Week 1
9/9/09
Defensive Line
- An offseason of legal posturing resulted in no resolution
to the four-game suspensions of several prominent players for
violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy related to their
use of StarCaps. With the issue still tied up in court, the
Vikings interior duo of Kevin
Williams and Pat
Williams, as well as the Saints’ end tandem of Will
Smith and Charles
Grant, will start this week. NFL spokesman Greg Aiello confirmed
all players will be eligible this week regardless of if a court
ruling occurs. However, this issue is far from over, as the
NFL continues to lobby for their collective bargaining agreement
to supersede any state court ruling, and make sure your roster
is prepared to lose all of them for up to four games at some
point this season. Of all the back-ups getting a boost if this
goes bad for the players involved, the one to grab off the waiver
wire is Saints’ DE Bobby
McCray.
- The shocking addition Richard Seymour from the Patriots
shakes up the Raiders DLine for a third time this preseason. Previously
a disgruntled Derrick Burgess was shipped to the Pats and Greg Ellis
came over from Dallas. Seymour should be starting at RDE, but he
doesn’t get much of a bump in value playing in a 4-3 because
it’s hard to see him surpassing the 50 tackles and 7.5 sacks
he got last year. Ellis moves to LDE and declines in value at the
anchor end while re-learning playing in a 4-3. Finally Trevor Scott,
who tied for the Raiders’ team lead in sacks (five) as a rookie
last season, loses an opportunity to be an every-down player and
his value is stagnant as a pass rush specialist (look for Seymour
to move inside on passing downs). In New England, we won’t
know for sure until their first game, but it sounds like Burgess
could be limited to a situational pass rush role, which hurts his
potential value. However, there have also been indications the Pats
could show more 4-3 looks this season (including the departure of
Seymour, a true 3-4 end, and addition of a speed rusher like Burgess),
in which case Burgess could see starter snaps.
- Osi
Umenyiora returns after missing last season with a knee
injury. Despite a recent run-in with new DC Bill Sheridan, Umenyiora
should be fine and remain one of the starting ends. DE Justin
Tuck remains in the upper echelon of all DLinemen that Umenyiora
should returns too, while the drop in value for Mathias
Kiwanuka could be less than expected. Despite starting all
16 games last season in place of Umenyiora, Kiwanuka’s tackle
numbers didn’t improve from where he was with almost half as
many starts his previous two years. His spike in value was due
to his 8.5 sacks, a number he should be able to come close to
as just a situational pass rusher with his progress in that
area with three years of experience and, like Tuck, the flexibility
to play anywhere in the front seven. However, what could hurt
Kiwanuka’s numbers more is the addition of Chris
Canty and Rocky
Bernard. Both can be interior rushers, requiring Tuck and
Kiwanuka to assume that role less this season, with Canty also
a far better option as the fourth end, allowing for a deeper
rotation.
- No reason to believe Antwan
Odom and Robert
Geathers show any more at end in Cinci this year. Third-round
pick Michael
Johnson, who was considered an elite prospect before a disappointing
final collegiate season in 2008, should become a starter sooner
than later and finish as the most productive DE on the Bengals
this year.
- Another rookie DE who should be a decent immediate contributor
is Lawrence Sidbury Jr. in Atlanta. Former first-round pick Jamaal
Anderson is a bust, at least as a pass rusher, and John Abraham
hasn’t proven to be the most durable player. L-Sid isn’t
ready for an every-down role, but had a good showing as a pass rusher
in the preseason and should see situational work right out of the
gate.
- Don’t underestimate the impact DLine coach Rod Marinelli
could have for the Bears. He could make the difference in helping
Alex Brown finally reach his double-digit sack potential, help DE
Mark Anderson recapture his rookie form, and motivate DT Tommie
Harris to play through the pain to be an elite tackle. Marcus Harrison
and Jarron Gilbert are two youngsters with high upside (for interior
linemen) who will benefit from proper tutelage and need to contribute
immediately.
- Don’t sleep on Washington’s supplemental draft
pick of DE Jeremy Jarmon in deep dynasty leagues. Aging Phillip
Daniels and Renaldo Wynn should both be gone next year, if they
make it through this one, and Chris Wilson is purely a pass rush
specialist. Even Andre Carter has been frustratingly inconsistent
throughout his career and could end up a cap casualty or in a situational
role next year. Jarmon projects as an anchor end and not an elite
pass rusher, so his fantasy upside is limited. However, he should
see playing time this season and on a fast track to start at LDE
next year.
Linebacker
- While Carolina MLB Jon Beason (MCL sprain) is confident
he’ll be ready for the season opener, the team has not expressed
the same certainty.
- Lawrence Timmons is dealing with a high ankle sprain
and expected to miss at least the Steelers’ season opener
on Thursday. After great production as a role player last year,
the consensus on the former first round pick is he should explode
in a starting role this year (replacing the departed Larry Foote
next to James Farrior inside), but this is an inauspicious start
and the injury could linger. Keyaron Fox should get the nod for
as long as Timmons is out. In his fifth season out of GaTech,
Fox is a special teams ace who is still looking to crack the starting
lineup on his second team. He is primarily a run-stopper who has
some value as a replacement simply from the defense he plays in,
but don’t burn a high waiver pick on him.
- I’ve been surprised at how Minnesota MLB E.J. Henderson
has been overlooked in redrafts this year. He firmly established
himself as a top 20 fantasy linebacker before the relatively minor
injury of dislocated toes, which he looked to be fully recovered
from in the preseason, derailed his 2008 season.
- After some bad press and injury problems in the preseason,
Kirk Morrison remains the starting MLB in Oakland and should remain
the consistent tackle machine he’s always been. Ricky Brown,
the surprise challenger for the MIKE job, starts at SLB.
- Philly gave Joe Mays, last year’s sixth-round pick,
the first opportunity to claim the MLB job after Stewart Bradley
was lost for the season with a torn ACL. However, Mays failed
to lock the job down and the Eagles will go back to the future
to give undersized Omar Gaither another chance at the role.
- Dhani Jones will remain the starting MLB in Cincinnati,
for now, while rookie Rey Maualuga will start at SLB.
- New DC Dom Capers brings his previously successful version
of the 3-4 to Green Bay and from what we’ve seen in the
preseason, I’m a bit nervous about the impact to inside
backers Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk. Barnett has been limited as
he returns from a major knee injury and there’s been talk
about how both will fit, particularly in passing sets. At this
point, I don’t want to overreact. Both are starters and
will get you tackles. However, I’m more likely to be swayed
by early results, as opposed to the patience I’d normally
have for a proven player who gets off to a poor start.
- As we head to press, Shawne Merriman is accused of smacking
around Tila Tequila. Between the steroids, the wobbly knee and
now this, Merriman has ascended to his own tier of high risk,
high reward. You can see why San Diego reached for rookie Larry
English in the first round. On the inside, the situation next
to Stephen Cooper is also unstable. Former platoon starter Matt
Wilhelm was released, so run-stopper Tim Dobbins has been battling
former Cowboy Kevin Burnett for the starting job. The latest indications
are Burnett could be an every-down player, which would make him
a nice addition off the waiver wire. I like upside of either player
if they get a shot on their own, but neither if they platoon.
- The Patriots saw significant turnover in their LB corps.
The retirement of Tedy
Bruschi opens the door for Gary
Guyton. As an undrafted rookie free agent last season, Guyton
made an immediate impression on special teams and eventually
got some reps on defense, starting two games late last year
filling in for an injured Bruschi. Guyton is a still a bit raw,
but has some nice physical tools (his sub-4.5 40 was the fastest
time for a LB at the 2008 Combine) and has shown a nose for
the ball (two fumble recoveries in limited snaps last season).
He is a big sleeper this year with nice low-risk, high-reward
potential in deep leagues. One of the most versatile football
players in the league, Mike Vrabel, was part of the trade to
KC involving Matt Cassel. This opens up a starting spot on the
outside that Pierre
Woods and Derrick Burgess, who came over from Oakland, will
share. Former third-round pick Shawn
Crable is out of the picture after being placed on the IR.
- The Jets front seven faces a tough start to the season
thanks to suspension. OLB Calvin Pace, who had a career-high seven
sacks last season, will miss the first four games for performance-enhancing
drugs. DE Shaun Ellis will miss the first game for a behavioral
suspension related to a marijuana-related arrest last year. The
big winner is former first-round pick Vernon Gholston, who gets
a fresh start in a new regime and the opportunity to start four
games in place of Pace. A good showing ensures more of a role
for Gholston the rest of the season, so picking him up could pay
dividends for more than four games.
- Tweener Matt Roth battled a mysterious groin injury in
the preseason (who some have alluded to the cause of being a desire
for a new contract) and has been placed on the reserve/non-football
injury list. That means he is unavailable for the first six games,
propelling prodigal son Jason Taylor from brink of retirement
to returning to a starting role in Miami. Look for Quentin Moses
in the deepest of leagues to spell Taylor at times and possibly
have a significant role if Taylor struggles to stay healthy.
Defensive Back
- Colts’ SS Bob Sanders (right knee) was on the active
roster, which is a good sign, but exactly when he’ll be
back remains a question. HC Jim Caldwell would only say he expects
him back earlier than the six weeks he would have missed if left
on the PUP. Melvin Bullitt should be a solid producer in place
of Sanders until then.
- Jermaine Phillips was progressing in his conversion to
LB and looked set to replace Derrick Brooks on the weak-side in
Tampa Bay, until Tanard Jackson was suspended for four games.
Phillips now returns to SS and Sabby Piscitelli will replace Jackson
at FS. The move secures starting roles at SLB for Quincy Black
and WLB for Geno Hayes.
- Roy
L. Williams is reunited with DC Mike Zimmer in Cincinnati
and has won the starting SS role. Williams had his best production
when Zimmer ran the D in Dallas.
- A knee injury to second-round pick William Moore cost
him an opportunity for a starting role in Atlanta. Instead, Thomas
DeCoud gets the opportunity to start at FS and versatile veteran
Erik Coleman will start at SS. Moore is back and healthy for the
start of the season, so DeCoud will have a short leash. If DeCoud
is bumped, Moore will start at SS and Coleman falls back to FS,
hurting his fantasy value.
- One of the more surprising cuts was Bernard Pollard in
Kansas City. The hard-hitting safety apparently was too much of
a liability in coverage and the team opted for injury-prone veteran
Mike Brown as a starter instead. Ironically, Brown’s former
team, Chicago, would make a lot of sense for Pollard, as the Bears
have struggled in sorting their safety situation without Brown.
- It was good news that CB Charles Tillman starts the season
on the active roster in Chicago, but his back is still a concern
and his status for their Sunday night opener is uncertain. Former
Pro Bowler Nathan Vasher, who has been relegated to slot corner,
would get the start if Tillman can’t go. Starting opposite
Tillman is Zack Bowman, one of the more intriguing young players
who has flashed brilliant playmaking ability in limited opportunities.
Safety is more of a mess, where rookie sixth-round pick Al Afalava
was the most impressive in the preseason and may have worked his
way in to a platoon at SS. Hard-hitting Kevin Payne remains the
nominal starter there, but the team is surprisingly looking at
him more at FS, despite insinuating Danieal Manning will start
at FS in the base package and move to nickel corner in passing
situations. Inexplicably out of the picture appears to be Corey
Graham, who stepped up huge in place of Vasher last season. It’s
hard to believe he won’t factor in somewhere in the defensive
backfield quickly in to the season.
Position Eligibility
The complex and variable defensive schemes employed in the NFL
have made identifying the position of a player ambiguous, at best,
on some teams. If your league bases position eligibility solely
as listed on your stat provider’s website, it is a good
time to take stock of your roster and the waiver wire for players
who may be recognized at a more beneficial position based on your
scoring system. For example, in leagues where sacks are undervalued,
a player who is listed as a DE, but will be more often line up
as a LB, is likely to have more tackles and be more valuable,
even though he may rush the passer less.
More on Rookies
For more detail on the top new faces, check out my preseason
preview of IDP rookies:
|