When it comes to draft time for fantasy football, there are those
who like to take note of what kind of schedule their players are
projected to face, and others who choose to ignore it.
The people who ignore strength of schedule do have valid reasoning.
There is a lot of turnover in the NFL, so teams that were bad
last year could be great this year, and vice versa. With so much
unpredictability, why bother putting too much stock in upcoming
schedules? This article isn’t meant to sway that group.
Fantasy football is all about projecting how players are going
to perform from week to week, and if you have some sort of clue
as to how they will match up against certain teams during the
season, that can give you an advantage.
If you are a believer in paying attention to strength of schedule,
this breakdown is for you. You have to make the playoffs first,
but assuming you do, looking at schedules for weeks 14 through
16 during your draft can give you a chance for a big run at a
fantasy title. On the flip side, you can at least make an attempt
to avoid playoff disaster by skipping players with terrible matchups
come playoff time.
Personally, I would never move a player significantly up or down
my board based on playoff strength of schedule. I would, however,
consider it as a tiebreaker if I were torn over two otherwise
equally talented players.
In part one of this Playoff Schedule Analysis, I will focus on
the players that currently project to have easy matchups during
fantasy playoff weeks. And remember, if you want to keep up with
the ever shifting schedule difficulty for your players during
the season, visit the Fantasy
Strength of Schedule Tool right here on FFToday.com throughout
the year.
It’s possible the Bills have by far the easiest playoff
schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, at least based on 2014 defensive
stats. The Eagles and Redskins both finished near the bottom in
fantasy points allowed to the quarterback, while the Cowboys were
middle of the road. Whichever player ends up winning the quarterback
job in Buffalo will have a plethora of weapons at their disposal
while facing defenses ill-equipped to stop them.
Right now there are two problems for owners looking to draft a
late-round quarterback from the Bills. For one, the Buffalo hasn’t
named a starter yet. Second, the Rex Ryan/Greg Roman combination
isn’t appealing for fantasy purposes, given their shared love
of the run game. Despite these negatives, it’s extremely hard
to ignore the surprising upside in the Bills offense at the most
important time of the fantasy season. You won’t draft any Bills
quarterbacks, but certainly don’t forget about them in-season
when you begin looking ahead to the playoffs.
Bridgewater is already gaining some momentum in the eyes of fantasy
players, so the fact he could have an easy time in the playoffs
should only help his pre-season value. In FFToday’s current quarterback
rankings, Bridgewater is one of only four quarterbacks that
earned an “upside” checkmark in large part due to his supporting
cast and a full year of Norv Turner’s system under his belt.
To be clear, the schedule isn’t a cakewalk for the Vikings quarterback.
The Cardinals in Week 14 (first playoff week for most leagues)
gives a stiff, but not impossible, test to the second-year player.
Once you start looking at conference championship and title weeks,
your eyes should light up at the idea of Bridgewater running into
the Bears and Giants, two of the worst teams at stopping the pass
in 2014.
Sam
Bradford, PHI (vs. Buffalo, vs. Arizona, vs. Washington)
Here’s a case where your focus is on title week. The Bills have
the potential to be the best defense in the NFL in 2015, and the
Cardinals will be strong, but at least Philadelphia will get each
of those teams at home. In championship week, Bradford owners
will be salivating over the Eagles third-straight home game. Washington
was the worst in the league at stopping fantasy quarterbacks in
2014 and the Eagles were among the main culprits when it came
to making the Redskins look so bad. Nick
Foles and Mark
Sanchez each had a crack at the D.C. defense. Take a look
at their numbers:
2014
Player
COMP
ATT
YDS
TD
INT
FPts
Nick Foles (Week 3)
28
42
325
3
0
29.5
Mark Sanchez (Week 16)
37
50
374
2
1
28.9
Average
32.5
46
349.5
2.5
0.5
29.2
For some perspective, Andrew
Luck finished number one in fantasy scoring with 27.6 FPts/G.
Unless Washington’s defense makes a big leap forward in 2015,
I want the Philadelphia Eagles signal-caller in my championship
game lineup.
RUNNING BACK
T.J.
Yeldon, JAC (vs. Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at
New Orleans)
Rookie T.J. Yeldon may not be entering the best situation for
season-long success, but come fantasy playoff time, he’ll be positioned
to come up huge for his owners. Week 14 provides a decent matchup
against the Colts, who were fairly average against the run last
year. Once you start looking at Weeks 15 and 16, things begin
to look juicy.
The Falcons and Saints were two of the worst against fantasy running
backs last season. In standard scoring, Atlanta allowed 23.1 FPts/G
and New Orleans gave up 22.8 FPts/G to running backs (Oakland
was the worst at 23.7). In PPR, Atlanta was tied for worst with
Oakland, giving up 28.6 FPts/G, while the Saints were fifth from
the bottom, allowing 27.3 FPts/G.
Drafting a Jaguars running back can come with its headaches (just
ask Toby
Gerhart owners last year), but if you make it to December
with Yeldon on your roster, things could be looking good for you
when it matters most.
I don’t mean to keep piling on the Falcons, but their 2014 results
make it easy. Of course, they could turn it around and become
a run-stopping force in 2015, especially with former Seahawks
defensive coordinator Dan Quinn taking over as head coach. Even
with Quinn in house, it would be asking a lot for Atlanta to go
from among the worst at stopping the run to a scary matchup for
running backs.
Assuming he maintains his role as the lead man in Carolina and
stays out of the trainer’s room, Jonathan Stewart will be looking
strong in the fantasy playoffs. With two Atlanta matchups sandwiching
a middle-of-the-road Giants defense, Stewart will be an easy start
for fantasy owners still competing in December.
Arian
Foster, HOU (vs. New England, at Indianapolis,
at Tennessee)
Foster has made a career out of putting up huge fantasy numbers
against any level of defense, so it may not even be necessary
to highlight his easy playoff matchups. Consider this list of
the Patriots and Colts (two average run defenses) followed by
a bad Titans run defense in championship week is icing on the
cake for your high-priced draft pick. This is a situation where
using the fantasy playoff schedule as a tiebreaker could easily
come into play if you are torn between Foster and another similarly
high-ranked running back.
I’m highlighting the playoff weeks because that’s the point of
this article, but the Colts receivers should be positioned to
help carry your team starting in Week 11. After the Colts’ Week
10 bye, they won’t see another intimidating pass defense the rest
of the season. T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson should come up big,
though it remains to be seen how much a third receiver (likely
Donte Moncrief) makes their presence known in fantasy.
The Jaguars are probably the most menacing defense on the Colts
playoff schedule, yet Hilton managed to put up 202 yards and a
touchdown across two matchups against them in 2014. The Texans
and Dolphins were around the bottom third in the league at stopping
fantasy receivers last year and Hilton’s two meetings with Houston
turned out well – 273 receiving yards and one TD.
The Arizona triumvirate is currently a very popular mid-round
group in fantasy drafts, with none of them creating separation
from each other. In current ADP (from FF Calculator), Michael
Floyd is going in the middle of Round 8, while Larry Fitzgerald
and John Brown are going in Round 9. Its clear fantasy owners
are indecisive on the trio, but it might be a good idea to get
stock in one of them for December.
All three defenses the Cardinals will face during the fantasy
playoffs were mediocre-to-bad in 2014. The Eagles gave up the
most fantasy points to wide receivers last season and Green Bay
allowed 22 touchdowns to wideouts, second most in the league.
Each Cardinal receiver should at least garner fantasy interest
in those weeks, and fantasy owners can only hope one of them will
create separation as the must-start of the group. It’s possible
Arizona could face three straight “shoot-out” games, during playoff
time.
One of the top fantasy receiving duos in the NFL comes from Detroit,
and each receiver will be looking strong late in the year. The
toughest test of the three should come in Week 14 against the
Rams, but their dome atmosphere will support a Lions aerial attack.
In Week 15, Detroit visits another dome in New Orleans, which
might call for Stafford to match score for score with Drew
Brees. Once title week rolls around, the Lions face a 49ers
defense that was already mediocre against wide receivers in 2014,
and has since lost two linebackers to surprise retirement, including
star Patrick Willis. Johnson and Tate are each looking like solid
draft day picks with of playoff upside.
TIGHT END
Here’s an interesting note: the three tight ends listed here come
from the same teams as the three quarterbacks named earlier in
the article. On the other hand, none of the wide receivers from
these three teams made the cut, all the more reason to love these
tight ends.
Kyle
Rudolph, MIN (at Arizona, vs. Chicago, vs. NY Giants)
Rudolph comes away looking the strongest of this group in December.
The Cardinals, Bears and Giants were all poor against tight ends
in 2014, in fact the Bears were the worst Rudolph still hasn’t
had the breakout fantasy players have expected in the past, but
with a healthy offseason and Teddy Bridgewater looking to take
a big step forward in his sophomore season, Rudolph should be
a solid contributor to your championship squads.
Zach
Ertz, PHI (vs. Buffalo, vs. Arizona, vs. Washington)
It’s not all smooth sailing for Ertz in the playoffs. The Bills
were the stiffest defense against tight ends in 2014, and their
defense on the whole looks stronger in 2015. Once you survive
the first round, however, it gets relatively easy for the Eagles
tight end. The Cardinals and Washington both ranked in the top-five
in fantasy points allowed to the tight end last season.
Charles
Clay, BUF (at Philadelphia, at Washington, vs.
Dallas)
The Week 14 game between the Bills and Eagles won’t be a
huge battle of tight ends, as the Eagles were also one of the
best at stopping the position in 2014. But just like Ertz, the
skies clear once you hit the semi-finals and championship. He
also gets a Washington matchup, which is about as friendly as
it gets, and the Cowboys were mediocre at best against the position.
It remains to be seen how Clay will fit into the Buffalo Bills
offense, but assuming they find a way to work their biggest free
agent acquisition of the year into their offense (now the fourth-highest
paid TE in the league), Clay could definitely step up for fantasy
owners late in the year.
DEFENSE
Chicago
Bears (vs. Washington, at Minnesota, at Tampa
Bay)
The Bears are a defensive unit to keep in the back of your mind
as they spend the season floating out on your waiver wire. Even
if they get picked up at some point, they should be dropped around
Week 11 or 12 with Denver and Green Bay on the schedule. Afterwards,
they could potentially be a team to help you throughout your fantasy
playoffs. Admittedly, the Vikings are primed for a huge offensive
improvement, but that doesn’t mean they’ll deliver.
The Bucs have a lot of weapons, but a rookie quarterback is typically
a nice target for fantasy defenses. Don’t forget the Bears
in December.
New Orleans falls in the same boat as Chicago: they’ll likely
be hanging around on your waiver wire most of the season, but
could very easily become an option in the fantasy playoffs. In
Week 14, they get Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers, and as mentioned
previously, rookie quarterbacks are good targets for the savvy
fantasy owner. The Lions are probably a matchup to avoid in Week
15 if you can, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a total disaster
if you were low on options. In title week, it’s the Jaguars,
the best matchup for fantasy defenses in 2014. Unless you already
have a must-start fantasy defense, your goal should be to plan
on having the Saints on your roster for Week 16.
New England is the one defense on this list that you’ll
likely have to target on draft day if you want them at all. Fantasy
owners that feel the need to target high-rated defenses in the
draft will peek ahead to the fantasy playoffs more than any other
position. The Titans and Jets are two matchups where you should
feel confident in rolling out the Patriots defense, while the
Texans might be a tougher road to climb.