The way fantasy managers address the quarterback position has drastically
changed in recent years. Just a few short years ago, waiting until
Round 10 to grab Ryan Tannehill or Matt Ryan was perfectly reasonable.
There were very few true difference-makers at the position and it
was relatively easy to find reasonable production in the middle
or late rounds.
The landscape could not be more different in 2024. As the NFL
became open to utilizing dual-threat quarterbacks, fantasy managers
were required to adapt their draft strategy. These rushing quarterbacks
completely changed the way the position should be evaluated and
spending higher picks on the position became reasonable. This
makes it harder to find bargains, but we can still find quarterbacks
who are mispriced in fantasy drafts.
Note: ADP based on PPR scoring
Jayden Daniels is the newest member of the “Konami Code”
quarterbacks whose fantasy value is driven by their rushing production.
In his final season at LSU, Daniels rushed for 1,134 yards in
12 games. He also displayed high-end arm talent, regularly connecting
with Brian Thomas Jr. for explosive plays. The duo connected for
17 touchdowns, the most in college football.
But the most attractive part of Daniels’ game revolves
around his contributions as a rusher. Last season he averaged
94.5 rushing yards per game. This is by no means reproducible
at the NFL but if Daniels is able to maintain just half of this
weekly rushing production (47.25 yards per game), he will be on
a 17-game pace of 803 rushing yards. In the past six seasons,
every quarterback who has cleared 700 rushing yards has finished
as a top-ten quarterback.
Daniels had an incredibly high scramble rate at LSU and Washington
OC Kliff Kingsbury has been able to get the most out of dual-threat
quarterbacks. Kingsbury’s offense generated multiple top-five
seasons (FPts/G) for Kyler Murray. This may be too high of a bar
in year 1 for Daniels, but he can easily beat his ADP of QB13.
Trevor Lawrence could not catch a break in 2023. His film is
littered with dropped passes on his way to just 21 passing TDs.
He also dealt with a slew of injuries that undoubtedly kept him
at less than 100 percent down the stretch. He faced injuries to
his ankle, knee, shoulder and head (concussion), which made him
a mainstay on the Jacksonville injury report.
Last off-season, drafters were all over a breakout for Lawrence
and the Jaguars offense but are now punishing him after a tough
year. It doesn’t make sense. Despite the down year, Lawrence
was still the QB13. But drafters are now comfortable taking him
well within the QB2 range, seemingly below his floor.
The Jaguars did lose Calvin Ridley, but they sufficiently addressed
his departure with the signing of Gabe Davis and the addition
of Brian Thomas Jr. in the draft. Lawrence has the weapons around
him to compete with the best offenses in the league. With a higher
touchdown total, Lawrence can push into the QB1 range this season.
Unlike Trevor Lawrence, just about everything broke right for
Tua Tagovailoa last season with one exception. A disproportionate
number of Miami’s touchdowns came on the ground, leading
to 29 touchdown passes for Tagovailoa, but this was just about
the only thing that didn’t go in his favor.
Tua set career highs across the board: pass attempts, passing
yards, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns. He actually
led the league in passing yards last season with 4,632. Even in
a career year, Tagovailoa was the per-game QB16 and the QB10 overall.
Sure, he could see some growth with better touchdown numbers,
but last season seems close to Tagovailoa’s ceiling outcome.
Tagovailoa is also an incredibly unreliable quarterback in redraft
leagues. He only provides meaningful performances in games where
he goes for three-plus passing TDs. Tagovailoa finished as a weekly
QB1 in 35 percent of contests last year (six games). In 13 games
where he threw for fewer than three touchdowns, he finished as
a QB1 just twice.
The reason he struggles to produce in games where he doesn’t
rack up passing touchdowns is obvious. His lack of production
as a rusher. Last season, he ran for just 74 yards and did not
reach the endzone. He is purely a pocket passer and struggled
to enter QB1 territory in a career year. He is easy to pass on
in the middle rounds given his limited upside.
Brock Purdy is another quarterback who is coming off a career
year and offers little as a rusher. Purdy was drawing calls for
MVP after a season where he passed for 4,180 yards and 31 passing
touchdowns. He led the 49ers to the No.1 seed in the NFC and a
Super Bowl appearance.
The regular season and Super Bowl appearance were both impressive.
But the most significant aspect of Purdy’s season was his
other-worldly efficiency. He threw for 8.9 yards per attempt,
the highest single-season mark of all time for any quarterback
with at least 350 attempts. He also became the 13th quarterback
in the last decade to post a touchdown rate of at least 7.0 percent.
This historic season allowed Purdy to finish as the QB6.
Like Tagovailoa, this is likely Purdy’s ceiling outcome.
San Francisco’s low-volume offense will require Purdy to
be incredibly efficient to finish as a QB1. This is certainly
possible again in 2024, but his lack of rushing work (144 yards,
2 touchdowns) means he has nothing to fall back on if he isn’t
hyper-efficient. Even if Purdy produces with limited volume, this
seems to be a small win at best. He is a player with limited upside
who is being drafted a round ahead of one of the biggest upside
plays at quarterback in Jayden Daniels. If you have not addressed
the quarterback position by Round 8, pass on Purdy and look to
grab Daniels.
