After beginning his career with minimal stability as a starting
quarterback, Baker Mayfield has seemingly found a home in Tampa
Bay. Mayfield signed a $99 million extension with the Buccaneers
this offseason, locking him in for an additional three seasons.
Mayfield was a mediocre fantasy option from a per-game standpoint
in 2023. However, he finished as the QB10 overall and delivered
7 QB1 performances across the year.
The Bucs are “running it back” with Mayfield at QB
and the Godwin-Evans duo as his primary weapons. The only key
component of last year’s core that will not be back is former
OC Dave Canales.
With Tampa Bay’s primary players returning, the outlook for Mayfield
should not be far off from what we saw last year. He will be able
to deliver some QB1 weeks given the elite weapons around him,
but finishing as a QB2 in FPts/G is what we should expect. Mayfield
offers little upside and should only be drafted with plans to
use him on bye weeks or in case of emergency.
Rachaad White was one of fantasy football’s biggest breakouts
in 2023. He emerged from the running back dead zone to deliver
an RB4 season (overall) in PPR leagues. White’s dominant
fantasy performance came on the back of massive volume, racking
up over 300 touches including 64 receptions – 4th among
all running backs.
White dominated the Tampa Bay backfield in every capacity. He
handed 67 percent of rushing attempts, ran 383 routes (2nd among
RBs), and received nearly every goal-line carry. At a volume-driven
position, this is all you can from your fantasy RB.
Heading into 2024, White is a highly debated player. Sure, he
delivered a high-end fantasy season but he didn’t look the
best doing it. He struggled in nearly every running back efficiency
metric. This included missed tackles forced per attempt, breakaway
run rate, rush yards over expected, and more.
The path to success for White is once again dominating touches.
Some drafters are hesitant about this outcome and shy away from
the inefficiency which is why you’ll find him in the high-end
RB2 range in most drafts.
Tampa Bay added another Pac 12 (RIP) player to their offense,
selecting former Oregon running back Bucky Irving. In the eyes
of the Bucs coaching staff, Irving will ideally be able to take
some work off White’s plate. Tampa Bay’s coaches and
front office have made it clear that they want to reduce White’s
workload. They gave Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker tryouts last
season to play this complementary role but neither met expectations
and White remained the bell-cow.
The question becomes, can Irving be the secondary option in this
backfield? Although he struggled in athletic testing, his production
in college indicates that he could be an effective back in the
NFL. This is especially true as a pass-catcher. Irving was the
FBS leader in receptions among RBs last season.
At this point, Irving is nothing more than a late-round flier.
His value is primarily driven by the fact that he has little competition
for the RB2 job in Tampa Bay.
It seems that Mike Evans will never slow down. In 2023, he extended
his 1000-yard streak to 10-straight years and had one of his best
seasons at 30 years old. This came in a season where Evans had
plenty of doubters due to his age and uncertain quarterback situation.
Evans had elite fantasy production and looked the part on the
field as well. Nothing from his season seemed flukey and he proved
to still be an elite receiver.
The fantasy community seems more than willing to bet on Evans
heading into his age 31 season. He comes off the board as the
WR17, a price that seems to bake in the fact that he may not be
able to reproduce his 13 touchdowns from a year ago.
Similar to Mayfield, we can expect 2024 to be more of the same
from a usage and production standpoint for Evans. He should see
a high number of targets with a deep aDOT that can lead to big
plays and spike weeks. With Mayfield proving to be capable of
supporting this offense and Evans showing no signs of slowing
down, he seems to be a reliable pick in fantasy drafts this season.
Unlike his teammate Mike Evans, Chris Godwin showed significant
signs of regression last season. Godwin was a WR3 in FPts/G, his
worst performance since 2018.
However, we should not expect more of the same with Godwin as
we are with Evans and Mayfield. There is reason to believe that
Godwin can return to be the steady WR2 that he has been for years.
Dave Canales’ offense worked wonders for the majority of
the weapons in Tampa Bay. Godwin was the exception. Throughout
his career, Godwin has been heavily featured as a slot receiver
as 50-60 percent of Godwin’s snaps came in the slot during
his most successful fantasy seasons. Under Canales in 2023, this
number was just 32 percent.
The Buccaneers’ new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has
already indicated that Godwin will be their primary inside receiver.
He even said that it could be in a “Cooper Kupp-like”
role. Coen was the Rams’ WR coach when Kupp had his breakout
year.
With a move back to the slot, Godwin should consistently see
layup targets that bump his catch rate and overall production.
He is currently drafted as the WR36 and seems like a massive value
at that price. A return to WR2 form for Godwin with more slot
routes is a very reasonable expectation.
Jalen McMillan was part of the trio of University of Washington
receivers who were selected in this year’s draft. Despite
being the final player drafted of the trio, McMillan showed the
ability to compete with NFL-caliber talent. An injury-riddled
2023 at UW also played a factor in his lesser draft capital.
McMillan will have to compete with Trey Palmer for the WR3 role
in Tampa Bay. But surpassing Palmer on the depth chart is not
an impossible task. McMillan showed an ability to play outside
and in the slot during his time at Washington. This versatility
should give McMillan an opportunity to make an impact as a rookie.
However, the extent of this impact will likely be on the smaller
side. Even if he can carve out a regular role, he would likely
be the 4th or 5th option on this offense. McMillan is nothing
more than a late-round flier who could provide value if Evans
or Godwin went down with injury.
Cade Otton is one of the more unique cases at tight end. He is
intriguing because he is always on the field, with little competition
for snaps. Otton was second among TEs in total routes run last
season and had a route participation of 100 percent. Unfortunately,
these tend to be empty routes that rarely lead to targets as he
was targeted on just 11.8 percent of his routes last season.
In a quality matchup, Otton is capable of drawing 8-plus targets
in a game but these games only come a few times each season. Otton
only delivers impactful fantasy days when he finds the endzone
which aren’t exactly common and he has six TDs in his two-year
career. Otton provides little upside and should not be a target
on draft boards this season.
