Jonathan
Stewart, RB CAR – It’s enticing. I’m sure it is. After
years of teaming with DeAngelo
Williams, Stewart now has the backfield essentially all to
himself. We look at that and conclude that Stewart is now in a
position to deliver stellar numbers, so we draft him perhaps higher
than we should. I think the ship has sailed on Stewart’s ability
to lead a fantasy team toward any plausible success. Part of his
allure is the 20 rushing TDs he scored during his first two seasons.
We remember that production and automatically assume we’re getting
“that” Jonathan Stewart.
Since those 20 TDs back in 2008 and 2009, Stewart has scored
a grand total of 14 TDs in the five subsequent seasons—INCLUDING
receiving TDs. And when you consider Cam Newton has three more
rushing TDs in three fewer seasons, you begin to realize that
Stewart’s value is based solely on his assumed bell cow
role in Carolina’s offense. Well, I’m not buying the
hype, and neither should you. I’ll let somebody else drink
the Stewart Kool-Aid this season.
Struggle or Shine? Is C.J. Anderson's 1.08
average draft position too lofty for the third-year RB?
C.J.
Anderson, RB DEN – Anderson a first round pick going
into 2015? That’s laughable. Are we so desperate for productive
running backs in fantasy football that we elevate a player with
a eight-game track record to such a lofty status? Anderson only
got his opportunity because both Ronnie
Hillman and Montee
Ball were sidelined due to injury. Plus, Peyton
Manning’s quad injury forced the Broncos to lean more on their
running game.
So I guess those who are buying into the Anderson hype want the
rest of us to believe Anderson will continue his productive flurry
despite Hillman and Ball’s return, as well as Manning’s
improved health. There is absolutely no way I’d invest a
top-12 pick on Anderson. No way. He had a fantastic six-game run
to close out 2014 (648 yards, 8 TDs) no doubt. But we’re
supposed to expect him to pick up where he left off? Not a chance.
I’d suggest targeting Montee Ball and his 11.01 ADP for
better value.
Andre
Ellington, RB ARZ – The Cardinals have done everything
to give Ellington the chance to lead their running game. But either
through injury, poor play or both, he hasn’t quite lived up to
expectations. As a result, the team invested a third round pick
in this year’s draft on bruising runner David
Johnson out of Northern Iowa. Ellington will still get an
opportunity to produce, and it will be that glimmer of hope that
may lead many fantasy owners to give the third year back another
crack at it.
For all the hype thrown Ellington’s way, especially heading
into last season, he has only eclipsed 100 yards rushing once
in his career. His 85 career receptions show he has some versatility,
but there’s simply not enough “there there”
when it comes to Ellington. There’s no need in trying to
get cute during your draft and deciding to draft Ellington. I’d
suggest you wait three or four rounds and pick up David Johnson
instead.
Brandon
Marshall, WR NYJ – Why is Brandon Marshall, as talented
as he is, now on his fourth NFL team? He’s had more than 100 catches
in five of his nine seasons, and eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards
in seven of those nine. So again I ask, why are the Jets his fourth
team? Whatever that answer may be, it won’t help his cause heading
into 2015. The quarterback situation in New York leaves a lot
to be desired, and now with Geno
Smith out until at least the beginning of October, the prospects
of Marshall doing anything of note are now stunted.
So in essence, Marshall’s decline in production this year
will have much more to do with what’s around him than his
skill set alone. He’s going late in the fifth round in 12-team
drafts, which makes him a mid-level WR2. I’d have some serious
trepidation with him as my WR2. Try looking elsewhere.
Julius
Thomas, TE JAC – This prediction isn’t exactly going
out on a limb; it’s common knowledge that Thomas’ production will
most assuredly take a nosedive in Jacksonville after a pair of
12-TD seasons in Denver. The Jags have a slew of young players
at receiver, meaning the 27-year-old will become the de facto
leader of the receiving corps.
QB Blake Bortles enters his second season after showing some
promise last year. Bortles, however, will have to mature as a
player mighty fast if Thomas is to live up to his 7.08 ADP. I
don’t see it happening and would therefore steer clear from
Thomas. I’d personally rather have a Zach Ertz (8.02 ADP)
or Owen Daniels (8.04 ADP). Let somebody else in your league live
in the past with Thomas.
Shine
Jeremy
Hill, RB CIN – Hill began last season as Giovani
Bernard’s backup, but Cincy’s running game soon became Hill’s
to lose. Sure, Gio was there to serve as a change-of-pace back
and a receiving option, but Hill was THE guy. That’s not going
to change much this year. With a year under his belt, Hill could
very well pick up where he left off.
Watching Hill last year brought back memories of Cincinnati running
back Rudi Johnson circa 2004-2006. Johnson was a steady, between-the-tackles
runner who gave fantasy owners solid production. Hill is essentially
a younger version of Johnson. The Bengals scored the second-most
running TDs last year with 19. With Hill getting the starting
nod from the outset, it’s not out of the question that he
gets comfortably in the double-digits in touchdowns. He’s
slightly less valuable in PPR leagues, but he’s still a
top fantasy back nonetheless. Hill is someone you should target
as an RB1 at the top of the 2nd round, if you go QB or WR in the
1st.
Jordan
Matthews, WR PHI – I’m not the biggest Chip Kelly fan,
I’ll say that at the outset. But we all know fantasy football
is not a congeniality contest. Kelly is a heck of an offensive
coach, and it is his ingenuity that gives his players an enormous
boost in value. The Eagles offense is yearning for a productive
option, especially in light of Jeremy
Maclin, LeSean
McCoy and DeSean
Jackson being shipped out over the last season or so.
Matthews is the best of the bunch in terms of Philly receivers,
and most are really, really young—31-year-old Miles Austin
notwithstanding. Matthews will be counted on to lead the way in
the passing game as rookie Nelson Agholor learns the ropes in
the NFL. Part of what makes Matthews an intriguing player heading
into 2015 is the quick-pace philosophy of Kelly, which translates
into more plays within a shorter period of time. Matthews finished
last season with 67 receptions and 8 TDs; you should expect him
to get closer to 80-85 catches while reaching double digits in
scores. He’s a solid WR2 heading into this season.
Latavius
Murray, RB OAK – Murray is no doubt the lead dog of
this Raiders ground game. Roy
Helu Jr. is a solid complement, and Michael Dyer is in the
mix as well. Trent
Richardson may have difficulty making the final roster with
his archaic running style, leaving the ground game to Murray.
He only had 82 rushing attempts last season, playing behind fragile
Darren
McFadden. With DMC now in Dallas, the running game is Murray’s.
What boosts his stock more than anything is the continued improvement
of the players around him. QB Derek
Carr enters year two after a solid rookie performance and
WR Amari
Cooper makes his NFL debut in 2015, giving the offense in
Oakland a level of optimism it hasn’t seen in a decade. Murray
is going in the early 4th round in standard leagues, making him
a mid-level RB2 with upside.
Joseph
Randle, RB DAL – How’s this for an interesting stat:
in 2014, DeMarco
Murray had three runs of 40-plus yards on 392 carries; on
51 carries, Joseph Randle had two runs of 40-plus yards. That
doesn’t mean Randle is better suited to lead the running game
in Dallas, but it does speak to a level of explosiveness Randle
has and that Murray doesn’t.
Randle is the frontrunner to become the lead dog in Dallas’ backfield,
as oft-injured Darren
McFadden tweaked his hamstring hours into this year’s training
camp. Lance
Dunbar is limited as a change-of-pace back, so he shouldn’t
be a concern to Randle owners. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan
mentioned earlier this summer that the team will not deter too
far from its run-heavy philosophy from 2014, meaning Randle should
get plenty of opportunities—maybe not to the tune of 392 to match
Murray’s attempts from last season, but he should tote the rock
enough to put up RB2-worthy numbers.
Keenan
Allen, WR SD – Allen entered 2014 as a borderline WR1
fantasy receiver after a stellar 2013 season. Although his numbers
dipped in 2014, his opportunities didn’t. Allen actually had more
targets and receptions (121/77) last year than in his rookie campaign
(105/71), but his yards per reception and total TDs plummeted.
Allen enters this year as the unquestioned top receiving option
in San Diego. Tight end Antonio Gates’ four-game suspension
catapults Allen to that status, not to mention the shortage of
quality receiving depth behind him. Names such as Malcom Floyd,
Steve Johnson, Jacoby Jones and others certainly don’t bring
much fear to defensive backfields around the league. I expect
Allen to up his reception total in Gates’ absence, thanks
in large measure to a lot of underneath routes. Consequently,
he will have heightened value more in PPR leagues than in standard
leagues.