Nobody needs to be told starting Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Charles,
or Calvin Johnson is a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t
have studs at every position unless you’re in the shallowest
of leagues. This is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help
deciding which bargain basement QB to use and which to ignore
on Luck’s bye week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions
at running back because AD is a game-time decision? Look no further.
Need to know which of your unproven targets to start and which
to sit since you ignored Brown and went RB-QB-Gronk in your first
three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may not guarantee
future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin your Sundays
in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays). Read on for
a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Ryan Tannehill will need to keep pace with
Tom Brady which should lead to above-average production.
Grab a Helmet
Ryan
Tannehill @ NE (Thursday): What a difference a couple
weeks and a new head coach makes, huh? Intangibles tend to get overlooked
in the NFL, but it’s hard to see why. The talent differential from
team to team is fairly minimal (they’re all pros, after all) and
things like locker room culture, attitude, and overall leadership
can really be the difference between 6-10 and 10-6. The Fish were
heading for the former under Mr. Milquetoast, Joe Philbin, and now
look like a good bet to hit the latter mark under interim coach
“Dan-tallica” Campbell. The defense is finally living up to its
potential. Lamar Miller has been unleased. The highly capable Tannehill
again looks like the perfect fit for Bill Lazor’s spread offense.
The bell probably tolls for Miami on Thursday, but nothing else
matters if you’re a Tannehill owner and the shootout we’re anticipating
actually comes to pass.
Ryan
Fitzpatrick @ OAK: This isn’t going to sound very nice,
but it needs to be said: IK Enemkpali’s preseason tune-up of Geno
Smith’s jaw is probably the best thing that could have happened
to New York in 2015. Since that unfortunate locker room scuffle,
the Jets have turned into a legit playoff contender in the muddled
AFC, largely because Fitzpatrick has brought balance to an offense
that sorely lacked it under Smith and predecessors. From 2012 to
2014, Gang Green ranked no better than 30th overall in passing offense.
They’re only 22nd this year, to be fair, but that’s actually better
than Denver and Green Bay and only a handful of yards worse than
Miami. I’m not suggesting you should start Fitz over Aaron Rodgers
or the aforementioned Tannehill. I’m absolutely suggesting he might
be a better option than Peyton Manning at this point, though, especially
against Oakland. #FearTheBeard
Matt
Ryan v. TB: We continue the Ryan-themed QB recommendations
with one who, somewhat surprisingly, isn’t the automatic start we’ve
come to think he is. Atlanta’s rolling at 6-1, has scored more points
than all but two teams (New England and Arizona), and is ranked
third overall in total offense. Nevertheless, their perennial top
10 QB is averaging only 20.1 points/game, his worst mark since 2010,
and is ranked just 22nd at the position on a per-game basis. Cause
for concern? Maybe. Cause for concern against the Buccaneers? Nope.
Tampa is ranked last in the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value
Over Average) against opposing No.1 WRs by the guys over at Football
Outsiders. Newsflash: The Falcons have a pretty good No.1 WR. If
the Tampa offense can hang on Sunday (and it absolutely can), Ryan-to-Jones
could preempt the Devonta Freeman show for once. Stick with Matty
Ice in Week 8.
Grab a Clipboard
Colin
Kaepernick @ STL: Here’s how coach Jim Tomsula addressed
rumors Kaepernick’s aloofness may be affecting the Niners’ team
chemistry: "'Guys, it's like an Italian dining room table. Everybody's
sitting around the table, and sometimes it gets heated, dishes
get broken, people leave. [Then] everybody's got to come back
to the table to eat. And when it's all said and done, there's
hugging and kissing and we're eating good food again, OK?” Ha!
That makes me really like Jim Tomsula, really uncomfortable and
really hungry all at once. Chemistry issues aside, Kap’s a quarterbacking
hot mess right now. He’s averaging fewer points per game than
all but three full-time starters (Foles, Bridgewater, and Peyton)
and has looked especially crummy against good defenses. Jeff Fisher
has one of those and could use his new meal ticket, Todd Gurley,
to keep the San Francisco offense on the sideline all Sunday.
Brian
Hoyer v. TEN: If all you knew about Hoyer was his fantasy
bottom line (24.4 ppg since Week 4) and the fact his backup, Ryan
Mallett, was released on Tuesday, you’d be racing to the waiver
wire to snap him up. Solid digits plus no competition? Sounds
like a winning formula. A closer look reveals some warning signs,
however. First, Hoyer’s been on the business end of two huge blowouts
(Atlanta in Week 4 when he relieved Mallett and Miami last week)
and accumulated most of his stats in those games when they were
way, way out of reach. Second, he accumulated his other numbers
against Indianapolis, the worst overall defense in the league,
and Jacksonville, the 30th ranked scoring defense in the league.
I guess what I’m trying to say is he’s probably gonna turn into
a pumpkin (read: Brian Hoyer) any day now. You have been warned.
Peyton
Manning v. GB: As recently as last year, Sunday night’s
matchup between undefeated heavyweights Denver and Green Bay might
have shaped up as a primetime shootout for the ages, future HOF
gunslinger v. future HOF gunslinger. It still could, I suppose,
but seven weeks of action and a total that’s hovering around
45 tell us we’re more likely headed for a game dominated
by two great defenses. The Pack and Broncos are 1-2 in points
allowed per game and Denver is inexplicably sporting the 30th
ranked offense in the league, one year after ranking 4th and two
years removed from ranking 1st. Remember that time I told you
Manning was going to disappoint in 2015? I’m not really
an “I told you so” kinda guy, but…oh, who am
I kidding? I told you so. Keep Manning reserved if you have better
options (read: pretty much any other starting quarterback).
