One of the most difficult tasks in drafting a fantasy football
team is trying to decide between two players you think have identical
value. Knowing how to break a tie is important, as often a pick
comes down to a dilemma between Player A and Player B. The purpose
of this article is to not only identify pairs of players that
are considered of nearly equal value in 2023, but also take a
look at the process of solving those dilemmas.
Our second installment in this three-part series focuses on wide
receivers. In this case, two receivers who have enjoyed Hall of
Fame careers to date and still have more left in the tank. Both
make excellent middle-to-late second-round targets as either a
WR1 for your respective team or a dynamic WR2. But you can only
choose one.
The Strengths
Davante Adams is a target monster. We use that moniker frequently
in fantasy football circles -- too frequently in fact. In Adams’s
case, the label fits the product. Adams has been targeted 355 times
since becoming a Raider two years ago and there was nobody added
this off-season to the Raiders’ wide receiver corps that should
steal from Adams’ target share.
Despite his many flaws, Gardner Minshew (assuming he’s
the starter come September) can sling the football. Minshew has
thrown for 59 TDs and nearly 10,000 yards in his 37 career starts
and will be forced to throw more in Las Vegas than he did in Indianapolis
due to the defense that he’s now connected with. Adams struggled
last season with the Raiders’ decision to move on from Derek Carr, but by all reports has put that disgruntlement behind him.
Adams is a complete receiver. He has the size (6’1, 215)
to make valuable catches in traffic and the speed to stretch the
field if his QB can get the ball to him. To say he’s the
centerpiece of the Raiders’ attack is putting it mildly
and he’s one of the more undervalued WRs in fantasy football
primarily because of who he plays for.
On the flip side of this drafting dilemma is a player who was
way undervalued last season and won some fantasy championships
for those fortunate enough to draft him. Mike Evans is just eight
months younger than Davante Adams and came into the league the
exact same season (2014). While Adams has caught 95 career TDs,
Evans has countered with 94 TDs of his own and more yardage. Speaking
of yardage, Evans has been above 1,000 yards receiving every single
season he’s played in the NFL.
Some expected a decline for Evans with Baker Mayfield at quarterback,
but instead of that hampering Evans’s totals, he had the
second most touchdowns (13) of his career and third most receiving
yards (1255). And, despite his age, Evans still averaged right
at 16 yards per reception. That stat alone suggests that Evans
is not a player in decline.
Finally, Evans is helped by having Chris Godwin opposite him
even as Godwin often plays from the slot. Godwin is good enough
of a WR to draw defensive coverage, but is no real threat to Evans’
alpha role. If it’s consistency you’re looking for,
Evans meets that standard.
The Weaknesses
Despite the whopping number of targets Adams garnered in 2023,
he only caught 103 of 175 passes thrown his way. The previous
year, he caught even less (100) despite 180 targets. A new quarterback
this season could change all of that, but in reality, Minshew’s
career completion percentage (62.2%) is essentially identical
to what Aiden O’Connell was able to accomplish last season.
Secondly, Adams’ YPC dropped from 15.2 (with Derek Carr)
to 11.1 last season -- his lowest mark since 2015. Targets are
important and no wide receiver in the NFL had more in 2022-2023
than Adams, but if 152 of those during that stretch resulted in
incompletions, it loses a bit of its luster.
Wide receivers often begin to lose a step in their early 30s
and Adams will be 32 before the end of this season. Is his YPC
(a good indicator of slowing down) going to remain in the low
double-digits again this season? Not necessarily, of course, but
it does give reason for pause.
The lack of WR competition remains but the drafting of TE Brock Bowers could change the passing pattern in a way that lessens
Davante’s role. I do think Adams remains a threat to put
up top 6-10 numbers as a WR, but there is some inherent risk based
on these noted factors.
As for Evans, the percentage of targets turned into receptions
is identical to Adams in that he catches 58% of the balls that
were intended for him. However, the 58% is coming out of a much
smaller target share than Adams. Even in one of his best seasons
of his career was targeted 39 times less than Adams with 24 fewer
receptions. In fact, Evans hasn’t broken 80 receptions in
a season for five consecutive years.
In short, Evans’s red zone prowess and propensity for long
receptions makes him a top-10 WR easily in non-PPR contests, but
when receptions are factored in, even at half a point, his meager
4.6 catches per game leaves him shy of many of the game’s
most elite fantasy pass catchers.
Also, while the Mayfield to Evans chemistry was terrific last
season, Mayfield’s career play suggests he’s already
reached his ceiling as a quarterback, fantasy and otherwise. In
other words, while Adams could easily exceed last year’s
totals in 2024, Evans is less likely to do so.
The Verdict
Who you select when weighing Adams vs. Evans is going to depend
largely on your scoring system. Many of your opponents will overlook
the disparity in receptions between these star receivers and will
thus overvalue Evans in PPR leagues despite his receptions ceiling.
While the chemistry between Mayfield and Evans is evident, Adams
is coming into an unknown situation this year with a potential
new quarterback. That makes him the riskier pick.
If your league is full-PPR, the recommendation is to take Adams
over Evans. There’s simply not enough yardage and TD production
from Evans to overcome the reception gap not only last year, but
over the course of both careers.
In half-PPR leagues, it becomes cloudy as both players carry
almost identical projections. In that scenario, the near certainty
of Evans gives him a slim advantage from our standpoint since
he is carrying into 2024 the same quarterback, coach, and offensive
staff.
As for non-PPR, Evans becomes the clear choice as he is projected
to be the stronger of the two players in terms of both yards receiving
and touchdowns.
These two greats have combined for 20 seasons in the NFL which
has given us a lot of data to look at. Receivers like Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Nico Collins, and Chris Olave are
younger and may thus offer a bit more upside. But you can’t
go wrong with building your receiving corps around one of these
two and you can tailor your choice to what works best for your
scoring system.
Projected Statistics:
