Quarterbacks
8/25/06
Joe provides his positional rankings for dynasty leagues in this
multi-part series. He assesses these players according to three
categories—long term, short term, and job security. Joe will
update these rankings periodically throughout the year.
When building a Dynasty team, it's important not only to consider
what a player’s immediate impact will be, but also to look
ahead and project his status a few years from now. In this portion
of "Win Your Dynasty League", our focus will be on the
quarterbacks. Which ones can guide you to a championship now? Which
ones will be atop the list in a few seasons? Which QBs are rapidly
descending the Dynasty ranks? There's no formula to give you definitive
answers to these questions, but educated guesses can be made based
on their surrounding talent, their offensive system, their age,
and the level of commitment a franchise has in their signal caller
(often dictated by the player’s contract). These factors should
all come into focus when acquiring players for your Dynasty team.
Here's a run down of the quarterbacks and things to consider if
you own, or have interest in owning, the following players.
1. Peyton Manning, IND
Long Term View (LTV): The older
Manning provides great value over the long haul. Although he has
already spent 8 years in the league, at the age of 30, he will remain
among the best at his position for another 4-6 seasons. Marvin Harrison
will be 34 come opening day, but should remain a reliable target
in the Colts passing attack for another 2-3 years. As Harrison's
skills decline with age, it appears Reggie Wayne is capable of following
in his footsteps as Manning's lead receiver.
Short Term View (STV): Manning
has been among the top fantasy quarterbacks since entering the league
and this season should be no different. The loss of Edgerrin James
in the backfield may make it more difficult for Manning to reach
the totals we've become accustomed to, but as his passing attempts
rise, so will his yardage. Expect another 4,000 yards and 25 plus
TDs this year.
Job Security (JS): Manning won't
be losing his job anytime soon. He's locked up with the Colts for
a while, so there's no need to worry about a change of address either.
2. Tom Brady, NE
LTV: Brady is among the best,
if not the best, quarterbacks in the NFL. While his production from
week-to-week never seems to jump out at you like Manning's, there's
something to be said for the consistent performances he provides.
When you realize he has thrown for more than 3,600 yards in each
of the past 4 seasons, while tossing 26 or more touchdowns a year
within that same time span, it's hard to argue against him.
STV: Brady is coming off a season
in which he threw for a career high 4,110 yards. With the addition
of Laurence Maroney to the Patriots backfield, the team may not
need to pass as much this season. Brady however, remains a safe
bet to throw for some 3,700 yards and around 25 touchdowns.
JS: The three-time Super Bowl
winner will have the Patriots starting QB position locked up for
quite some time.
3. Carson Palmer, CIN
LTV: Palmer is just beginning to enter the prime of his career.
In just his second season as the Bengals starter, the young signal
caller already cracked the 30-touchdown plateau and threw for more
than 3,800 yards. In Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzedah, he has
one of the best receiving tandems in the league. He also has a talented
duo in the backfield with Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry. The Bengals
are well stocked on offense with a group of players that should
remain together for another 2-3 seasons. The only cause for concern
going forward with Palmer is the condition of his knee. Over the
long run, it doesn't appear as if it's something that will cost
him a successful career.
STV: As mentioned above, Palmer is coming off a stellar season and
surrounded by a talented group of players. His short-term value
takes a hit however because of the concerns about his knee. If someone
were to offer you fair value in return, it may be worth accepting
rather than waiting out his return from the knee injury. I wouldn't
sell him at a discount however. Sooner or later Palmer is likely
to return to form, and when he does he'll be among the best fantasy
quarterbacks available.
JS: Palmer is the Bengals franchise quarterback and will be their
starter for a long time. The only thing that would cost him the
position is lingering effects from the injury he suffered in the
playoffs last season. I wouldn't be overly concerned with that though.
His rehab is going well and it's expected he'll be starting sooner
rather than later.
4. Donovan McNabb, PHI
LTV: McNabb plays in a pass-first offense and his coach, Andy Reid,
is expected to remain in Philadelphia for the foreseeable future.
This being the case, and knowing McNabb has been among the best
fantasy QBs over the years while playing in Reid's system, there's
little reason to expect a drop off in his production any time soon.
McNabb will also have the rare luxury of playing for the same coach,
and within the same system, for the first ten years of his career.
In that regard, his best seasons could still be ahead of him.
STV: While Terrell Owens is no longer a weapon at McNabb's disposal,
Brian Westbrook remains one in Philadelphia. The loss of Owens will
certainly lower McNabb's touchdown totals, but in the pass-first
attack run by Reid, he will have plenty of opportunities to make
plays with his arm. He is also likely to go back to running a bit
more this season. Last year his mobility was limited due to an abdominal
tear suffered early in the year that later caused him to miss the
final seven games. In 2004, there wasn't as much need for him to
take off due to the presence of Owens.
JS: At the age of 30, McNabb has at least another 4-6 seasons locked
up as the Eagles starting quarterback.
5. Eli Manning, NYG
LTV: The younger Manning is just 25 and entering his second season
as the Giants starter. Last year, he threw for an impressive 3,762
yards and 24 touchdowns. Despite a poor finish over the last quarter
of the season, Manning is a young, developing quarterback that will
become a consistent Top 10 performer at the position in the coming
years. He has the upside of cracking the Top 5 on a regular basis
as well.
STV: Surrounded by Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey,
Manning will have plenty of options in the passing game. Likely
to finish among the Top 12 QBs this season, he could crack the Top
6 if he works out his accuracy issues.
JS: Acquired via trade with the San Diego Chargers for Philip Rivers
on draft day in 2004, Manning is expected to be the Giants starting
QB well into the future.
6. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
LTV: With Darrell Jackson and Shaun Alexander locked up for a while
in Seattle; Hasselbeck will remain surrounded by talented players
for a few years. Mike Holmgren is expected back for a few more seasons
as well, meaning Hasselbeck will be kept in a familiar system. With
a stable cast around him, Hasselbeck should be one of the more consistent
performers over the next 3-4 seasons.
STV: Hasselbeck finished strong last season as he guided the Seahawks
to the Super Bowl. He's a great start against weak secondaries--and
a solid play from week-to-week, making him one of the better fantasy
QBs around. If Nate Burleson can establish himself in the offense,
Hasselbeck may see an increase from last year’s production.
JS: Hasselbeck is signed through 2010 with the Seahawks, and even
if they wanted to get rid of him, they probably couldn't afford
it. There's no reason to think he won't be starting in Seattle throughout
the remainder of his deal. At the age of 30, he may even be entering
the prime of his career.
7. Daunte Culpepper, MIA
LTV: There was a time when Culpepper joined Manning at the top of
this list. In fact, it was only a year ago, before Culpepper suffered
through an atrocious 2005 season. He has since had a change of address,
being traded from Minnesota to Miami in the off-season. Culpepper
will need to show he can return to form following off-season knee
surgery, but reports of his rehab have been positive and he may
be ready for the opener. With Chris Chambers, Randy McMichael and
Ronnie Brown surrounding him on offense, there's good reason to
be optimistic about Culpepper rebounding from his last days as a
Viking.
STV: While the change of scenery should be beneficial to Culpepper,
he still needs to show he can go on his knee at the start of the
season. It may take some time for him to get the new offense down,
but he should perform as a Top 10 QB more times than not in games
he starts. If he's able to run around like he did in Minnesota,
he could be a gem this season, but the lingering effects from knee
surgery will likely keep him from scrambling frequently.
JS: The Dolphins sent a 2nd round pick Minnesota's way in exchange
for Culpepper in the off-season. Barring a serious set back with
his knee; he'll be Miami's starting QB for a while.
8. Marc Bulger, STL
LTV: Bulger is 29 years old and is capable of being a starting QB
in the league for another 5-6 years. He remains the Rams starter
for the 2006 season, and is signed through 2007. With the hiring
of new head coach Scott Linehan; Bulger will need to perform well
in the new offense in order to remain in St. Louis. If he struggles
over the next season or two, or fails to turn around the Rams recent
woes, its possible Bulger could be a free agent heading into 2008.
Injuries to Bulger's right shoulder in each of the past two seasons
are also reason for concern going forward.
STV: While Bulger is going through the process of learning a new
offense, there is reason to believe he can find success in it quickly.
He still has talented wide receiver, Torry Holt, in the passing
game and Steven Jackson in the backfield. Isaac Bruce and Kevin
Curtis are strong 2nd and 3rd options at WR. Linehan has worked
well with QBs in the past--another reason to believe Bulger will
succeed under him.
JS: As noted earlier, Bulger's current contract only runs through
2007. If he goes through another injury-plagued season in the next
two years, the Rams may not be so quick to resign him. The Rams
passed on the chance to select Jay Cutler in this year’s draft,
which gives some reason to believe they want Bulger to stick around.
A poor season this year however, and the Rams might be looking at
QBs with their first pick in 2007. Bulger’s durability is
the key factor.
9. Drew Brees, NO
LTV: After signing a six-year deal with the Saints in the off-season,
Brees no longer has the luxury of LaDainian Tomlinson in his backfield.
Pro-bowl caliber RB Deuce McAllister, and number two overall pick
in the draft Reggie Bush, will fill the role instead. No longer
being coupled with a player of Tomlinson's magnitude would be reason
for any fantasy QB’s value to take a hit, but the presence
of Bush and McAllister should offset the loss. He'll miss out on
Antonio Gates at tight end, but Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth and
Devery Henderson may be able to make up for it at the WR position.
Bush and McAllister will also be active members in the passing game.
STV: The Saints fired Jim Haslett and replaced him with Sean Payton
in the off-season. It may take some time for the offense to adjust
to the new system, but Brees should become a better performer as
the season progresses. He has talented players surrounding him,
but it may take a few games before things begin to gel.
JS: The Saints signed Brees in the off-season instead of using the
number two pick in the draft on their QB of the future. He may never
see the last year or two of the deal, but expect him to be New Orleans
starter for another 3-4 years. If the franchise turns things around
in that span, he just might stick around.
10. Matt Leinart, ARI
LTV: Leinart may be a rookie, but the situation he was drafted into
makes him a top ten value at the QB position. Anquan Boldin and
Larry Fitzgerald are both young wide receivers that have already
established themselves among the leagues elite. They also added
Edgerrin James in the off-season to provide a boost to their ground
game. Kurt Warner is starting now, but he's old, injury-prone, and
isn't the future for the Cardinals.
STV: Leinart and the Cardinals had difficulties coming to terms
on a contract. It cost the rookie valuable practice time in camp,
and diminished hopes that he could take over early in the year.
Rookie quarterbacks rarely make an immediate impact as it is, but
with as frail as Warner has been in recent years, Leinart may get
his opportunity sooner than expected.
JS: Once signed, Leinart will
be the Cardinals franchise quarterback. Good or bad, you can expect
Arizona to stick by him for a while once he takes over. More…
Part: 1
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