-floor selection
in the fourth round.
Dobbins’ floor is much lower with his inability to stay
healthy a real concern. He has Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and
Lamar Jackson all competing for rushing attempts, and he is a
complete non-factor in the passing game. Sounds like the decision
is made, right? Not so fast. Dobbins is also in a better offense,
is highly motivated, and should run for 1 to 1.5 more yards per
carry than Sanders based on projections.
I don’t think there’s much chance of Sanders cracking
the top ten this season at the RB position, even in non-PPR formats.
But, Dobbins has that chance. Hence, the modestly higher ceiling.
If you’ve taken a zero-RB approach through three rounds,
I think taking Sanders over Dobbins is a must. He’s safer
and his volume is much more guaranteed. But, if you’re looking
for a guy who’s primed for a breakout, Dobbins is worth
a look as a RB2. Do you value security? Or are you willing to
gamble on potential?
Projected Statistics:
Miles Sanders - 1,180 rushing yards; 29 receptions, 200 receiving
yards, 8 total TDs
