While not the only deciding factor for fantasy success, the draft
is arguably the most critical part of your fantasy season. But how
do you find success while drafting a fantasy team? To put it simply,
draft players with the best value. Pinpointing players that other
managers have undervalued and adding them to your team can help
you dominate your league. On the flip side, avoiding players that
are overvalued will keep disappointments off of your roster.
But how do we decide if a player is overvalued or undervalued?
There is no “secret formula” or one specific way to
determine the value against ADP but there are several factors
to consider including changes in the offensive environment (players
or coaches), recent performance, and public perception to name
a few. With that being said, here are some tight ends to consider
investing in and some to draft with caution.
Note: ADP based on PPR scoring
The case for Pitts being undervalued: Pitts
is undoubtedly a phenomenal talent who is due for positive regression
and his price has finally fallen.
The case against Pitts being undervalued: Pitts’
lack of success has primarily been due to quarterback play but
Desmond Ridder does not appear to be a step up from Marcus Mariota.
Verdict: After burning fantasy managers for
two straight seasons, the price is finally right to draft Kyle
Pitts. After being drafted in the first four rounds in each of
the last two seasons, Atlanta's tantalizing tight end has finally
slid to a mid-round price.
Everything about Pitts screams that he can be a superstar and
a true difference-maker. First, it’s clear that Pitts passes
the eye test. He makes plays that few tight ends in the NFL can
make. However, when diving deeper into the statistics, Pitts’
outlook gets even more exciting. Pitts ranked second in target
share (27.3%) and was first in target rate (34.3%), showing the
Falcons want him heavily involved in the passing attack. Pitts
also ranked 5th in yards per route run among tight ends. There
are several more encouraging statistics surrounding Pitts including
his air yards share and number of deep targets, among others.
If Pitts is among the elite tight ends in these critical advanced
metrics, why does he fail to live up to expectations? It may sound
a bit too simple, but it truly comes down to quarterback play.
In 2022, Pitts ranked dead last among all pass catchers (WR and
TE with 50 targets min.) in catchable target rate. Just 64.9 percent
of his targets were deemed catchable. This resulted in 541 unrealized
air yards, the most of any TE even though Pitts played just 10
games last season. While Pitts will ideally see better quarterback
play this season, Falcons starting quarterback Desmond Ridder
ranked 30th in catchable pass rate. However, it must be noted
that Ridder played just four games in 2022 so there is an opportunity
for improvement.
The majority of the fantasy community would agree that Pitts
should be an elite fantasy tight end. This just hasn’t happened
yet. However, recent disappointments have dropped his price a
full 2-3 rounds from last season. Given Pitts’ talent and
upside, this seems to be the perfect time to buy low on a potential
breakout.
The case for Everett being undervalued: Everett
is an athletic tight end and the Chargers will likely be one of
the league’s most pass-heavy and high-scoring offenses.
The case against Everett being undervalued:
Everett does not have a history of being a productive tight end
and has primarily been a boom or bust option in fantasy.
Verdict: Everett quietly had the best season
of his career in 2022. He set career bests in nearly every statistic,
including targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns (tied career
high). Everett’s 2022 performance placed him as the TE11 in fantasy
points per game. You may be wondering why Everett’s price has
plummeted to TE19 if he finished as a TE1 last season. It’s actually
fairly simple. Chargers’ top receiver Keenan Allen returns after
missing seven games in 2023 and Los Angeles added TCU wide receiver
Quentin Johnson in the first round of this year’s draft.
Despite there being more mouths to feed in this offense, Everett
still provides value. The first reason is price. Going in the
14th round or even later, Everett is essentially free. This small
investment means it is not a problem if Everett doesn’t
live up to expectations.
This offseason, former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore
joined the Los Angeles coaching staff. While in Dallas, Moore’s
offense threw the ball at a high rate and was incredibly high
scoring. In fact, Dallas was top-five in scoring in each of the
last two seasons. With the OC’s move to Los Angeles, all signs
point to Moore making the most out of Justin Herbert’s arm talent
and the weapons around. Nobody would be shocked if Moore’s arrival
leads to Herbert leading the league in passing yards and the Chargers
leading the league in scoring. Given his cheap price and the high-powered
offensive environment, Everett proves to be a great value in 2023
drafts.
The case for Kittle being overvalued: Kittle
finds himself in a crowded offense and is a prime candidate for
touchdown regression.
The case against Kittle being overvalued: Kittle
will be on the field for nearly every snap on a highly productive
offense and is one of the league’s most efficient tight
ends.
Verdict: In terms of all-around skillset, George
Kittle is arguably the best tight end in the NFL. However, this
does not always translate to fantasy success. While Kittle certainly
has the talent to be a great draft pick, several factors are working
against him. The first factor is price. In the middle of the 5th
round, there are still several potential league winners still
available, and Kittle is certainly not a league winner. These
players include Calvin Ridley, Cam Akers, and Trevor Lawrence,
to name a few.
A key reason that Kittle may disappoint fantasy managers is the
weapons within the San Francisco offense. Christian McCaffrey,
Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are all high-end talents and will
command touches on a weekly basis. On top of this, reports indicate
that the 49ers want to get Aiyuk more involved and many in the
fantasy community have Aiyuk pegged as a breakout candidate. With
several mouths to feed and the potential for an Aiyuk breakout,
it would not be shocking if Kittle saw fewer touches and a reduction
from his 19.8% target share in 2022.
Many who are drafting Kittle point to his strong finish to 2022.
From Week 11 to Week 18, Kittle was the TE2 (PPR), scoring 15.9
points per game. This finish is carried by high touchdown numbers.
In these eight games, Kittle had nine touchdowns, a rate that
is simply not sustainable. Prior to last season, Kittle had never
scored more than six touchdowns in a full season. In my opinion,
this finish to 2022 is propping up his 5th round cost. The fantasy
community often falls victim to recency bias and this is the case
with Kittle.
The case for Waller being overvalued: Waller
has not been productive for a full season since 2020 and joins
an offense that hardly utilizes tight ends.
The case against Waller being overvalued: With
multiple seasons of over 1100 receiving yards, Waller is one of
the only tight ends with the talent and upside to compete with
the elites at the position.
Verdict: Following a move to New York, Waller
seems to be the sweetheart of the fantasy community. However,
it seems that some fantasy managers are living in the past. Waller
has not been on the field for a full season since 2020. Over the
last two seasons, he has played just 20 games, finishing as the
TE6 or better in just six of them. Waller has more weekly finishes
as a TE2 or worse (nine) than he does as an elite TE in the top
six performers on the week. He has the talent to be a game-changing
player and make a significant impact on fantasy rosters. However,
these performances were over two years ago. Since then, Waller
has been unable to stay on the field and has not been reliable
while healthy. His recent performances make his 7th round price
fairly risky.
Waller’s move to New York also places him in a less than ideal
offensive environment. With an effective rushing quarterback in
Daniel Jones and one of the league’s best running backs in Saquon
Barkley, the Giants heavily relied on the run last year and ranked
just 22nd in passing rate last season.
The Giants are likely to be below average in pass rate once again
and they rarely targeted their tight ends last season, throwing
to the position just 65 times - the second-lowest rate of any
team in the league. While these numbers will certainly increase
with the addition of Waller, it is concerning that this offense
rarely utilizes the position.
1100-yard performances in 2019 and 2020 solidified Waller as
a top-tier receiving tight end. Now entering his age 31 season,
Waller has struggled to stay on the field as of late. His lack
of recent production (although this is due to injury) combined
with a less than ideal offensive environment should lead to a
cautious approach when considering Waller.
