Running Backs Most Likely to Rise in 2024:

Isiah Pacheco, KC: Derrick Henry led the league in carries last year with 280 (big surprise!). That’s the fewest number for a league leader since the NFL expanded to a 16-game season in 1978 and only the second time a league-leading total has dipped under 300 in that timeframe (Ernest Byner in 1990). Oh, and this includes the strike-marred 1987 season when replacement players siphoned off three games’ worth of stats from the best backs.

Despite this historic dip in usage rate, running backs are still very relevant in the NFL, especially for fake football purposes. It’s just the calculus that has changed. More of them matter than ever before, but the pool is now heavily diluted. A falling tide lowers all boats or...something like that. The trick in today’s game, therefore, is not so much to decide who will withstand the rigors of a 17-game season—it’s always gonna be that—but also who is least likely to bleed too many carries to his backup. All of which leads me, albeit circuitously, to Mr. Pacheco.

The almost comically hard-charging Rutgers product carried the ball 205 times last year, which was 35 more than he did the year prior when he played three more games. He also more than tripled his targets and receptions in 2023, suggesting the Chiefs don’t view him as an early-down back anymore, but a clear first chair who needs occasional blows. If you extrapolate Pacheco’s totals out to 17 games, his final tally would have looked something like this: 1,135 rushing yards, 296 receiving yards, and 11 scores. By comparison, Henry totaled 1,167 rushing yards, 214 receiving yards, and 12 TDs. When you compare favorably to Derrick Henry, even in the early winter of his stellar NFL career, you’re good enough in my book.

De’Von Achane, MIA: Of course, the other way to go is just to grab one of the most efficient running backs in NFL history and see what he’s capable of doing for an encore. Achane’s rookie campaign was nothing short of sensational. He carried the ball half as many times as Pacheco (103 to 205) and caught 17 fewer passes (27 to 44), but was only a six-pointer and a couple yards away from equaling his KC counterpart’s fantasy total. To recap, that’s 119 fewer touches but only 6.2 fewer fantasy points…than a guy who was pretty danged efficient himself (12.3 FPts/G)!

Achane’s 2023 totals aren’t sustainable by any stretch, which is why he’s showing up on every “do not draft” and “bust candidate” list out there. Nevertheless, I hafta wonder if the pundits flagging him for major regression have overcorrected here. Achane’s per-touch numbers probably can’t be replicated, but are we really expecting him to touch it fewer than 14 times a game? That’s how many he averaged per contest last year if we exclude the two early exits in Week 2 and Week 11. Let’s say the Dolphins decide, I dunno, he needs at least 15 every Sunday. Then let’s assume he plays 15 games. That’s 225 touches. Even if his points-per-touch rate dropped a full 30% from last year (from 1.27 to 0.95), he’d project to about 213 total points. For perspective, only four other RBs scored more than that in 2023.

I’m making a lot of assumptions there. I get it. But I think they’re reasonable ones and maybe even, in an epically explosive Miami offense, on the conservative side. This much is true: I spent more auction dollars on Achane than any other back and don’t regret it one bit.

Gus Edwards, LAC: I think I speak for the extended Duck family when I say Jim Harbaugh wouldn’t have been our first choice to coach Oregon legend Justin Herbert in his prime. Harbaugh’s a throwback to simpler football times when “establishing the run” and “controlling the line of scrimmage” meant everything. It worked at Michigan this past decade or so—and Harbaugh did us a solid by smoking hated Washington in the Natty—but the professional game has changed so much since he last paced an NFL sideline. Then again, he sports a nifty .695 NFL winning percentage, which ranks fifth all time behind such luminaries as John Madden, Vince Lombardi, and George Allen.

I’m willing enough to buy in that I grabbed Gus Edwards in my latest draft. Edwards played for Harbaugh’s big bro in Baltimore and is essentially the polar opposite of Achane. He’s much bigger, weighing 50 pounds more than the Dolphins’ speed merchant, and is a non-factor in the passing game. His 12 receptions were both a career high and a low for all RB1s in 2023. Put simply, he’s a bruiser rather than a burner, a guy who will grind out contested yards but is unlikely to break off a 40-yard run, something Achane did a staggering 11 times last season. And yet….

Edwards scored 13 rushing TDs last year, which was tied for third overall at the position. Anomalous or not, he’s moving to an offense where 10+ seems equally feasible. You’d also have to think he’s got a better than even shot of setting a career high in carries. He logged 198 last season, his best ever total, but 200+, with only oft-injured J.K. Dobbins and 6th-rounder Kimani Vidal behind him, also seems very achievable. Sign me up for Gus the Bus in 2024!