QB Bryce Young
(2023 QB Rank – No.29, 10.4 FPts/G)
Last season’s number-one overall pick struggled mightily
during his rookie season. But can you really blame him? Just about
every positional unit within the Panthers’ offense was awful.
Bryce Young was set up for failure last season.
The offensive line was among the worst in the league. Young was
sacked 62 times, second-most in the league. Outside of Adam Thielen,
Carolina’s WR core did nothing to ease Young into his NFL career.
Panthers’ wide receivers ranked 31st in terms of separation created
on their routes. Among 153 qualified pass catchers, D.J. Chark
ranked 143rd in ESPN’s
Open Score Metric while Jonathan
Mingo ranked 152nd. These guys did anything but help their
rookie QB.
Carolina took steps to improve the cast around their QB who they
hope to be the face of their franchise. They made significant
additions to the offensive line, traded for Diontae Johnson, and
added Xavier Legette in Round 1 of the NFL draft. They also added
“QB whisperer” Dave Canales as their new head coach.
All of these changes are promising in regards to Young taking
a step forward in year 2. However, the fantasy community doesn’t
want much to do with him and he is being drafted as the QB25.
Given his essentially free price, I don’t mind taking a
shot on Young as your QB2 in hopes he takes a leap under Canales
with new weapons. However, my expectations aren’t high and
middling QB2 production would be a win.
Part of Carolina’s revamped arsenal is rookie running back
Jonathon Brooks. A former Texas Longhorn, Brooks was selected
in Round 2 of this year’s draft. Brooks is an intriguing
prospect and would have likely been a first-round talent if it
were not for an ACL tear that he suffered last season. At this
point, Brooks is expected to make a full recovery and should participate
in the majority of training camp.
Brooks is by far the most intriguing talent in this backfield.
He is a dynamic, athletic player and assuming he can return to
form, he provides this Carolina offense with a skillset that no
other running back can. It would be shocking if Brooks is not
the RB1 by season’s end.
Earning the RB1 role in a Dave Canales offense is incredibly
lucrative for fantasy football. This was put on display in Tampa
Bay last season (Canales was the Buccaneers’ OC), where
Rachaad White was a true bell-cow and saw 336 touches.
If there is anyone who will take on the full workload in this
backfield, it’s Brooks. With the talent he displayed at
Texas, he can deliver some big-time fantasy performances with
a solid workload. At a price of RB22, I am interested in betting
on Brooks’ talent and chances to see big volume down the
stretch.
Speaking of a bell-cow role, Chuba Hubbard completely displaced
Miles Sanders to earn the RB1 job last season. Hubbard was regularly
seeing 15-20 touches (often 20+) per game during the back half
of the year. Given the overall offensive environment, it was tough
for anyone to deliver meaningful fantasy performances, but Hubbard
was respectable as a starter. In seven games as the lead back,
he was an RB1 in two games and an RB2 in two games.
Hubbard is currently the favorite to reprise this RB1 role to
start the season as Brooks is eased back from injury. While it’s
likely that he is eventually surpassed by Brooks, Hubbard can
certainly provide some valuable weeks to start the year.
Drafters seem to understand this as Hubbard is drafted as an
RB5 (RB52 overall). There isn’t much sense in adding Hubbard
to rosters unless you take some high-upside swings on rookies
(or breakout candidates) whose production will likely come later
in the year. When drafting Hubbard, hope for some quality weeks
to start the season, but don’t expect much down the stretch.
After a scorching start to his career playing with Antonio Brown
and Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson severely regressed in
Pittsburgh’s run-heavy offense with Kenny Pickett. Following
a lackluster 2023 season, Pittsburgh decided to part ways with
Johnson and traded him to Carolina.
Although things didn’t work out in Pittsburgh, Johnson
is undoubtedly a quality receiver and is widely regarded as one
of the league’s premier route runners. Since ESPN began
tracking the aforementioned Open Score in 2017, Johnson has been
the league’s best receiver in this metric. He posted another
high-end score in 2023, ranking 12th.
Johnson is in line to be the “do it all” first read
option in Carolina’s offense. While this may not sound appealing
on the surface, this role was very valuable for Adam Thielen in
2023. Thielen finished the year as the WR17 in PPR leagues. He
was also on a tear to start the year as the WR3 through Week 6.
With Johnson’s ability to get open and role as the go-to
receiver, I love grabbing him as my WR3.
Yet another new addition to the Carolina offense, the Panthers
spent their first-round pick on the hometown kid, University of
South Carolina’s Xavier Legette.
Legette provided scouts with a controversial prospect profile.
He put together an impressive highlight reel last season. However,
some of his advanced metrics were not what you are looking for
out of an alpha, X receiver. It was also concerning that Legette
never had more than 200 yards in a season prior to his fifth-year
breakout.
Despite these red flags, the Panthers selected Legette in hopes
that he could be an effective big-bodied, vertical receiver alongside
Diontae Johnson.
I have issues with Legette’s prospect profile and am hesitant
about what kind of value the vertical threat receiver on this
offense will provide. However, if you want to take a chance on
Legette he can be drafted as a bench asset with a price tag of
WR58.
WR Adam Thielen
(2023 WR Rank – No.25, 13.6 FPts/G)
Adam Thielen shocked the fantasy community and finished the season
as a WR2 (WR25 in FPts/G). This included an absolute tear to start
the season where he was a top-five fantasy option through a third
of the year.
Thielen was a PPR cheat code as Carolina’s first-read receiver
and his fantasy volume was propped up by dominating targets. Thielen
finished the year with 137 targets, 52 more than any other player
in Carolina.
Unfortunately, a younger and more talented receiver in Diontae
Johnson is coming to take these lay-up targets in 2024. Without
a guarantee of triple-digit targets, I have a hard time drafting
Thielen this season.
I wasn’t joking when I said the Panthers did everything
in their power to set Bryce Young up for success in his sophomore
season. They added yet another offensive weapon, selecting another
Texas Longhorn, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Sanders was selected in Round 4 of the draft and was by no means
considered to be an elite TE prospect. However, there is not a
whole lot of resistance in Sanders’ pursuit of the TE1 job.
The other TEs on the roster are Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas.
This is not a whole lot of talent to surpass. However, there remain
questions about the value of the TE spot in this offense.
Essentially you are betting on Sanders to run hot on touchdowns
- a bet I don’t want to take with anyone in Carolina. However,
if you are scrambling at tight end, Sanders is free as a TE3 or
TE4 depending on where you look.
