In part one
of the Playoff Schedule Analysis, I focused on players that could
carry you to a title come playoff time with their relatively easy
schedules in Weeks 14-16.
In part two, it’s all about players to avoid. For my money,
spotting which players have a potentially difficult playoff schedule
might be more important than knowing which players may have it
easy. The last thing I’d want is to get stuck with a subpar
performance at the most important time of the year.
As a reminder, I wouldn’t necessarily move a player way
up or way down my draft board solely based on their playoff schedule
difficulty, but it does make a nice tiebreaker.
QUARTERBACK
Tony Romo's schedule looks sketchy in Week
15 & 16.
Tony
Romo, DAL (at Green Bay, vs. NY Jets, at Buffalo)
This won’t be the first time you read about a member of
the Cowboys here, as things are looking ugly in December for Dallas.
The playoffs will be difficult for Tony Romo, a popular pick among
fantasy owners who prefer waiting on their quarterback in drafts,
particularly in championship week. The Bills were one of only
two teams in the entire league (Bengals were the other) that had
more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed in 2014, and
they allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL (16). Anyone
depending on Romo to win a title game in 2015 will likely be disappointed
in the results.
A visit to the FF
Points Allowed vs. QB page on FFToday tells the story for
Colin Kaepernick. All three 49ers opponents during playoff weeks
were in the top eight in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks last season. In championship week, Kaepernick
gets the Detroit Lions, who only allowed 108 rushing yards to
quarterbacks in 2014, second fewest in the NFL. That total includes
a matchup with Cam Newton, who only ran for 19 yards against the
Lions defense. Not being able to depend on his legs to make up
the difference for lost passing stats makes the thought of using
Kaepernick late in the year even worse.
Josh
McCown, CLE (vs. San Francisco, at Seattle, at
Kansas City)
As if you needed any more reason to avoid the quarterback situation
in Cleveland, here is some more reason: the Brown’s fantasy playoff
schedule. The 49ers defense may be a little less stout than 2014,
but Weeks 15 and 16 bring Josh McCown (or Johnny Manziel?) road
games against the two teams that allowed the fewest fantasy points
to the quarterback position last season. Ignore Josh McCown in
the fantasy playoffs and all season for that matter.
The Eagles running attack could make for some great numbers in
2015. It’s a rarity to have a team provide us with three
running backs with the potential for solid fantasy usage at the
same time. The downside comes when a trio runs into stout defenses.
According to the FF
points Allowed vs. RB page, the three playoff opponents for
Philadelphia were in the top-7 in terms of fewest points allowed
to fantasy running backs. DeMarco Murray will likely be in for
a disappointing close to the season, while Ryan Mathews and Darren
Sproles should be ignored all together in December.
One of the more popular debates of the offseason has been “who
will take the reins in Dallas?” The Cowboys had one of the
best offensive lines in the league in 2014, and there’s
no reason to believe it won’t be just as strong in 2015.
While the winner of this battle will matter over the long haul,
it won’t matter as much as we get late in the season. As
difficult as this schedule looks for Romo, it looks even more
difficult for the running backs. In 2014, the Bills and Jets were
two of only seven teams that held opposing team running backs
to under 20 FPts/G in PPR, two of nine to hold them under 16 FPts/G
in standard, and two of eight to hold the opposition below 1,400
rushing yards over the course of the season. Good luck trying
to win your fantasy championship with one of these running backs
in your lineup.
Frank
Gore, IND (at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, at Miami)
Season-long totals don’t always tell the whole story when it
comes to judging fantasy opponents. It does for the Jaguars, however,
so Gore owners should get a reprieve in Week 14. Houston and Miami
were both middle of the road when it came to stopping running
backs in fantasy last season, but those numbers may be better
if you look past their extreme off days. In total, there were
only five times in 2014 that a running back ran for more than
61 yards against the Houston defense, it just so happens that
those backs went for 87 yards or more. Only six times did Miami
give up more than 62 yards to a single running back in a game,
but the season long numbers look worse because four of those went
for over 100. You can go forward hoping that 32-year old Gore
has enough left in the tank to beat those odds in Weeks 15 and
16, or you can consider going in another direction in your draft
when deciding between Gore and another running back similar to
his current mid-third round ADP.
I promise my intention with this article wasn’t to pick
on the Cowboys. Though as a Bills fan, I do take pleasure knowing
that Buffalo is set up to ruin Dallas in their fantasy Super Bowls
after those early-nineties disasters. Only three wide receivers
scored more than 13.1 points against the Bills defense in 2014.
Dez Bryant can beat those odds, but he also wouldn’t be
the first stud wide receiver to disappoint in the fantasy playoffs
thanks to the Bills-D. In Weeks 14 and 15 against Buffalo last
season, Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson combined for 6.6 standard
FPts.
None of the Rams receivers are being drafted with any expectation
of immediate fantasy success, but they are all being drafted in
the hope that at least one will hit big as a late-round lottery
ticket. If any of these guys make a surprise move to the realm
of fantasy starter, it likely won’t be that way come fantasy
playoff time. The Buccaneers are a beatable group in Week 15,
but they are sandwiched by the Lions (8th fewest fantasy points
allowed to wide receivers in 2014) and the Seahawks (the fewest).
Here’s how badly you want to avoid Seattle with your receivers:
The Seahawks allowed 13.6 standard FPts/G to opposing wideouts,
whereas the second toughest defense – Cincinnati –
allowed 18.6 FPts/G. To put it another way: the difference between
#1 and #2 in fewest FPts/G allowed (5 points), is greater than
the difference between #2 and #20 (4.4 points). No Rams receivers
should be in any lineups when titles are on the line.
You already know you want to avoid the Seahawks in Week 15, and
it doesn’t get much better a week later in your title games.
The Chiefs allowed the 9th fewest FPts/G to wide receivers in
2014, and they made it near impossible for receivers to put up
the big performance you’re looking for: only one receiver
scored more than 13.7 standard FPts in a game against Kansas City
in 2014.
TIGHT END
Jimmy
Graham, SEA (at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, vs. St.
Louis)
Fantasy expectations for Jimmy Graham have already started diminishing
since his move from the pass happy Saints to the run heavy Seahawks.
They should drop even more for those worried about optimizing
their squad for the fantasy playoffs. It gets progressively harder
each week for Graham as the Ravens allowed the 14th fewest FPts/G
to tight ends; the Browns allowed the 8th fewest; the Rams gave
up the third fewest. If you draft Graham with an early pick you’re
absolutely using him in the fantasy playoffs, but you probably
won’t be a huge fan of the results.
Jordan Reed is likely the Washington starter, but he’s
exactly the kind of player you can’t count on to make it
to December, so Niles Paul is included as well. Whichever guy
is starting has the opportunity to light up the fantasy scoreboard
in round one of the fantasy playoffs, but that will be the end
of their usefulness. The Bills allowed the fewest FPts/G to tight
ends in 2014 and the Eagles allowed the fourth fewest. If you
own the Redskins starting tight end late in the year, run them
out in your lineup for Week 14, but be prepared to have a replacement
to close out the season.
The Colts tight end combo is already at risk of losing attention
in the passing game with the additions Indianapolis has made at
wide receiver (Andre Johnson), and it will get worse in the biggest
weeks of the fantasy year. All three defenses listed above finished
in the top half when it came to stopping tight ends in 2014, with
Houston being the best of the three, allowing the 5th fewest FPts/G
to the position. There won’t be any reason for Andrew Luck
to target to target Fleener and Allen, because if you read my
previous article the Colts wide receivers will have positive
matchups come playoff time. Depend on a tight end from another
team in December.
The negative for the Chiefs is all about the Week 15 matchup
with Baltimore. San Diego and Cleveland were both average in terms
of giving up points to fantasy defenses, so Kansas City shouldn’t
be expected to roll over them either. On the other hand, the Ravens
were the worst matchup for fantasy defenses in 2014 according
to the Fantasy
Strength of Schedule tool here at FFToday. The Chiefs defense
is currently being selected as a starter in fantasy drafts, but
that doesn’t mean they need to finish the season as the
starter in your defense slot.
New
York Jets (vs. Tennessee, at Dallas, vs. New
England)
According to Fantasy
Football Calculator, the Jets are the fourth defense off the
board in most drafts. They should be useful in Week 14 against
the Titans, but, I can’t imagine wanting to depend on them
in Weeks 15 and 16. The Cowboys and Patriots both present very
strong offenses, perhaps two of the strongest in the NFL, and
leaving a defense in your fantasy lineup when they are facing
a strong offense is never a wise decision.
There are no current fantasy expectations for the Steelers defense,
so consider this a P.S.A. to keep it that way. I already noted
earlier how poor of a matchup the Ravens were for fantasy defenses
in 2014, now add in the fact that the Steelers get last season’s
number two scoring offense in Week 15. Pittsburgh probably won’t
be on your roster to start the season, and they definitely shouldn’t
be on your roster to end it.
