Now for the hard part… I told you last
summer my hit rate on Risers had really slumped in 2022 and
2023 (16%), but we’re back at par after a solid 2024 (four
out of nine for 44%, just north of my all-time rate of ~40% since
2011). This year’s crop features some obvious candidates and
a few less obvious ones. However, it’s never as easy as it
looks. Even when, say, a top three QB of all-time is poised to rise
up and reclaim his rightful glory, the messy business of controlled
NFL violence can doom his prospects. Quick spoiler alert: That all-timer
is not featured in this year’s edition of the Risers series,
though he’s mentioned. Let’s find out who else is well
positioned to leap into (or back into) the Top 10 ranks in 2025..
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Dak Prescott, DAL: He’s not Patrick Mahomes
obvious but Dak is still a fairly obvious choice to reclaim past
Top 10 glory. He’s merited that status five times in nine
NFL seasons and, with one exception (2018 - QB12), he’s
done it every time he’s played every game. Heck, he’s
even done it once when he didn’t (2021). When a guy is an
almost guaranteed Top 10 solution at the position and only injuries
have prevented him from being that in the past, you have to roll
those dice, right? Also, Dak’s been in the league for nine
years??? I’m getting old.
It’s, of course, fair to call out that Dallas’ franchise
man hasn’t been the healthiest option under center, missing
a whopping 26 games in that nine-year career. By comparison, the
aforementioned Mahomes has only missed five games since becoming
the full-time starter in 2018. It’s impossible to stay on
top if you aren’t playing, so…granted, there’s
always going to be risk attached to Prescott. He’s also
not the running threat he once was, which means he’ll have
to do the deed on the strength of that right wing. Luckily, most
of his season-shortening injuries have been below the shoulders.
Assuming Dak is able to slog through a tenth NFL campaign, he’s
got a suddenly stellar WR combo to play catch with. CeeDee Lamb
was the only real threat the last couple seasons but an elite
one. Add to Lamb the recently acquired George Pickens and the
Cowboys’ passing game is cooking with fire. Pickens’ flashes of
brilliance will have to be more than flashes in Big D for that
fire to roar. And he’ll have to grow up a little. But if that
happens AND Prescott stays upright, the latter will overdeliver
on his ADP of QB13.
Justin Herbert, LAC: Yes, I watched that disastrous
2024 playoff performance in Houston (14 of 32 and FOUR picks).
And yes, I’m fully aware Jim Harbaugh wants to win by running
the football first and foremost (keep reading). And yes, I’m
tracking the Bolts just lost their star Herbie backside protector,
Rashawn Slater, to a patellar tear (woof). Oh, and yes, I’m
a Ducks homer (and an unapologetic one at that!). All of these
things are true, gang, and I still can’t shake my faith
in that generational right cannon the born-and-raised Oregon product
possesses.
It should be noted, firstly, that LAC didn’t run the ball
more than they threw it in 2024, despite the run-first narrative
(510 passing v. 463 rushing attempts). This despite the fact they
fielded, arguably, a bottom three WR corps. Even with that paucity
of reliable options, Herbert threw for a respectable 23 TDs and
only three picks in the regular season, the fewest of any starting
quarterback. Yes, that means he threw more INTs in one playoff
game than he did in 17 other games (double woof).
Herbert’s targets this season look to be significantly
upgraded. Super soph Ladd McConkey leads the way still, but the
Chargers also welcomed back Keenan Allen this past week. In four
seasons playing with Herbert, the venerable Allen was regularly
a reliably high-end WR2 for fantasy GMs. Add to those two exciting
rooks Keandre Lambert-Smith and Tre Harris and…man, even
if Quentin Johnston can’t cure his case of butterfingers
or gets traded, there’s more to work with here than there
was a year ago. I also believe the revamped running game will
augment LAC’s upgraded passing game rather than overshadow
it. A good running game raises all boats, I’d argue, so
set sail with Herbie this coming season.
Justin Fields, NYJ: I warned you there’d
be some less obvious candidates. When the Jets and Steelers swapped
QBs this past off-season, it was difficult to say who got the
better end of the deal. The Curtain acquired an all-time quarterbacking
great, albeit one in a steep decline and likely playing his final
NFL season. The Jets, meanwhile, nabbed a much younger but less
successful dual threat who’s about to suit up for this third
squad in five years. Aaron Rodgers will probably take his real
Steelers farther than Fields could have. I’m very confident,
however, Fields will take your fantasy team to greater heights.
It’s easy to forget the former Buckeye was, as recently
as two years ago, a Top 10 fantasy producer. He averaged 22.8
FPts/G that 2023 season, finishing up as QB10 (and despite only
playing 15 of 17 games). In fact, if you exclude four brief appearances
last season in spot relief, he’s averaged 22.1 FPts/G since
2022. The guy we just talked about, though widely considered a
franchise stud for the Chargers, has averaged just 20.4 FPts/G
in that same timeframe.
What makes Fields such a high-risk / high-reward option is, of
course, his rushing ability. Though he’s amassed roughly
1,000 fewer career rushing yards than Aaron Rodgers, he’s
also played almost two HUNDRED fewer games. On a per game basis,
in fact, there’s only one QB in NFL history with a higher
yards/game average. That’s Lamar Jackson. Even Michael Vick
only averaged around 43 rushing yards/game, about 7 fewer than
Fields has thus far. He’s very much a work-in-progress passer,
granted, but he’s a constant threat to run in an offense
apparently designed for that superpower. I think the sky’s
the limit for Fields in 2025.