The Saints have been beatup up by WR2s
this season including a big game from Stefon Diggs in Wk 8.
Grab a Helmet
John
Ross v. NO: Two weeks ago, I strongly recommended a play
on Stefon Diggs v. New Orleans, arguing that WR2s were routinely
killing the Saints this season. Diggs delivered with an 11-target,
10-reception, 119-yard effort, even tallying a six-pointer and outscoring
his more celebrated running mate, Adam Thielen, in the losing effort.
The same logic applies this week when the Bengals square off against
New Orleans in a game that promises to keep the scoreboard operator
busy. It’ll take a much bigger leap of faith to insert the unproven/heretofore
disappointing John Ross into your lineups, but he appears to be
healthy and fits the profile of a receiver who’s been giving the
Saints’ defense fits (very, very fast). Ross has only been targeted
18 times as a pro thus far, but with A.J. Green watching in street
clothes, his time in the spotlight has finally arrived.
Adam
Humphries v. WAS: For my money, targets offer the best
predictive value, all things considered, over any other wide receiver
statistic, including actual production (receptions, yardage, etc.).
The past is about production. The future is all about opportunity
and the only opportunity a WR has to produce, in general, is on
plays in which he’s targeted. I say all this as prelude to this
little statistical nugget: Adam Humphries is the sixth most targeted
wideout the past three weeks, right behind teammate Mike Evans,
Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Julian Edleman, and DeAndre Hopkins.
If you’re thinking one of these things is not like the other, I’m
right there with you. Nevertheless, players commanding 8-10 targets
per contest shouldn’t be sitting on your bench. Sneak Humphries
into your lineup against a Washington bunch that isn’t as good against
the pass (254 YPG, 20th overall) as it is against the run.
David
Moore @ LAR: Targets aren’t everything, of course, as
players like David Moore probably illustrate. In his last four outings,
the pride of East Central University (Ada, OK if you’re wondering)
has only commanded 18 looks in a run-heavy offense, the same number
Chad Williams has down in Phoenix. Yet, while Williams has tallied
a meager 8.3 fantasy points during that stretch, Moore has amassed
an impressive 44.3, mostly on the strength of four TD receptions.
That’s an almost 25% touch-to-TD conversion rate, pretty impressive
stuff for a player nobody outside Seattle even knew existed two
months ago. Moore scored two of those six-pointers in the narrow
Week 5 loss to the Rams, his coming out party. The rematch is slated
for Sunday afternoon down in La La Land and there’s a pretty good
chance the Hawks will be forced to the air early and often. Start
David Moore.
Grab Some Wood
Nelson
Agholor v. DAL: A Philly WR corps that once looked
depleted now appears to be overly crowded as we head toward Week
10; lousy news if you were hoping Agholor could recapture his
early-season form. The former Trojan garnered 39 targets the first
four weeks, a healthy share, but has only managed about half that
in the four games since (22). First, Alshon Jeffrey returned,
cutting heavily into the youngster’s value. Then, Jordan Matthews
rejoined the squad. Finally, Philly added slot man Golden Tate
over the bye week in a trade with Detroit, further marginalizing
Agholor’s seemingly secure role in the Eagles’ passing game. Things
change quickly in the NFL, for sure, and the valuable Super Bowl
contributor could certainly reemerge if injuries crop up. For
now, though, he’s best left on your bench until we see how/if
he fits into the bigger picture. Sit him down Sunday night.
Randall
Cobb v. MIA: The Pack will likely be without Geronimo
Allison the rest of the way, seemingly clearing a path for Cobb
to lock down the role as Aaron Rodgers’ second fiddle. The targets
are certainly there already (no fewer than five in any of his
five appearances), but Cobb’s production has really started to
tail off lately. Since a 20.2-point explosion in Week 1, he’s
managed to turn 28 targets into just 11.7 points (standard leagues),
a paltry and disturbing points-per-target ratio (.42) that looks
anemic next to teammate Marquez Valdez-Scantling’s eye-popping
1.49. I guess that’s my way of saying Allison’s injury clears
a path for MVS, and not Randall Cobb, to lock down the role as
A-Rodge’s true second fiddle. If all you need are bye week table
scraps, Cobb might be your guy. If you’re looking for something
significantly meatier, MVS is the much better bet.
T.Y.
Hilton v. JAX: The Jags appear to be in complete disarray
right now, but even through all the turmoil, they’ve managed
to keep a pretty tight lid on opposing WRs. As we move into the
second half of the season, Jalen Ramsey and Co. are allowing just
17.8 points per game to the position, more than they did last
year (14.3) but still few enough to lead the league this season.
Moreover, they’ve already squared off against some of the
game’s best (OBJ, Tyreek Hill, and DeAndre Hopkins). Hilton’s
probably a step down from that group, but still possesses game-breaking
speed and can ruin a DB’s day in a hurry. He won’t
ruin Ramsey’s in a divisional game the Jags simply must
have to stay in the mix for a playoff berth. I think they’ll
get it and would definitely take a flyer on the straight-up win
in Indy.
Good luck, folks!
