Nobody needs to be told
starting Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, or Calvin Johnson is
a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position,
though, unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This
is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain
basement QB to use and which to ignore on Manning’s bye
week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions at running back
because Charles is a game-time decision? Look no further. Need
to know which of your unproven targets to start and which to sit
since you ignored Megatron and went Jimmy Graham-RB-QB in your
first three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may not guarantee
future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin your Sundays
in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays). Read on for
a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: Miami, Oakland
Ben Roethlisberger: The Jags have given
up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks through 4 weeks.
Grab a Helmet
Carson
Palmer / Drew
Stanton @ DEN: We’ve reached the quarter pole of the
2014 season and there are only two undefeated teams left in the
NFL, neither of which has even played four games thanks to early
bye weeks. One is Cincinnati. The other is Arizona. If you’ve been
circling the sun longer than, oh, eight years, that should pretty
much sum up how crazy these first four weeks have been. Palmer’s
Cardinals probably won’t carry that unblemished record past Week
5, but they’re certainly good enough to go down swinging against
a ticked off and well-rested Broncos team. Way back in Week 1, Andrew
Luck lit Denver up to the tune of 370 yards, albeit in a losing
effort. I have a sneaking suspicion Palmer or Stanton will similarly,
be throwing a bunch on Sunday to keep up with Peyton Manning and
Co. If he’s back under center Sunday, you use Palmer.
Ben
Roethlisberger @ JAX: I disagreed with none other than
our FF Today editor-in-chief about Roethlisberger’s prospects of
finishing 2014 as a top 10 QB (I was bearish and he was bullish).
So far, I’m winning the argument (he’s 13th), but that could change
in a hurry when Big Ben takes on a Jacksonville pass defense that’s
currently yielding over 29 fantasy points and about 321 yards per
game to opposing passers. That sounds pretty bad, right? It’s way,
way worse than it sounds. If the Jaguars continue surrendering yards
at that ridiculous pace, they will obliterate the NFL record for
most passing yards given up in a season (Green Bay in 2011 with
4,796). And if Roethlisberger’s not top 10 material after facing
them and an almost-as-crummy Buccaneers pass defense, it might be
time to start gloating. Take advantage of this veteran’s right wing
while the getting’s still good.
Eli
Manning v. ATL: We’re too quick to acclaim in this hyper-connected,
media-saturated age, but we’re also too quick to condemn. After
a Week 1 bomb and a follow-up dud against the Palmer-less Cards
in Week 2, most had written Manning’s kid bro off completely. It’s
barely two weeks later and the numbers, unequivocally, tell us rumors
of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Eli’s thrown as many TD
passes as Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers and he’s actually tallied
more fantasy points than the Pack’s head cheese. Not that Rodgers
should feel so bad. Only five quarterbacks HAVEN’T been outscored
by the younger Manning through four weeks of action. He runs hotter
and colder than the average NFL signal caller, granted, but I like
his chances of besting an Atlanta secondary that’s yielding 276
passing yards/game and just allowed Teddy Bridgewater’s first career
300-yard outing…in Teddy Bridgewater’s first career start.
Grab a Clipboard
Teddy
Bridgewater @ GB (Thursday): The good folks of Minneapolis/St.
Paul are positively giddy about young Bridgewater and that’s really
saying something when you consider A) he isn’t even certain to
play Thursday night; B) he’s got exactly one career start under
his belt; and C) the Vikes just lost the best running back in
franchise history, probably forever. Talk about being too quick
to proclaim someone the next big thing. Maybe Minnesotans are
just desperate for good news after a couple weeks of really, really
bad news. Bridgewater looked good, for sure, and certainly showed
more than Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder have in many, many more
opportunities. Nevertheless, let’s not discount whom he was facing
and where. Playing the Falcons at home is a far cry from playing
the opportunistic Pack at Lambeau. Even if he’s healthy, the matchup
and condensed week of preparation should give you pause.
Andy
Dalton @ NE or Tom
Brady v. CIN: I called Dalton and Brady the two most
disappointing QBs in last week’s Report and nothing’s happened
since that makes me feel that was a particularly hasty judgment.
Dalton didn’t play, of course, but Brady sure did and very poorly
at that. Tom Terrific headed into the Monday night showdown at
Arrowhead having scored an un-terrific 14.4 points per game and
came out of that matchup averaging 13.8. I’ll wait while you do
the math…. He’s now averaging fewer points per start than every
other full-time QB in the league. Yup, that includes guys like
Jake Locker (and Charlie Whitehurst), Josh McCown (before he got
hurt), Austin Davis, and E.J. Manuel (before he got demoted).
It’s a good thing Brady’s teammates defend the pass better than
any other squad or the Pats would really be hurting. Don’t expect
fireworks Sunday night.
Kirk
Cousins v. SEA (Monday): Just to drive this whole rushing
to judgment point home, I submit the curious case of Kirk Cousins.
Exactly one week ago, Washington’s substitute signal caller
was the toast of DC, having scorched the Eagles’ leaky secondary
to the tune of 427 yards and three scores. Who needs RGIII when
you’ve got this guy, right? Naturally, he followed that
up with a disastrous 257-yard, four-pick effort against the G-Men
just four days later. Whoops. Maybe we could make a guy string
together a couple of good games before enshrining him in Canton?
Next up is the defending Super Bowl champ Seahawks and the very
best secondary in the league, one that’s had the added benefit
of a bye week to break down tape of Cousins’ miserable performance.
I’m guessing there were some stifled yawns or, worse, stifled
laughter in Seattle’s film sessions this past week.
Running Backs 
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