Quarterbacks
8/25/06
Joe provides his positional rankings for dynasty leagues in this
multi-part series. He assesses these players according to three
categories—long term, short term, and job security. Joe will
update these rankings periodically throughout the year.
11. Michael Vick, ATL
LTV: At 26, there's still time
for Vick to develop as a quarterback in the league. Nevertheless,
his legs have been determining his level of success for his team
and fantasy owners alike. He hasn't been the ultimate fantasy weapon
some predicted following his rookie season, but the rushing totals
he accumulates throughout the year keep him among the top 12 available
Dynasty Quartberbacks.
STV: Over the past few years, Vick hasn't proven to be a reliable
starter from week-to-week. While his yearly totals may place him
among the top 12 QBs, he is a hit or miss play on Sundays. This
makes him either a valuable backup, or a borderline starter. When
he performs well, there's a good chance you'll win your game, but
his inconsistency due to increased durability concerns as a runner
can cause you to lose just as many.
JS: Vick's contract with the Falcons doesn't expire until 2013.
NFL deals aren't guaranteed, but Vick should be the Falcons starter
for a number of years. Yet, the Falcons turned down some sweet deals
for their highly regarded backup, Matt Schaub, who is a better passer
than Vick at this stage. If Vick can’t stay healthy for a
long stretch this year, or he takes a step backwards, it isn’t
out of the real of possibility that we’ll hear rumblings within
the organization that they should consider Schaub as their future.
12. Byron Leftwich, JAX
LTV: Jimmy Smith may have retired,
but Leftwich has a talented trio of young wide receivers to work
with moving forward. In addition to Reggie Williams, Matt Jones,
and Ernest Wilford the Jaguars also added another weapon to the
passing game with the selection of tight end, Mercedes Lewis in
the first round. With Fred Taylor and Greg Jones already proven
runners in the backfield, Jacksonville selected Lewis’ UCLA
teammate, talented back Maurice Drew, with their second round pick.
Leftwich needs to stay healthy for an entire season. He has made
strides in his game since entering the league, and is poised for
future success.
STV: Presently, Leftwich is an excellent backup in fantasy leagues
with the potential of performing as a starter on a weekly basis.
If the young talent he is surrounded by on offense comes together
right away, Leftwich could be one of the top QBs this season.
JS: Since drafting Leftwich, the Jaguars have gone from 5-11 to
12-4 in just 3 seasons. With another winning record, it's hard to
imagine the Jaguars and Leftwich not coming to terms on a contract
extension before his current one expires.
13. David Carr, HOU
LTV: Carr's first four years in
the league haven't been the most impressive, but then again he wasn't
drafted into the easiest situation. As the number one overall pick
in the 2002 draft, Carr was thrown into the starting job of the
Houston Texans in their expansion years. Gary Kubiak came from Denver
in the off-season to replace Dom Capers as Houston's head coach.
After serving under Mike Shanahan for the past 11 seasons as offensive
coordinator, his arrival should mean better results from Carr in
the years ahead.
STV: There's reason to be optimistic about the Texans offense under
Kubiak's guidance, but there are still question marks surrounding
the team. The O-line needs to improve drastically and there are
concerns at RB regarding Dom Davis' knee injury. It will take more
than one off-season to see the full benefit of Kubiak's arrival.
JS: If the Texans were going to part ways with Carr, this off-season
was the year to do it. Instead of releasing him and selecting a
QB with the first pick in the draft, they held onto the 4-year vet
and paid him an $8 million dollar roster bonus. His current deal
runs through the 2008 season.
14. Philip Rivers, SD
LTV: Rivers' has spent the better
part of the past two seasons backing up Drew Brees in San Diego.
Following Brees' departure as a free agent to New Orleans, he now
becomes the Chargers starting QB for the first time in his career.
With LaDainian Tomlinson in the backfield and Antonio Gates lining
up at TE, Rivers will have some of the best talent in the NFL at
their positions helping him out. The conservative approach of head
coach Marty Schottenheimer may limit him in some respects, but a
strong running game can be a quarterback's best friend--especially
a young one like Rivers.
STV: Don't be surprised if Rivers struggles a bit this season. It's
his third year in the league, but he's seen little time on the field
during that span. With Tomlinson and Gates surrounding however,
he could make for a valuable backup.
JS: Rivers is just beginning his career in San Diego as a starter.
Unless he proves to be a complete bust at the position, he will
be the Chargers starter for at least a few more seasons.
15. Jake Delhomme, CAR
LTV: Since joining the Panthers
as a free agent in 2003, Delhomme has proven himself capable of
being a starter in the league. He may never finish among the top
fantasy QBs, but you could do a lot worse than having him as your
starter. The presence of Steve Smith combined with a strong running
should keep him among the better QBs to own for a while.
STV: The Panthers added Keyshawn Johnson and DeAngelo Williams to
their roster in the off-season. With the lack of a reliable number
two receiver last year, and the frequency with which DeShaun Foster
finds himself on the injury report, both additions will make immediate
impacts and benefit Delhomme in the passing game.
JS: Delhomme is signed through the 2009 season with Carolina. With
no QBs on the roster currently threatening him for the starting
position, expect Delhomme to last another three years or so as the
Panthers starter. At the age of 31 however, it may difficult for
him to land a starting position should he and the Panthers part
ways after that span.
16. Jay Cutler, DEN
LTV: The Broncos traded up from
the 15th pick in the draft to the 11th in order to select Cutler
before missing out on the opportunity. While he may have been the
3rd quarterback selected in the draft, there were many scouts who
had him as their top rated QB. With Jake Plummer signed through
the 2009 season, it may take awhile for Cutler to see significant
time on the field, but he'll challenge Jake "The Snake"
in the years ahead. It wouldn't be a shock to see him named the
starter before Plummer's contract expires.
STV: If Plummer plays well, there
won't be need for Shanahan to play the rookie early in his career.
Plummer has struggled at times in the past however and should he
again anytime over the next three years, Shanahan could make the
decision to go with Cutler. An injury to Plummer could also place
the Vanderbilt product on the field earlier than expected.
JS: Cutler is the Broncos QB of the future. Once he takes over he'll
hold the spot for a few years before the Broncos decide on whether
or not to extend his contract.
17. Vince Young, TEN
LTV: Young was selected third
overall, and the first QB off the board in this year’s draft.
While there are many detractors of the Heisman winner out of Texas,
Young's success from a fantasy standpoint won't be measured by the
same parameters. His rushing ability will give him a fantasy edge
over other QBs that may prove more valuable to their NFL franchise.
STV: The Titans are not in position to make much of a playoff run
this year. For that reason, we might see Young starting some games
over the second half of the season. Outside of some impressive rushing
totals however, don't expect Young to be a reliable starter or backup
at any point in the year.
JS: Young is the Titans franchise quarterback. Within a year or
two he'll be starting and whether he delivers on the field or not,
he'll be given a few seasons to see if he develops as a pro quarterback.
18. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
LTV: With more and more speculation
about Bill Cowher's retirement at the end of the season, there's
reason to believe Roethlisberger could be playing in a new system
soon. During his first two seasons in the league he had the luxury
of playing in a conservative offense that relied heavily on a strong
rushing attack. At the moment, it's a bit of a double-edged sword
for fantasy owners. If he remains in such a conservative offense,
his fantasy production will always have a low ceiling. On the other
hand, playing in a more spread out attack means he'll have to prove
he can shoulder more of the offensive burden.
STV: For at least one more season,
Roethlisberger will be playing in Cowher's offense. This limits
his overall production, but he is still a solid backup in fantasy
leagues.
JS: It's not often that young
quarterbacks with a Super Bowl ring are let go from their team.
Expect Roethlisberger to be starting in Pittsburgh for a long time.
19. Chris Simms, TB
LTV: After being selected late
in the third round of the 2003 draft, it took Simms three seasons
to ascend to the top of the Buccaneers depth chart. With the success
Gruden has had with QBs in the past, there's reason to expect Simms
to be a productive NFL player under his guidance. At the moment
though, Simms is playing on a one-year contract tendered to him
in the off-season. If he plays well he could lock up the starting
position in Tampa Bay with a long contract extension. A poor season
however, and Simms may be looking for work in another city--and
there's no guarantee it will be as a starter. Needless to say, the
season ahead is an important one for Simms—it will shape the
direction of his NFL career.
STV: Simms plays in an offense run by one of the best coaches in
the league. He also has some talented players surrounding him in
Joey Galloway, Michael Clayton and Cadillac Williams. This will
be his first season entering training camp as the starter and the
extra reps with the first team should prove beneficial. Consider
him one of the better available back-ups at the moment. A breakout
season could push him into the Top 12 by the end of the year.
JS: As mentioned above, Simms is playing on a one-year contract
that was tendered to him as a restricted free agent. If the Buccaneers
want him to stick around, expect them to offer him an extension
during the season. A poor performance however, and Simms may be
reduced to a back-up role with another team in 2007.
20. Drew Bledsoe, DAL
LTV: At the age of 34, Bledsoe
is clearly closer to the end of his career than the beginning. With
the Cowboys signing of Terrell Owens in the off-season however,
Bledsoe remains capable of producing some of his best seasons in
the league. The cause for concern is how long the trio of Parcells,
Owens and Bledsoe will remain in Dallas. Owens signed a three-year
deal with the team in the off-season, but the Cowboys have outs
that will allow them to cut him after any year on his deal without
taking a big cap hit should the controversial receiver become a
problem. There's also speculation about this being Parcells’
final season with the Cowboys. If Owens pushes him beyond his limits,
it very well could be.
STV: After finding himself suspended for the final 9 games of the
season last year, don't expect Owens to push the limits quite that
far in Dallas. Barring injury, he should be on the field for all
16 games this season and Bledsoe will be the primary beneficiary
of his presence. With Owens on his side, Bledsoe could finish among
the best fantasy QBs in the league this year.
JS: When Bledsoe's contract expires following the 2007 season, he'll
be 36. At that age, Dallas may be looking for something younger
rather than choose to bring Bledsoe back for another season or two.
If another team offers Bledsoe a starting position when he becomes
a free agent, expect him to come back for another 2-3 years. He
may choose to retire however if he doesn't like the offers coming
his way.
Part: 1
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