Matt Forte has reached the ominous age for RBs.

Matt Forte, (30) RB NYJ – We all know that a running backs’ production can fall off a cliff at the end of their career. Matt Forte seems to be on that trajectory. Last year with the Bears, he posted a career low in rushing yards (898). Granted, he missed three games with an injury, but even before sitting out, his production was hit or miss. There was once a time when Forte would supplement his production with receptions, but last year his catches fell to 44—after posting a career high 102 in 2014.

Forte moves on to the Jets in 2016. Questions abound at the quarterback position in New York, even IF Ryan Fitzpatrick returns (he remains unsigned as of this writing). Certainly, Forte is no stranger to shaky QB play, what with his time in Chicago and all. But he was a spry 20-something-year-old at that time, and he was the centerpiece of the offense. Forte’s ADP is in the middle of the third round, which makes him a low RB1/high RB2, depending on your draft strategy. That’s too big a price to pay for a running back at this stage of his career who will share time with valued receiving threat, Bilal Powell.

Justin Forsett, (30) RB BAL – I remember picking up Justin Forsett as a free agent early in the 2014 season. It was one of those pick-ups we as fantasy owners love—a no risk, high reward addition that helps propel us deep in the playoffs. Before Forsett’s magical 2014 season, he was a journeyman running back anxious to find an NFL home. He bounced around to four teams (IND, SEA, HOU, JAX) and was teetering on being out the league for good.

Last season was particularly frustrating to Forsett owners, many of whom thought big things were dawning. They looked at offensive coordinator Marc Trestman coming over from Chicago after having orchestrated an offense in 2014 geared toward utilizing Forte’s versatile skill set and thought Forsett would have a similar impact. Nope. And now he’s one year older with a questionable offensive line and added competition in the backfield (Kenneth Dixon; Javorius Allen). I’ll let someone else think it’s 2014 and draft Forsett.

Steve Smith, (37) WR BAL – Steve Smith announced that 2015 would be his last season, but he reconsidered that decision after blowing out his Achilles in Week 8. He will return in 2016. How much does he have left, both physically and mentally? He’s got a lot of wear and tear on that 37-year-old, 5-9 185 lbs. body. We all admire Smith for maximizing his considerable talent, but expecting him to rebound and pick up where he left off from 2015 is asking too much.

Perhaps there may be a sentimental owner in your league who remembers Smith’s first three games last year (25 receptions/349 yards/2 TDs). In fact, Smith’s entire abbreviated season (7 games) was solid (46/670/3). I’m just not sure how much fantasy owners can rely on a 37-year-old who has already seriously contemplated retiring—not to mention becoming a second fiddle to ascending fantasy stud Kamar Aiken. If fantasy football was measured and won by drafting players with unmatched heart, Smith would still be a top flight WR. But it’s not, and he’s not.

Victor Cruz, (29) WR NYG – Victor Cruz hasn’t played since October 12, 2014 when he shredded his knee at Philadelphia. Torn patellar tendons are no joke. They’ve seemed to replace ACL injuries as perhaps the most feared in the sport. That’s Cruz’s dilemma. Missing a year and a half is a lifetime in professional sports, especially football. It’s going to be a tough task for Cruz.

I’m sure some will look at the low draft pick it will take to get Cruz (12th round in 12 team leagues)—and the fact that he’d be playing alongside Odell Beckham Jr.—as justification for taking a flier on him. Instead of using those reasons to support their decision, perhaps they should use them to select Giants rookie wide receiver Sterling Shepard. Shepard has a similar ADP, but he’s younger and comes with no injury baggage. Cruz’s salsa dancing celebrations were classic; I just hope those interested in seeing them again were able to DVR his touchdowns, because we may not be seeing many more come the 2016 season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, (36) QB FA – Ryan Fitzpatrick hopes his career year of 2015 gets him one last fat NFL contract. Good luck with that. He remains unsigned as of this writing as he continues to hold the Jets’ feet to the fire. To the team’s credit, they seem to be mindful of who they are dealing with: a classic overachieving player who has already reached the height of his production. Any investment in him would have diminishing returns.

His 31 TD passes in 2015 were a career high and matched his total scoring throws from the previous two seasons COMBINED. He finished strong too, tossing 15 TDs in the season’s final six games. But Fitzpatrick has been a stopgap QB his entire career, and paying him as anything other than that would be a mistake. Front office decisions aside, if Fitzpatrick is signed soon, fantasy owners should remain mindful that 2015 was indeed the watershed moment of his career. As such, expectations should be tempered considerably heading into the 2016.