| The “Big Boards" Version 2
 9/1/09
 
 Predictable consistency. We seek it in life just as we do in fantasy. 
              If your co-worker, boss or significant other is going to be temperamental 
              at work or home, you'd like to know that person is going to have 
              a "down" day every Thursday in the morning before lunch. 
              No one is ever going to operate at 100% efficiency or let the stresses 
              of the world fall off their shoulders like water droplets on a raincoat.
 Much like the aforementioned example, our fantasy studs will 
                have down days. Sometimes, they are for reasons we don't find 
                out until two days, two weeks or two months after. Most of the 
                time, though, I believe the answers for their success or lack 
                thereof can be found by evaluating the quality of their opponent. 
                After all, the opponent's defensive coordinator spends all week 
                (supposedly, in some cases) trying to eliminate the very offensive 
                weapons which make our fantasy teams go. Just like not all players 
                are created equal, schedules are not created equal for every team 
                either. And like it or not, every fantasy owner should want strive 
                to match the best players they can draft against the weakest opponents 
                possible. Not only does this allow for huge games for your fantasy 
                team, but it lessens the risk that your core players will fail 
                to live up to expectations. Speaking of risk, a lot of times - early in a draft - it's just 
                as important to minimize risk as much it is to maximize talent. 
                In other words, it is often beneficial to build your team's foundation 
                with players that have as few questions marks as possible rather 
                than to draft upside, upside and more upside. As I have stated 
                repeatedly throughout the summer, I want consistency. I'm sure many of you wondered at the end of my 
                last Big Board why I would follow it up with another one this 
                week. The main reason for back-to-back Big Boards in consecutive 
                weeks is simple - opinions can change quickly, as can coach's 
                impressions on a player's readiness for the season. For instance, 
                this week's biggest riser - Cadillac 
                Williams - wasn't so much as an afterthought until I watched 
                the Bucs-Dolphins preseason game last week in which HC Raheem 
                Morris told FOX that he not only plans on keeping him around, 
                but also to make him a key part of Tampa Bay's three-headed RBBC 
                (more on that later). As any astute fantasy owner knows, a change 
                like that affects three players' values, not one. It's this kind 
                of announcement that can drive fantasy writers crazy, but one 
                that we must adapt to nonetheless in order to make sure we provide 
                the best insight possible for our readers. I doubt I will be able to cover all the changes in this week's 
                Big Boards, but I will make sure I will touch on as many as I 
                feel are worth getting into more detail about. Some of the changes 
                were made after further thought about who I could trust more while 
                others were made simply based on what coaches had to say about 
                a player's ever-changing role. Still other alterations were made 
                after observing each of the 16 Week Three preseason games. Once again, I want to remind each of my readers about the player’s 
                rankings and subsequent place on the board. I will push a player 
                down my board if I cannot trust him to stay healthy all season. 
                If you take the time to tear down each position I provide below, 
                you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or 
                averages to a tee. Outside of trust issues, I will push a player 
                down my board – despite a higher average or overall point 
                total – if I believe he will simply be more consistent throughout 
                the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous – 
                no, I don't claim to see the future, but history tells us that 
                defenses like Baltimore, Minnesota and Pittsburgh will end more 
                fantasy championship dreams than they help. Note: I used the 
                same color coding system in this article that I used in my previous 
                PSAs breakdowns to designate poor (red), neutral (no color) and 
                advantageous (green) matchups during Weeks 14-16. Here is the scoring 
                system that I used to rank the players:
 PPR Changes
 Top 10: Moss moves ahead of Gore. 
                If ever I was to take a WR in the top five picks of any draft, 
                it would be Moss. He just misses out here, but I have to move 
                him ahead of Gore simply because the Niners' RB has given us just 
                one out of four possible full seasons since joining San Fran in 
                2005. On the other hand, Moss has three full seasons of work to 
                his credit in that same time. Furthermore, consider that Moss 
                has scored 13 or more TDs in five of his 11 seasons in the NFL. 
                Do you want to bet against him doing it again with one of the 
                game's best QBs throwing him the ball in a pass-heavy offense? 
                I don't. This time around, Calvin and Andre 
                Johnson both slip ahead of Chris 
                Johnson. To be quite honest with you, this portion of the 
                draft is subject to change day-to-day. Ultimately, I went with 
                the receiving Johnsons simply because I now believe there are 
                more inclined to be "surer bets" than "Every Coach's Dream". We're 
                not quite at the point of our evolution in fantasy football where 
                elite WRs trump every other position in PPR, but the case can 
                be made now that outside of the top 5-6 RBs, players like Moss, 
                Fitzgerald and both Johnson WRs should come off the board next 
                because even if they don't score in a certain game, it is not 
                out of the realm of possibility they turn in a 10-catch, 150-yard 
                game either. In the end, I just can't seem to shake the feeling 
                that Chris Johnson hit his carry limit last season and we know 
                LenDale 
                White will get the majority of work inside the 5. Therefore, 
                I'm almost obligated to put him behind the top four WRs and RBs 
                like Ronnie 
                Brown and Steven 
                Jackson who each have similar receiving skills AND the coach's 
                blessing to convert at the stripe. Meanwhile, Monday Night's game 
                showed us that Steve 
                Slaton may still be option 1A or 1B at the goal line. Given 
                the injury history of Chris 
                Brown and Arian Foster, I'd like to believe now that Slaton 
                will at least match last season's 10-TD output. 11-20: To the relief of many (I'm 
                sure), I finally got a hint of the confirmation I've been looking 
                for from John Fox this week regarding DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan 
                Stewart, so D-Will visits the top 15. In short, Fox told the AP 
                that Stewart was losing ground to rookie Mike Goodson in the pecking 
                order for carries as the second-year back continues to battle 
                a sore Achilles. Before going all-in on the DeAngelo bandwagon, 
                however, keep in mind that the most lopsided split Fox has issued 
                his top two RBs since 2004 is 63%-37% and that Williams' 273 carries 
                last season were the most for a Panthers RB since Stephen Davis 
                in 2003. Also bear in mind that Carolina faced six of the seven 
                teams (seven total games) who allowed 4.6 YPC or worse last season. 
                There will not be a repeat of the 383 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) 
                and six total TDs he scored against the hapless defenses of the 
                Chiefs, Raiders and Lions in 2008. And the defense has already 
                shown chinks in the armor, meaning he will probably get fewer 
                carries than he did a season ago. D-Will is probably a top-five 
                RB talent in the league and will probably have some huge games 
                this season, but in my estimation, he has a whole host of things 
                not working in his favor. Therefore, he's better off being a RB2 
                in 12-team leagues.  
                  Pierre Thomas: On the slide. 21-50: Pierre 
                Thomas slid a bit due to the semi-emergence of Mike 
                Bell. No, I'm not sure Bell steals more than 50-75 total touches 
                from Bush and Thomas, but it's pretty clear he is going to take 
                some. For an offense that is so good to PPR fantasy owners and 
                the Saints' RBs they own, that is amount that should still allow 
                Thomas to be quite productive, but not ahead of team centerpieces 
                such as Kevin 
                Smith and Ryan Grant. On the other hand, I am quite thrilled with Rice, who I've been 
                able to snag in the fifth round as a RB3 on a number of occasions. 
                OC Cam Cameron seems quite taken with his abilities - as he should 
                be - and eight catches (18 total touches) this weekend vs. Carolina 
                shows me that Baltimore wants to showcase him. I now expect him 
                to log roughly 60% of the touches in the Ravens' backfield and 
                get some of the work at the goal line if he doesn't need a breather 
                at the time, which should make him a solid RB2 option in 12-team 
                leagues. Much like Rice, I am now more convinced than ever that 
                Kevin Smith will transition just fine into OC Scott Linehan's 
                power-based running attack. His hands make him a PPR asset and 
                with only Mo Morris and rookie Aaron Brown in reserve, Smith is 
                one of the best bets for around 320 carries and 350 total touches 
                in fantasy this season. I must admit I have been thoroughly impressed by what I have 
                seen from Rodgers this preseason. Cleveland, Buffalo and Arizona 
                won't exactly top the charts in pass defense this year, but just 
                about any player that goes out for a pass in the Packers' offense 
                anymore is a weapon. I'm still not a fan of late-season matchups 
                vs. Baltimore and Pittsburgh (Weeks 13 and 15, respectively), 
                but his value has shot up so much in my mind that I am now willing 
                to put him in the same tier with Peyton Manning and not think 
                twice about it. This is an explosive offense that maybe only a 
                Wisconsin blizzard can slow down. One of the biggest mistakes novice drafters make is thinking 
                since there are 24 starting spots for RBs in a 12-team league, 
                there must be 24 RBs capable of being a RB1 or RB2. This year, 
                I think I'm drawing that RB2 line with my 21st-ranked back in 
                Lynch (when he returns from suspension). Yes, backs like Benson, 
                Addai, Bush, Parker and Thomas Jones will all have their good 
                days, but each has serious flaws in their fantasy "game". 
                Sheer numbers dictate that at least three owners will be without 
                an able-bodied RB2 and even more will be if those same owners 
                choose to load up at other positions in the first three rounds. 
                (In case you were wondering, I feel Ronnie Brown is the last of 
                the RB1 candidates in PPR.) (As an example, I completed a money league draft Monday night 
                in which one owner spent his first five picks on RBs and two other 
                owners who used their first three picks at the same position. 
                As a result, players such as Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Chris 
                Wells, Larry Johnson and Thomas Jones will be forced to be their 
                team's RB1 or RB2 in a non-PPR league. I'm not a fortune teller, 
                but I'll put some pretty good money on most of those backs not 
                living up to typical RB2 standards.) 51-100: I felt my ranking of Lance 
                Moore was a bit low in the previous Big Board, but felt powerless 
                to move him up as he had yet to play in the preseason and I was 
                naturally a bit concerned that his offseason shoulder surgery 
                may be holding him back a bit. No worries anymore; sure, Brees 
                and Moore picked on a helpless Oakland defense this weekend, but 
                the thing I was most concerned with - his recovery - didn't appear 
                to be a problem. He's a safe WR2 in my mind and is going much 
                later than he should, especially in PPR. Tony Gonzalez said earlier in the offseason he believes the 2009 
                Falcons are the best team he has ever played on, at least on offense 
                anyway. That may be true on a few levels, but the same problems 
                that exist on this team are the same ones that haunted the 2003 
                Chiefs - porous defense. And because Michael Turner is not Priest 
                Holmes and the line is not anchored by Willie Roaf and Will Shields, 
                it will be up to Matt Ryan to make up the difference. After watching 
                him vs. most of San Diego's regulars for a half on Saturday, I'm 
                willing to buy in on him as solid fantasy QB1 option in the sixth 
                round or so. Atlanta will remain a running team, but "Matty 
                Ice" will be called upon on a number of occasions to bail 
                out the defense. Much like his team, Moreno keeps spiraling downward in terms 
                of his fantasy stock. He may or may not be 100% by Week 1 and 
                given the circus that Brandon Marshall is creating for himself, 
                Denver may not have much of a chance to get anything going this 
                season. The schedule was already going to be difficult with a 
                fully-loaded roster of committed and healthy players, but my point 
                projection for Moreno is looking a bit high at the present time. My summer-long infatuation with Shonn Greene has cooled just 
                a bit, although I do like him to still claim a Le'Ron McClain-type 
                role at some point this season. Apparently, when HC Rex Ryan termed 
                his rookie as a "fourth-quarter weapon", he didn't mean 
                anything but "fourth-quarter weapon". A rib injury suffered 
                in Week Two may cost the rookie the rest of the preseason, but 
                even before then, Thomas Jones and Leon Washington were getting 
                all the work with the first-teamers. At least early in the season, 
                expect something like a 50-40-10 split for Jones, Washington and 
                Greene, in that order. Washington may even be the better PPR back, 
                but I moved both veterans up since Greene will like be a slow 
                starter in 2009. Jones' numbers this preseason have been dreadful 
                - to his credit, the competition has been stout - but even with 
                his stellar 2008, he is still going a bit high in my opinion with 
                his 5.12 ADP. Despite keeping himself in incredible shape, he 
                is my candidate to become the 2008 version of Willis McGahee in 
                2009. On the other hand, Washington is highly undervalued since 
                he is going at the end of the ninth round on average and should 
                be viewed in the same kind of light that Ray Rice is this season. Derrick Ward takes one of the biggest hits of the week after 
                HC Raheem Morris announced his plans for a 2-2-1 backfield split. 
                Now, a 2-2-1 is a great way to press a team if the hope is to 
                get the opponent to run time off the shot clock in basketball, 
                but for fantasy football, it puts the fantasy value of Cadillac 
                Williams, Ward and Earnest Graham all in peril. Morris also stated 
                there would be no designated goal-line back, but with each back 
                likely getting no more than four series a game, it becomes an 
                absolute mess. Ward's ability to catch the ball should allow him 
                to be a flex option in PPR, but he is not a RB2 candidate again 
                until one of his two teammates gets hurt. Other notable top 100 players: Chris 
                "Beanie" Wells - He looks like a much different back than 
                the one I remembered at Ohio State. Hightower will remain a factor 
                because he too has stepped up his game, but at this point, I would 
                not blink if Wells was my RB3 or flex in non-PPR or PPR. Jonathan Stewart - At this time of this writing, he has missed 
                14 straight practices. At the pace his Achilles is healing, he 
                may be do fantasy owners little good in September. It may be time 
                to spend a last-round pick on rookie Mike Goodson. Rashard Mendenhall - I think the Steelers want him to emerge, 
                but I don't see any of the Edgerrin James' comparisons Steelers 
                OC Bruce Arians gave his second-year back prior to last season. 
                Until I see a bit more explosion and decisiveness, the Pittsburgh 
                backfield split may go 70-30 in the favor of Willie Parker. 101-175: The stories of this group 
                are misplaced tight ends and rising but aging veteran QBs, which 
                makes for a perfect transition to Favre and Shiancoe. Favre has 
                always loved his tight ends and after I realized I had not appreciated 
                that fact enough, the former Giant made a significant jump up 
                my board. Hasselbeck is another veteran QB who I gave a bit more 
                credit to than I did last week. His offensive line scares me, 
                but as long as he is standing, the trio of Houshmandzadeh, Carlson 
                and Burleson were enough for me to bump him up. Meanwhile, both 
                Orton and Trent Edwards have nosedived in my eyes. The Brandon 
                Marshall saga is getting progressively worse while Buffalo's no-huddle 
                attack is looking a lot like the one that huddled last season. 
                Terrell Owens' absence has hurt the team this preseason, but he 
                can only help so much. Owens appears set to return for Week 1, 
                but then Marshawn Lynch begins to serve the first game of his 
                three-game suspension. Edwards’ owners may need to wait 
                until October to get the player they hoped would surpass average 
                fantasy QB2 production. I could very well have Jamaal Charles too low here as it appears 
                that Larry Johnson will only stay on the field when the offense 
                is "on schedule". Otherwise, it appears the ex-Longhorn 
                is the play. It's early, but this looks a lot like the Edgerrin 
                James-J.J. Arrington setup that new HC Todd Haley oversaw in Arizona 
                last season.
 Non-PPR Changes Top 10: Michael Turner finds his 
                final resting place as the #6 overall back (and #7 overall) as 
                I came to the conclusion that despite my disdain for one-trick 
                RBs, the "Burner" is everything else a fantasy owner 
                wants in a RB1 - he is the team's workhorse who does not see his 
                carries taken from him at the goal line in an offense that will 
                score a lot of points. I still wouldn't want him as my RB1 because 
                I have little reason to believe he won't be an inconsistent RB 
                once again after considering his running schedule gives him very 
                few breaks. Then again, there will be also be those weeks he will 
                really explode as well.  
                  DeAngelo Williams: Tempting. 11-20: I was very tempted to move 
                DeAngelo 
                Williams past Steven 
                Jackson on this week's board. My mind hasn't changed on Jackson's 
                non-PPR inconsistency, so while he should finish higher than ninth 
                overall among RBs, he could very well take his owners on a rollercoaster 
                ride in the process. Williams, on the other hand, may set the 
                world on fire in Weeks 1-13, but I still can't get past that brutal 
                fantasy playoff schedule. I've bumped his 15-game totals up to 
                1,310 total yards and 13 total TDs, numbers that I feel are only 
                attainable if his "Double Trouble" teammate Jonathan 
                Stewart is hampered by injury all season. Pierre 
                Thomas slides even further in non-PPR than he did in PPR due 
                to the recent emergence of Mike 
                Bell. As stated earlier, I don't expect a sizable workload 
                for Bell, but he's going to chip away at Thomas' value ever so 
                slightly, making him a mid-tier RB2 option at best. 21-50: In a number of drafts I 
                have taken part in, Terrell Owens is slipping too far, sometimes 
                in the middle of the fourth round. That is WR2 territory and there 
                aren't any other WR2s available that can post 1,200 yards and 
                12 TDs. Speaking of WR2s, do whatever you have to do to secure 
                at least one of the WRs I have ranked 13-18 (Ochocinco, Gonzalez, 
                Jackson, Royal, Bowe, Houshmandzadeh). Pairing any of those WRs 
                with any of the 12 receivers listed before them should ensure 
                that the top WR slots are locked down all season long. Just like 
                I mentioned in the PPR section regarding RBs and the mistake some 
                drafters make in assuming a certain amount of players to fill 
                RB1 or RB2 slots, the same could be said for WRs. I'm comfortable 
                with the receivers ranked through Berrian, but after him, I get 
                a bit concerned because at least four teams will be stuck with 
                a wideout who will not be suited for a WR1 or WR2 spot in 12-team 
                leagues. 51-100: After some further reflection, 
                Derrick Mason should be poised to come close to matching last 
                season's surprising totals barring injury. I get the sense that 
                OC Cam Cameron wants Joe Flacco to throw just a bit more in 2009 
                - someone will have to pick up those catches besides Ray Rice 
                coming out of the backfield. I think the team may to get others 
                involved more heavily (Kelley Washington, Demetrius Williams, 
                Mark Clayton), but ultimately, Mason is the only dependable target 
                he has on the perimeter. 101-175: The biggest change to 
                this part of the board is to a rookie who has experienced a meteoric 
                rise from sixth-round draft pick this spring to someone who may 
                be worth that same level of pick in fantasy if recent speculation 
                is true - James 
                Davis. There are some rumblings that Jamal 
                Lewis may not even make the final 53-man roster and based 
                on his production in 2008 and rough preseason so far, it's not 
                hard to understand why. Davis would become the obvious beneficiary 
                and would become one of the best candidates to extend the 15-year 
                streak of at least one rookie RB crossing the 1,000-yard threshold. 
                As a result, save yourself a headache on draft day and avoid Lewis. 
                (I would move Lewis down further, but his release is unlikely 
                given the $4M roster bonus he received this spring.) While you're 
                at it, make Davis a target in the 12-13th round area and lock 
                yourself up a potential RB3/flex option. Favre has seen about as much movement as any player on my board 
                over the last week. Over the weekend, I bumped him up from #18 
                to #13 in my QB rankings, only to remind myself that he will turn 
                40 during the season and, with each passing year, he becomes even 
                more susceptible to injury. I think he will be productive and 
                he still has a consecutive-games streak to maintain, but last 
                season's shoulder injury should serve as a reminder that while 
                he may start all 16 games again, the chances he will play most 
                of them healthy is slim. I'll close things out by quickly detailing the inclusion of Peyton 
                Hillis and Mike Bell. At some point, Broncos HC Josh McDaniels 
                is going to realize that Hillis is everything LaMont 
                Jordan is and more. It's not hard to envision a committee 
                approach that features the rookie Moreno and Hillis being the 
                heavy lifters. On the other hand, Bell squeaks onto the Big Board 
                after an impressive preseason. HC Sean Payton hinted last week 
                that Bell may have worked himself into the backfield picture as 
                a result. I don't foresee much more than 5-8 touches/game (if 
                that), but his fantasy potential is about as good as it has been 
                since his rookie year in Denver.
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