Nobody needs to be told starting Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson,
or Antonio Brown is a good idea. Duh, right? You can’t have
studs at every position, though, unless you’re in the shallowest
of leagues. This is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help
deciding which bargain basement QB to use and which to ignore
on Rodgers’ bye week? Let’s talk. Looking for solutions
at running back because Johnson is a game-time decision? Look
no further. Need to know which of your unproven targets to start
and which to sit since you ignored Brown and went RB-QB-Gronk
in your first three rounds? You get the idea. Past results may
not guarantee future success, but ignoring them entirely can ruin
your Sundays in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays and Thursdays).
Read on for a little history and, hopefully, a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: Tampa Bay, Miami
Are you in a Jameis Winston or Jay Cutler
bind? Alex Smith could be the relief you're looking for.
Grab a Helmet
Alex
Smith @ NE (Thu): The regular season finally kicks off
in Foxboro on Thursday night, where the Patriots begin defense of
their (still improbable) title against Kansas City. The last time
these two teams met was in the 2015 Divisional Playoffs, a 27-20
New England victory that featured 50 Smith passing attempts. It
was only one of two times in 12 professional seasons he’d thrown
half a hundred passes in a game and I think there’s a reasonable
chance he could approach that number again. The Chiefs will be breaking
in an exciting but unproven RB, possess some bona fide talent at
the WR and TE positions, and will be trading blows with one of the
most explosive offenses in the league. The volume could be there,
in short, to make the guy you drafted as a bye week fill-in a legitimate
start option right out of the gate.
Russell
Wilson @ GB: Wilson’s almost always a legit start option,
but his last trip to Wisconsin was brutal (FIVE picks) and there
are concerns about his surrounding cast this season. I guess I should
say I’M concerned about his surrounding cast. The offensive line
that almost got him killed in 2016 is likely worse without left
tackle George Fant, now out for the year with a torn ACL. The running
backs have struggled to stay healthy (Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise)
and/or in shape (Eddie Lacy). The pass-catchers are virtual unknowns
save for Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. Nevertheless, Wilson has
always managed to get the most out of his available weapons and
this year should be no different, provided he stays upright. Sunday
afternoon’s showdown at Lambeau is one of the juiciest Week 1 matchups
and I’m expecting points aplenty in a game featuring two NFC title
contenders.
Sam
Bradford v. NO (Mon): Bradford was only borderline draftable
in 10 and 12-team leagues, so there’s a reasonably good chance he’s
sitting on your waiver wire to start the season. If you decided
to roll the dice with Andrew Luck, however, or got burned by Hurricane
Irma, which now officially postpones Jameis Winston’s and Jay Cutler’s
2017 campaign, he’s an attractive one-time fill-in. The former Ram/Eagle
completed 71.6% of his passes last year and also averaged over 250
yards/game. That’s the kind of efficiency almost everyone facing
New Orleans has achieved recently. Since 2011, the Saints’ pass
defense has ranked, in order, 30th, 31st, 2nd, 25th, 31st, and 32nd.
Yikes. The Minny brass have surrounded Bradford with some interesting
pieces and if that iffy line can protect him, who knows? I like
his chances of posting some sneaky good stats in the first game
of a Monday night doubleheader.
Grab a Clipboard
Tyrod
Taylor v. NYJ: I won’t be heeding my own advice this
Sunday as I’m stuck with either Taylor or DeShone Kizer at QB2
in our big money league (Matt Stafford’s my QB1). In my defense,
we drafted before Anquan Boldin’s sudden retirement and before
Buffalo’s triggerman was concussed in Week 3 of the preseason.
Nevertheless, my wait-on-QBs strategy has almost completely backfired
and I’ll be scrambling for sure if/when the Bills pull the plug
on 2017 and go into full rebuild mode, likely with someone other
than Taylor under center. For now, he’s what I’ve got and I sincerely
hope you’ve got better. The Jets are a hot mess right now, yes,
but have some capable players on defense, even without Sheldon
Richardson. This one has all the makings of an unwatchable AFC
East slap fight. Do as I say and not as I do: Sit Mr. Taylor down.
Dak
Prescott v. NYG: I should have just plunked down a
couple more bucks for Prescott, in retrospect, but I learned a
valuable lesson in that particular auction draft: It only takes
one other owner employing the same patient strategy to screw things
up, especially if that owner’s player valuations are similar.
I did and still do like Prescott this season, despite the sit-down
recommendation, primarily because he’ll, in theory, be playing
with Dez Bryant more and with Zeke Elliott less. That equation
has been muddled somewhat by Elliott’s unusual situation (suspended
yet able to play Week 1), but I’m bearish on Prescott, regardless,
this Sunday night. The Giants possess the league’s best secondary
and also one its best front lines and gave the Cowboys’ young
gunslinger fits in 2016 (just 25 total points in two games). You
didn’t draft him to ride pine, but every win matters. Consider
alternatives.
Philip
Rivers @ DEN: I didn’t like predicting he’d drop out
of the Top 10 QB ranks several weeks back and I don’t like
predicting he’ll lay an egg in Week 1. However, there are
legitimate reasons to think both things will come to pass and
they’re actually kind of related. To wit, Rivers faces the
Denver defense to open the season, arguably the league’s
best, and an outfit he averaged barely 17 points against last
year. That’s a full 5 points off his season-long average
of 22.2. Making matters worse, he plays six more games against
the league’s top seven scoring defenses (Broncos again,
Chiefs twice, Cowboys, Giants, and Pats). Playing almost half
your games against the NFL’s most efficient stopper units
is no recipe for fantasy success and even the resourceful Rivers
could suffer because of it. Be very wary, starting with the tough
divisional matchup in Denver.
