Version 1.0 - 2/8/10.
Version 2.0 - 3/18/10.
1. St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford, QB,
Oklahoma
While others still had the top DTs in the discussion, I explained
in my last mock why Bradford
would be the pick. After a dominating performance in his workout
at the end of March, the discussion is over. Not that it would have
impacted the decision regardless, but QB Marc Bulger was also released,
as expected. The acquisition of QB Donovan McNabb by the Redskins
also eliminates the team most likely to try to trade up for Bradford.
Barring some unforeseen circumstance, it would be a shock if Bradford
was not the first overall pick and to the Rams. Ignore GM Billy
Devaney proclaiming this pick is not a lock and it could still be
traded, as well as reports Bradford won’t sign a pre-draft
contract. This is posturing for leverage in negotiations by both
sides.
2. Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh, DT,
Nebraska
The top of the draft is really starting to fall in to place now.
The acquisition of OG Rob Sims from Seattle would seem to end the
discussion of moving LT Jeff Backus inside and Detroit drafting
OT Russell Okung.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy,
DT, Oklahoma
While it would be surprising to see the Bucs pass on McCoy, this
spot still has a chance to shake up the draft. RFA LT Donald Penn
was not happy about being assigned the highest tender, which prohibited
other teams from pursuing him for the cost of first- and third-round
picks, and is yet to sign despite no other teams offering him a
contract by the 4/15 deadline. It seems unlikely Penn would hold
out, but he could try to push for a sign-and-trade. This potentially
volatile situation leaves OT Russell Okung a possibility here, which
would really shake up the first round. S Eric Berry will not be
selected this early and if GM Mark Dominik makes a surprising pick
here, it would be WR Dez Berry. There is no longer a market for
any team that falls in love with QB Jimmy Clausen and worries about
trading up to this spot ahead of the Redskins to get him. However,
it wouldn’t surprise me to see this pick moved at a discounted
price as the Glazer family is having their share of financial challenges
with the other professional football team they own, Manchester United.
4. Washington Redskins – Russell Okung,
OT, Oklahoma State
While I had Okung here since my last mock when it was apparent the
Rams would go Bradford, the Great QB Debate in Washington officially
ends for everyone else with the surprising addition of Donovan McNabb.
If Okung goes early, HC Mike Shanahan shouldn’t be too disappointed
to get OT Trent Williams instead. There are some reports he is the
preferred pick here.
The Chiefs will have many options at pick
#5 including Iowa OT Bryan Bulaga.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan
Bulaga, OT, Iowa
GM Scott Pioli will have to think long and hard about passing on
a potential superstar like S Eric Berry, but ultimately the most
pressing need is protecting the investment he banked his career
in KC on, Matt Cassel. 2008 first-round pick Branden Albert didn’t
succeed as a LT and they need to keep Cassel vertical, so they bring
in the athletic Williams to protect the blind side and move Albert
to RT or return to his natural guard position to hopefully be more
productive. It’s a close call between Bulaga and OT Trent
Williams, both providing solid Combine performances that compliment
what you see on film. Most are mocking Bulaga to this spot based
on NFL Network’s Mike Mayock previously pointing out the relationship
between Pioli and Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz. However, going back to his
Patriot days, Pioli has never been involved in a front office that
drafted an Iowa lineman. I don’t think that’s much of
a factor and go back and forth on who is the better prospect between
Bulaga and Williams. After going back and looking at Bulaga a bit
more, I think he might be the better pure LT prospect. If anyone
is clamoring for Berry or QB Jimmy Clausen at this point, Pioli
would be all too happy to trade down a few spots and still get a
premier OT while picking up an extra pick or two.
6. Seattle Seahawks –Trent Williams,
OT, Oklahoma
The trade for QB Charlie Whitehurst takes QB Jimmy Clausen out of
consideration here. HC Pete Carroll is now free to address one of
his two biggest needs: offensive tackle or a playmaker on either
side of the ball. With LT Walter Jones appearing inching closer
to a retirement decision now that he won’t be at their first
camp of spring, I think Carroll will not want to wait on their important
gap on the line – especially if two of the top offensive tackles
are already off the board. I could see any of Williams, Russell
Okung or Bryan Bulaga being the pick here; it just depends on who
falls. Williams offers the most versatility of the three and is
a nice fit for the expected zone-blocking they will use. Otherwise,
S Eric Berry or RB C.J. Spiller should be the pick here. The secondary
has a few serviceable parts, but is lacking in upside and, after
the release of S Deon Grant, has just one certain starter in CB
Marcus Trufant.
7. Cleveland Browns – Jimmy Clausen,
QB, Notre Dame
While many continue to project S Eric Berry with this pick, which
I agree is a likely possibility, some mocks have come around to
the logic for selecting Clausen here I explained in my last mock.
When new team president Mike Holmgren brought in former protégée
Seneca Wallace from Seattle, the ideal bridge QB to run his WCO
while a new franchise QB is groomed, and purged the QB corps he
inherited, Cleveland drafting a QB made a lot of sense. After Holmgren
gave free agent Jake Delhomme a ridiculous two-year contract, selecting
a QB appeared to make less sense and I started thinking Holmgren
must not like either Bradford or Clausen (doesn’t matter what
Holmgren publically says, this time of year is a misinformation
jubilee) because he laid the groundwork to put off finding a new
QB for a year. However, the trade of OLB Kamerion Wimbley for a
third-round pick clarified my thoughts on the subject. Cleveland
then had the juice to trade up a couple spots, if necessary, to
at least get ahead of Seattle’s 6th pick (of all teams, Holmgren
wouldn’t want his last team snagging the guy he thought was
a franchise QB) and maybe up to Tampa Bay’s 3rd pick. After
Washington brought in QB Donovan McNabb, the need to trade up is
now moot. So that brings us back to Delhomme. I assume that move
was a high-premium insurance plan. If he doesn’t like Clausen
here, Delhomme becomes a reclamation project. I’m sure Holmgren
likes Delhomme’s intangibles and since his problems are reportedly
more mental than physical, holds out hope they can be corrected
for some short-term gains along the lines of what Kurt Warner did
for Arizona. Disregard reading in to Holmgren’s comments about
wishing he “liked Clausen more”, the misinformation
is flying around this time of year. The bottom line is, I think
Holmgren would prefer to start his reign in Cleveland with a long-term
solution at QB and I’m relatively confident he’ll be
impressed enough with Clausen to make him the choice here, especially
not having to trade up to get him. With the secondary a mess, as
I mentioned, it is popular for others to mock Berry or CB Joe Haden
here. The addition of CB Sheldon Brown makes Haden less likely,
but it’s hard to argue with Berry. If they aren’t taking
Clausen, it seems he’s definitely the pick here if Berry gets
by KC and Seattle.
8. Oakland Raiders – Bruce Campbell,
OT, Maryland
With a bevy of young talent at skill positions on offense, adding
a top prospect to an offensive line that has been a lingering problem
seems obvious. Of course, Al Davis rarely follows conventional wisdom
in the draft, spurning solid necessities for shiny luxuries known
as workout warriors. Well this spot offers the perfect combination
of need coinciding with the type of athletic specimen Mr. Davis
loves. Campbell blew everyone away at the Combine with his terrific
measurables and freakish performances in workouts. While that might
not jibe with his limited and unexceptional work on film, this would
be a textbook Al Davis pick. The only reason not to expect this
to happen is that a consensus has quickly built among pundits that
Campbell will be the pick here, which is usually the top reason
to think that won’t be the pick. OT Anthony Davis is probably
the better pick here, but his Combine performance was the antithesis
of what Davis looks for. As for alternatives, although he lacks
the big arm Davis desires, under different circumstances, QB Jimmy
Clausen has the swagger and name recognition Davis values if he
fell here. The hit for cutting Jamarcus Russell is actually manageable
at his point, but Davis has looked like he’ll continue to
stand behind him and has a history of doing so with his draft picks
that become personal projects. Defensive ends Carlos Dunlap and
Jason Pierre-Paul also have the athleticism Davis covets, but the
acquisition of OLB/DE Kamerion Wimbley from Cleveland makes them
unlikely to address the position here.
9. Buffalo Bills – Anthony Davis, OT,
Rutgers
The team has yet to recover from trading Pro Bowl LT Jason Peter
prior to last year’s draft and compounding the problem by
ignoring the position with their two first-round picks. With both
top QB prospects off the board, addressing OT should be the pick.
It’s a no-brainer if Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, or Trent
Williams falls, a bit less certain with Davis, whose stock has taken
a hit with his workouts. After a disappointing Combine, with the
lowlight being just 21 reps on the bench for a player whose work
ethic is questionable, Davis continued to hurt his stock by leaving
his Pro Day early. Apparently Davis showed up to meet with teams
in the morning at Rutgers’ Pro Day, but then refused to weigh
in and left unexpectedly before the drills started. In a vacuum,
this would be a bad decision, but probably not hurt his draft value.
However, this type of lack of accountability has plagued Davis’
throughout college and is now a major red flag. Still, he represents
the last of the top-tier of prospects at the position. If either
top QB fell, the Bills would have a tough decision. Not sure either
Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen has the arm to thrive in Buffalo’s
weather. Also making a QB selection questionable is the new tandem
of GM Buddy Nix and HC Chan Gailey. A distinguished talent evaluator,
Nix has been around for a while, but never had responsibility for
the final decisions. After seemingly failing in landing one of the
many big name coaches available, Nix settled on Gailey. Not exactly
the type of choice that seems the answer to a team that has gone
through five coaches in the last decade. Bottom line is both Nix
and Gailey need to turn things around fast to hold their jobs. That
being the case, improving the offensive line to support the running
game, one of Gailey’s strengths as a coordinator, and trying
to salvage something from Trent Edwards seems the quicker fix than
rebuilding around a rookie QB. Gailey has been able to achieve reasonable
success with quarterbacks far less talented than Edwards in the
past. I also think acquiring strong-armed QB Jason Campbell from
Washington is a very likely alternative to solving their QB problem
some where other than with this pick.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Eric Berry,
S, Tennessee
After filling their biggest gap, a pass rushing DE, with the signing
of free agent Aaron Kampman, as well as bringing back Reggie Hayward
for depth there, GM Gene Smith has options with this pick. While
top offensive playmakers like RB C.J. Spiller and WR Dez Bryant
are appealing, I think Smith will be looking to shore up his defense
with this pick. Berry falling here is likely their best-case scenario.
Clearly I think it reasonable he falls this far, but I do struggle
with projecting five offensive tackles going in the top ten picks.
If Berry is gone, LB Rolando McClain, CB Joe Haden, S Taylor Mays,
who I previously projected at this pick, and versatile S Earl Thomas
are all logical picks here. While QB Tim Tebow’s stock seems
on the rise and he is reportedly a target for owner Wayne Weaver,
but I don’t believe he has a shot of going this high. If they
really want Tebow, it would make more sense to trade down. The addition
of Kampman and Hayward doesn’t preclude them from still going
after another DE, especially since they are likely to have their
pick of the litter with the 10th pick. The pass rush bottomed out
last year as the worst in the league, totaling just 14 sacks, while
Kampman brings injury concerns coming back from knee surgery and
Hayward can’t seem to stay healthy. The team will go back
to a base 4-3 this year and 2008 first-round pick Derrick Harvey
will start at left end, so a rookie like Derrick Morgan or Jason
Pierre-Paul could be eased in as a pass rush specialist with Kampman
and Harvey. The team reportedly had a strong presence at Georgia
Tech’s Pro Day, where there are potential fits of both Morgan
as a first-round pick and S Morgan Burnett as a mid-round possibility.
11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago Bears) –
Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama
The trade of WR Brandon Marshall to Miami definitely made the pick
here I’ve been projecting since my first mock, Dez Bryant,
look more likely. However, with another early second round pick
from the Marshall trade, I noticed the number of quality WR options
left in the second round compared to the defensive front seven options.
I’m not concerned with Bryant’s character, it’s
not the impetus of changing the pick here, it’s more that
Denver really needs to be sold that Bryant is a unique talent here
to pay the opportunity cost of not going defense with this pick.
Hence for what should be a no-brainer for Bryant, I’m now
projecting they take McClain. In addition to being among the best
players available, he fills a need after the surprising release
of Andra Davis. McCain’s stock has bounced back from a disappointing
Combine performance, which he attributed to a hamstring problem.
There were also reports that he suffers from Crohn’s disease
that raised some concern about him, but he has now refuted those
stories. Regardless, McClain remains a solid first-round prospect.
The overhaul of the defensive line through free agency, with the
additions of NT Jamal Williams and DE Jarvis Green, seem to indicate
they won’t address the defensive line with this pick, but
Williams is a stopgap and DT Dan Williams would be a smart pick
here too.
12. Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams,
DT, Tennessee
The eight-game suspension for aging NT Jason Ferguson makes addressing
this position now even more pressing. Williams has been a fast-rising
prospect and a good fit to be the key disruptive force in the middle
of a 3-4. It had been popular to mock LB Rolando McClain at this
pick, until they added veteran Karlos Dansby. That doesn’t
preclude McClain from being the pick here, while he lacks elite
athleticism, McClain brings the two key attributes Bill Parcells
wants in his linebackers – big and smart. Outside linebacker
is a significant need, as well, and the Dolphins should have their
choice of all the pass rush specialist tweeners available, but I
don’t think any are a good value here. With the addition of
WR Brandon Marshall via trade, Dez Bryant is no longer a consideration
if he falls here.
13. San Francisco 49ers – Joe Haden,
CB, Florida
With help in the secondary already a need, the team is pleasantly
surprised to find the top CB in the draft fall out of the top ten.
Forget the Combine 40 time, Haden is a shutdown corner who creates
turnovers in the air and on the ground. He could go as high as 7th
overall. If Haden doesn’t make it this far, S Taylor Mays
or S Earl Thomas could be the pick, as well as offensive line. They
are also likely to consider an offensive tackle here and maybe even
a linebacker. There is also a lot of discussion of their potential
interest in RB C.J. Spiller, both for his running and to improve
their return game. It is an appealing strategy, but the opportunity
to really improve a couple other areas makes more sense when the
depth chart is already solid at running back. An interesting scenario
could be QB Jimmy Clausen falling this far. Many who believe Cleveland
won’t select him are mocking him here, as recently exiled
GM Scot McCloughan was the top proponent of incumbent QB Alex Smith.
Smith’s contract is also up this year, so the team should
likely address QB at some point in this draft, if not this high.
14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver Broncos)
– Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
After sorting left tackle with their sixth overall pick, the Seahawks
should probably use this pick to address their gapping hole at defensive
end, and they have all of them available to choose from. Instead,
HC Pete Carroll looks to add playmaking ability and instant excitement
to the offense. Previously I had projected that would come via the
selection of RB C.J. Spiller, but Carroll’s extensive sniffing
around Brandon Marshall made me rethink upgrading that position
is his higher priority. Bryant’s draft stock has fallen like
AIG in the press as we approach the draft. Reports of him dropping
down or off the draft boards of various teams continue to surface.
The fact he didn’t work out at the Combine or Oklahoma State’s
Pro Day due to a lingering hamstring injury, so we haven’t
seen anything from him since September, but the bigger concerns
seem to be with character and dedication. I don’t disagree,
but Bryant’s biggest flaw seems to be immaturity as opposed
to being a bad seed and I don’t believe he falls far.
Spiller: Too much value to pass up.
15. New York Giants – C.J. Spiller,
RB, Clemson
GM Jerry Reese likes to draft to fill holes, so if LB Rolando McClain
is available, he is likely the pick. Without Antonio Pierce, the
defense needs not only a player to fill the position at MLB, but
the role of a leader, and McClain would be a great fit for both.
LB Sean Weatherspoon is rising up boards could be the choice for
the same, as well. However, in this scenario, Spiller falls and
is too much value to pass up. The running game hurt them last year
and their kick return average was among the worst in the league.
Spiller is getting far too little love in mocks and from draft pundits.
While he may lack ideal size, the kid is special. There are home
run hitters, and then there is Spiller. He had 21 touchdowns over
50 yards and 9 of those were over 80 yards. Another strong consideration
here would be the defensive line. There are reports they’d
like to move Osi Umenyiora and add one of the top DE prospects.
The addition of S Antrel Rolle as the highest paid safety in the
history of the NFL means they definitely are no longer looking a
safety here.
16. Tennessee Titans – Jason Pierre-Paul,
DE, South Florida
The pass rush needs a jump-start and with the departure of Kyle
Vanden Bosch through free agency, I’d be shocked if the Titans
don’t take a defensive end here. With a resume thin on starting
experience, Pierre-Paul needed to impress in workouts and didn’t
disappoint. Pierre-Paul has more bust potential than DE Derrick
Morgan, but also the higher ceiling. I could see either one being
the selection here if both are available. The fact Pierre-Paul may
remind HC Jeff Fisher of a young Jevon Kearse had me switch the
pick here from Morgan in my previous mock. The other top ends will
be a consideration, as well. Carlos Dunlap’s baggage and reportedly
unimpressive interviews are dragging him down, despite first-round
talent. Everson Griffen’s stock is going the opposite way,
so he’s in the mix too. With the quality options that should
be available here, I’d be shocked if the Titans drafted anything
other than a DE here.
17. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina Panthers)
– Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
The undersized tweener turned heads at the Senior Bowl and while
draftniks and pundits raced to move Graham up draft boards. While
he came in under 6’2” at the Combine, he continued to
impress with his workouts, particularly his movement in drills and
31 reps on the bench. His versatility and pass rush potential could
make him the next Elvis Dumervil. HC Mike Singletary is definitely
a guy who goes by what he sees on the field over measurables, and
I think Graham is more his type of guy than fellow tweeners Sergio
Kindle and Jerry Hughes are also possibilities here. Offensive line
will be a consideration here and so will defensive back, particularly
if they didn’t address it with the 13th pick.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Maurkice
Pouncey, C, Florida
President Art Rooney II has publically stated the team needs to
get better at running the ball; so addressing that will be a priority
in the draft. Pouncey could immediately provide an upgrade at guard
before replacing current C Justin Hartwig down the road and continuing
the great legacy of centers on the Steelers. The team values that
flexibility, and it’s the same reason G Mike Iupati could
be the selection here, as well. Bringing back Ryan Clark likely
means they won’t address safety with a high pick. An interesting
scenario would be C.J. Spiller falling to this pick. Spiller is
the perfect compliment to a north-south runner like Mendenhall and
brings the playmaking and return ability they just lost after shipping
WR Santonio Holmes out. This is the absolute floor for Spiller and
I have no doubt the Steelers select him over anyone else I expect
could realistically fall this far.
19. Atlanta Falcons – Derrick Morgan,
DE, Georgia Tech
An aging John Abraham and the failure of former first-round pick
Jamaal Anderson to develop in to a threat from edge leave defensive
end a significant need. While recent mid-round picks Lawrence Sidbury
Jr. and Kroy Biermann have some promise, GM Thomas Dimitroff is
unlikely to pass on the opportunity to acquire a potentially elite
end. Morgan is as solid a first-round pick as you’ll find.
Equally good as a pass rusher and against the run, his Combine performance
reinforced every positive view of him. Intelligence and character
complete a great package. However, he just doesn’t seem like
a special player to me, and why I struggle projecting him higher.
The other top ends will be a consideration here if the Titans select
Morgan instead. I’m sure they’d be just as happy to
get Jason Pierre-Paul. The latest buzz has LB Sean Weatherspoon,
who would also address a need, as the pick here. However, I can’t
see them passing on Morgan or Pierre-Paul if either is available
here.
20. Houston Texans –Earl Thomas, S,
Texas
It’s all about beating Peyton Manning in the AFC South and
the Texans need better defensive backs to do it. Thomas has gone
through the evaluation process in the shadow of safeties Eric Berry
and Taylor Mays, but packs plenty of talent, strength and instinct
in a slightly undersized frame. A natural ball hawk, he can also
play corner and the Texans need help at both spots, so he brings
them plenty of options as they continue to address the secondary
in free agency. The loss of Dunta Robinson makes it likely they
could also select one of the top true corners with this pick. Running
back is a bit of a wild card. Which Steve Slaton they believe is
the real one – the inspiring 2008 rookie or the injury-plagued
sophomore slumper of 2009 – dictates how early they add another
runner. I could see Ryan Matthews being a consideration, but if
C.J. Spiller falls, he just gives them another smaller back to pair
with Slaton. Defensive tackle is another position they may want
to address here, with plenty of good choices on the board, but they
probably have too much money invested in the front four already
to do that here. With the quality of secondary options that should
be available here, I’d be shocked if they selected something
other than a CB or S.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermaine Gresham,
TE, Oklahoma
Between injuries and the bust that was Chase Coffman, TE was an
unmitigated disaster in Cincinnati. Despite missing all of last
year with a knee injury, Gresham is the top TE prospect that adds
value as a blocker as well as a receiver. The anemic passing game
gets a boost with the addition of free agent WR Antonio Bryant,
but adding Gresham to the mix brings even more potential and flexibility
to the offense. Defensive tackle and safety will also be prime considerations
here. I can easily see this spot stopping S Taylor Mays from dropping
further.
22. New England Patriots – Sergio Kindle,
OLB, Texas
A pass rusher at OLB makes so much sense here that it almost certainly
won’t happen. As I mentioned in my previous mocks, HC Bill
Belichick typically eschews drafting a tweener high. However, Kindle
is a versatile player, able to handle the run and pass, in coverage
or blitzing, as well as work inside. The team needs a playmaker
on the edges of their 3-4 and Kindle has great potential here, but
I think he is a bit overvalued. Fellow tweeners Brandon Graham and
Jerry Hughes should also be considerations here. Hughes offers more
upside as a pass rusher, but is less versatile than Kindle at this
point. If they don’t go with an OLB, DT Jared Odrick as a
five-technique DE makes a lot of sense. Despite the fact they added
Daimone Lewis from Carolina, they’ve lost Richard Seymour
last year and Jarvis Green this year and need to do something about
their run defense. Odrick is a Belichick guy – a big, versatile
lineman who is a team player. On the other side of the ball, the
cupboard at TE behind an aging Alge Crumpler. They’ve gone
TE in the first round a couple times under Belichick, so Jermaine
Gresham could also be the pick. I think they wait until the second
round to address WR, unless Dez Bryant is available here.
23. Green Bay Packers - Kyle Wilson, CB,
Boise State
Al Harris will be 36 before the season ends and is coming off a
devastating knee injury in November. While Charles Woodson is coming
off a season that saw him voted Defensive Player of the Year and
hasn’t missed a game in two years, he turns 34 this season
and is a constant presence on the injury report. Wilson confirmed
he was a shutdown corner at the Senior Bowl and adds value as a
returner. After not running at the Combine, he performed well in
all the tests and drills, including two sub-4.5 40 times. My biggest
concern is the Packers seem to prefer bigger corners for their scheme.
At 5’10” flat and under 200 pounds, Wilson doesn’t
fit the profile and they may look at a player like CB Chris Cook
later instead and address OLB or OT here. The Packers allowed the
most sacks in the league last year and many expect the Packers to
address offensive line here. However, they re-signed both LT Chad
Clifton and RT Mark Tauscher. Considering the sack total, bringing
their tackles back might not seem like a good decision, but Tauscher
didn’t sign with the team until mid-season due to an injury
and the protection improved after he joined. While it wouldn’t
be a surprise to see them select an offensive tackle here, the signings
of Clifton and Tauscher give them options at addressing other needs
with their first pick and taking a developmental prospect for the
line later. An OLB to replace Aaron Kampman, like Jerry Hughes,
is another possibility.
24. Philadelphia Eagles –Everson Griffen,
DE, USC
HC Andy Reid loves drafting defensive linemen early and this year
should be no different. There is plenty of first-round talent available
on the defensive line this year and some should be left for Reid
to choose from here. Other than Trent Cole, their collection of
ends features a shaky coalition of role players who may have overachieved
a bit in recent years and have, or should be expected to, return
to the mean in their performance. Griffen didn’t live up to
his potential in college, but his performance at the Combine confirmed
he definitely still can at the next level. If Derrick Morgan or
Jason Pierre-Paul falls, clearly they would be in the mix, and I
also think Carlos Dunlap will start to be a serious consideration
around this pick. His combination of size and athleticism makes
him a great fit for an Eagles’ defense that likes to come
at you from all angles and could move Dunlap around the front seven.
After trading CB Sheldon Brown and losing OL Shawn Andrews, both
those positions could be considerations here and could still represent
best player available. LB Sean Weatherspoon could be the pick too,
but as much as Reid likes drafting linemen early, he dislikes drafting
linebackers early. Look for a developmental prospect at QB later
in the draft; no way he makes a move like taking Tim Tebow here.
Kevin Kolb is his man.
25. Baltimore Ravens - Jerry Hughes, OLB,
Texas Christian
The acquisition of Anquan Boldin frees them up from possibly reaching
for a WR and gives GM Ozzie Newsome the flexibility to do what he
does best, clean up the mistakes of others by grabbing falling quality.
Perception of Hughes fell a bit as his production decreased in 2009
after leading the nation in sacks with 15 in 2008. Still, he had
11.5 sacks last year and is one of the best pure pass rushers in
this draft class. While undersized to remain a defensive end in
a 4-3, he looks like the perfect fit to follow the same path as
Terrell Suggs in a successful conversion to 3-4 rush linebacker.
Last year’s second round pick, Paul Krueger, is bulking up
to focus on playing DE instead of OLB, so this addressing this position
is also a need. There are also strong indications DT Jared Odrick
could be the pick here as the five-technique DE where depth is thin
and a versatile player for their multiple fronts. The other likely
selection is at corner, where Fabian Washington and Ladarius Webb
are both coming off torn ACLs, and with Samari Rolle released as
expected, it’s a position the Ravens are already lacking the
talent they are used to there. Newsome is a big fan of Alabama HC
Nick Saban and former Tide CB Kareem Jackson could be the selection.
The team reportedly has also shown a strong interest in rising CB
Devin McCourty, so he could also be the pick. I could also see CB
Patrick Robinson ending the two-year absence of Seminoles from the
first round. If they don’t go defense, TE Jermaine Gresham
would make sense, as I expect them to address that position at some
point in the draft.
26. Arizona Cardinals - Sean Weatherspoon,
LB, Missouri
No team was hit harder by the departure of several key players this
offseason. With Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen off the board, the
team isn’t likely to address QB with this pick. They seem
to prefer to bring in some cheap competition for Matt Leinart. They
picked up a third round pick in their trade of Anquan Boldin to
the Ravens and that fits nicely with the third-round tender needed
for San Diego back-up QB Charlie Whitehurst, for which they are
reportedly negotiating. Their depth at WR made accommodating a Boldin
trade possible, so they aren’t likely to address that position
here with so many other needs. They signed Kerry Rhodes to replace
the departed Antrel Rolle, a move I like a lot. While they could
use some help at offensive line, LB is their biggest need. On the
outside, Bertrand Berry has retired and they are not expected to
resign free agent Chike Okeafor. While they added veteran Joey Porter,
he has already run in to trouble this offseason, so I can see a
pick like Sergio Kindle or Jerry Hughes making sense here. However,
they also spent two picks last year on edge rushers, Cody Brown
and Will Davis, who they should give a chance. The biggest loss
was WILB Karlos Dansby and Weatherspoon would be a good fit to replace
him. While some have criticized Weatherspoon as a potentially abrasive
locker room presence, I think he’ll actually bring the leadership
and identity they lack on defense with his mouth. In addition to
an offensive tackle, a security blanket TE for new starting QB Matt
Leinart could be the pick.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Mike Iupati, G,
Idaho
Iupati erased any doubts about his ability against superior competition
at the Senior Bowl. The release of penalty-prone LT Flozell Adams
and the significant injury history of RT Marc Comombo seem to indicate
an OT would be the selection here, but the team is high on Doug
Free to replace Adams and they really lack depth on the line, of
particular concern for a contender. Iupaiti can play tackle, but
is probably best suited to guard. A safety should also be a strong
consideration here.
28. San Diego Chargers – Ryan Matthews,
RB, Fresno State
Last year’s leading Division I FBS rusher came to the Combine
and proved his athletic ability is more than sufficient to provide
similar production at the next level. He likely erased any doubts
of being worth a first-round pick for this particular team, who
need to do something at RB after parting ways with Ladainian Tomlinson.
Whereas the Chargers previously had to be debating spending their
first-round pick to get Matthews, their biggest concern now is whether
or not he makes it to them, particularly past Houston. They also
let an aging and dinged-up Jamal Williams go, so NT becomes a significant
need. Adding Terrence Cody here is a very viable option.
29. New York Jets - Jared Odrick, DT, Penn
State
Having shored up CB with the trade for Antonio Cromartie, the Jets
should look for the best value in their front three or at pass-rush
linebacker. Odrick, who many expect to go higher, fits the bill
here as a five-technique DE. Other options include Carlos Dunlap,
who has the size to play end in a 3-4 and whose risk/reward gamble
starts to make sense here, or Brian Price. HC Rex Ryan is a top
player’s coach and a good fit for players with baggage like
Dunlap. Less of a need is a blitzing OLB, but Sergio Kindle or Jerry
Hughes could be in the mix if they fall.
30. Minnesota Vikings – Devin McCourty,
CB, Rutgers
After tearing his ACL late last season, there is concern that CB
Cedric Griffin won’t be ready for the start of the season.
On the other side, an aging Antoine Winfield struggled through an
injury-plagued season and even if he can return to being an elite
player, the lack of quality behind him was exposed when he was dinged
up. McCourty was a solid collegiate performer who turned heads with
his athleticism in the evaluation period and is a borderline first-round
pick. Although Pat Williams plans to return in 2010 at 37 years
old, addressing defensive tackle here and improving the depth makes
sense. The wildcard, once again, is Brett Favre. The assumption
is he returns next year, but if he decides to really, really retire
this time, that impacts the draft plan. I can’t see a scenario
where Jimmy Clausen falls this far, but the Vikings could be in
play to trade up if Favre makes a shocking announcement this week.
It could also be around where Tim Tebow is targeted, if a team doesn’t
want to risk waiting until Day Two. So regardless of if the Vikings
want him and what Favre does, this pick could be in play for another
team wanting Tebow. With a deep corner class, the Vikings would
probably be happy to trade down and get an option like Chris Cook
later, who they reportedly are very interested in, but isn’t
a first rounder.
31. Indianapolis Colts – Charles Brown,
OT, Southern California
A long offseason for the Colts after their Super Bowl loss has to
include considering the future at center after Jeff Saturday, who
turns 35 this year. If C Maurkice Pouncey were available, I could
see him being their preferred pick here. He comes from a complex
offensive system, and despite his disappointing Wonderlic score,
he clearly appears able to handle the challenging mental aspects
of the role on this team. He could step in as a guard while Saturday
plays out his career and then slide over to center. However, with
Pouncey gone, the team should look at OT. LT Tony Ugoh lost his
job last year and the tackle position is influx. Brown appears to
be climbing up draft boards based on potential and might not make
it to the second round. He didn’t demonstrate the athleticism
expected at the Combine from the former TE and has a disappointing
21 reps on the bench. However, he has a great frame with long arms
and is a nice developmental prospect, but probably not ready to
plug in at left tackle. The defensive line could likely be addressed
with this pick, while linebacker and the secondary could also use
some improvement in depth. I could see an undersized rusher they
will keep with his hand down, like Brandon Graham or Jerry Hughes,
being a nice fit if either falls. There is some speculation offensive
tackle could be the focus here with a strong group of prospects
after Tony Ugoh lost the LT job last year. However, the Indianapolis
Star pointed out OLine coach Howard Mudd has retired, so the once-promising
Ugoh might get a fresh start. The main concern with projecting an
offensive lineman at this pick is GM Bill Polian has never selected
an offensive linemen in the first round for the Colts.
32. New Orleans Saints – Taylor Mays,
S, Southern California
Mays gambled and lost coming back for his senior year. USC had a
tough season and his game was overanalyzed to the point his draft
value fell. He reminded people of his immense physical potential
with a great showing at the Combine and his stock is back on the
rise. I don’t believe he will be converted to an OLB, but
that is a need for New Orleans as well. With FS Darren Sharper still
an UFA and a possible target for the Jets if they don’t bring
in OLB Jason Taylor, the Saints could lose their playmaker in the
secondary. Mays will never be the ball-hawk Sharper is, but could
provide an intimidating presence instead. I think the Saints ideal
realistic potential scenario would be for LB Sean Weatherspoon to
fall to this pick.
Round Two  |
