It’s getting late on draft day. The jokes are getting stale,
the beer is getting scarce, and the available talent is getting
downright scary. Naturally, your mind drifts toward…insurance?
With the possible exception of those in the business, the amount
of time we spend thinking about insurance is roughly equivalent
to the amount of time we think about needing it. That would be never
if you’re anything like me. Similarly, the amount of time
we think about NFL backups, professional football’s personification
of insurance policies, is more or less equivalent to the amount
of time we think about requiring their services. That would be somewhere
north of “never,” due to the rugged nature of the sport,
but still rarely and only when the player pool has become dangerously
shallow on draft day.
Traditionally, risk-averse fantasy GMs have insured against lost
production by means of the “handcuff,” drafting their
stud starter’s backup in the event he suffers an injury at
some point during the season. Your stud goes down, you insert his
backup in your lineup, and off you go. The problem with this strategy,
in my opinion, is that you’re rarely getting replacement value
(another stud) despite the high premium (a draft pick and a valuable
roster spot). For instance, I could certainly spend a draft choice
on Vince Young to insure against the loss of Michael Vick. However,
I’m not really indemnified. When my car gets stolen, I get
a new car. When Michael Vick gets injured, I get…Vince Young.
A more enterprising GM could, alternatively, elect to spend late-round
picks on players with higher ceilings who insure against the loss
of other GMs’ studs, a type of insurance that has
no real world corollary. They don’t, after all, let you take
out a policy on your neighbor’s car, do they? You must have
an insurable interest in the asset, a stipulation that doesn’t
apply in the world of fantasy football. Nothing, in other words,
prevents me from drafting Vince Young even though I don’t
own Michael Vick. Sure, the cost is potentially higher (Vick stays
upright and my signal-caller goes down), but so is the
potential benefit (an extra starter/bargaining chip instead of a
fill-in I’m hoping never plays a down).
To be fair, this latter strategy isn’t so much a form of insurance
as it is asset speculation. Moreover, it would be disingenuous to
suggest Vince Young is necessarily a stock worth speculating in.
Nevertheless, I believe there are NFL backups worth drafting based
on upside alone, regardless whether you own the men ahead of them
on the depth chart. Thus, once you’ve accumulated a decent
crop of fantasy backups, it might be time to start focusing on actual
NFL backups who, in the event of injury or demotion, could potentially
outperform an average or marginal starter sitting on your bench.
If you wait to pluck them off the waiver wire later in the season,
the competition will be fierce and the cost potentially prohibitive.
Get them with a later-round draft pick and you could be sitting
on a potential fantasy goldmine.
What follows is my list of 2011 backups standing on the corner of
Opportunity and Preparedness, waiting to be picked up by the more
risk-tolerant GM hoping to capitalize on a league mate’s misfortune.
(Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default league
scoring.)
Quarterbacks
1.
Shaun Hill, DET: We typically evaluate three variables when
attempting to peg an NFL reserve’s upside:
- How susceptible the #1 guy is to injury?
- How likely the #1 guy is to be demoted on account of poor
performance?
- The potential performance value of the backup himself
Hill, the most valuable QB backup, ranks highly in two of these
three measures. For starters, the guy in front of him, Matthew
Stafford , has been a one-man M*A*S*H unit his first two seasons,
playing only half of a possible 26 starts. Hill, on the other hand,
who replaced Stafford most of last season, has performed surprisingly
well as a sub. Here’s a partial list of the men who ranked below
him for fantasy points per game in 2010: Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco,
Matt Cassel, Sam Bradford, and Mark Sanchez. Surprised? So was I.
Of course, the Detroit brain trust (and I use the term loosely)
has invested an awful lot of time and money in the younger, more
ballyhooed, Stafford. Thus, the likelihood of Hill gaining the spot
due to a demotion, the second of our aforementioned variables, is
very low. Accordingly, you’d be incurring a fair amount of risk
should you choose to draft Hill as there’s always the outside chance
he never sees the field. Still…did you miss the part about Stafford
missing half of his first 26 starts? For every Brett Favre, there
are three kids like this who can’t manage to stay out of the whirlpool.
In fact, if you’re still doubting the wisdom of spending a late-round
flier on Stafford’s backup, Google “oft-injured quarterback.” I’m
just sayin’.
2.
Colin Kaepernick, SF: Quarterback jobs in the NFL are never
shared. They’re either won or lost, maintained or squandered. Kaepernick,
an unusual and impressive physical specimen for the position, makes
this list primarily because the man currently blocking his road
to the starting gig, Alex
Smith, has done only one thing consistently through five NFL
seasons: squander opportunities. Actually, the best thing that can
probably be said about Smith is that he’s still holding onto a starting
job, albeit tenuously. The fact he’s seemingly in a competition
for the spot should indicate how confident the new regime is in
his ability to steer the Niners. Not very. Bear in mind Coach Harbaugh
and his staff have almost no significant investment in the former
#1 overall pick as they weren’t around when the organization opted
for him instead of…. Yeah, that’s one they’d probably rather forget.
As for Kaepernick, this much can safely be said: he’s got
a long ways to go in order to be a legit starting QB. He’s
inexperienced (duh), will struggle to diagnose NFL defenses (assuredly),
and is also having to make the transition from the gimmicky “Pistol”
offense to the more traditional pro set favored by Coach Harbaugh
(steep learning curve). However, speed, as they say, never takes
a day off. And, man, can this kid run like the wind! If he ever
gets the opportunity to start, and Smith’s checkered past
suggests he might, he almost instantaneously becomes the second
most dangerous running threat at the quarterback position in the
league. If you’re a sucker for running quarterbacks like me,
file his name away for the later rounds.
It's an exciting time to be a Charlie Whitehurst
fan.
3.
Charlie Whitehurst, SEA: I’m close enough to Seattle that I
can practically hear the groaning. Simmer down, Seahawks fans. All
the guy did last year was take your lousy team to the NFL playoffs!
Well, kinda. He also managed, in his first career start, to make
many people wonder why the ‘Hawks brass shelled out so much coin
to nab him in the first place (12 for 23 with one TD and two picks).
Still, facing a tough New York Giants front seven minus two offensive
line starters isn’t exactly an ideal scenario for a first-time starter.
Whitehurst was better in later action, spotting Matt Hasselbeck
in two critical games and even starting the final and most critical
game, a season-concluding, playoff-clinching W over the Rams.
Exit Hasselbeck and enter Tarvaris Jackson. The former Viking, currently
listed as the starter, was brought over because he has a firm grasp
of the new offense being installed by new offensive coordinator,
Darrell Bevell. How firm that grasp is, though, could certainly
be questioned. It’s Whitehurst, and not Jackson, who looks
more comfortable running the show through two preseason games. Moreover,
Jackson’s career numbers (76.6 career passer rating) suggest
he’s really never been a great fit for the offense (or any
offense, for that matter). Finally, Seattle is not completely bereft
of weapons. Mike Williams and Sidney Rice are proven targets at
wide receiver and Zach Miller/John Carlson form one of the best
tight end duos in the league. I wouldn’t spend too much for
Whitehurst, but in deeper leagues or two-QB leagues, he’d
certainly be worth a late-round look.
Running Backs
1.
Michael Bush, OAK: For the purposes of this exercise, I’m focusing
on backs who, though firmly entrenched in a subsidiary role, will
likely be around in the latter stages of your draft and could potentially
carry the load should injury befall the main man. In other words,
I’m ignoring the job-share guys (e.g. Brandon Jacobs, Mike Tolbert,
Jonathan Stewart). Bush, who I’ve already lauded in a
previous article, looks to be the most capable of these potential
load-carriers because…well, he is a load (6’1”, 245 pounds). Befitting
a man that size, he can deliver a blow, can move the pile, and can
withstand the rigors of a 25+-carry outing (which he’s actually
done several times already). He’s also surprisingly athletic/nimble
for a bigger back and an above-average pass receiver. Or maybe it’s
not all that surprising when you consider he came to Louisville
to play quarterback! Simply put, there aren’t many guys with his
combination of size and skill in the league, starter or backup.
For this reason, Bush has proven to be a wonderful complement to
Darren
McFadden in Oakland.
Naturally, his chances of playing more than a supporting role rely
almost entirely on Mr. McFadden. Many are predicting big things
for the former Razorback in this, his fourth season, but I’m
not especially optimistic. He’s never played a full season
(not even close, actually) and he’s already missed the first
two preseason games this summer. McFadden flew off the board in
my most recent draft (Round 1 of a keeper league) and I could hardly
wait to nab his backup in Round 8. Even if DMC defies the laws of
running back gravity, Bush is an above-average bye week replacement
and TD poacher I’m glad to have on my squad.
2.
Ben Tate, HOU: Is it odd I’m suggesting you draft guys backing
up two of the most valuable fantasy assets, Darren McFadden and
Arian
Foster, and not necessarily for the purposes of handcuffing
them to those studs? A fair point, yes, but consider that during
the early stages of training camp last year, Tate and Foster were
running neck and neck and looked, for all intents and purposes,
like a burgeoning running back tandem. Alas, the second-rounder
broke his ankle, the undrafted free agent grabbed the spotlight
all to himself, and the rest is recent fantasy football history.
Tate is back and though he’s currently listed third on the
Houston depth chart, you wouldn’t have known it by watching
his first game action in over a year this past weekend (nine carries
for 95 yards and a touch). He looked blazingly fast (still), shifty,
and every bit the part of a starting-caliber running back against
the Saints. More importantly, should he assume a more prominent
role, he’d be running behind one of the best offensive lines
in the entire league. I’m obviously not privy to what Coach
Kubes and company have in store for the Auburn product this year,
but they surely want to protect their meal ticket and, in Tate,
they may have found their guy. I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll
supplant Derrick Ward as the #2 option behind Foster by opening
day, if not sooner, and could be in line to grab some touches right
out of the shoot come September.
3.
DeMarco Murray, DAL: Like Tate, Murray was drafted to compete
almost immediately for carries. Unlike Tate, he may actually get
the chance to do so in his rookie season, though he hasn’t seen
the field yet thanks to a nagging hamstring injury. Nevertheless,
when he does, I suspect he’ll confirm why the Cowboys were so high
on him to begin with and why they were so quick to part ways with
Marion
Barber III this past off-season.
The former Sooner is roughly the same size as his counterpart, Felix
Jones , although slightly taller. He’s also, believe it or not,
just as fast if not a hair faster. He isn’t likely to be the human
battering ram MBIII was but that’s probably a good thing. If it’s
true a running back’s body has only so many hits in it, Barber has
been living on borrowed time for a couple seasons now. Actually,
Murray may be too—the one warning sign—as he was consistently dinged
up in college and, arguably, overused by an Oklahoma staff that
didn’t have a lot of other weapons at the position. In fact, Bob
Stoops et al. were so intent on getting Murray the ball, he caught
a staggering 71 passes his senior year. The dude’s a running back,
I’ll remind you.
Murray’s ability as a receiver means he’ll probably
see the field plenty on third downs. The other way he’ll prove
his worth is if Jones proves incapable of handling an increased
workload, something he’s basically never demonstrated in college
or the NFL. In fact, he’s only carried it more than 20 times
in an NFL game once in a three-year career (Week 13 last season).
Just something to think about if you’re high on the other
former Razorback.
Wide Receivers
1.
James Jones, GB: Most predicted Jones to be starting by now
and he certainly would be if he’d flown the Lambeau coop for another
opportunity this past off-season. Alas, he literally couldn’t due
to the lockout and then a post-lockout glut of free agents softened
the demand for his services almost overnight. Thus, Jones returns
to Green Bay in 2011, much
to the delight of Aaron Rodgers, where he’ll continue to play
third fiddle to Greg
Jennings and the ageless Donald
Driver. Or is that fourth fiddle?
I was perusing the ADP numbers this past week and noticed Jones
was being selected a full three rounds later than his teammate,
Jordy Nelson (13.05 v. 10.05). Uh, you’re all aware Jones
outperformed Nelson by a significant margin in the regular season
last year, right? That means more receptions, more yards, and over
twice as many touchdowns. Sure, Nelson trumped him (and every other
Pack receiver) in the playoffs, but if I had to bank on one of them
replacing Driver should the grizzled vet reach the end of the line
sometime this season, it would be Jones. Yes, he dropped too many
passes last year, several of them sure touchdowns. He also managed,
despite playing a secondary role, to rank in the top 20 for red
zone targets. When you can get a favorite red-zone target of Green
Bay’s ace hurler roughly three rounds later than a statistically
similar or even inferior player…well, what are you waiting
for?
2.
Dezmon Briscoe, TB: I’m probably cheating a bit here since Briscoe
is currently running with the first string due to Arrelious
Benn's slow recovery from a torn ACL. Nonetheless, Benn is projected
to be ready by the start of the season and will most likely assume
the role of #2 man behind Mike Williams in the Tampa passing game
sooner rather than later. That leaves Briscoe on the outside looking
in…
…but not as far outside as you’d think. The Bucs did
something highly unusual with the former Jayhawk when he was released
by the Bungles last season, signing him to their practice squad
but paying him the league minimum, something they weren’t
required to do. That speaks volumes about how highly they value
the young wideout. Moreover, thanks to the emergence of young triggerman,
Josh Freeman, the once moribund Bucs offense is now more balanced
and, potentially, a lot more dynamic. Since third wide receivers
typically only matter when they suit up for teams capable of moving
the football, Briscoe appears to be emerging at precisely the same
time his offense is emerging. He’s prepared, in other words,
and the opportunity is simultaneously presenting itself.
Sure, his six total NFL grabs will be difficult for more risk-averse
GMs to overlook. And while I agree it’s too small of a sample
size upon which to base grand expectations, Briscoe has already
demonstrated above-average route-running skills and a precocious
ability to go get the football, especially in jump-ball situations
with smaller defenders. If Benn struggles upon his return to live
action, don’t be surprised to see Briscoe running with the
first team for an extended period of time. Not bad for a guy that,
by all accounts, isn’t even being drafted in standard leagues.
3.
Dexter McCluster, KC: Is he a backup receiver, a backup running
back, or a little bit of both? Does it matter? McCluster was hampered
by a high ankle sprain his rookie season but appeared, even before
he got hurt, to be criminally under-utilized by outgoing offensive
coordinator, Charlie Weis. No, he’s not big and probably can’t handle
the punishment of 20+ touches consistently. The guy’s 5’8” and weighs
175 dripping wet, after all. Still, he’s an electrifying player
who probably should have been given more of an opportunity in 2010.
Fast-forward to 2011. The Chiefs have moved him back to his more
natural running back spot and intend to get him “four or five” touches
in the running game and the passing game, according to Coach Haley.
I’m no math whiz, but…wouldn’t you be happy with ten touches from
an NFL backup who qualifies at the receiver position? Actually,
I’m just now trying to figure out why I didn’t take a late-round
stab at McCluster myself! This has long been an exploitable loophole
in the college fantasy world (think Randall Cobb or Michael Robinson)
but very rarely at the NFL level. Unless your league has strict
positional eligibility requirements, you may be able to sneak one
by your league mates. Also, if the ADP numbers are any indication,
it isn’t going to cost you much more than a very late draft pick.
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