OK, new assignment. I spent the past couple weeks talking about
players I think are overvalued and more likely than not to fall
out of the Top 10 this coming season. Now it’s time to discuss
the players I think have the best shot at replacing them. Some have
been there many times before and others would be making their first
appearance, but all of them would be outperforming their 2022 selves
should they prove me right. Also, full disclosure: Only two of them
have to do that for me to outperform MY 2022 self. LOL!?
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Aaron Rodgers,
NYJ: You can’t possibly know this because I fixed it right
away, but I absolutely typed “GB” next to his name in the first
draft of this article, forgetting momentarily Rodgers will be donning
a different green jersey this coming season. It was definitely time
for the Head Cheese to move on from the only NFL home he’s ever
known and I’m not overly saddened by the trade. Nevertheless, it
is going to be strange watching him sling pigskins around for another
team. Last year may have been his worst as a Packers’ starter (by
a whole lot), but there’s plenty of gas left in that tank and he
has a real chance, presuming good health, to post the Top 10 numbers
we’re more accustomed to in 2023.
One thing Rodgers has going for him in New York is a burgeoning
star at WR1. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett
Wilson, is coming off a 1000-yd season and looked like the Jets’
best WR since..??? The former Buckeye posted those numbers, mind
you, playing catch with a much worse Wilson (Zach), Mike White,
and Joe Flacco (somehow still in the league in 2022). He finished
as WR21 on the season and could have been much higher if he’d
caught more six-pointers, something he’ll almost certainly
do playing catch with Rodgers.
The Jets’ brass also surrounded its new star quarterback with
some of his favorite security blankets in Randall Cobb, Allen
Lazard, and OC Nathaniel Hackett. The latter took some serious
lumps in Denver last year and will likely never get another shot
as head man, but his résumé still includes the league’s top-scoring
offense (2020) and producer credit for Rodgers’ back-to-back MVP
seasons (2020 and 2021). 2021, as in two years ago. Don’t sleep
on A-A-ron.
Tua
Tagovailoa, MIA: I’ve probably asked
this before, but I’m asking again: Can you imagine how insane
this Miami offense would be with Justin Herbert throwing the passes?
The Fish opted for Tua back in the 2020 draft instead of Herbie,
falling in love with that Alabama pedigree and the uncommon precision
/ touch—he still holds the NCAA career record for passer efficiency
rating at 199.4—v. the Oregon great’s rocket launcher of a right
arm (GO DUCKS!). I think they probably regret that decision and
will never say it, but…
Tua provided a measure of vindication last season when he recorded
the second-best passer rating (the NFL equivalent of passer efficiency)
and led the Dolphins to eight wins in his first nine starts (he
missed Weeks 5 and 6). The bottom fell out from Week 13 on, granted,
but we’d seen enough by then to know that when healthy,
a huge caveat in Tua’s case, he’s absolutely capable
of orchestrating a great, not good, offense. And to be perfectly
clear here, I think Miami’s offense could be great in 2023.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form, arguably, the best and most
dangerous WR duo in the league. They’re complemented by
Raheem Mostert, a RB with home run power. Then, despite possessing
only four picks and other, more glaring team needs, the Dolphins
drafted Texas A&M’s Devon Achane in April’s draft,
another speed merchant who bested all other RBs at the Indy combine
with a 4.32-second 40-yd dash. For perspective, Cheetah posted
a 4.29 at his pro day back in 2016. It seems all Tagovailoa has
to do is stay upright and leverage that extremely accurate left
wing to make this offense sizzle. He’ll never be Herbert
but Miami can still win big with him. So can you.
Lamar
Jackson, BAL: The fact I’m
writing about Jackson again this August means he didn’t
do what I thought he’d do in 2022, “comfortably return”
to the Top 10. Injuries were again to blame as the former MVP
played only 12 games, the same number he’d played in the
slightly shorter 2021 season. The surest path to Top 10 status,
especially at the QB position, is staying healthy. Only two signal
callers of eight who played all 17 games last year didn’t
make the Top 10 and, oddly, they’re two of the most famous
flingers who ever lived, the aforementioned Rodgers and the now
retired Tom Brady.
Provided he can stay on the field more often, Jackson may be
just as famous one day. If that sounds hyperbolic, consider this:
He’s averaged 26.0 FPts/G as a full-time starter in Baltimore,
which is two points per game better than Rodgers and four points
per game better than Brady. Raw statistical output isn’t
everything, of course, and Jackson hasn’t even sniffed a
Super Bowl ring, let alone seven. It does speak to his insanely
high floor, though, which is what we really care about as fantasy
GMs. Jackson’s 22.9 FPts/G mark last year was his lowest
as a Raven, but was still good enough for fifth overall at the
position. Even when he’s bad, he’s good.
Everyone looked good in Todd Monken’s Georgia offenses
the past several years and now we get to see what he can do in
the bigs with one of the most athletic field generals the league
has ever known. Monken replaced long-time OC Greg Roman for 2023
and will no doubt tailor his attacking offense to Jackson’s
unique gifts. He’s also a fan of faster tempo. Sign me up
for Lamar going faster.
