Ready or not, let’s take a look at last year’s leaders,
along with those 2013 stars who fell by the wayside, and see if
we can pinpoint potential underachievers for this upcoming season.
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
Maybe it would make more sense to try and identify the receivers
I think WILL maintain Top 10 status instead of those who won’t,
huh? It would surely make for a more challenging exercise. Only
three pass-grabbers renewed their club membership in 2014, a not
atypically small group. Those who dropped out did so for pretty
much the same reasons receivers always drop out: bad health, bad
quarterback play, or a combination of both.
Josh Gordon was mostly spared bad quarterback play last season,
but not because Cleveland’s triggermen were any great shakes.
It’s because he spent the majority of 2014 serving a(nother)
drug suspension. He’s since been re-suspended (at least a
year) and if I were a betting man, I’d say we never hear from
him again.
We’ll definitely hear from Megatron again because he’s
the best receiver since Randy Moss in his prime. He does need to
maintain his health, however, and become a more frequent visitor
to the end zone. It would help if his battery mate were a lot less
erratic. Same goes for A.J. Green, on both fronts. The Bengals’
primary passing game weapon missed three games in 2014 and also
made too few trips to the promised land, thanks to Andy Dalton’s
downright unsightly quarterback play.
Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were both victimized by spotty
quarterbacking in Chicago, but the latter only missed the Top 10
by 19 yards. Seriously. Marshall wasn’t even in the neighborhood,
missing three games and posting his worst fantasy totals since 2010.
He’ll start over with the New York Jets, his fourth team in
seven years.
Marshall will team up in Gotham with Eric Decker who, like DeSean
Jackson, learned a valuable NFL lesson: Free agency can make one
very rich, but it can also make one very irrelevant.
Most Likely Candidates to Fall from
the Top 10 This Year:
Sanders will be a marked man by defenses
in 2015.
Emmanuel
Sanders, DEN: Sanders, Decker’s Denver replacement, was
easily the most surprising Top 10 receiver of 2014. After four years
of relatively modest production in Pittsburgh, he exploded for over
100 receptions and 1,400 yards as a Bronco, to go with nine TD snags.
Those were all career highs by far and fantasy owners might be inclined
to expect more of the same this season, especially with Julius Thomas
out of the picture. If my hunch about Peyton Manning is correct,
however, and Denver misses Thomas more than they think they will
(they will), Sanders could go from surprise overachiever to disappointing
underachiever practically overnight.
I’ve already told you why I think the Broncos might look drastically
different in 2015, but here’s a quick recap: Peyton Manning
is no spring chicken and Gary Kubiak really likes running the football.
That’s ostensibly why the Denver brass were willing to let
the uniquely talented Thomas walk, because he was more receiver
in a tight end’s body than an extra lineman who occasionally
catches passes (read: traditional TE). Though it might seem like
Sanders should benefit from the extra targets Thomas won’t
be there to receive, I’m inclined to think the opposite. Thomas
put a lot of pressure on defenses up the seams and that provided
the elusive Sanders with plenty of roaming room out on the flanks.
No Thomas = more attention on Sanders.
It’s also very likely that Denver will simply run far fewer plays
in 2014. Coach Kubiak is vowing to stick with the no-huddle and
“Omaha,” but more running plays almost always means fewer total
plays. And when Manning is slinging it around like the old days,
you can bet he’ll still primarily be looking for Demaryius Thomas,
the guy John Elway just inked to a fat new contract.
Jeremy
Maclin, KC: In this exact same column last year, I predicted
DeSean Jackson would fall out of the fantasy Top 10 because he was
transitioning from Philadelphia’s muscle car offense to Washington’s
grocery-getter offense. It happened. Then, I doubled down a couple
weeks later by predicting that his replacement, Jeremy Maclin, would
take Jackson’s place in the Top 10 for 2014. That also happened.
Still questioning my Shot Caller credentials, are we?
OK, so it wasn’t exactly prophetic to suggest Jackson’s
numbers would dip and Maclin’s would surge. That’s the
effect Chip Kelly’s unorthodox scheme has had on fantasy production.
Maclin’s about to find out how the other half lives, however,
because, like Jackson before him, he’s moved on from the City
of Brother Love after just one year as Chipper’s passing game
centerpiece. The separation wasn’t nearly as contentious this
time, but the net effect on Maclin’s bottom line could be
much more significant. This is the same Kansas City team, mind you,
that somehow managed to play 16 football games in 2014 without registering
a single TD reception by a wide receiver. In case you’re wondering,
no team had accomplished that since the New York Giants did it.
In 1964.
I’d bet my life savings Maclin or one of his cohorts ends
that drought early in the 2015 season, but the former Mizzou product
will be hard-pressed to tally 10 receiving scores playing for his
old coach, Andy Reid. That’s how many he had last season,
or exactly 10 more than any KC receiver did. The Chiefs play much
slower than the Eagles (more than 10 fewer offensive snaps per game)
and Alex Smith is still under center. That’s my way of saying
you should treat Maclin as no better than a low-end WR2 this year.
T.Y.
Hilton, IND: Hilton had the good sense to join the Colts
organization right as Andrew Luck’s career was taking off
and, more importantly, right as Reggie Wayne’s was winding
down. The cannon-armed Luck is one of the few NFL quarterbacks who
can consistently take advantage of Hilton’s top-end speed.
Moreover, because nobody has adequately replaced Wayne’s production
on the other side of the field, Hilton commands the lion’s
share of passing game targets in Indianapolis.
All of that might change in 2015 now that the Colts have gone and
added a receiving great to the mix. Andre Johnson, who spent the
last 13 years in Houston, should become for Luck what Hilton, despite
his tremendous production, probably never could be: a red-zone menace.
Hilton has topped the 130-target mark and the 1,000-yard threshold
two years running, sure, but he still lags in the most important
category, receiving touchdowns. He was a respectable 19th overall
at the position last year, but just 31st the year prior. Most of
what we get from Hilton, in other words, is catches and yardage,
the former a meaningless stat in non-PPR leagues.
I’m not saying Hilton will become irrelevant because speed
like his (4.34 40-yard dash) doesn’t grow on trees. Or maybe
it does? The Colts also added Phillip Dorsett by way of April’s
draft and Dorsett, even more than Johnson, could threaten Hilton’s
status as the focal point of Indy’s downfield assault. The
former Hurricane ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at this year’s combine
and is almost precisely the same size as the established Hilton.
Perhaps the Colts are already peeking ahead to next summer when
Hilton becomes a free agent who will demand top compensation? If
you take very little else from this column, take this: Nothing is
forever in the NFL.
