Ready or not, let’s take a look at last year’s leaders,
along with those 2013 stars who fell by the wayside, and see if
we can pinpoint potential underachievers for this upcoming season.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
The 2014 class of running back dropouts, just like their 2013 counterparts,
weren’t content with a mere backstep toward the mediocre middle.
Excepting LeSean McCoy, who stayed very relevant, they collectively
turned tail and sprinted toward fantasy oblivion. Even if you include
Shady’s 11th place ranking, these foundering five managed
to rank, on average, 63rd overall at the position. Yup, you read
that right: 63rd! FYI: Dan Herron was 62nd.
McCoy was the only respectable back of the bunch, almost avoiding
mention in this column entirely (a mere 10 points behind Jeremy
Hill). His was still a discouraging drop since he’d ranked
second overall the year prior, but not nearly as discouraging as
what happened soon after that drop, when the Eagles abruptly traded
him for second-year linebacker Kiko Alonso. It was an ugly divorce
that got much uglier when McCoy started throwing around allegations
about Chip Kelly’s motives. Circle you calendars for December
13th if you enjoy juicy grudge matches.
Moreno and Peterson, in the meantime, missed the Top 10 mark by
a couple of country miles, the former in traditional fashion (early-season
injury) and the latter in truly bizarre fashion (a Week 2 banishment
due to abuse allegations). Moreno is now looking for work and Peterson
is, just as bizarrely, right back in Minnesota and ready to roll.
Johnson and Bush might be rolling toward irrelevance if 2014 is
any indication. Johnson played all 16 games, per the usual (he’s
only missed one in seven seasons), but failed to tally 1,000 yards
for the very first time. Bush, on the other hand, missed several
games (also per the usual) and notched the second fewest points
of his career. Though he’s now out of Joique Bell’s
shadow in Detroit, his reduced role probably won’t change
out in San Francisco.
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from
the Top 10 This Year:
Over the last four years, 68 percent of
RBs failed to retain their top ten status from the previous
season.
Arian
Foster, HOU: Every summer, I scan the list of Top 10
backs from the previous year and wonder how any of them could spiral
to such unfathomable depths, as detailed above. The thing is, though,
that’s been very much the rule and not the exception of late. In
the last four seasons, a total of 27 backs have failed to retain
their Top 10 status from one year to the next. That would be 27
out of a possible 40, if you’re scoring at home, or almost 68%!
I can safely guarantee there will be more dropouts come next August
than we’re devoting space to this August.
So why Arian Foster? To be honest, I don’t have a ton of hard
science to support this selection. Though it seems he’s been
toiling as one of the NFL’s preeminent rock toters for about
a decade, he turns just 29 in late August and has only spent five
seasons as a full-time starter. On the other hand, he’s also
made it through only two of those seasons completely unscathed and
has already missed 14 games to injury during that same five-season
span. If we know one thing about running backs, it’s definitely
this: They don’t get healthier the longer they play.
The other thing that worries me about Foster, this season specifically
is the skill position talent surrounding him in Houston. The depth
chart at quarterback currently reads Hoyer, Mallett, and Savage.
And you thought Ryan Fitzpatrick was a stopgap solution? The Texans
also parted ways with long-time stud Andre Johnson, the only bona
fide receiving threat they had for most of the past 13 seasons (until
DeAndre Hopkins emerged in 2014). I’m somehow doubting free agent
pickup Cecil Shorts will be able to fill the vacuum created by Johnson’s
departure.
Justin
Forsett, BAL: It’s not often a back goes from journeyman
backup to Top 10 stud in his seventh NFL season. While Forsett seemed
to be an overnight sensation in 2014, that appellation is only half
accurate. He was clearly sensational (1,529 total yards from scrimmage
and eight scores) and almost singlehandedly crushed my championship
aspirations (a 182-yard, two-TD bombing of the Saints in Week 12).
It didn’t, however, happen overnight. Six years of blood, sweat,
and tears went into that 2014 breakout performance.
The tragedy, of course, is that Forsett turns 30 soon, the age at
which most backs are breaking down, not hitting their stride. He
has fewer miles on his tires than most, but he seems unlikely to
be sustainably successful at such an advanced age. Moreover, Gary
Kubiak, whose zone-blocking scheme was a perfect fit for the diminutive
but powerful Forsett, has moved on to Denver. Though incoming coordinator
Marc Trestman swears the scheme won’t change, it’s unusual
for a coach not to incorporate some of his own principles into an
existing system.
Which brings us to the primary reason I think Forsett will struggle
to reproduce his stellar 2014: Javorius “Buck” Allen. The Ravens
drafted the former USC Trojan in the fourth round of this past April’s
draft primarily because of his advanced pass-catching and pass-blocking
skills. It doesn’t take a genius to recognize Trestman’s influence
on this decision since his favorite thing to do, if last year is
any indication, is throw footballs to his running backs. Matt Forte
led all running backs with 102 receptions last season and nobody
else was even close. Not that Allen will necessarily be a mere third-down
specialist. He’s a solid, patient runner who stands four inches
taller and weighs 25 pounds more than Forsett. The Buck starts here?
Lamar
Miller, MIA: Miller finally came into his own in 2014,
setting career highs in carries, yards, yards per carry, rushing
touchdowns, receptions, receiving touchdowns, and…well, pretty
much every category there is to set a career high in. Put simply,
he became the running back the Dolphins thought they were drafting
back in 2012. So how did they reward him for finally providing a
solid return on that initial investment? They drafted Jay Ajayi,
a talented back from Boise State, and made no attempt to expedite
new contract negotiations with the soon-to-be free agent, Miller.
This probably shouldn’t come as a surprise when you consider
who’s calling the shots in South Florida. Running the football
is more necessary evil than essential ingredient in Joe Philbin’s
offense. In fact, the Dolphins’ run play percentage ranked
just 29th in 2013 and 24th last year, even despite Miller’s
emergence. If running backs have become more or less replaceable
parts in most NFL offenses, they seem to be downright fungible in
the Miami offense. Why pay big bucks to one guy, after all, when
you can just draft a cheaper replacement every three or four years
and get similar production?
It’s not a terrible or even unique business model (think Patriots),
but it sure makes handicapping fantasy performances a dodgy proposition
for us. If I had to choose between a guy like Miller this year or
a guy like Mark Ingram, who recently extended in New Orleans but
didn’t perform to the same level in 2014, it would be a really
tough call. The fact I’m even contemplating Miller v. Ingram
should tell you how I really feel about the former’s overall
fantasy value. Don’t ignore Miami’s current meal ticket
come draft day, but please don’t treat him like a RB1. He’s
just too risky.
