Real NBA basketball games were played this week, meaning we’re
nearing the halfway point of the NFL campaign, as good a time
as any to look for any surprises amongst the league’s target
leaders. Would you believe Sutton’s sitting at WR12 in that
category, a full 12 targets higher than his more celebrated and
now former teammate, Emmanuel Sanders? The Broncos haven’t
had a bye yet, sure, but it’s still pretty interesting the
guy Denver kept is already a true WR1 in terms of opportunity.
How many more Joe Flacco looks will he command now that Sanders
calls San Francisco home? Top wideouts on crummy teams aren’t
always worth our attention, but this one also happens to be WR23
in FPts/G, making him a clear back-end WR2 now oozing with top-end
WR2 or even back-end WR1 upside. Sutton’s and not Sanders’
owners won this week’s swap.
Here’s another target-related oddity I stumbled upon during
my research: John Brown, whose career high catch percentage is
a modest 64% (2015) and who has only been north of 50% twice,
has caught 73% of his Bills targets through seven weeks. That’s
odd for essentially two reasons. First, Brown is a classic home-run
hitter, the type of receiver who typically compensates for a low
catch percentage with a higher per-catch average. Second, Josh Allen, his battery mate, tallied the lowest completion percentage
amongst qualified QBs last season (52.8%), even behind Josh Rosen.
No, I won’t stop picking on him. Brown’s catch percentage,
BTW, is higher than teammate Cole Beasley’s, the Bills primary
slot receiver. It’s still dicey relying on big numbers from
a fledgling Buffalo passing game, but I’ve started Brown
nearly every week so far and do not regret the decision. Join
the club!
Our site has a cool and underrated stat called “Comparison to
League Average,” which essentially describes the delta between a
team’s average points against any particular position and the overall
league average against that position. The numbers can get pretty
high, both positive and negative, but I’ve never seen one as high
as Arizona’s 118.7% v. the TE position. Translated, this means you
can expect to score more than DOUBLE the league average at the TE
spot if whomever you start is facing the Cardinals. Either Cook
(currently sidelined with a bum ankle) or Josh Hill will be doing
that this Sunday and I’d simply suggest you blindly start whichever
one the Saints do. Arizona’s surrendered a TE touchdown in every
game but one and has already allowed THREE of them to tally over
100 yards in a game. Take advantage, folks.
Kyle Shanahan called the process of getting Sanders up to speed
in time for the matchup with Carolina a “cram job,”
but confirmed he will play. What we can’t possibly know
is how much. Here’s my opinion: not enough and it might
not even matter. I get the excitement surrounding the veteran
receiver’s move to a contender. The Niners had no clear
WR1 and now have someone who’s tallied three 1,000-yd seasons
in his near decade as a pro. Most of those numbers came in pass-happy
attacks, however (Pittsburgh and then Denver during the Manning
years), and Shanahan’s offense is anything but in 2019.
The Niners’ pass play percentage is a shade under 43%, the
lowest in the league and a full four percentage points lower than
the next closest squad. He’s a nice new piece but this is
a run-first squad. Check the enthusiasm
Guys like MVS can make guys like me look bad in a single play,
but I’ve never been one to play the lottery. The speedster
from USF tallied 133 yards and a score in the Pack’s big
win over Oakland last Sunday. However, he did that on a mere three
targets and two receptions. Since Week 4, when Green Bay lost
Davante Adams late, he’s tallied only nine total targets,
despite being the de facto WR1 for A-Rodge. Yes, he was also dinged
up some v. Detroit, but No.1 receivers should be able to command
more than three targets a game, especially when they’re
playing catch with a first ballot HOF’er. If none of that
warns you off, maybe this will: If you take away Valdes-Scantling’s
two long TD grabs this season, he’d have fewer points than
Danny Amendola, currently WR67. Simply put, you’re gambling
with MVS.
Pascal was probably a hot waiver wire add, but there aren’t
many reasons to trust that Week 7 performance is repeatable. For
starters, he’d never before, in 16 career games, topped
the 100-yard mark. Nor had he ever scored more than once in a
game. He did both of those things against the Texans last Sunday
and there was even enough Jacoby Brissett love left over for T.Y. Hilton to get in on the act (74 yards and a score). If you’re
thinking Houston might have been an easy mark for the two, you’re
absolutely right. Bill O’Brien’s crew gives up 28.4
FPts/G to opposing wideouts and has already surrendered 11 TDs
(tied for last). This week’s opponent, Denver, is giving
up only 16.4 FPts/G to the position and has allowed just four
pass-grabbers to score. Don’t get carried away here.
Good luck, folks!
