Nobody needs to be told
starting Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, or Calvin Johnson is a good
idea. Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position,
though, unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This
is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain
basement QB to use and which to ignore on Rodgers’ bye week?
Let’s talk. Looking for solutions at running back because
Foster is a game-time decision? Look no further. Need to know
which of your unproven targets to start and which to sit since
you ignored Megatron and went RB-QB-Gronkowski in your first three
rounds? I’m your huckleberry. Past results may not guarantee
future success, but I believe ignoring them entirely can ruin
your Sundays in a hurry. Read on for a little history and, hopefully,
a little sage advice.
Bye Weeks: N/A
Grab a Helmet
Alex
Smith @ GB: The top two quarterbacks selected in the
2005 draft have only faced each other a single time. Smith was
taken first that April while Aaron Rodgers famously sat in the
green room until he was named the 24th pick. You know how it’s
played out since: The former has slogged through seven mostly
unproductive seasons while the latter has become the most lethal
gunslinger in the game. Oddly, because of this last fact, I like
Smith to show well in the 2012 opener at Lambeau. The only way
to keep up with Rodgers, after all, is to score some points of
your own. This wasn’t particularly difficult for opponents to
do in 2011 as Green Bay ranked 32nd in total pass defense. That’s
last place, folks. If the extra firepower San Francisco acquired
in the offseason—Mario Manningham and noted Packer-killer Randy
Moss—come through, Smith could significantly improve upon last
year’s career-resurrecting numbers (3,144 yards and 17 TDs).
A tasty matchup for the Tennessee QB right
out of the gate.
Jake
Locker vs. NE: New England was the only team even close
to as crummy as the Packers at defending the pass last year (294
passing yards per game yielded). Though the Pats went defense with
almost every pick in this year’s draft, the secondary still looks
pretty similar to last year’s underwhelming group. Sound like a
perfect setup for a young signal caller’s starting debut? Yup. Locker
parlayed a strong training camp into the starting gig and now looks
to right the Titans’ ship after several lackluster seasons. He’ll
be missing a major weapon in Kenny Britt this weekend (due to a
league suspension) but still has reliable Nate Washington, up-and-coming
Jared Cook (a receiver trapped in a tight end’s body), and prized
rook Kendall Wright to throw to. Oh, and he has a guy standing right
behind him (Chris Johnson) whom the Patriots will need to account
for on every play. I think we’re about to see why Locker offered
good value on draft day.
Andrew
Luck @ CHI, Robert
Griffin III @ NO, or Russell
Wilson @ ARZ: You probably selected these guys as long-term
prospects in your keeper or dynasty league. Those of you in deeper
or two-QB leagues, however, may need their production right out
of the gate. Well, you’re in luck…so to speak. Mr. No. 1 Draft Pick
assumes the mantel from Indy legend Peyton Manning and heads to
Chicago for his professional debut this Sunday. Luck has looked
more ten-year vet than deer-in-the-headlights greenhorn this preseason
and will get plenty of opportunities to sling it in Bruce Arians’
pass-happy scheme. Meanwhile, RGIII heads to NOLA for a showdown
with the high-scoring Saints. It isn’t difficult to imagine lots
of points and a splashy debut for the former Heisman winner, who’s
looked similarly poised in the early going. Finally, Russell Wilson,
the most surprising of the five rookie starters at quarterback,
heads to Arizona. The former Badger snatched the Seattle job away
from presumed starter Matt Flynn by demonstrating innate leadership
qualities, uncanny accuracy, and natural play-making ability. In
other words, he’s a mash-up of the aforementioned gents crammed
into a body most scouts felt would be too small for the professional
game. By the way, they thought that about Drew Brees, as well.
Grab a Clipboard
Brandon
Weeden vs. PHI or Ryan
Tannehill @ HOU: Lest you think I’m too sanguine about
the rookie quarterback crop. There’s almost no chance all five
of these precocious field generals will be fully successful pros.
Weeden and Tannehill, at this early stage, seem like the most
likely candidates to disappoint. The former, a rookie in name
only (he’s almost 29), inherits a moribund Browns offense lacking
legitimacy at the receiver position. Greg Little showed flashes
in 2011 and Josh Gordon sure looks the part, but…that’s about
it. With Trent Richardson’s status up in the air, Weeden is a
guy you’ll want to steer clear of in Week 1. Tannehill, on the
other hand, is growing up before our eyes on HBO’s Hard Knocks
and seems to have the right mentality to ultimately succeed. Here’s
what he doesn’t have: a single wide receiver we’d be interested
in starting…even as a bye-week replacement. Chad Johnson (nee
Ochocinco) may have been a train wreck, but he was at least a
proven target. Lay off Tannehill until he and his no-name wideouts
develop some chemistry and consistency.
Ryan
Fitzpatrick @ NYJ: It appears Fitzpatrick’s sharp 2011
decline, on the heels of a scintillating start, must now be attributed
to some broken ribs he sustained in Week 8 and not, as could reasonably
be surmised, from a post-payday letdown. Accordingly, I think
he’s being severely undervalued for 2012 and I even targeted him
in the middle rounds of a 12-team, 2-QB draft. Of course, I also
snagged Matt Cassel a couple of rounds later so I could cover
for Fitzpatrick when he played teams like the Jets. The Hahvahd
grad has actually faced New York more than any other NFL team.
In six starts against them, he’s averaged just 159 yards, one
touchdown, and a pick. Yuck. If you’ve watched the Jets at all
this preseason, you know a 9-6 yawner is probably in the offing,
so…think seriously about giving Fitzpatrick this first week off.
Mark
Sanchez vs. BUF: Well, have you watched the Jets this
preseason? If not, here’s the abridged version: They. Can’t. Score.
Sanchez isn’t the only problem, of course (his receivers are nothing
special), but he hasn’t done much to allay the fears of an impatient
coaching staff wondering why he hasn’t progressed further at this
stage of his development. Making matters worse, that same coaching
staff has publicly committed to a run-based offense which will
almost certainly utilize Tim Tebow in the wildcat role. Often.
So, Sanchez isn’t playing well, the brass wants to go ground-and-pound,
and his backup will almost certainly poach goal-line opportunities
from him. If you can think of a good reason to start Sanchez,
I’m all ears.
Running Backs 
|
