The Falcons landed the biggest name in the quarterback free agent
market, Kirk Cousins. After six productive seasons in Minnesota,
Cousins will be part of the changing of the guard in Atlanta.
Coupled with an overhauled coaching staff, signing Cousins is
a clear sign of the philosophical changes coming to Atlanta. Gone
are the days of Arthur Smith’s maddening offense. Cousins
will be the quarterback who can effectively distribute passes
to the weapons that Atlanta has heavily invested in.
On his own, Cousins is not a particularly intriguing option in
fantasy. He’s 36 years old and is recovering from an Achilles
tear and the Falcons are expected to make Bijan Robinson the focal
point of their offense. In Minnesota, the offense revolved around
Justin Jefferson. Cousins is also a statue in the pocket, adding
zero fantasy production with his legs. His most intriguing trait
will be his ability to deliver quality targets to Atlanta’s pass
catchers. A low-end QB1 season would likely be his ceiling.
Bijan Robinson was arguably the largest victim in Arthur Smith’s
regime. After being an elite prospect from the University of Texas,
Robinson was selected by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick.
He then landed in a timeshare with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle
Patterson. However, reports indicate that this timeshare will
be dissolved and Robinson is in line for a “Christian McCaffrey-like”
role. A large workload would allow Robinson to produce at an appropriate
fantasy level relative to his talent.
Robinson passed the eye test as a rookie, regularly shaking defenders
and making jaw-dropping plays. This was backed up by his 0.28
missed tackles forced per attempt, the 4th highest rate among
RBs. The only thing holding him back was his perplexing usage
under Smith. With a new coaching staff, it’s wheels up for
Robinson who will likely be one of the first couple of running
backs selected in your draft.
Bijan Robinson is the apple of everyone’s eye, but Allgeier is
still in Atlanta. Robinson can’t be on the field for every snap,
and Allgeier will be the player to complement him.
In this role, Allgeier doesn’t provide much fantasy value.
He handled 38 percent of Atlanta’s rush attempts last season
and was still just the per-game RB40. His rush attempt share should
dwindle in 2024, pulling his fantasy value down with it.
But, Allgeier is one of the most intriguing handcuffs in all
of fantasy football. If Robinson misses time, Allgeier almost
instantly becomes an RB2. There is almost no depth in the Falcons’
RB room meaning Allgeier would assume a massive workload in the
case of an injury to Robinson. An ascending Falcons offense would
allow him to be a legitimate fantasy asset if he has the backfield
to himself.
WR Drake London
(2023 WR Rank – No.42, 10.9 FPts/G)
Drake London is another top-ten pick from the Falcons who has
not produced at a high level thanks to Arthur Smith. He was a
highly touted prospect out of USC but has not lived up to expectations
yet.
On top of Smith’s antics, London has dealt with poor quarterback
play, hindering his ability to produce quality fantasy stats.
His 73.4 percent catchable target rate in 2023 placed him 36th
among WRs. Last season, Kirk Cousins provided receivers with a
catchable target on 82.3 percent of passes, 3rd among QBs.
Thanks to an offense that should throw the ball at a far higher
rate, many drafters have London pegged as a breakout in his third
season. He is being drafted as a high-end WR2 in most leagues.
Betting on the talent of London is advisable. Significant changes
to Atlanta’s offense and improved quarterback play should
allow him to finally break out in 2024.
Darnell Mooney was not a member of the Falcons last season, but
he was part of another abysmal passing offense in the Chicago
Bears. Chicago’s production through the air was minimal,
and the limited yardage was primarily produced by D.J. Moore.
After a 140-target, 1055-yard season in 2021, Mooney has averaged
60.5 targets 453.5 yards in the last two years. This production
is not particularly inspiring for his fantasy value heading into
2024.
Mooney is the de facto WR2 thanks to a lacking depth chart in
Atlanta and Kirk Cousins should be able to prop up Mooney’s
fantasy value with a couple of spike weeks. But as the fourth
option in the offense, Mooney seems like an inconsistent fantasy
asset at best. Taking shots at players with unknown upside seems
to be a better idea instead of settling for Mooney.
Just two years ago, Kyle Pitts was being discussed as the future
of the tight end position. He was just the second player at the
position to go for 1000 yards as a rookie and seemed to have a
skill set that no tight end possessed.
However, Pitts came crashing down to earth in the last two seasons,
frustrating fantasy owners in the process. He’s scored just
5 TDs the last two seasons and has lacked volume in the Falcons
offense.
There is some good news. Like Drake London, betting on talent
in a revamped offense with a new coaching staff is a good idea.
Pitts’ ability to run vertical, down-field routes and act
essentially as a WR allows him to have an incredibly unique role.
85.6 percent of his routes came from the slot or outside, the
3rd highest rate among TEs. His 11.9-yard aDOT was also the highest
mark among TEs by far.
Pitts is just 23 years old and has been set up to fail in every
year of his NFL career. He now has a situation that will actually
allow him to produce for fantasy purposes. Bet on his talent once
again in 2024.
