11. Rudi Johnson, CIN
LTV: Johnson will turn 28-years
old a month into the season, and his contract expires with Cincinnati
in 2009. The Bengals also used a second round pick on Auburn University
running back, Kenny Irons in this year’s draft. With the selection,
it's possible the Bengals are planning ahead for when the time comes
that Johnson is no longer with the team. At the moment, it appears
there is a good chance he may not be with the Bengals as their primary
back after his current contract.
STV: Johnson's short-term value
compares much in the same fashion Larry Johnson's does with the
Chiefs. While his future is uncertain following the 2009 season,
he should remain a consistent threat to rush for 1250 yards or
better until that time. He's also a back that could score 10-12
touchdowns a season on a regular basis. There are a few reasons
to shy away from Johnson in dynasty drafts, but his value at this
point makes him a worthwhile selection that could push your team
to the playoffs in each of the next three seasons.
JS: Johnson will be 30 at the time his current contract expires
with the Bengals. At the moment, there's good reason to believe
that may be his last season with the team.
12. Willis McGahee, BUF
LTV: After three moderately
successful seasons in Buffalo, McGahee now finds himself a member
of the Baltimore Ravens. As he joins their offense, it's likely
they expect him to make an immediate impact, and carry the ball
nearly 300 times a season. At the current age of 25, McGahee could
very well have his best years ahead of him over the next 4-5 years.
Much may depend on the health of quarterback Steve McNair, during
the next year or two. The Ravens will also need a competent replacement
to step in for him once he retires. If Baltimore's QB position
is unstable, it will hamper McGahee's production.
STV: Playing behind a better offensive line than he has in the
past, expect McGahee to average a career high in yards per carry,
and finish with 1200-1300 yards rushing this year. He should see
an increase in his touchdown production as well, averaging 7-10
of them a season over the next few years.
JS: Once the Ravens acquired McGahee from the Bills they signed
him to a contract extension that could keep him with the team
until 2013. The last two years of the contract are option years,
but it's clear Baltimore plans on using McGahee as a workhorse
back and prime contributor to their offense in the years ahead.
13. Willie Parker, PIT
LTV: Parker enters the new year coming off a very impressive season
for himself. He rushed for nearly 1500 yards, and scored 13 touchdowns
on the ground. He also contributed 31 receptions, for 222 yards,
and another 3 scores through the air. By carrying the ball 337
times and starting all 16 games for the Steelers, he also proved
to be a durable running back capable of handling 20 carries a
game. When his current contract expires he will be 29 years old.
If he matches last year's production over the next year or two,
Pittsburgh may wish to extend his deal before then. Pay attention
to the running backs Pittsburgh drafts during that time to see
if they use early picks on a potential replacement for Parker.
Whether he remains in Pittsburgh or not, there's a strong possibility
he'll land a starting job somewhere if continues to produce as
he did in 2006.
STV: Bill Cowher is no longer the Steelers head coach after more
than a decade long run with the team. It remains to be seen how
his departure will affect the play of the offense, but Parker
is expected to rush for nearly 300 carries again this season.
If he continues to rush for roughly 4.5 yards per carry, he should
finish with about 1350 yards rushing this season. He may also
reach double-digits in touchdowns for a second year in a row.
JS: Parker's current deal runs through the 2009 season. It's
expected he'll remain the Steelers primary running back until
that time, and will likely have a few more seasons left in him
as a starter afterwards.
14. Clinton Portis, WAS
LTV: Portis finds himself in
one of the more unique running back situations in the NFL. After
injuries derailed his 2006 season, Ladell Betts emerged as a productive
player in the Redskins backfield. With some questions still surrounding
Portis and his health for the upcoming year, there are doubts
about how productive he will be this season. Also playing a role
in that way of thought is the Redskins decision to sign Betts
to a long-term deal during the off-season. Still, Portis' youth
and production over the first four years of his career are too
great to be ignored. If he falls to this point in your dynasty
draft, he could very well be a bargain. He's more than capable
of producing as a top 5-10 running back in the years ahead when
healthy. Concerns over tendonitis in his knee, and how Betts will
factor into the offense in the years ahead are the only reasons
for him slipping in the rankings at the moment. However, they
may prove to be erroneous concerns.
STV: We'll have to see how Portis looks during training camp
and the preseason before making better judgement of how he'll
perform this season. He should push at least the 1000-yard mark
if healthy throughout the year, and is capable of doing much more
if he receives the necessary number of carries to accomplish such
tasks.
JS: Portis' current contract has him signed with the Redskins
through the 2011 season. Unless the Redskins trade him, he'll
remain a key factor in their offense regardless of Betts' presence.
15. Edgerrin James, ARI
LTV: Though James has been in the league for a long time, he still
remains a productive back capable of carrying the ball 20 times
a game. His first season in Arizona was a disappointment last
year, as he averaged a career low 3.4 yards per carry and scored
only 6 touchdowns. However, he continued to press on throughout
the season, finishing with 337 carries for 1159 yards, closing
out the year with three 100-yard performances in the final five
games. Though he'll be 31 years of age when his contract expires
after the 2009 season, he should consistently place among the
top 10-20 fantasy backs over the next three years.
STV: Coming off the most disappointing year of his career since
his 2002 season with the Colts, expect James to bounce back with
a strong season in his second year with Arizona. Ken Whisenhunt
will look for ways to keep feeding James the ball throughout the
year, and with a little bit of improved play from the O-line and
QB positions, James should have more scoring opportunities and
finish the season with close to 1300 yards rushing. There's a
good chance he'll record 40 or more receptions this year as well.
JS: James' current contract expires after the 2009 season. His
career beyond that point is cloudy, but until then he'll remain
the Arizona Cardinals featured back.
16. Cedric Benson, CHI
LTV: Benson enters his third
season in Chicago with his first opportunity to perform as the
teams featured running back. After splitting carries with Thomas
Jones last year, and carrying the ball just 67 times as rookie
in 2005, he'll need to produce in order for the Bears to make
a long term commitment to him past the 2009 season when his current
contract is set to expire. Though he has a lot to prove, his youth,
combined with the opportunity he has in front of him makes him
a difficult choice to pass on at this point of the list. He may
be a bust, but he could also develop into a consistent 1200 plus,
10 touchdown type of running back over the next 3 years. Right
now, it's a gamble worth taking.
STV: Benson's current value is a little murky. Though he has
been elevated to the starting halfback position following an off-season
trade of Thomas Jones to the New York Jets, he hasn't produced
enough in the past to have fantasy owners clamoring over him.
Until he does so, many owners will be wary of giving up much to
acquire him as a regular starter for them on a weekly basis. He
should finish with at least 1000 yards this season, and something
close to 10 touchdowns.
JS: This is a big year for Benson, though he's signed through
the year 2009, the Bears may look towards adding his replacement
in future drafts if they feel he doesn't meet expectations placed
upon him when they selected the former Texas Longhorn with the
4th overall pick in the 2005 draft.
17. Travis Henry, DEN
LTV: Henry signed with the Denver Broncos this off-season following
a strong year for himself with the Tennessee Titans in 2006. He
finished with over 1200 rushing yards, and averaged 4.5 yards
per carry as the Titans made their playoff push over the second
half of the season. At the age of 27, Henry still has some productive
seasons left for him in the years ahead. Playing within Mike Shannahan's
offensive system, expect him to produce as a solid number two
running back in fantasy leagues while he starts for Denver.
STV: Coming off a 1200-yard
season with the Titans, there's good reason to believe Henry will
at least match his statistics of a year ago with the Denver Broncos.
Mike Bell is going to get his share of carries during the season,
but Henry is likely to finish with 275-300 carries, and rush for
1200-1300 yards. He may split a lot of touchdown opportunities
with Bell, but expect Henry to finish with about 8 of his own
this year.
JS: Henry signed a 5-year deal with the Broncos in the off-season.
He may not play out the full length of that contract as the featured
RB of the Broncos, but for the next 2-3 seasons it appears he'll
be their guy.
18. Shaun Alexander, SEA
LTV: Alexander will be 30-years old by the start of the season,
and is coming off a year in which he averaged just 3.6 yards per
carry, while missing 6 games due to a cracked bone in his left
foot. Following a playoff loss to the Chicago Bears, it was revealed
that X-rays showed the crack was still present. While Alexander
insists the crack is not an issue, it must be a little unsettling
to fantasy owners hanging onto a 30 year-old that may, or may
not be playing on an injured foot. If he gets through this season
healthy, he may very well continue to produce as a top-10 fantasy
back for another year or two. However, his age combined with a
disappointing season last year, is driving his value down in dynasty
leagues at prior to training camp.
STV: If we take Alexander at his word, then he should finish
the season as one of the better fantasy backs in the league. The
main concern isn't necessarily over whether or not his foot issues
keep him from being on the field, but whether or not it contributed
to his career low 3.6 yards per carry last season. As long as
he's playing, there's a good chance he'll finish with 12-15 touchdowns
this season regardless of his YPC.
JS: Alexander has a contract that doesn't expire until the year
2013. While he may defy the odds and continue to produce as a
1200 yard back for another 3-4 seasons, don't expect him to remain
among the elite backs by the time his contract is up.
19. Marshawn Lynch, BUF
LTV: The first rookie to make
the list gets this billing not only because of his talents, but
also because of the situation he landed. With the Bills trading
Willis McGahee to the Baltimore Ravens during the off-season,
Lynch is in position to be Buffalo's starting halfback from day
one of his NFL career. Adrian Peterson may one day prove to be
the more valuable back, but Lynch is a rookie that can make an
immediate impact to your fantasy team and may be able of producing
as a valuable number two, and potential number one fantasy back
within the first few seasons of his career.
STV: Lynch isn't guaranteed
the starting position throughout the season, but he has already
taken snaps with the first team offense. With Anthony Thomas the
only other back expected to challenge him for playing time, it's
possible Lynch could finish with 1000-1200 rushing yards this
season and score 7-10 touchdowns as a rookie. How productive J.P.
Losman plays in his fourth season in the league may also factor
into the level of success Lynch achieves as a rookie.
JS: Lynch needs prove himself as an NFL caliber back before locking
down the job over the length over his contract, but there's no
question the starting position is his to lose.
20. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
LTV: With Tiki Barber's retirement
at the end of the year, Jacobs will now take over as the Giants
starter in the backfield. His 6'4", 264-pound frame makes him
a bruiser of a runner at the halfback position, but he also possesses
the ability to break a few long runs in games throughout the season.
He'll be 25 at the start of the year, with the opportunity to
cement him self as the Giants starter for years to come. His high-end
capabilities are as a back that rushes for 1400 yards and 12-15
touchdowns a year. A more realistic scenario may be expecting
1100-1200 yards from him on a consistent basis with 8-10 touchdowns
a season. It also remains to be seen if he can produce as a featured
back on a regular basis before fantasy owners get too caught up
in his potential.
STV: The Giants traded for Reuben
Droughns during the off-season as insurance should Jacobs disappoint,
or suffer an injury. While Jacobs will need to perform well enough
to keep Droughns at bay, he's expected to carry the ball anywhere
from 15-20 times a game. With that many carries, he should be
rushing for at least 1100 yards this year. There's a good chance
he'll finish with close to 10 touchdowns this season as well.
JS: A fourth round pick in the 2005 draft, Jacobs 4-year contract
he signed as a rookie is set to expire in 2008. If he has a strong
outing this year, the Giants may wish to sign him to an extension
before he hits the free agent market. But if he struggles as a
starter over the next two years, he'll likely miss the opportunity
to be more than a change of pace back during his career.
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