Next week, free agency begins in the NFL. Depending on where some
key players move, fantasy football will no doubt feel the effects.
In the weeks leading up to the March 10th start of the new league
year, I have been taking a look at some of the most interesting
names currently slated to hit free agency at each of the skill
positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight
end). I am pairing each player with a team I think would be a
best-case scenario for his fantasy value. I have already taken
a look at the Quarterback
and Tight End positions.
Today, I will examine the Wide Receivers. I present them in alphabetical
order, as this is not a ranking article.
The pairings may not all be 100 percent realistic, but not out
of the realm of possibility. For example, some of these moves
could be made highly difficult by a franchise tag, but a franchise
tag doesn’t necessarily make it impossible for a player
to move on. You may also notice many of the moves are dependent
on each other, because this exercise just wouldn’t be any
fun if I could send every player to the same team.
Believe it or not, Kenny Britt has already been in the NFL for
six seasons. When I discovered that fact, I was kind of blown
away, as he still seems like a guy the fantasy world is waiting
to see break out. If there’s ever a place for that to finally
happen, it’s with the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Flacco is considered to throw one of the best deep balls
in the NFL. Britt is best used as a deep threat. If the Ravens
lose Torrey Smith to free agency, they will need a deep threat
replacement. Britt actually came close to matching Smith’s production
in terms of receptions and yardage last season on fewer targets
(crazy, right?), so now imagine Britt with a huge upgrade at quarterback.
Top 24 production is well within reach for Britt as a member of
the Ravens.
Cobb should learn from James Jones and
just stay put.
Maybe it’s because it’s the only thing I’m
used to, but Randall Cobb and the Green Bay Packers seem like
a perfect match for each other, so why break it up? Cobb has been
top 8 in fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons;
this despite not even being the top target on his own team. Cobb’s
touchdown rate has increased each year he has been in the NFL,
which is kind of amazing, since his targets per game have also
increased over that time. Of course, one of the main reasons for
these Cobb numbers is being able to play with Aaron Rodgers, possibly
the best quarterback in the game today. For the sake of his fantasy
greatness, Cobb needs to stay in Green Bay.
It seems like a lifetime ago when Michael Crabtree was the No.
15 wide receiver in fantasy football, yet it was just a three
seasons ago. A torn Achilles ruined his 2013, and he never seemed
back to full strength in 2014. Another year removed from the injury
and a new place to call home is a combination that could get Crabtree
back into WR2 territory.
The Carolina Panthers look like the ideal spot to do just that.
After Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, the receiving options are
slim in that offense. If Crabtree arrives in Carolina, Cam Newton
could find him to be much more reliable than Benjamin (who only
caught 73 of 145 targets in 2014). Here is how I imagine the Panthers
offense playing out in fantasy with Crabtree in the mix: Benjamin
as the guy to own in standard leagues, Crabtree becomes the more
interesting wide receiver in PPR leagues and Olsen maintains his
position as a top- five fantasy tight end.
Jeremy Maclin's 2014 numbers in Philadelphia look good, but that
doesn't mean he can't find greener pastures. If he remains with
the Eagles in 2015, Maclin could find himself playing with a rookie
quarterback. More importantly, a quarterback not named Nick Foles.
Last season Maclin finished ninth in FPts/G at wide receiver,
but dropped to 33rd over the last eight games with Mark Sanchez
at the helm. Say what you will about Sanchez, but there's no guarantee
a rookie would be an upgrade.
Maclin could live with that risk, or he could find himself moving
to New England to play with Tom Brady. The one problem with this
move would be the question of targets: are there enough to go
around in New England for Maclin? I say yes. The Patriots are
experts at getting the most out of their talent, and Maclin could
be one of the more talented receivers of the Brady-Belichick era.
Maclin may not match his hot start in 2014, but joining the Patriots
would set him up for sustained success, easily making him a reliable
high-end WR2 for all of 2015.
After a dreadful 2014, it’s hard to believe Hakeem Nicks’
best- case scenario is to stay in the same place, but that may
be the case here. Yes, he finished with just 38 receptions for
405 yards and four scores, good for 72nd in wide receiver scoring,
but there is upside to be found in Indianapolis.
The No. 1 factor, of course, is playing with Andrew Luck. With
a full year together, Luck will be more comfortable throwing to
Nicks. It showed late in 2014: over the last six games (regular
season and playoffs), Nicks caught 20 passes for 260 yards and
two scores. Spread that out of a 16- game season and that gives
him 53 catches for 693 yards and five touchdowns, already a big
improvement (would have moved him into the top 50 at the position).
The biggest key in this being the prime move for Nicks is what
Reggie Wayne decides to do. Wayne is rumored to be considering
retirement, and if he does, there is a spot in the wide receiver
rotation for the taking. Nicks may be permanently done with his
life as a weekly starter in fantasy leagues, but a return to the
Colts could easily put him back in the mix in deeper leagues in
2015.
The AFC West tour continues! So far in his NFL career, Royal
has spent four years with Denver and three years with San Diego,
so why not keep the carousel moving? The Kansas City Chiefs just
went an entire season with no wide receiver touchdowns, so clearly
they are desperate for help at the position. Royal has scored
15 total touchdowns over the last two seasons on just 158 total
targets. A match made in heaven.
If Royal wants a spot where he can become the most targeted player
on his new team, Kansas City could be his spot. He would be in
competition with Dwayne Bowe and Travis Kelce, but that’s a competition
Royal could theoretically win (especially if Kansas City is tough
on Kelce’s usage again in 2015, but that’s a whole different conversation).
Royal has finished as a top- 34 wide receiver in each of the
last two seasons, and a move to a spot with more targets potentially
available is key to him maintaining that WR3 status in fantasy.
A homecoming could be the ticket to thrusting Cecil Shorts back
into the fantasy football limelight. Just the excitement of returning
to his hometown (Shorts was born just outside of Cleveland and
went to high school in Cleveland) alone could rejuvenate him,
but that’s not the only reason a move to Cleveland would
be ideal.
Just a couple years removed from being top 20 in FPts/G in PPR
(exactly 20th in 2012), Shorts has become the forgotten man in
Jacksonville with all the young talent it has brought in the wide
receiver position. In Cleveland, Shorts would have a chance to
be the top target in the offense. Despite Josh McCown’s shortcomings,
he was still able to get Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson each over
1,000 receiving yards in 2014. There’s no reason to believe he
wouldn’t be able to do the same for Shorts.
Torrey Smith will be an interesting name to watch in free agency.
He has been a constant big- play threat in Baltimore, but only
once in his career has he had a season with a decent number of
targets. I, for one, would be interested to see how Smith does
in an offense where we can expect consistently high numbers of
targets. If Jeremy Maclin is out the door in Philly, this could
be the perfect spot for Smith.
Entering the 2013 season, Chip Kelly’s first in Philadelphia,
DeSean Jackson was giving us similar types of seasons that Smith
has been having in Baltimore: disappointing targets leading to
inconsistent fantasy production. Then Kelly arrived and Jackson
had his most consistent season since 2009 (according to the FFToday
Consistency Calculator). Additionally, in that 2013 season,
Jackson had 82 receptions – he’s never had more than 63 in any
other season.
Would placing Smith in the Eagles offense mean we can automatically
pencil him into a season like Jackson had in 2013? Of course not,
but it is on the table. Just putting 82 receptions for 1,332 yards
in Smith’s range of outcomes already makes him more appealing
than his current situation in Baltimore.
Editors Note:
Article was submitted before the Broncos placed the franchise
tag on Thomas.
Sometimes you just shouldn’t over think a situation. Demaryius
Thomas led the NFL in targets in 2014, finished second in receptions
and receiving yards, and fourth in fantasy points. He has finished
in the top five at wide receiver every year he has played with
Peyton Manning. As it stands now, Manning is coming back to the
Broncos for the 2015 season. There is no greater upside for Thomas
than to stay right where he is with the Denver Broncos.