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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Playoff Schedule Analysis - The Good
Players with favorable matchups Weeks 14-16
7/17/15


When it comes to draft time for fantasy football, there are those who like to take note of what kind of schedule their players are projected to face, and others who choose to ignore it.

The people who ignore strength of schedule do have valid reasoning. There is a lot of turnover in the NFL, so teams that were bad last year could be great this year, and vice versa. With so much unpredictability, why bother putting too much stock in upcoming schedules? This article isn’t meant to sway that group.

Fantasy football is all about projecting how players are going to perform from week to week, and if you have some sort of clue as to how they will match up against certain teams during the season, that can give you an advantage.

If you are a believer in paying attention to strength of schedule, this breakdown is for you. You have to make the playoffs first, but assuming you do, looking at schedules for weeks 14 through 16 during your draft can give you a chance for a big run at a fantasy title. On the flip side, you can at least make an attempt to avoid playoff disaster by skipping players with terrible matchups come playoff time.

Personally, I would never move a player significantly up or down my board based on playoff strength of schedule. I would, however, consider it as a tiebreaker if I were torn over two otherwise equally talented players.

In part one of this Playoff Schedule Analysis, I will focus on the players that currently project to have easy matchups during fantasy playoff weeks. And remember, if you want to keep up with the ever shifting schedule difficulty for your players during the season, visit the Fantasy Strength of Schedule Tool right here on FFToday.com throughout the year.

QUARTERBACK

EJ Manuel/Matt Cassel/Tyrod Taylor, BUF
(at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas)

It’s possible the Bills have by far the easiest playoff schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, at least based on 2014 defensive stats. The Eagles and Redskins both finished near the bottom in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback, while the Cowboys were middle of the road. Whichever player ends up winning the quarterback job in Buffalo will have a plethora of weapons at their disposal while facing defenses ill-equipped to stop them.

Right now there are two problems for owners looking to draft a late-round quarterback from the Bills. For one, the Buffalo hasn’t named a starter yet. Second, the Rex Ryan/Greg Roman combination isn’t appealing for fantasy purposes, given their shared love of the run game. Despite these negatives, it’s extremely hard to ignore the surprising upside in the Bills offense at the most important time of the fantasy season. You won’t draft any Bills quarterbacks, but certainly don’t forget about them in-season when you begin looking ahead to the playoffs.

Teddy Bridgewater, MIN
(at Arizona, vs. Chicago, vs. NY Giants)

Bridgewater is already gaining some momentum in the eyes of fantasy players, so the fact he could have an easy time in the playoffs should only help his pre-season value. In FFToday’s current quarterback rankings, Bridgewater is one of only four quarterbacks that earned an “upside” checkmark in large part due to his supporting cast and a full year of Norv Turner’s system under his belt.

To be clear, the schedule isn’t a cakewalk for the Vikings quarterback. The Cardinals in Week 14 (first playoff week for most leagues) gives a stiff, but not impossible, test to the second-year player. Once you start looking at conference championship and title weeks, your eyes should light up at the idea of Bridgewater running into the Bears and Giants, two of the worst teams at stopping the pass in 2014.

Sam Bradford, PHI
(vs. Buffalo, vs. Arizona, vs. Washington)

Here’s a case where your focus is on title week. The Bills have the potential to be the best defense in the NFL in 2015, and the Cardinals will be strong, but at least Philadelphia will get each of those teams at home. In championship week, Bradford owners will be salivating over the Eagles third-straight home game. Washington was the worst in the league at stopping fantasy quarterbacks in 2014 and the Eagles were among the main culprits when it came to making the Redskins look so bad. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez each had a crack at the D.C. defense. Take a look at their numbers:

2014
Player COMP ATT YDS TD INT FPts
Nick Foles (Week 3) 28 42 325 3 0 29.5
Mark Sanchez (Week 16) 37 50 374 2 1 28.9
Average 32.5 46 349.5 2.5 0.5 29.2

For some perspective, Andrew Luck finished number one in fantasy scoring with 27.6 FPts/G. Unless Washington’s defense makes a big leap forward in 2015, I want the Philadelphia Eagles signal-caller in my championship game lineup.

RUNNING BACK

T.J. Yeldon, JAC
(vs. Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans)

Rookie T.J. Yeldon may not be entering the best situation for season-long success, but come fantasy playoff time, he’ll be positioned to come up huge for his owners. Week 14 provides a decent matchup against the Colts, who were fairly average against the run last year. Once you start looking at Weeks 15 and 16, things begin to look juicy.

The Falcons and Saints were two of the worst against fantasy running backs last season. In standard scoring, Atlanta allowed 23.1 FPts/G and New Orleans gave up 22.8 FPts/G to running backs (Oakland was the worst at 23.7). In PPR, Atlanta was tied for worst with Oakland, giving up 28.6 FPts/G, while the Saints were fifth from the bottom, allowing 27.3 FPts/G.

Drafting a Jaguars running back can come with its headaches (just ask Toby Gerhart owners last year), but if you make it to December with Yeldon on your roster, things could be looking good for you when it matters most.

Jonathan Stewart

Stewart's schedule makes him an attractive RB2.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR
(vs. Atlanta, at NY Giants, at Atlanta)

I don’t mean to keep piling on the Falcons, but their 2014 results make it easy. Of course, they could turn it around and become a run-stopping force in 2015, especially with former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn taking over as head coach. Even with Quinn in house, it would be asking a lot for Atlanta to go from among the worst at stopping the run to a scary matchup for running backs.

Assuming he maintains his role as the lead man in Carolina and stays out of the trainer’s room, Jonathan Stewart will be looking strong in the fantasy playoffs. With two Atlanta matchups sandwiching a middle-of-the-road Giants defense, Stewart will be an easy start for fantasy owners still competing in December.

Arian Foster, HOU
(vs. New England, at Indianapolis, at Tennessee)

Foster has made a career out of putting up huge fantasy numbers against any level of defense, so it may not even be necessary to highlight his easy playoff matchups. Consider this list of the Patriots and Colts (two average run defenses) followed by a bad Titans run defense in championship week is icing on the cake for your high-priced draft pick. This is a situation where using the fantasy playoff schedule as a tiebreaker could easily come into play if you are torn between Foster and another similarly high-ranked running back.

WIDE RECEIVER

T.Y. Hilton/Andre Johnson/Donte Moncrief, IND
(at Jacksonville, vs. Houston, at Miami)

I’m highlighting the playoff weeks because that’s the point of this article, but the Colts receivers should be positioned to help carry your team starting in Week 11. After the Colts’ Week 10 bye, they won’t see another intimidating pass defense the rest of the season. T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson should come up big, though it remains to be seen how much a third receiver (likely Donte Moncrief) makes their presence known in fantasy.

The Jaguars are probably the most menacing defense on the Colts playoff schedule, yet Hilton managed to put up 202 yards and a touchdown across two matchups against them in 2014. The Texans and Dolphins were around the bottom third in the league at stopping fantasy receivers last year and Hilton’s two meetings with Houston turned out well – 273 receiving yards and one TD.

Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/John Brown, ARI
(vs. Minnesota, at Philadelphia, vs. Green Bay)

The Arizona triumvirate is currently a very popular mid-round group in fantasy drafts, with none of them creating separation from each other. In current ADP (from FF Calculator), Michael Floyd is going in the middle of Round 8, while Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown are going in Round 9. Its clear fantasy owners are indecisive on the trio, but it might be a good idea to get stock in one of them for December.

All three defenses the Cardinals will face during the fantasy playoffs were mediocre-to-bad in 2014. The Eagles gave up the most fantasy points to wide receivers last season and Green Bay allowed 22 touchdowns to wideouts, second most in the league. Each Cardinal receiver should at least garner fantasy interest in those weeks, and fantasy owners can only hope one of them will create separation as the must-start of the group. It’s possible Arizona could face three straight “shoot-out” games, during playoff time.

Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate, DET
(at St. Louis, at New Orleans, vs. San Francisco)

One of the top fantasy receiving duos in the NFL comes from Detroit, and each receiver will be looking strong late in the year. The toughest test of the three should come in Week 14 against the Rams, but their dome atmosphere will support a Lions aerial attack.

In Week 15, Detroit visits another dome in New Orleans, which might call for Stafford to match score for score with Drew Brees. Once title week rolls around, the Lions face a 49ers defense that was already mediocre against wide receivers in 2014, and has since lost two linebackers to surprise retirement, including star Patrick Willis. Johnson and Tate are each looking like solid draft day picks with of playoff upside.

TIGHT END

Here’s an interesting note: the three tight ends listed here come from the same teams as the three quarterbacks named earlier in the article. On the other hand, none of the wide receivers from these three teams made the cut, all the more reason to love these tight ends.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN
(at Arizona, vs. Chicago, vs. NY Giants)

Rudolph comes away looking the strongest of this group in December. The Cardinals, Bears and Giants were all poor against tight ends in 2014, in fact the Bears were the worst Rudolph still hasn’t had the breakout fantasy players have expected in the past, but with a healthy offseason and Teddy Bridgewater looking to take a big step forward in his sophomore season, Rudolph should be a solid contributor to your championship squads.

Zach Ertz, PHI
(vs. Buffalo, vs. Arizona, vs. Washington)

It’s not all smooth sailing for Ertz in the playoffs. The Bills were the stiffest defense against tight ends in 2014, and their defense on the whole looks stronger in 2015. Once you survive the first round, however, it gets relatively easy for the Eagles tight end. The Cardinals and Washington both ranked in the top-five in fantasy points allowed to the tight end last season.

Charles Clay, BUF
(at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs. Dallas)

The Week 14 game between the Bills and Eagles won’t be a huge battle of tight ends, as the Eagles were also one of the best at stopping the position in 2014. But just like Ertz, the skies clear once you hit the semi-finals and championship. He also gets a Washington matchup, which is about as friendly as it gets, and the Cowboys were mediocre at best against the position. It remains to be seen how Clay will fit into the Buffalo Bills offense, but assuming they find a way to work their biggest free agent acquisition of the year into their offense (now the fourth-highest paid TE in the league), Clay could definitely step up for fantasy owners late in the year.

DEFENSE

Chicago Bears
(vs. Washington, at Minnesota, at Tampa Bay)

The Bears are a defensive unit to keep in the back of your mind as they spend the season floating out on your waiver wire. Even if they get picked up at some point, they should be dropped around Week 11 or 12 with Denver and Green Bay on the schedule. Afterwards, they could potentially be a team to help you throughout your fantasy playoffs. Admittedly, the Vikings are primed for a huge offensive improvement, but that doesn’t mean they’ll deliver. The Bucs have a lot of weapons, but a rookie quarterback is typically a nice target for fantasy defenses. Don’t forget the Bears in December.

New Orleans Saints
(at Tampa Bay, vs. Detroit, vs. Jacksonville)

New Orleans falls in the same boat as Chicago: they’ll likely be hanging around on your waiver wire most of the season, but could very easily become an option in the fantasy playoffs. In Week 14, they get Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers, and as mentioned previously, rookie quarterbacks are good targets for the savvy fantasy owner. The Lions are probably a matchup to avoid in Week 15 if you can, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a total disaster if you were low on options. In title week, it’s the Jaguars, the best matchup for fantasy defenses in 2014. Unless you already have a must-start fantasy defense, your goal should be to plan on having the Saints on your roster for Week 16.

New England Patriots
(at Houston, vs. Tennessee, at NY Jets)

New England is the one defense on this list that you’ll likely have to target on draft day if you want them at all. Fantasy owners that feel the need to target high-rated defenses in the draft will peek ahead to the fantasy playoffs more than any other position. The Titans and Jets are two matchups where you should feel confident in rolling out the Patriots defense, while the Texans might be a tougher road to climb.