Call me strange (you wouldn’t be the first), but my favorite
part of a fantasy draft – especially in my larger, deeper
leagues – is always the very last part, when my fellow GMs
are too busy pounding brewskis or hurling insults to think about
which NFL backups they should be adding to their benches. That’s
all we’ve usually got left to select from at that point in
the proceedings and I can practically read their minds: “These
guys barely matter to their OWN teams, so how are they going to
matter to MINE?” I hope you never figure this out, guys, but…backups
ALWAYS end up mattering. 47 different quarterbacks, for instance,
started games in 2012, the lowest number in years (it was 56 the
year prior and 62 in 2010), but still more than the 32 which everyone
seems to pretend will start games on draft day. And that’s
just one position. Backups may be inherently less valuable than
starters (duh), but they sure become valuable in a hurry when they
stop being the former and start being the latter.
What follows is a short list of current NFL backups who I think,
given an injury here or a poor performance there could end up making
a big splash this season. Get ‘em while they’re not
so hot and you may put your squad over the top somewhere down the
line.
Quarterbacks
Nick
Foles, PHI: Michael
Vick was recently handed the keys to Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia
experiment and this Duck fan, for one, couldn’t be happier. Vick
– with apologies to Cam
Newton, Robert
Griffin III, and Colin
Kaepernick – is still the quintessential dual-threat demon who
running Chipper’s version of the spread could bring revolution to
the professional game. He’s got the game’s best set of wheels at
the position, a big time wing, and will be working with some very
talented teammates (e.g., LeSean
McCoy and DeSean
Jackson). That’s the good news. Here’s the bad: He’s played
16 games precisely one time in nine NFL seasons.
Foles would seem to be the proverbial square peg in Coach Kelly’s
round hole of an offense, but I think that’s a misconception
born of a much grander misconception people have about the offense
in general: namely, that it will look exactly like it did in Eugene.
Yes, the Ducks ran the ball all over the place the last five years.
Wouldn’t you if you were squaring off against pillowy soft
Pac-12 defenses every week? When squared off against a grown man
Auburn defense in the 2010 BCS Championship and a nastier LSU crew
in the 2011 opener, they threw 40 and 54 passes, respectively.
The Eagles, like those Duck teams, will take exactly what defenses
give them, run or pass. What will make them unique is how often
they do that. New England almost set a record for most plays from
scrimmage in 2011 borrowing many of Kelly’s concepts. Now
that he’s joined the league, the record is positively imperiled.
If Foles gets a turn in Philly – and Vick’s injury history
suggests he will – he’s going to be leading a team that
equates quality with quantity. Nobody appreciates quantity more
than fantasy GMs.
Ryan
Fitzpatrick, TEN: There are basically three reasons a
backup QB sees the field in the NFL. We just touched on the first
(injury) and we’ll touch on the third soon (novelty), but the second
is why I’m touting Fitzpatrick: plain old poor performance. With
the possible exception of Christian
Ponder or whoever starts Week 1 for the Jets, nobody starts
the 2013 campaign on a shorter leash than Jake
Locker, Tennessee’s immensely talented but maddeningly inconsistent
young quarterback.
The Titans selected Locker back in 2011 (eighth overall) despite
serious concerns about his decision-making and accuracy. No doubt,
the Tennessee brass were beguiled by elite athleticism and a rocket
launcher of a right arm, gifts which would likely have made him
the very first selection a year prior had he entered the draft.
Unfortunately, Locker’s done nothing in his first two years
to dispel those initial concerns and has rarely justified his lofty
draft position, let alone an even loftier number one selection.
He’s turned it over more times than he’s thrown TD passes
in 16 career appearances (still making bad decisions) and his completion
percentage sits well below the NFL Mendoza line (still inaccurate).
Locker has time, of course, to mature into a legit NFL triggerman…but
not much time. Bud Adams is 90 and impatient for a winner. That’s
primarily why the Titans spent a TON of money this off-season (and
several high draft picks) upgrading a porous offensive line and
a thin receiving corps. No more excuses, in other words. Oh, and
they threw some of that dough at a turnkey backup should Locker
ultimately fail to deliver. Fitzpatrick was never great in Buffalo,
granted, but he’s started 67 career games and averaged close
to 24 TD tosses the past three seasons. In other words, he’s
a good bet to both play and produce at some point.
Terrelle
Pryor, OAK: Matt
Flynn hasn’t played nearly enough to be considered a persistent
injury risk and we really don’t know how well he’ll perform given
that he’s started exactly two games in five seasons. All we know
is that he’s safely ensconced as the starter in Oakland for now
and, if he survives behind an unsettled front line, for the foreseeable
future. That doesn’t mean Pryor will necessarily be relegated to
clipboard duty all season. On the contrary, Raiders’ offensive coordinator
Greg Olson seems determined to find a way to get the unusually talented
former Buckeye on the field one way or another.
It’s probably not fair to label Pryor a mere novelty act in
the Tebow Time tradition. He’s a more explosive athlete (sub-4.4
speed), has a rifle for an arm, and demonstrates great touch on
deep balls (an Oakland staple, of course). Plus, his mechanics,
though sub-standard, are nowhere near as unsightly as Tebow’s.
In other words, he’s an actual quarterback – albeit
an unpolished one – who wouldn’t require a completely
customized scheme to succeed. That said a completely customized
scheme is exactly what the Raiders may have in store for him this
year.
And why shouldn’t they? Would a Terrelle Pryor “package”
really be any more unusual than what the Raiders’ Bay Area
neighbors did with Colin Kaepernick last season before Alex Smith
went down for good and…well, you know how that one turned
out. I’m not predicting Pryor will be this year’s Kaepernick,
mind you. I’m just saying he’s similarly talented (maybe
even more so) and has similarly unproven talent ahead of him on
the depth chart. If Flynn goes down or gets the boot, it’ll
be a land grab for Pryor. Why not get him earlier while he’s
still cheap?
Running Backs
Stepfan
Taylor, ARI: I’m going to spend a couple hundred words
explaining why Taylor should intrigue you, but here are four that
paint the picture if you’re short on time and want to skip ahead:
“Rashard
Mendenhall” and “Ryan
Williams.” If those two guys are ahead of you on a depth chart,
you have a chance to be very relevant very soon. The former wore
out his welcome in Pittsburgh following an impressive three-year
stretch (two 1,000-yard seasons and one near-miss). The latter will
reach 1,000 yards for his career sometime in the 2023 season at
his current pace.
Taylor doesn’t wow with speed or athletic ability. That’s
how a decorated stud from Stanford ends up getting drafted in the
fifth round. What the former Cardinal brings to the Cardinals is
great vision, patience, a sturdy frame (he had the fourth most carries
in the FBS last season), and an aptitude/appetite for pass blocking,
something most rooks sorely lack. Oh, and he’s not too shabby
as a receiver. Basically, he’s a lot of things the other two
guys (and former Cardinal Beanie Wells) aren’t. Yes, he lacks
great upside and general pizzazz. We’re talking about an offense
that ranked dead last in rushing yards last year and by a pretty
sizeable margin. Wouldn’t the Cards take boring and reliable
over exciting and unpredictable at this point?
Don’t’ underrate that pass protection bit, by the way.
Other than turning the ball over, an inability to chip in on passing
plays is the quickest way to the bench in the NFL, a predominantly
pass-heavy league. And in a pass-heavy league, the Cards are about
to become one of its most pass-heavy teams under Bruce Arians. I’m
betting Taylor will play soon and could carve out a bigger role
than some envision.
DuJuan
Harris, GB: This is technically cheating since the Pack’s
official depth chart still lists Harris as the #1 guy, just as it
did when the season ended on the Candlestick turf last January (not
over it). Most fantasy GMs are treating rookie Eddie
Lacy’s promotion to that post as a fait accompli, so for all
intents and purposes, Harris is being TREATED like a backup. Maybe
even as the backup to the assumed backup (Johnathan
Franklin).
Lacy is certainly a physical specimen who Pack fans (present company
included) are hoping will seize the lead back role. And he should.
He’s very sturdily built and runs with brutish force, but
has surprisingly nimble feet and owns a wicked spin move. He looked
great in his preseason debut, every bit like a feature back, actually.
Feature backs aren’t always complete backs however, and Lacy
isn’t an exception. He’s not a great pass blocker (remember
what I said above) and isn’t particularly experienced as a
pass receiver either. In other words, he’s not great in the
passing game, something the Packers are…uh…kinda known
for.
This is where Harris comes in should he ultimately lose out to the
Alabama rook. The undrafted former Troy Trojan and used car salesman
ignited the Pack’s moribund ground game last year with a scintillating
blend of speed and jitterbugging athleticism, scoring four TDs in
the final six games. Perhaps he was just a sight for sore eyes,
but it was clear from his first action that he brought something
totally different to the table. He still does and for that reason,
he’s not worth completely ignoring on draft day. Johnathan
Franklin, by the way, is. Here’s what one personnel guy had
to say about him: "…if you didn't know he was a draft
pick, you'd think he was a free agent." Ouch.
Bell, not Leshoure should be on your backup
plan.
Joique
Bell, DET: Only a handful of teams ran the ball less
in 2012 than the pass-happy Lions, so it would seem like an odd
choice to endorse Bell, the ostensible third-stringer in Detroit.
Guess it’s time to hit the stats, eh? The Wayne State product (and
one-time Harlon Hill Trophy winner…think Heisman but on a smaller
scale) actually carried the ball 82 times last season, more than
all of the following individuals, solid backups on everyone’s radar
: Danny
Woodhead, Andre
Brown, Ben
Tate and Shane
Vereen. He also accumulated more receiving yardage than all
those backs, as well…and every other back in the league not named
Darren
Sproles or Marcel Reece. Surprised? I was too until I remembered
Matt Stafford threw the ball an unconscionable 727 times last year.
SOMEBODY had to catch all those passes!
Bell isn’t getting much love this preseason if his ADP is
any indication. He doesn’t have one, actually. Every other
guy I just mentioned (and a guy I mentioned above, Johnathan Franklin)
does. I’m not entirely sure how the third most productive
receiver at the running back position becomes untouchable simply
because Detroit adds another running back in free agency, Reggie
Bush (one-time winner of the actual Heisman…kind of). Sure,
their skill sets overlap somewhat, but Bush has never carried the
ball even 250 times in a season and barely handled 50% of Miami’s
total carries in 2012. That’s the first time, by the way,
he’s ever been responsible for more than 50% of his team’s
carries. If he leaves 40% of the carries to someone else in Motown,
why wouldn’t it be Bell? I’m guessing Mr. Bush was brought
in as an upgrade to the one-dimensional Mikel LeShoure and not the
multi-dimensional Joique Bell. Expect similar digits in 2013 and
even more if Bush misses any time (as he has before).
Wide Receivers
Rueben
Randle, NYG: I’ve gone almost an entire column without
tooting my own horn, but I’m suddenly feeling like a little walk
down memory lane. Up for it? In this
very piece last year, I touted not one but tworeceivers who
went from relatively unknown at the time I wrote about them to very
much known by season’s end. The first was Randall
Cobb, the Pack’s Swiss Army knife who exploded onto the scene
and became the league’s 17th most productive wideout. The second
was T.Y.
Hilton, Indy’s surprise rookie breakout who, even more surprisingly,
ended the year as the 25th most productive receiver. For the sake
of full disclosure, the third receiver I endorsed – and the one
I completely whiffed on – was none other than…Rueben
Randle. Ha!
I’d like to think I was just a year early in predicting the
young Giant’s emergence. The truth is that, though he was
certainly gifted enough to contribute right away from a physical
standpoint, he wasn’t mentally ready to handle Kevin Gilbride’s
complex scheme with its multiple sight-read adjustments and route
options. This shouldn’t have been too surprising, actually,
since he came from a very rudimentary system at LSU. And even though
he was apparently lost in 2012, he still demonstrated a couple flashes
of brilliance (Week 5 against Cleveland and a two-TD day to close
out the regular season).
I expect plenty more of those flashes now that Domenic Hixon has
signed on with Carolina and cleared the way for the talented Randle
to be the #3 guy in New York. We all know how sweet a spot that
has proven to be, but it may not even be the ceiling for Randle
this campaign. Hakeem Nicks is entering his fifth season and hasn’t
once played all 16 games.
Markus
Wheaton, PIT: If Randle’s the Cobb-esque breakout candidate
for the 2013 season, Wheaton’s this year’s version of T.Y. Hilton.
The former Beaver ended up sliding into the third round of April’s
draft, probably because he ran a solid, but not sublime 4.45 40-yard
dash at the combine, just average for a receiver on the smallish
side (he’s 5’11” and 185 pounds dripping wet). Take it from someone
who’s watched him up close and personal these last several years;
he’s faster than that. In fact, one website scouting service compared
him favorably to a speed demon Steelers fans should be pretty familiar
with: Mike Wallace.
Wallace’s departure is primarily the reason Pittsburgh needed
Wheaton in the first place and also why I like him to contribute
right out of the gate. If a rookie receiver could be stepping into
a perfect situation, he seems to be doing it. The Steelers don’t
have a lot of proven talent left at the position other than Antonio
Brown (two solid but unspectacular seasons) and Emmanuel Sanders
(a first-time starter in this, his fourth season), and the youngster
is almost assured of being no worse than the #3 guy right away.
That’s not a bad thing to be when Big Ben is the one delivering
footballs.
The recent injury to Pittsburgh’s other prized noob, Le’Veon
Bell, is another reason to be excited about Wheaton’s prospects.
Minus Bell, the Curtain’s going to be forced to rely heavily
on some running backs that, to put it kindly, aren’t terribly
reliable (Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, etc.). I think it’s
safe to say that through the season’s first several weeks,
they could be “dinking and dunking” a lot more than
they intended to. Get Wheaton late if the secret’s not already
out before then.
Keenan
Allen, SD: Back in October 2011, I decided at the last
minute to drive down to Eugene with Pop and catch my Ducks in person
(I wasn’t a season ticket holder then). Three things stand out clearly
when I think back on that game: 1) It was raining hard, something
the Ducks’ venerable PA announcer famously promises never happens
(even as it’s happening); 2) The boys debuted the “Puddles” jersey
for the nationally televised contest; and 3) Keenan Allen. The stud
receiver WAS the Cal offense that evening as he hauled in nine receptions
for 170 yards and a score. What’s crazy is that every one of the
nearly 60,000 folks in the stadium knew he was going to be the intended
recipient of almost every pass thrown…and he still couldn’t be stopped.
Allen is unquestionably a first-round talent who slipped in the
draft due to concerns about his knee. Thus, he’s already buyer
beware before he’s even played a game. But…oh, that
talent. He’s big (6’2” and 200+), strong, very
quick, has superb hands and is basically everything you’re
looking for in a #1 receiver except maybe elite downfield speed.
I’m not sure that last part matters however, because he’s
extremely elusive and will run right through poorly executed tackles.
Why I specifically like him this year is because he’s landed
in a great situation. In case you haven’t noticed, the Chargers
have a wide receiver problem. Like, a big one. Danario Alexander
is gone right when we were warming up to him. Robert Meachem might
be the most overpaid wideout in the game. Malcom Floyd is…well,
he’s Malcom Floyd. Meh. If Allen can stay healthy and earn
some looks from Philip Rivers, he could easily become the Bolts’
most important pass-grabber and in very short order. He’s
a steal late in the draft if you have the room on your bench.
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