The term “breakout” has various meanings in fantasy football.
One meaning could be a player that helps catapult owners to championship
glory (Odell
Beckham Jr. in 2014; Blake
Bortles in 2015), while another definition could simply be
a player that vastly outplays his ADP. This article will focus
on the latter—those players that can be had on the cheap but who
have situations that can yield production by season’s end.
A subpar off-season has DGB flying under
the radar.
Dorial
Green-Beckham, TEN – The Titans have been devoid of
wide receiver production for some time now. Kendall
Wright’s production has fallen off during the past two years
after being a PPR dynamo in 2013 (WR20). The team signed Rishard
Matthews as a way to fortify the position. Green-Beckham,
I believe, is the most talented of the bunch. He has the size
(6-5) and the speed (4.49 - 40) to be a nice complement to TE
Delanie
Walker.
DGB began picking up his production in the second half of the
season after coming out the gate slowly last year. Twenty of his
32 receptions came in the second half of the season, including
a 119-yard game against Jacksonville and a 113-yard game at New
England. Second year QB Marcus Mariota will only develop as fast
as his supporting cast allows him to. Green-Beckham should lead
the charge in supplementing Mariota’s growth, while in the
process becoming a high-end WR3 in fantasy football.
John
Brown, ARI – Combined with Larry
Fitzgerald’s increasing age and Michael
Floyd’s inconsistency, third-year pro John Brown is set up
to build on his solid year from 2015. He finished last season
second behind Fitz in targets, receptions, receiving yards and
receiving TDs. Can we bank on a 33-year-old Fitz to keep up that
kind of pace? He’s defied us before, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Brown is perhaps best used in the slot, as his shiftiness can
present problems to a defense. By no means is Brown a can’t-miss
fantasy prospect. His potential hinges on both Floyd and Fitz
garnering the bulk of attention from opposing defenses, and QB
Carson Palmer maintaining his stellar play. Arizona is poised
to be one of the high potent offenses in the league in 2016, so
it behooves us to grab one of the main cogs that’ll make
this machine go—and I believe John Brown will be that main
cog. An 80-catch season that approaches double digit TDs is not
out of the realm of possibility.
Corey
Coleman, CLE – We all know the Cleveland Browns have
done a lot wrong since their reentry into the league in 1999.
While many may have scratched their head at the team’s strategy
of drafting four receivers in this year’s draft, what they can’t
be perplexed about is the first of those four: Corey Coleman out
of Baylor. He scored 31 TDs in his last two years in college;
that’s the kind of explosiveness the Browns have missed since
Josh
Gordon’s days of ripping up the league in 2013.
A big part of Coleman’s inclusion on this list comes from my
belief in new head coach Hue Jackson. I believe Jackson will do
wonders for QB Robert
Griffin III’s career, while in the process helping Coleman
become the third best play-making receiver in the division (behind
Antonio
Brown and A.J.
Green). Cleveland could be playing from behind a lot this
season, which makes for plenty of garbage time production. Can
Coleman eke out a season with 70 receptions and 6–8 scores? I
think so.
Sterling
Shepard, NYG – I’m not a believer in Victor
Cruz making a miraculous return to fantasy relevance after
a two-year hiatus. I’d be more inclined to give Cruz the benefit
of the doubt if his injuries weren’t to his legs; lower extremity
injuries—especially recurring ones—are big red flags for me. Cruz’s
unfortunate fragility opens the door for rookie Sterling Shepard
to shine. Playing opposite Odell Beckham Jr. will create untold
opportunities for the youngster.
Some look at him as a slot receiver and not an outside-the-numbers
receiver. Call him whatever you’d like—I’d call
him a viable breakout candidate. It should also be noted that
new head coach Ben McAdoo helped produce two of the most explosive
offensive seasons in Giants history during his time as the team’s
offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015. They tied for 6th in pass
attempts last season and tied for 9th in 2014. There’s no
reason to believe anything will change now that McAdoo has ascended
to the corner office. The continued maturation of the offense,
coupled with OBJ’s presence and Cruz’s uncertainty,
Shepard could be a big surprise in 2016.
Donte
Moncrief, IND – Moncrief was on his way to a solid
season during the first half of 2015. He scored a touchdown in
each of the season’s first three games, including a 7-catch, 122-yard,
1 TD gem against the New York Jets in Week 2. Andre
Johnson’s departure couldn’t come soon enough for Moncrief’s
inevitable development. In fact, Johnson’s presence last year
may have stunted the growth of both Moncrief and Phillip
Dorsett.
With a healthy Andrew Luck, and an expectation of more three-wide
receiver sets, Moncrief should expect a similar chemistry with
the signal caller that was evident during the first month of last
season. Indy’s struggles last year during Luck’s absence
have softened expectations heading into 2016. Most don’t
have the lofty hopes of the Colts’ skill position players
the way they did this time last season. Perhaps we can use that
bear market mentality to our advantage and steal players such
as Moncrief.