Anthony Richardson proves to be one of the most intriguing and
polarizing options at quarterback in 2024. He played just two
full games last season, scoring 21.9 and 29.6 points in these
contents. He also appeared in two additional games but played
less than 40 percent of snaps. In one of these games, he managed
to score 17.7 points on just 18 offensive snaps. Truly absurd.
Richardson now comes off the board as the QB5. His ADP is almost
exactly in line with fellow sophomore QB C.J. Stroud, so Richardson
can often be scooped up as the QB6.
We know what we’re getting with Richardson when he’s
on the field. He’s is far from a high-quality passer, finishing
his rookie season with a 59.5 completion percentage. With Richardson,
inefficient passing truly doesn’t matter from a fantasy
perspective. In his two full starts, he had 40+ rushing yards
and found the endzone in both games.
We know that having rushing ability at QB provides a massive
edge. Richardson has the ability and willingness to tack on 50+
rushing yards in any given week. He also has the frame to be used
as a battering ram at the goal-line. With this skill set, a season
with 600-plus rushing yards and 10+ TDs on the ground is very
realistic.
Richardson is one of a handful of QBs who can truly finish as
the QB1. The only real question is, can he stay healthy? I am
willing to take this bet every time and love grabbing Richardson
in drafts.
Last season was an up-and-down year for Jonathan Taylor and his
fantasy owners. The season was riddled with contract disputes,
injuries, and inconsistent production. Taylor started the season
on the PUP list (ankle) and did not appear in a game until Week
5. He also missed a stretch of games late in the season due to
a thumb injury. When he was on the field, he provided some productive
weeks but was relatively inconsistent. He appeared in 10 games,
finishing as a weekly RB1 four times. However, these RB1 finishes
never came in consecutive weeks.
With a new contract and injuries behind him, Taylor will have
a fresh start and is being drafted as the RB5 in most formats.
I am hesitant to take him at this price, but let’s take
a look at the good and the bad of Taylor’s 2024 outlook.
Starting with the good, Taylor has proven to be a quality rusher
who can churn out yards when necessary but is also capable of
a house call at any moment. The Colts will be a high-paced, run-first
offense and will feature Taylor as an offensive focal point. He
should see plenty of rushing work and will have every opportunity
to rack up yards on the ground.
Looking to the bad, Taylor may have a hard time seeing high-value
targets and red zone touches. Taylor has never been highly utilized
or effective as a pass catcher and in an offense with Anthony
Richardson as the QB, don’t expect a bump in usage as a
receiver. Speaking of Richardson, we just discussed his effectiveness
as a rusher near the goal-line. Taylor will certainly see work
in this area of the field, but the Colts would be foolish not
to give goal-line rushes to Richardson. There is a path for Taylor
to pay off at his RB5 price with volume, but the red flags are
very apparent.
After having a breakout season in 2022, Pittman continued to
produce in 2023. He finished the year with 156 targets, 109 receptions,
and 1152 yards. Pittman only found the endzone four times in each
of the last two seasons, but this is not unusual given the Colts’
rushing tendencies in the red zone.
Pittman has established himself as an elite target earner in
the NFL. He garnered a 30.5 percent target share last year, 4th
among WRs. His ability to earn targets sets him up with a similar
outlook in 2024. He should see 140-150 targets as the Colts’
top option in the passing game. He may see a slight dip in catch
rate and raw number of receptions due to a transition from Gardner
Minshew to Anthony Richardson. However, his sheer volume should
be enough to maintain consistent fantasy production.
Pittman’s upside is slightly capped due to his lack of
red zone usage. However, his volume will keep him afloat. Pittman
is drafted as the WR24 and is arguably one of the safest picks
in 2024 drafts.
In an offense that primarily features the rushing attack and
has a target hog in Michael Pittman Jr., it’s hard for a
secondary receiver to carve out a fantasy-relevant role.
Regardless, Josh Downs’ rookie season should be regarded
as a success. He established himself as the Colts’ primary
slot receiver, a role he will reprise in 2024. He was a full-time
player for the vast majority of the season and was able to earn
his fair share of targets with 6-plus in eight games.
Downs showed flashes of true talent in his rookie campaign. At
a WR62 price tag, he is an interesting late-round swing given
his full-time role and opportunity to grow as a talent. However,
expectations should be realistic. Flex-level production would
be a big win for Downs.
The Colts selected Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, with
the 52nd (Round 2) pick of the 2024 draft. Heading into the draft,
there were conflicting views on Mitchell from many analysts. Some
viewed him as a Round 1 talent - an athletic freak, featuring
a long frame and explosive 4.34 speed. However, he lacked the
polish in route running and contested catch ability that many
teams were looking for. Ultimately, he has the kind of athletic
profile that is worth taking a stab at in Round 2.
Mitchell will slot in as a deep threat for the Colts. He will
have to compete with Alec
Pierce for this role but Mitchell will certainly be featured
in this offense in some capacity. A rotation with Pierce or a
full-time role for Mitchell are both realistic outcomes.
Mitchell has the profile to deliver some big plays and can certainly
do this with Anthony Richardson’s cannon for an arm. He
can be a late-round upside play in drafts but the red flags in
his prospect profile should keep drafters from getting too aggressive.
After finding moderate success as a rookie in 2022, Jelani Woods
missed the entirety of the 2023 season due to a hamstring injury.
Woods is ready to go for the 2024 season and is already generating
some buzz in early practices. With limited competition in the
TE room, Woods will likely be the TE1 in Indianapolis. However,
the Colts have historically utilized multiple TEs and there is
a good chance this will likely be the case again in 2024. But
betting on Woods to emerge from this TE group is not a terrible
idea. Woods is an athletic freak and earned a 10.0 relative athletic
score (RAS). Woods will likely not be drafted in most leagues
but can be used as a bet on athleticism if you are scrambling
at the position.
