Joe provides his positional rankings for dynasty leagues in this
multi-part series. He assesses these players according to three
categories—long term, short term, and job security. Joe will
update these rankings periodically throughout the year.
1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Long Term View (LTV): At just
23 years of age, Fitzgerald has already registered 100 receptions,
1400 yards, and 10 touchdowns within a season. Though he's only
surpassed a thousand yards once, he would have duplicated that feat
in 2006 if not for a hamstring injury that forced him to miss 3
outings. As a rookie he started all 16 games, finishing with 58
receptions, 780 yards, and 8 touchdowns. New head coach Ken Whisenhunt
will bring a change to the Cardinals offensive philosophy that may
limit Fitzgerald's achievements in coming seasons, but he'll remain
a threat to post 80 plus receptions, along with 1100 or more yards
on a yearly basis. He's also proven himself to be a capable red
zone target, having averaged 8 touchdowns per season over the last
three years. Going forward, there's a good chance Fitzgerald will
rank among the top 12 receivers in fantasy leagues for a long period
of time.
Short Term View (STV): As mentioned,
Ken Whisenhunt's offensive philosophy may differ from that of
former Cardinals head coach Dennis Green. Nonetheless, Fitzgerald
is too talented a receiver to think the change will keep him from
performing at an elite level. Taking his production over the last
three years into account, 80 receptions, 1100 yards, and 7-10
touchdowns will be well within range for the upcoming season.
Job Security (JS): Fitzgerald's
current contract keeps him in Arizona through the 2009 season.
Expect the Cardinals to sign him to an extension before then.
2. Reggie Wayne, IND
LTV: There isn't much to make
one shy away from Reggie Wayne. His quarterback is Peyton Manning,
and over the course of his career he has always caught more receptions
than the previous season. If that streak continues, the seven-year
veteran will record upwards of 90 receptions in the years ahead.
At 28, he's entering a stage in which many receivers enter the
prime of their careers. He recently signed a long term contract
extension which keeps him in Indianapolis until 2011.
STV: Based on last years statistics
and the trend that's taken place with Wayne throughout his career,
there's good reason to expect at least 90 receptions and roughly
1300 yards from the former Hurricane. Ten touchdowns could be
within reach as well.
JS: Wayne's recent extension
gives him the opportunity to progress into Manning's lead receiver
as Marvin Harrison nears retirement. Should the franchise reach
a point where it needs to cut one of their two high priced wide
receivers, it's likely the older Harrison will be the one to go.
3. Chad Johnson, CIN
LTV: Johnson turned 29 last
January and is tied to Cincinnati for five more seasons. He'll
be 33 when his contract expires, which means he's locked in as
Carson Palmer's lead receiver through what should remain some
of the most productive years of his career. After three straight
seasons with 90 or more receptions, and 9 or more touchdowns,
2006 was actually a bit of a disappointing season for Johnson.
STV: Carson Palmer returned from tearing his ACL in a playoff
loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the end of the 2005 season
in just 8 months to start all 16 games for the Bengals last year.
Getting over the mental aspect of the injury may have contributed
to his mediocre start in 2006. If he comes out hot in 2007 it
will only contribute to the impressive totals Johnson posts.
JS: There's no reason to think Johnson won't remain with the
Bengals throughout the length of his current contract.
4. Lee Evans, BUF
LTV: In Evans' first two seasons
he served as Buffalo's second option at the receiver position,
taking a back seat to established veteran Eric Moulds. The role
didn't decrease the significant value he brought to the Bills
offense, however. He caught 97 receptions, totaling 1586 yards
and 16 touchdowns those first two years. In 2006, following Moulds'
release, Evans was expected to produce as a lead receiver in the
NFL and he didn't disappoint. Following a slow start, the former
Wisconsin Badger finished with 82 receptions, 1291 yards, and
8 touchdowns. He may not have 1300-yard seasons directly ahead
of him (it depends on the success of the offense as a whole),
but he is capable of such production. Should the Bills offense
continue to struggle as a unit, Evans still remains a reliable
option for 80 receptions, 1100 yards, and nearly 8 touchdowns
a season in the years ahead.
STV: J.P. Losman's progress
at the QB position will factor into Evans' production this season.
The fourth-year vet out of Tulane made significant progress in
comparison to his 2005 outings, but he needs to continue in that
direction if were to see Evans reach his full potential. As long
as he doesn't take a step backwards, we should see Evans match
last years totals.
JS: Evans current contract has him signed with Buffalo until
2009. If he hits the free agent market, he may see an increase
in value depending upon where he lands.
5. Steve
Smith, CAR
LTV: Smith recently signed a
three year contract extension that keeps him a Carolina Panther
through the 2012 season. Questions surrounding the Panthers QB
position may be reason to questions Smith's production throughout
the length of the deal, but he should remain one of more productive
receivers in the NFL for another 2-3 seasons without much concern.
Starting quarterback Jake Delhomme is signed through 2009, though
currently at the age of 32, its possible his best seasons are
already behind him.
STV: While Delhomme isn't among the elite quarterbacks in the
NFL, he's remained consistent and productive since becoming the
Panthers starter in 2003. He's also established a sound repertoire
in his familiarity with Smith over the years. As long as the two
remain together, Smith should continue to provide top value at
the receiver position over the next few seasons.
JS: Smith's extension would keep him in Carolina until he is
34 years old. Given the length of the deal, there's always a possibility
he'll be cut before then if his production drops off, but there's
no reason to think he won't remain there the next five seasons
or so.
6. Torry Holt, STL
LTV: At 31 years of age, Holt
still has quite a few valuable seasons left in him. While he's
no longer a young receiver, or even a middle aged one, players
the likes of Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Jimmy Smith, and Rod
Smith have shown receivers can continue racking up 1000 yards
and 80 receptions a season in their older age. Consider Holt one
of these types of players. His current contract is set to expire
in 2009, giving him at least three more seasons as the featured
receiver in Scott Linehan's offense. In that system, Holt will
remain a threat for 80-90 receptions, 1100-1300 yards, and 8-12
touchdowns over the next three years.
STV: The only cause for concern surrounding Holt in the upcoming
season is over his surgically repaired right knee. The ninth year
vet had torn meniscus cartilage repaired in February and is still
in the recovery process. The injury however, is not expected to
keep Holt him from missing any time in 2007. He should be ready
for training camp and participating in preseason games.
JS: Holt's current contract is set expire following the 2009
season. It's possible the Rams will sign him to a 2-3 year extension
before the deal expires. If not, he'll become a 33-year old free
agent heading into 2010.
7. Javon Walker, DEN
LTV: Walker's breakout season in 2004 was followed by demands
for a contract extension heading into 2005 with the Green Bay
Packers. Walker never got the extension, suffered a season ending
injury to his right knee during the opener, and was then traded
to the Denver Broncos during the 2006 draft.
Following the trade, Walker got the extension he was seeking
and responded with 8 touchdowns, 69 receptions, and 1084 yards.
He has five years remaining on his current deal. Given the success
receivers in Shanahan's system have had in the past, expect Walker
to improve upon last years statistics and rank among the elite
wide outs in fantasy football over the next few years.
STV: Jake Plummer's miserable
2006 campaign certainly contributed to Walker's yardage and reception
totals being lower than they could have been. Second-year QB Jay
Cutler has a lot to live up to this season, but it's hard to imagine
his play being any worse than Plummer's had been through the first
11 games of 2006. Walker could very well rank among the top 12
receivers this season.
JS: With a deal that doesn't expire until 2011, Walker will be
starting in Denver for a few more years.
8. Plaxico Burress, NYG
LTV: Burress is quickly approaching
his 30th birthday and may be a surprise being on this list this
high but when looking at the receivers left available, he's one
of the few remaining that can be foreseen posting 1200 yards and
10 touchdowns on a yearly basis. Though he has only three, thousand-yard
seasons to his credit during his seven-year career, it was just
two years ago that Burress totaled 1214 yards and scored 7 touchdowns
in his Giants debut. If Eli Manning can ever correct his accuracy
issues, Burress would be an unquestioned top 12 WR in the years
ahead. A bit of risk, but a solid selection nonetheless.
STV: The one-time Pittsburgh Steeler had 10 touchdowns with the
Giants last season, but didn't quite crack one thousand yards
receiving. Due to this, some fantasy owners may not realize how
productive a scorer Burress can be. There's good reason to expect
at least 1000 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 70 or more receptions from
Burress this season.
JS: Concerns surrounding Burress' approach to the game may continue
to fuel speculation of him being released before his contract
expires, but head coach Tom Coughlin is more likely to go after
the season if New York suffers another disappointing season. Burress'
current deal keeps him with the Giants until 2010.
9. Marques Colston, NO
LTV: A seventh round pick in last years draft, Colston's quick
ascension to a starting position with the Saints came as a surprise
to many. He completed his rookie season with 70 receptions, 1038
yards, and 8 touchdowns. An ankle injury forced him to miss the
better of three complete games, which kept him from posting even
more impressive numbers his first year in the league. Colston
may or may not become a receiver capable of posting 1300 yards
and 85 receptions on a somewhat consistent basis, but his 6'4",
231-pound frame makes him an excellent red zone target for Drew
Brees. Don't be surprised to see Colston score 8-12 touchdowns
a season as the Saints lead receiver.
STV: Reggie Bush's incredible
abilities as a receiver out of the back field may keep Colston
from ever going well above 80 receptions and 1200 yards in a season,
but his touchdown totals should make up for any lack of yardage
Colston may not provide.
JS: Colston's three-year rookie contract expires in 2008. Expect
the team to structure a new deal either prior to then or as a
restricted free agent with him once the deal expires.
10. Roy
Williams, DET
LTV: If not for concerns about
injuries that have kept Williams off the field in both his pro
and college career, there'd be no reason not to rank him above
a few receivers already mentioned on this list. A starter with
the Lions since they selected him 7th overall in the 2004 draft,
last season was the former Texas Longhorn’s first in which he
played all 16 games. His 82 receptions, 1310 yards, and 7 touchdowns
were an encouraging performance. Calvin Johnson may one day jump
ahead of Williams as Detroit's lead receiver, but in Mike Martz's
offensive system there will be plenty of opportunities for both
players.
STV: If healthy, there's no reason not to expect another 80 receptions,
7-9 touchdowns, and 1100-1300 yards from Williams this season.
JS: Williams' contract that
he signed with the Lions as a rookie keeps him in Detroit until
2009, though there is an option clause that could make him a free
agent after the 2008 season. With the selection Calvin Johnson,
along with the resigning of Mike Furrey, its possible Williams
could find himself exploring free agency once the deal expires.
More…
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