Bye Weeks: Cleveland, New Orleans, NY Giants, Pittsburgh
Lamar Miller in Week 11: The Cowboys are
giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs.
Grab a Helmet
Lamar Miller v. DAL: Quick,
name the most productive running back over the last five weeks.
Todd Gurley, you say? Adrian Peterson? Pretty good guesses, but
it’s actually Lamar Miller. After a painfully slow start
(no double-digit efforts until Week 6), Miami’s meal ticket
has exploded and vaulted all the way up to No.4 overall at the
position. Not surprisingly, his emergence coincided precisely
with the departure of Joe Philbin, a coach who never seemed to
know what he had. Though the former ‘Cane will never be
a 20-carry guy (he’s only done it once as a pro), he’s
averaged more per tote (4.7) than all but three active career
RB qualifiers (Jamaal, AD, and DeAngelo Williams). He’s
also a great weapon in the passing game and has posted three of
his best career receiving days the past four weeks. Don’t
worry too much about Jay Ajayi. Miller’s the man.
Charcandrick West @ SD: When
your name is “Joe,” you’re perpetually jealous
of guys with more interesting handles. It doesn’t get more
interesting than “Charcandrick.” Luckily for the undrafted/formerly
unknown Abilene Christian alum, he’s got game to match that
standout name, which is now on the tips of almost every fantasy
GM’s tongue as we head into Week 11. Since taking over for
the injured Jamaal Charles in Week 7, West has carried the rock
no fewer than 20 times, has scored in every contest, and has tallied
no fewer than 18.2 points. In short, he’s made fantasy owners
mostly forget about the guy he replaced. This week, KC draws a
San Diego squad yielding 4.7 yards/carry, tied for 30th overall
with New Orleans. Newsflash: New Orleans just fired its defensive
coordinator. Expect triple-digit yardage and another score as
the surging Chiefs look to get back in the wildcard hunt.
LeGarrette Blount v. BUF: The
last time New England faced Buffalo, Blount was fresh off a league-imposed
suspension and, disappointingly, had his number called just twice
by Bill Belichick (for four total yards). Doghouse message officially
delivered? That day was not, thankfully, a harbinger of things
to come and much has changed in the intervening months. Dion Lewis,
the “lightning” complement to Blount’s “thunder,”
is now on the shelf and so is Tom Brady’s favorite wideout,
Julian Edelman. Blount, meanwhile, has regained good graces and
appears healthy as a horse heading down the homestretch. He’s
garnering a ton of carries (48 over his last two games) and could
be asked to assume an even larger load as Tom Brady’s available
weapons continue to dwindle. You’re never totally safe with
Belichick’s backs, but this is the best I’ve felt
about one of them in some time. Start Blount and GO DUCKS!
Grab a Gatorade
T.J. Yeldon v. TEN (Thu): Even
if Yeldon weren’t questionable for the Thursday night AFC
South pillow fight with the Titans, I’d be pretty skeptical
of his possible contributions. Despite virtually no competition
in the backfield and a steady diet of carries (no fewer than 11
in any game and several 20-plus-carry outings), he’s scored
just a single rushing touchdown in 2015. One. In eight games.
I realize we’re talking Jags here, but Gus Bradley’s
offense has been relatively productive in 2015. I say “relatively”
because the 21.3 points/game mark they’ve posted (just 23rd
overall) is actually their best total since 2010. Clearly, it’s
been a long crawl in the desert for the beleaguered Jags and Yeldon,
along with Blake Bortles and an improving defense, may eventually
drag them back toward respectability. We don’t have time
to wait, however. Go ahead and start the surprising Bortles but
sit Yeldon down.
Alfred Morris @ CAR: There’s
been an Alfred Morris sighting! After weeks and weeks of anemic
production, the once reliable Morris reemerged against New Orleans
last Sunday, handling 18 touches to the tune of 11.8 fantasy points,
or almost as many as he’d scored in his previous FIVE outings.
Before you go racing to the waiver wire, however, consider the
following: 1) He was playing against the worst defense in the
league; and 2) He wasn’t even remotely as productive as
running mate Matt Jones (24.7 points). I hinted back in August
Jones would prove more valuable this year and, for once, I was
spot on. That said, I’m not keen on either of these ‘Skins
in Week 11. A trip to Charlotte and a matchup with the undefeated
Panthers most likely spells trouble and a regression to the mean
is almost certainly in the offing. Morris’ mean isn’t
start-worthy.
Jeremy Hill @ ARZ: Every season
about this time, I like to dive deep into yards-per-carry data.
No other statistic, IMHO, provides a better snapshot of a ball
carrier’s worth than how many yards he actually gains on
a per-tote basis, especially now that the sample size is significant
enough. Of the 50 qualified backs through Week 10 (at least 6.25
attempts per team’s games played), only four have been worse
than Hill: Arian Foster, Andre Williams, Duke Johnson, Jr., and
Isaiah Crowell. That’s bad, but the news might actually
be worse because Hill’s teammate, Gio Bernard, is ranked
5th overall. It’s one thing when teammates struggle behind
the same line (Johnson, Jr. and Crowell). It’s quite another
when one teammate outgains another by over two yards per touch
behind the same line. Hill might still tally some six-pointers,
but I wouldn’t be willing to start him down the stretch.
