Every year, rest assured someone at some point during each of
your drafts will utter some variation of the words “value
pick.” But what exactly is a value pick? What is value?
Value is a relative term that changes based on public perception.
When I consider value, I’m looking for a positive return
on my investment. Just because a player has an a 4th round ADP
and is still available in the 6th round does not make him good
value. At the same time, taking a player a round or two above
his ADP is not necessarily bad value.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
have a higher ADP the following season. Last season, Devonta
Freeman had an 8th round ADP. This year, he has a 2nd round
ADP. Freeman gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment.
On the flip side, Jeremy
Hill had a 2nd round ADP. This year, he has a 6th round ADP.
That’s the type of pick we all hope to avoid.
Let’s take a look at which running backs I expect to outperform
and underperform their ADPs.
Thomas Rawls (ankle) is back at practice
and has a golden opportunity to return RB1 value.
The case for Rawls being undervalued:
Rawls led the NFL in yards per carry amongst qualified running
backs in 2015 and Beast Mode has retired.
The case against Rawls being undervalued:
Seattle is likely going to pass more this year and the Seahawks
drafted three running backs that could eat into Rawls’ workload.
Verdict: Rawls does not catch passes.
But when you average 5.6 yards per carry, I don’t care if you
catch a bunch of passes. Rawls was unstoppable after he took over
for Marshawn
Lynch midway through 2015. He was on pace for a monster second
half until his season was derailed by a gruesome ankle injury.
I firmly believe Rawls would be a mid-second round pick had he
not gotten hurt. In fact, if the Seahawks weren’t so mum on his
status up until August 15 when Rawls finally returned to practice,
his ADP would be higher. If Rawls receives 250 carries this season,
he is capable of amassing 1300-1400 yards. Since he happens to
play on a fantastic offense, he’s a good bet to cross the goal
line double digit times as well. Those are high-end RB1 numbers.
For a player currently going just outside the top 12 at his position,
he has a great chance for a top 20 overall finish. The recent
reports regarding Christine
Michael’s potentially increased role should only further depreciate
Rawls’ value. Now is your opportunity to strike.
The case for Murray being undervalued:
He’s the unquestioned lead back slated for significant volume
in a rising offense.
The case against Murray being undervalued:
He plays in a tough division and could cede passing down work
to rookie DeAndre
Washington.
Verdict: I am quite high on Murray; higher than most. He is a
rare case of high-floor and high-ceiling. We’ll start with the
floor. Murray has little threat to his workload. I don’t want
to hear how DeAndre
Washington is going to steal his carries. He’s not. If the
Raiders thought that running back was an area of need, they would
have done more for their backfield than release Roy
Helu and spend a fifth round pick on a running back. That’s
a vote of confidence in Murray. He touched the ball over 300 times
last season and I see no reason he can’t get close to that number
again. Jack Del Rio recently went on record to say he wants to
give Murray even more carries this year. He totaled just over
1300 rushing and receiving yards last season and now is running
behind an improved offensive line (currently ranked in the top
five). On we go to his ceiling. In an improving offense, Murray
could easily see his yards per carry jump from the 4.0 he averaged
in 2015 closer to the 5.2 he averaged in limited action as a rookie.
The ypc jump along with a small spike in touchdowns due to the
better offense could jump Murray to a 1500-yard, 10-touchdown
season. The Raiders also have a very friendly out of division
schedule (@ NO, ATL, @TEN, @BAL, @ JAC. @TB, BUF). Murray is currently
the 15th RB off the board. I have him ranked 7th at the position.
Draft and enjoy.
The case for Hyde being undervalued:
He performed better than expected in 2015 despite being injured
and running behind the worst run blocking offensive line in football.
The case against Hyde being undervalued:
The 49ers offense more closely resembles a practice squad than
a professional football team.
Verdict: Almost all of the hate towards Hyde stems from the 49ers
deplorable offense. While that isn’t entirely unjustified,
Hyde has the talent and will see the volume to overcome his team.
Hyde was incredibly efficient last year, even with a broken foot
(stress fracture), and similarly poor talent around him. He does
very well before contact and is even more impressive after he’s
hit with almost 70 percent of his yardage in his first two seasons
coming after contact. And for all of the heat Chip Kelly takes
(as a personnel manager – it’s justified), his offensive
system produces rushing totals. Hyde is going to be a three-down
back in Chip Kelly’s supersonic offense and what he may
lose in touchdowns and his presumed lack of pass catching he will
make up for in volume. Hyde has proven to be highly effective
running out the shotgun, which Chip Kelly uses almost exclusively,
as Hyde spent his entire career running in a similar scheme at
Ohio State. He is currently the 17th RB off the board. I expect
him to return top 10 value and have him ranked 8th at the position.
For those of you that start out WR-WR in your draft, if you grab
Hyde and Murray rounds 3-4, you could find yourself in a position
of power by midseason.
The case for Miller being overvalued:
Miller has never been trusted as a workhorse running back.
The case against Miller being overvalued:
Historically, Miller has been very efficient and should see a
workload increase in Houston.
Verdict: Miller is a good, not great player in what appears to
be a fantastic situation. The biggest criticism against Miller
during his time in Miami was their apparent failure to use him
like a feature back. There were many games where Miller would
dominate early and then be inexplicably taken off the off the
field. Why would the Miami coaching staff not give a guy with
a career 4.6 ypc more carries? Now he’s in Houston where
Arian Foster (who ironically has replaced Miller in Miami) was
fed incredible volume for years and the expectation is Miller
will see similar volume and thrive. My response to that is…maybe?
Here is what we know: Lamar Miller has been very efficient with
the touches he has been given. We also know that two Dolphins’
coaching staffs, separately and individually, decided to not give
Miller a true feature back workload. We do not know if Miller
can maintain his past level of productivity with more volume and
the Texans are working a new quarterback into the system. I think
a lot of assumptions are being made about Miller’s new circumstance
and that’s a lot of uncertainty to be investing a first
round pick on. Miller’s ADP has spiked to the 4th RB selected.
In similar draft spots, I’d prefer RB Ezekiel Elliott; or
Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson or Brandon Marshall at the wide receiver
position. Miller will not have a bad year but his expectations
have gotten too high.
The case for Langford being overvalued:
Langford displayed mediocre ability his rookie season and must
fight for opportunities in a crowded backfield.
The case against Langford being overvalued:
Langford takes hold of the starting job and forces John Fox to
abandon his RBBC approach.
Verdict: I don’t know how I can possibly say this nicely – Jeremy
Langford stinks. I know. That’s not exactly insightful analysis.
Harsh? Yes. True? Let’s find out. Langford averaged 3.6 ypc as
a rookie. That’s not very good. Amongst qualified backs, he ranked
bottom five. How did he do making guys miss? He forced seven missed
tackles last year… on 148 carries, worst in the league. Did he
run through defenders? Nope. He was worst in the league in yards
after contact. Can he catch passes? He led all running backs in
drop rate. Finally, the Bears drafted Jordan
Howard, still have Jacquizz
Rodgers and Ka’Deem
Carey, all of whom will see snaps. Perhaps Langford makes
sudden improvements on all of his deficiencies and makes me look
like an idiot. All I can do is report what I see and what the
numbers say. He’s the 24th RB taken on average but I’d pass on
Langford for the majority of running backs in the top 50.
The case for Abdullah being overvalued:
He was mediocre as a rookie and could fumble his way to the bench
on any given Sunday.
The case against Abdullah being overvalued:
He’s still penciled in atop the depth chart and the Lions figure
to run more with an improved offensive line and no Calvin
Johnson.
Verdict: He got me with that preseason run against the Jets last
season. I was in. All aboard the Ameer
Abdullah hype train. Week 1 rolled around and he put that
shifty move on the Chargers on his way to the end zone. Look how
smart I am! Oops. Abdullah wouldn’t rush for another score until
Week 15 against the Saints. He struggled with fumbles and inefficiency
and found himself on the bench more often than not. Abdullah only
had six games where he saw double-digit carries with a season-high
of just 16. He started to perform better down the stretch last
season, but those performances came against poor run defenses
and he still wasn’t seeing the workload necessary to produce relevant
fantasy numbers. His ADP is currently late 7th round so the cost
isn’t prohibitive, but what exactly are you hoping for?
The Lions signed Stevan Ridley to further muddy the waters in
the backfield. While I don’t expect him to carve out any
significant role, he could see 2-4 carries a week. Zach Zenner
is still in the mix, and looks far and away like the best running
back on the team. He has better hands than Abdullah and is a much
stronger runner. He should be the feature back with Theo Riddick
mixing in on passing downs, but the Lions will likely try and
force Abdullah into the offense. Speaking of Riddick, he is a
good bet for 60-plus catches, severely limiting any upside Abdullah
may have had in the passing game. So what we have is a two-down
back that isn’t built to handle a full workload with a more
capable player behind him. There are way too moving parts for
Abdullah to overcome in 2016. Even as the 33rd RB off the board,
I’ll pass.
