Deciding on a plan of attack at the running back position often
determines how the rest of your draft will unfold. Most draft strategies
(Zero RB, Hero RB, etc.) revolve around running backs after all.
But determining how to value each running back can be tricky.
Do you try to pinpoint the players who will be among the league
leaders in touches? Do you look for “talented” running
backs who will be highly efficient? For most drafters, valuing
a blend of both characteristics will be most beneficial. But regardless
of your process in evaluating running backs, every drafter’s
goal should be the same: target the players undervalued by the
market while avoiding those who are overvalued.
Note: ADP based on PPR scoring
Jaylen Warren is beloved by the fantasy community, but it comes
with good reason. He has an incredibly diverse skill set and is
also extremely effective with the ball in his hands. As a rusher,
Warren was arguably the most efficient player in the NFL last
season. He ranked in the top five in nearly every relevant efficiency
metric: yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced
per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and explosive
rush rate.
Warren has pass-catching chops as well. He saw 74 targets in
2023, the 5th most among running backs. His 15.3 percent target
share ranked 6th. As you might expect, Warren was incredibly efficient
with those looks as well. He ranked 9th in yards per route run.
Warren finished as the RB22 last year but a top-20 season is
very realistic in 2024. The Steelers hired Arthur Smith to be
their offensive coordinator, who has been known to operate the
league’s most run-heavy offenses. Quotes coming out of Steelers
training camp indicate that we can expect more of the same, with
the running backs being the offensive focal point. Warren is in
line to see a career-high in touches and has the talent to make
the most of his opportunities. He is set up to pay off at his
current RB3 price tag.
Brian Robinson Jr. is another running back selected in the RB3
range who is a good bet to beat his ADP. Following an RB21 season,
drafters are now nervous about Robinson’s outlook given
Austin Ekeler’s presence in the backfield.
But what sort of threat does Ekeler pose? His primary role in
this offense will likely be through the air, leaving Robinson
as the primary rusher in the backfield. We just saw Robinson deliver
an RB21 season in this exact situation: a split backfield where
he made minimal contributions as a receiver. Last season, Robinson
maintained a 45 percent snap share, handled 49 percent of the
carries, and earned a 7 percent target share en route to 43 targets.
Once again, this usage led to an RB21 finish and Robinson should
see a similar role this year.
Not to mention the fact that Kliff Kingsbury’s offense
boosts Robinson’s outlook. During Kingsbury’s time
in Arizona, the Cardinals consistently ranked at the top of the
league in terms of pace. It’s fairly straightforward but
a high pace means more plays for the offense and more carries
for Robinson. Kingsbury was often able to orchestrate potent rushing
attacks in Arizona. In three of his four years, the Cardinals
ranked top-10 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.
Drafters should be willing to lean into the uncertainty surrounding
Washington’s backfield. Robinson is not in a massively different
situation this year, and you could even argue that it’s
improved with Kingsbury’s presence. He’s an easy buy
as an RB3.
When drafting a running back in the early rounds, you’d
ideally like them to check at least two of these three boxes:
dominates the rushing work, strong usage as a receiver, and goal
line usage. James Cook checks just one of these boxes which makes
him a rather scary pick in Round 3.
The Bills will do just about anything in goal-to-go situations
other than giving James Cook the rock. Cook finished the year
with four goal line carries. Meanwhile, Latavius Murray saw 12,
Damien Harris got three (six games), and Josh Allen had 14. It
doesn’t seem much will change for Cook this year. Allen
is still a lethal goal line weapon and Buffalo added Ray Davis,
a 220-pound bruiser, in the NFL Draft.
Cook is a shifty back who can generate explosive plays, but he
doesn’t see elite usage as a receiver. His 54 targets (19th)
and 9.9 percent target share (25th) were rather pedestrian. They
are not poor, but this usage is far from the upper echelon of
pass-catching running backs. The departures of Gabe Davis and
Stefon Diggs open up the opportunity for Cook to earn more work
as a receiver, but it’s hard to see an outcome where his
receiving role dramatically grows.
Given Cook’s lack of the most valuable touches a running
back can see, it’s hard to be bullish about him finishing
as an RB1 this year. He will require elite efficiency and a handful
of breakaway touchdowns to pay off at cost. There are far better
options at the back of Round 3 this season.
There’s no other way to put it… drafting Nick Chubb
in Round 8 as an RB3 is ludicrous. Given everything surrounding
his road to recovery, Chubb belongs firmly in the double-digit
rounds and RB4 territory.
First, we have Chubb’s timeline for recovery from his knee
injury. The Browns have given no concrete timeline for return,
but medical professionals in the fantasy space have indicated
that a mid-season (Week 6-8) return is the most likely outcome
for Chubb. Obviously, this timeline is subject to change, but
if he does not return until Week 6 or so, it becomes very hard
to justify a Round 8 pick.
Aside from the timeframe, Chubb’s effectiveness when he’s
on the field is up in the air. His injury last season was a multi-ligament
(ACL, MCL, meniscus) tear. Multi-ligament tears typically take
two years to fully recover from and running backs often fail to
return to their baseline production in their first year back.
Javonte Williams was a clear example of this last year. Chubb
is a running back who has relied on high-end efficiency to deliver
fantasy production. Coming off this injury, his ability to be
highly efficient is suspect at best.
All things considered, the risks surrounding Chubb are absolutely
enormous. League-winners and breakouts often emerge from this
range, and taking a stab at a potential star seems to be a far
better bet than hanging onto the corpse of Nick Chubb.
