While a certain amount of turnover is expected the further one delves into their rankings, change will and does occur on a yearly basis among the top performers at their respective positions.

This article will focus on players who finished among the Top Ten at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver in 2008, but failed to hold that distinction in 2009. We will then attempt to identify which of these players from ’09 may not repeat their Top Ten performances in the year ahead.

Note: All rankings are based upon FFToday’s default league scoring.

Quarterbacks

Who Didn’t Make The Cut (5/10): J. Cutler, K. Warner, D. McNabb, M. Cassel, D. Garrard

In looking at the quarterbacks who achieved Top Ten status in 2008 but failed to do so in 2009, there are two names which shouldn’t be all that surprising, and which also happened to be mentioned in last season’s “Top Ten Dropouts” article as signal callers who were unlikely to duplicate the feat—Jay Cutler and Matt Cassel.

In both those cases we had quarterbacks moving from one franchise to another in the offseason, and the new teams that acquired them weren’t as highly regarded offensively as the teams that let them go. They were surrounded by lesser talent and rawer coaching staffs, which ultimately led to a decrease in their production.

Another quarterback pegged to fall from the Top Ten last year, and who managed to do so, was Kurt Warner. Injury was the primary concern surrounding Warner’s potential fall from grace, but while he did miss Week 12 of the regular season, he was a healthy start throughout most of the year. That said, had he not missed Week 12, it’s very possible he would’ve once again cracked the Top Ten at his position instead of finishing twelfth among quarterbacks.

The two other signal callers who failed to duplicate their 2008 success were Donovan McNabb and David Garrard. McNabb actually had a strong campaign by the numbers, but the fractured ribs he suffered in the season opener forced him to the sidelines for two games and kept him from ranking among the Top Ten fantasy QBs.

In the case of Garrard, he actually scored slightly more fantasy points in 2008 than he had in 2009, but quarterbacks such as Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger managed to outperform him, which ultimately bumped him out of the Top Ten. As is, Garrard will never be more than a fringe player with an outside chance to crack the Top Ten because of to the offense he plays within and the need for him to rack up hundreds of yards on the ground, with the occasional touchdown or two, in order for him to place among the elite.

The Most Likely Candidates To Fall From The Top Ten This Year:

Suspension isn't the only reason Roethlisberger won't crack the top ten.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: One of the primary reasons Roethlisberger can be pinpointed to drop from the Top Ten quarterbacks this season is obvious—he’s currently facing a 4-6 game suspension handed down by commissioner Roger Goodell for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. That, however, is not the only reason to be cautious when regarding Roethlisberger’s fantasy outlook for 2010.

Roethlisberger first cracked the Top Ten fantasy QBs in 2007 when he threw for just 3,158 yards but connected on 32 touchdown passes. In the year that followed, however, his numbers dropped back down into the range of what he had produced every other year he’s been in the league (3,000-3,200 passing yards and 17-19 TD passes). Last season he attempted a career-high 506 passes, which led to a career-high 4,328 passing yards, while also throwing for 26 touchdowns.

There’s no doubt it was his best season in the league, but fantasy owners should be asking themselves how likely it is he’ll produce similar numbers on a game-to-game basis once he returns from his suspension, given the fact he’s only thrown for more than 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns twice during his six years in the NFL.

There is also the loss of Santonio Holmes to consider here. Holmes was traded to the New York Jets during the offseason due to off-the-field issues, despite achieving career highs in receptions (79) and receiving yards (1248) while catching 5 passes for touchdowns. Attempting to fill his shoes will be second-year wide receiver Mike Wallace, who averaged over 19 yards per reception while scoring 6 times on 39 receptions as a rookie.

It’s also doubtful tight end Heath Miller will come close to matching the career year he had in 2009, when he caught 76 passes for 789 yards and 6 touchdowns, after previous season highs of no more than 48 receptions and 566 yards receiving. All these factors could very well contribute to a drop in Roethlisberger’s game-day production once he returns to action.

Philip Rivers, SD: Rivers has been a tremendous fantasy quarterback over the last two seasons as he’s thrown for a combined 8,258 yards and 62 touchdowns during that span. One of the biggest factors for his uprising during that time, however, was the emergence of Vincent Jackson at wide receiver.

Jackson caught 59 passes for 1,098 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2008 (averaging an eye-catching 18.6 yards per catch) before surpassing those totals in 2009 with 68 receptions for 1,167 yards (an impressive 17.2 yards per catch) and 9 touchdowns. As Rivers and the Chargers prepare for the 2010 campaign, however, they face the prospect of doing so without Jackson for the first 10 games of the season.

Jackson, who has already been suspended by Roger Goodell for the first three games of 2010, is threatening to sit out the first 10 games of the season if he and the Chargers don’t come to agreement on a long-term deal. To further complicate matters, Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeill is also threatening to sit out through Week 10 if he and the Chargers don’t come to terms on a new contract. San Diego general manager A.J. Smith is already on record stating he believes both players will follow through on their threats to sit out the first 10 weeks of the season.

Losing your top receiving threat, along with the man who protects your blindside at a Pro Bowl–caliber level, doesn’t bode well for any quarterback in the NFL, Philip Rivers included.

As if those distractions weren’t reason enough to be concerned about Rivers prospects in 2010, the addition of running back Ryan Mathews in the first round of this year’s draft could indicate the Chargers would like to accomplish more on the ground this year, after watching LaDainian Tomlinson sludge along at an average of 3.6 yards per carry over the last two seasons. Without Jackson and McNeill, they may even be forced at times into featuring the ground game more often than they had in recent years.

Eli Manning, NYG: Eli Manning had a fantastic year last season as he threw for a career high 4,021 yards passing, with 27 touchdowns, and completed a career best 62.3% of his passes. That said, he’s only thrown for more than 3,336 yards one other time in his career, and he had never before thrown more than 24 touchdowns in a season. He has also struggled with his accuracy throughout his NFL tenure, although he has made strides in that area of his play over the last two years.

While his increase in production last season is reason to believe he is finally coming into his own, his past performances give reason for fantasy owners to question whether or not he can produce at a Top Ten level of play in the year ahead.

Another factor to consider when determining what type of fantasy quarterback Eli will be in 2010 has to do with the Giants rushing attack. Last year Brandon Jacobs endured his worst season as a starter in the NFL, as he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry on 224 attempts (835 rushing yards) while scoring 5 times. In the two years prior he averaged 5.0 yards per carry, and he scored 15 touchdowns in 2008. Jacobs managed to play in all but one game last season, but a knee injury that required surgery during the offseason hampered his level of play throughout much of his 2009 campaign. If he can return to the form he displayed through 2007 and 2008, he will be sure to eat into some of Eli’s yardage and touchdown totals.

Ahmad Bradshaw is another of the Giants running backs that should not be overlooked. While Jacobs struggled last season, Bradshaw shined as he ran for 778 yards, averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and scored 7 touchdowns. He also contributed 207 yards receiving on 21 receptions. It’s also worth noting he accomplished these totals while playing with foot and ankle injuries in both of his feet, which, like Jacobs’ knee, also required surgery during the offseason.

If Jacobs can get himself back on track, and Bradshaw can pick up where he left off last season, it’s hard to imagine Manning getting the chance to achieve the same results in 2010 as he did in 2009.

Running Backs

Who Didn’t Make The Cut (7/10): D. Williams, M. Turner, M. Forte, S. Slaton, L. Tomlinson, C. Portis, B. Westbrook

As was the case last season when we looked at running backs that cracked the Top Ten in 2007 but failed to do so a year later, injuries and age were the primary factors that played a role in why five of the seven running backs that ranked among the top of their class a year ago failed to do so in 2009.

DeAngelo Williams, 2008’s top performer at running back, missed three games last season with an injured ankle that had him finishing 14th among his peers when all was said and done. Michael Turner, second only to Williams in 2008, also dealt with an ankle injury that forced him to miss five games in 2009 and hampered him in a few others. He finished the fantasy season ranked 23rd overall at running back.

In the cases of Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook, prolonged concussion symptoms derailed their seasons before they were more than half way through them. LaDainian Tomlinson, meanwhile, fell victim to both advanced age and the injury bug as he missed two games early in the year with a sprained ankle, while averaging 3.3 yards per carry on 223 rushing attempts throughout his 2009 campaign. He also hauled in a career-low 20 receptions. It was the first time he ever had less than 51 in a season.

That leaves us with Matt Forte and Steve Slaton as the two other backs who failed to crack the Top Ten in 2009 after doing so in 2008.

In the case of Slaton, one could point to injury as part of the reason he failed to deliver. He missed the final five games last year after suffering a serious neck injury. But even before the injury he was a major disappointment, as he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry on 131 attempts (437 rushing yards) up to that point.

He also had major issues holding onto the football, and it began to seem as if he were fumbling it away every other time he touched it (although it has been mentioned the undetected neck injury early in the year could’ve contributed to his fumbling woes, as it caused numbness at times throughout his arms and fingers).

That brings us to Matt Forte as the only running back that played in all 16 games last season yet failed to duplicate his 2008 rookie achievement as a Top Ten fantasy back. With that said, Forte did deal with a banged-up knee and hamstring in 2009, which both he and running backs coach Tim Spencer say contributed to his disappointing year.

The Most Likely Candidates To Fall From The Top Ten This Year:

A push from Donald Brown could push Addai out of the top-ten.

Joseph Addai, IND: Joseph Addai was a much more relevant fantasy back last year than expected, as he combined for 13 touchdowns and 1,164 yards. He also recorded a career-high 51 receptions last season, which made him particularly useful in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. With that said, Addai still averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last season after rushing for a subpar 3.5 yards per attempt in 2008. He also managed to avoid any serious push for playing time from first round pick Donald Brown, as chest and shoulder injures limited the rookie to just 11 games and 90 touches throughout the season.

With Brown now healthy, the 27th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft is expected to have a much bigger impact within the Colts offense during his sophomore campaign. Considering Addai’s combined average of 3.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons, there is plenty of room for improvement from the Colts rushing attack. If Brown capitalizes on the opportunities given to him as he’s worked into the backfield, he could overtake Addai as the primary ball carrier in Indianapolis.

If this were to happen, Addai would be relegated to a secondary role on first and second downs while handling most of the third down duties. Even should Addai fend off Brown as the Colts primary rusher, it’s highly likely the second-year back will eat into a significant chunk of the veteran’s yardage, reception, and touchdown totals in the year ahead.

Thomas Jones, KC: Jones defied the odds last season with the New York Jets, managing to have a career year at the age of thirty-one. His 332 carries, 1,402 rushing yards, and 14 touchdowns were all career highs; nonetheless, New York decided to cut ties with him during the offseason in favor of highly touted second-year back Shonn Greene. Once Jones landed on the free agent market, the Kansas City Chiefs quickly signed him to a two-year deal as a backfield compliment to Jamaal Charles, the incumbent starter who had a breakout campaign in 2009.

Even though Jones should fill his role admirably within the Chiefs offense, there is no chance he will crack the Top Ten fantasy backs in 2010 as long as he is entrenched in a running back-by-committee approach with Charles. Even if Jones inherited the starting job outright (for some unseen reason), it’s still doubtful he could reel in another Top Ten performance.

The Chiefs offense, particularly their offensive line, isn’t as accomplished as the Jets. Nor do they have as stout a defense, which would enable them to control the clock with the ground game throughout an entire four quarters of football. And while last season Jones managed to avoid the downfall that accompanies most running backs in the NFL once they surpass the age of thirty, it’s highly unlikely he could do so again at thirty-two, coming off the heaviest workload he’s ever endured in his career.

Ricky Williams, MIA: From one aging back to another… Ricky Williams may be coming off one of his better seasons in the league, but it’s hard to foresee him approaching or surpassing his production of a year ago.

At thirty-three years old, the former first-round pick is nearing the end of his career. Even though he hasn’t endured much of a pounding in recent seasons, the aging process is still sure to take its toll on him. And it’s not as if the near 400-carry outings he had in 2002 and 2003 don’t factor into his career workload simply because he’s handled fewer touches as of late.

Williams’ age and workload aside, Ronnie Brown will be returning to action with the Dolphins after a broken foot limited him to just nine games in 2009. While some may argue the injury-prone Brown is bound to get injured again, it can’t be relied upon as a foregone conclusion. He’s currently participating fully in Miami’s training camp and should be completely healthy for the start of the season.

The bottom line here is that as long as Ronnie Brown is healthy, it’s very doubtful Ricky Williams could achieve Top Ten status as part of a running back-by-committee approach. It’s also worth mentioning that Brown is looking to cash in as a free agent at the end of the season, as he is currently playing on a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins. The extra motivation to perform well certainly isn’t going to hurt Brown’s numbers any.

One other factor to consider is Ricky Williams’ drop in production over the final five games of the 2009 campaign. During that span he ran for just 329 yards with 2 touchdowns while averaging 3.8 yards per carry. It could be a sign that he is bound to break down over the course of a full season at this stage in his career if he were relied upon as Miami’s primary running back.

Wide Receivers

Who Didn’t Make The Cut (6/10): C. Johnson, G. Jennings, S. Smith, A. Boldin, A. Bryant, T. Owens

While a good number of the quarterbacks and running backs that failed to achieve Top Ten status in both 2008 and 2009 can be attributed to a change of team, injury, or the eventual decline in talent that comes with the aging process, half of the wide receivers that failed to deliver a repeat performance from ’08 to ’09 were influenced by other factors.

Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin each missed just one game last season, yet failed to rank among the Top Ten wide receivers. This plays in contrast to their status as Top Ten wideouts in 2008 even though they were both limited to playing in 14 games or less that year. In Greg Jennings’ case, he managed to play in all 16 games of the 2009 campaign, but was unable to match his production from the previous season.

Steve Smith’s decline can at least be attributed to inconsistent play from the Panthers quarterbacks in 2009, but Jennings’ and Boldin’s fall from the Top Ten had more to do with their inability to find the end zone as often as they had in years past.

As for Calvin Johnson and Antonio Bryant, injuries played a role in their tumble down the charts (although Johnson’s slip in production could also be attributed to the ups and downs that come in having a rookie under center for most of the season).

Meanwhile, Terrell Owens’ dismal 2009 season was the combined result of playing for a bad offense and the natural decline in abilities that tends to impact 35-year old wide receivers.

The Most Likely Candidates To Fall From The Top Ten This Year:

Brandon Marshall, MIA: Brandon Marshall has caught more than 100 passes in each of the last three seasons and is coming off a career-high 10 touchdown receptions with the Broncos in 2009. Unfortunately, because of a trade that sent him to the Dolphins during the offseason, his prospects for the coming year have become somewhat cloudy.

Miami’s offense relies on a run-first approach that is likely to limit the number of looks Marshall has grown accustomed to seeing through his time with the Broncos.

That being the case, it becomes highly unlikely Marshall will tally 100 receptions for a fourth consecutive season. He’s more likely than not to finish in the range of 75-85 receptions in 2010. Applying that range at a rate of 12.1 yards per catch—Marshall’s average over the last three years—the fifth-year veteran would post anywhere from 907 to 1,028 yards receiving during his first season as a Dolphin.

Another scenario that is likely to play out involves a drop in Marshall’s touchdown total from a year ago. Given Miami’s run-heavy philosophy, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Marshall to record any more than 6-8 touchdowns this coming season.

Overall, the former Bronco should have himself a productive season, just not one that is likely to crack the Top Ten among fantasy receivers.

You mush stay healthy to be a top-ten fantasy receiver.

Sidney Rice, MIN: Sidney Rice had a breakout performance last season, quickly becoming newly acquired quarterback Brett Favre’s favorite target in the passing game and at times dominating opposing defenders. He seemed poised to build upon his accomplishments of 2009 in 2010, but there are now legitimate concerns about his health as the Vikings prepare for the upcoming NFL season.

A hip injury Rice suffered during Minnesota’s 2009 playoff run is continuing to hamper him and is the current reason the Vikings have placed him on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. The exact nature of the injury to his hip is unclear, although Rice has said that it’s more than just a hip flexor injury. During the offseason, Rice has also seen a few specialists that recommended surgery for his injured hip, but he decided against it. The fourth-year wideout claims he will be ready by the start of the regular season, but until he gets himself back on the practice field, fantasy owners should be cautious of drafting him with the expectation that he’ll perform as a true number one option at receiver.

Another concern for potential Rice owners has to do with Brett Favre’s continued indecisiveness about whether or not he is going to retire. Some recent reports have said the future Hall of Famer made the decision to retire a few days ago, only to be quickly denied by Favre and his agent. The latest on the situation is that Favre will suit up in 2010 as long as he feels capable of playing on an ankle that was surgically repaired during the offseason.

Should he retire, however, the prospects of Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels taking over under center in Minnesota doesn’t bode well for Sidney Rice.

Vincent Jackson, SD: The reasons to write off Vincent Jackson as a Top Ten fantasy receiver in 2010 are fairly obvious. To begin with, he is already facing a three game suspension handed down by the league because of his violations against the NFL’s substance abuse policy. As if that weren’t worrisome enough, the sixth-year wideout is threatening to sit out the first 10 weeks of the season if the Chargers don’t sign him to a long-term deal.

Another concern is Pro Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeill’s threat to sit out the first 10 weeks of the season as well if he isn’t given a new contract. While this won’t affect Jackson if he were to sit out the first 10 games anyhow, it will hamper his production should he decide to return once his three-game suspension is complete.

While some fantasy owners may take a chance on drafting Jackson in the hopes he’ll return to action in Week 4, they should take into consideration San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith’s comments that he believes both Jackson and McNeil will follow through on their threats to sit out the majority of the season.

If the team’s own general manager is convinced these players will follow through on their threats, perhaps fantasy owners should believe them as well.