A lack of success in New Orleans has led to Derek Carr becoming
one of the NFL’s most highly criticized quarterbacks. This
is especially true in fantasy football circles, as he hardly finished
as a QB2 in FPts/G during his first season with the Saints.
Carr is not much of a fantasy asset as he offers very little
on the ground (zero rushing TDs the last three years). He has
spent most of his career as a middling QB2 and will likely continue
this trend in 2024. However, he does provide value due to the
offensive environment he can create.
Carr has consistently supported top-ten fantasy wide receivers.
Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, and Hunter Renfrow (yes, Hunter Renfrow)
all had seasons as the WR10 or better with Carr under center.
He also captained a highly underrated Saints offense in 2023.
New Orleans ranked 9th in scoring offense last season, beating
out teams like the Packers, Texans, and Chiefs.
Carr should not be circled on anyone’s rankings sheets
heading into drafts, but there is reason to be optimistic for
him as a bye-week filler given the offensive weapons around him.
Alvin Kamara is one player who highly benefits from Derek Carr’s
presence in New Orleans. Carr’s little-known alter ego as
Captain Checkdown pairs perfectly with Kamara’s pass-catching
abilities out of the backfield. We saw this in full force last
season. Kamara led all RBs in targets per game with 6.6.
The fantasy community is concerned with Kamara’s age and declining
efficiency. However, there is still reason to believe that Kamara
can be a valuable asset in PPR leagues as there is little competition
in New Orleans for Kamara’s underneath targets. Top receivers
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have historically had high aDOTs
and Jamaal
Williams has 36 total targets the last two seasons.
Even if Kamara ends up splitting rushing work with Kendre Miller
and gets vultured at the goaline on occasion by Taysom Hill, his
usage as a receiver could easily make up the difference to return
value on his RB18 price tag.
A slew of injuries prevented Kendre Miller from ever finding
a groove during his rookie season (41 rush attempts). Heading
into his sophomore season, the Alvin Kamara skeptics believe Miller
will play a meaningful role.
This is a somewhat reasonable expectation given Kamara’s
age and struggles as a rusher. However, the talent and capabilities
of Miller are largely unknown. He only appeared in eight games
last season and cracked a 20 percent snap share just twice. He
was impactful in both of those contests, finishing as a weekly
RB2 in both.
The question comes down to how new OC Klint Kubiak views this
running back tandem and whether or not he can beat out veteran
Jamaal Williams for the No.2 running back job in camp. There is
certainly an outcome where Miller is once again kept in a highly
limited role. But with Kamara approaching the age cliff, taking
a shot on Miller as a flier is fine if you believe Kamara is over
the hill.
WR Chris Olave
(2023 WR Rank – No.19, 14.5 FPts/G)
Through two seasons, Chris Olave has displayed the traits and
had the peripheral metrics of someone who can be an elite fantasy
option. Unfortunately, Olave hasn’t been able to put all
the pieces together thus far.
Last season, he proved to be a target earner and saw the high-value
targets that lead to fantasy production. He ranked 17th in target
share, 12th in total targets, 6th in air yards, and 4th in deep
targets.
There is hope that Olave will be in line to see a larger number
of “layup targets” that bump his catch rate in Kubiak’s
offense. Easy receptions are likely the key to unlocking Olave
and pushing him into the upper tier of fantasy receivers along
with more trips to the endzone. Olave has just 9 TDs over his
first two seasons.
Given his age, performance through two seasons, and position
as the clear top option in New Orleans, betting on Olave to put
it all together in year three is a good idea. He’s a solid
WR2 in most formats with WR1 upside.
Rashid Shaheed is another Saints wideout entering year three
of his NFL career. To this point, Shaheed has been a downfield
burner known for his big play ability. He effectively utilized
his speed last season, often connecting with Derek Carr for long
touchdowns. These splash plays resulted in five games with 15-plus
fantasy points.
Heading into 2024, Shaheed is an attractive upside pick given
the expectation that he will play a full-time role in the Saints
offense. In 10 games as a full-time player (80+ percent snap share),
he has averaged 12.1 FPts/G on an 18 percent target share and
28 percent air yards share.
Shaheed has shown flashes of true talent while playing in a limited
role. He will by no means be an elite fantasy option due to his
role as a deep threat. But with more snaps and big play ability,
he is the type of player who can win you a matchup in any given
week.
Early in the offseason, Johnson was regarded as a popular late-round
option at tight end. The departure of Michael Thomas would allow
Johnson to compete for short and intermediate targets. TD vulture
Jimmy Graham has also left town, allowing Johnson to play a bigger
role in the red zone.
These hopes were quickly brought into question after Johnson
suffered a foot injury during minicamp in June. As of now, Johnson
is expected to be available for Week 1 but there is no guarantee
on this timeline or his effectiveness upon return.
This will be a situation to monitor throughout the offseason.
If reports indicate that Johnson is progressing well and will
be good to go for Week 1, he once again becomes an interesting
selection late in drafts. But if a setback occurs, there are likely
better TE options that do not have the same risks.
As always, Taysom Hill provides one of the most unique fantasy
outlooks in the entire NFL. It should be noted that Hill only
provides any sort of value on platforms where he is classified
as a TE. If he must be played as a QB, Hill is not worth any consideration.
The offseason ritual of reports about Hill’s usage are
already in full swing. Beat reporters are already talking about
how Taysom has been lining up all over the formation in a variety
of packages. While these reports make for mildly interesting content
to fill off-season news feeds, they don’t help us much as
fantasy players.
Hill’s value in fantasy football is fully driven by his
red zone usage and ability to find the end zone. In weeks where
he does not score, he is often worthless. However, Hill is no
stranger to the endzone, scoring six times in 2023. This resulted
in Hill being a weekly TE1 in 50 percent of games last season.
Ultimately, Hill is nothing more than a bye-week fill-in or emergency
option if your starter is injured. It is incredibly difficult
to predict when he will score and if he doesn’t score, he
will be a liability in your lineup.
