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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Free Agent WRs: Best-Case Scenario
3/3/15

Next week, free agency begins in the NFL. Depending on where some key players move, fantasy football will no doubt feel the effects.

In the weeks leading up to the March 10th start of the new league year, I have been taking a look at some of the most interesting names currently slated to hit free agency at each of the skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). I am pairing each player with a team I think would be a best-case scenario for his fantasy value. I have already taken a look at the Quarterback and Tight End positions. Today, I will examine the Wide Receivers. I present them in alphabetical order, as this is not a ranking article.

The pairings may not all be 100 percent realistic, but not out of the realm of possibility. For example, some of these moves could be made highly difficult by a franchise tag, but a franchise tag doesn’t necessarily make it impossible for a player to move on. You may also notice many of the moves are dependent on each other, because this exercise just wouldn’t be any fun if I could send every player to the same team.

Kenny Britt – Baltimore Ravens

Believe it or not, Kenny Britt has already been in the NFL for six seasons. When I discovered that fact, I was kind of blown away, as he still seems like a guy the fantasy world is waiting to see break out. If there’s ever a place for that to finally happen, it’s with the Baltimore Ravens.

Joe Flacco is considered to throw one of the best deep balls in the NFL. Britt is best used as a deep threat. If the Ravens lose Torrey Smith to free agency, they will need a deep threat replacement. Britt actually came close to matching Smith’s production in terms of receptions and yardage last season on fewer targets (crazy, right?), so now imagine Britt with a huge upgrade at quarterback. Top 24 production is well within reach for Britt as a member of the Ravens.

Randall Cobb

Cobb should learn from James Jones and just stay put.

Randall Cobb – Green Bay Packers

Maybe it’s because it’s the only thing I’m used to, but Randall Cobb and the Green Bay Packers seem like a perfect match for each other, so why break it up? Cobb has been top 8 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons; this despite not even being the top target on his own team. Cobb’s touchdown rate has increased each year he has been in the NFL, which is kind of amazing, since his targets per game have also increased over that time. Of course, one of the main reasons for these Cobb numbers is being able to play with Aaron Rodgers, possibly the best quarterback in the game today. For the sake of his fantasy greatness, Cobb needs to stay in Green Bay.

Michael Crabtree – Carolina Panthers

It seems like a lifetime ago when Michael Crabtree was the No. 15 wide receiver in fantasy football, yet it was just a three seasons ago. A torn Achilles ruined his 2013, and he never seemed back to full strength in 2014. Another year removed from the injury and a new place to call home is a combination that could get Crabtree back into WR2 territory.

The Carolina Panthers look like the ideal spot to do just that. After Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, the receiving options are slim in that offense. If Crabtree arrives in Carolina, Cam Newton could find him to be much more reliable than Benjamin (who only caught 73 of 145 targets in 2014). Here is how I imagine the Panthers offense playing out in fantasy with Crabtree in the mix: Benjamin as the guy to own in standard leagues, Crabtree becomes the more interesting wide receiver in PPR leagues and Olsen maintains his position as a top- five fantasy tight end.

Jeremy Maclin – New England Patriots

Jeremy Maclin's 2014 numbers in Philadelphia look good, but that doesn't mean he can't find greener pastures. If he remains with the Eagles in 2015, Maclin could find himself playing with a rookie quarterback. More importantly, a quarterback not named Nick Foles. Last season Maclin finished ninth in FPts/G at wide receiver, but dropped to 33rd over the last eight games with Mark Sanchez at the helm. Say what you will about Sanchez, but there's no guarantee a rookie would be an upgrade.

Maclin could live with that risk, or he could find himself moving to New England to play with Tom Brady. The one problem with this move would be the question of targets: are there enough to go around in New England for Maclin? I say yes. The Patriots are experts at getting the most out of their talent, and Maclin could be one of the more talented receivers of the Brady-Belichick era. Maclin may not match his hot start in 2014, but joining the Patriots would set him up for sustained success, easily making him a reliable high-end WR2 for all of 2015.

Hakeem Nicks – Indianapolis Colts

After a dreadful 2014, it’s hard to believe Hakeem Nicks’ best- case scenario is to stay in the same place, but that may be the case here. Yes, he finished with just 38 receptions for 405 yards and four scores, good for 72nd in wide receiver scoring, but there is upside to be found in Indianapolis.

The No. 1 factor, of course, is playing with Andrew Luck. With a full year together, Luck will be more comfortable throwing to Nicks. It showed late in 2014: over the last six games (regular season and playoffs), Nicks caught 20 passes for 260 yards and two scores. Spread that out of a 16- game season and that gives him 53 catches for 693 yards and five touchdowns, already a big improvement (would have moved him into the top 50 at the position).

The biggest key in this being the prime move for Nicks is what Reggie Wayne decides to do. Wayne is rumored to be considering retirement, and if he does, there is a spot in the wide receiver rotation for the taking. Nicks may be permanently done with his life as a weekly starter in fantasy leagues, but a return to the Colts could easily put him back in the mix in deeper leagues in 2015.

Eddie Royal – Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC West tour continues! So far in his NFL career, Royal has spent four years with Denver and three years with San Diego, so why not keep the carousel moving? The Kansas City Chiefs just went an entire season with no wide receiver touchdowns, so clearly they are desperate for help at the position. Royal has scored 15 total touchdowns over the last two seasons on just 158 total targets. A match made in heaven.

If Royal wants a spot where he can become the most targeted player on his new team, Kansas City could be his spot. He would be in competition with Dwayne Bowe and Travis Kelce, but that’s a competition Royal could theoretically win (especially if Kansas City is tough on Kelce’s usage again in 2015, but that’s a whole different conversation).

Royal has finished as a top- 34 wide receiver in each of the last two seasons, and a move to a spot with more targets potentially available is key to him maintaining that WR3 status in fantasy.

Cecil Shorts – Cleveland Browns

A homecoming could be the ticket to thrusting Cecil Shorts back into the fantasy football limelight. Just the excitement of returning to his hometown (Shorts was born just outside of Cleveland and went to high school in Cleveland) alone could rejuvenate him, but that’s not the only reason a move to Cleveland would be ideal.

Just a couple years removed from being top 20 in FPts/G in PPR (exactly 20th in 2012), Shorts has become the forgotten man in Jacksonville with all the young talent it has brought in the wide receiver position. In Cleveland, Shorts would have a chance to be the top target in the offense. Despite Josh McCown’s shortcomings, he was still able to get Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson each over 1,000 receiving yards in 2014. There’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t be able to do the same for Shorts.

Torrey Smith – Philadelphia Eagles

Torrey Smith will be an interesting name to watch in free agency. He has been a constant big- play threat in Baltimore, but only once in his career has he had a season with a decent number of targets. I, for one, would be interested to see how Smith does in an offense where we can expect consistently high numbers of targets. If Jeremy Maclin is out the door in Philly, this could be the perfect spot for Smith.

Entering the 2013 season, Chip Kelly’s first in Philadelphia, DeSean Jackson was giving us similar types of seasons that Smith has been having in Baltimore: disappointing targets leading to inconsistent fantasy production. Then Kelly arrived and Jackson had his most consistent season since 2009 (according to the FFToday Consistency Calculator). Additionally, in that 2013 season, Jackson had 82 receptions – he’s never had more than 63 in any other season.

Would placing Smith in the Eagles offense mean we can automatically pencil him into a season like Jackson had in 2013? Of course not, but it is on the table. Just putting 82 receptions for 1,332 yards in Smith’s range of outcomes already makes him more appealing than his current situation in Baltimore.

Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos

Editors Note: Article was submitted before the Broncos placed the franchise tag on Thomas.

Sometimes you just shouldn’t over think a situation. Demaryius Thomas led the NFL in targets in 2014, finished second in receptions and receiving yards, and fourth in fantasy points. He has finished in the top five at wide receiver every year he has played with Peyton Manning. As it stands now, Manning is coming back to the Broncos for the 2015 season. There is no greater upside for Thomas than to stay right where he is with the Denver Broncos.