As I have stated in a number of different ways over the years, people tend to discount just how important the actual matchup is in any given football game. It has become common knowledge that fantasy owners don't want their rushers facing Pittsburgh, Baltimore or Minnesota in any given week, but I don't buy into the whole "let the chips fall where they may" attitude that happens after those three teams have been considered. I don't proclaim to own a crystal ball (or even know how to use one), so I won't tell anyone that I can guarantee I know who will be the next surprise defensive unit will be or suggest I can rank the 2009 total defense leaders in order, but spending a little bit of time in the lab trying to figure out how player/coach additions or subtractions affect a defense is well worth the time.

Suppose I could tell you why facing Tampa Bay isn't such a bad thing for a fantasy owner QB or WRs in 2009 (a pretty gutsy call in recent years) or why the Eagles may not be quite the defense everyone thinks they will be. Suppose I could provide sound rationale for why each could happen. Any fantasy owner who wants to win their league title would want to know why and if it made sense to them, plan accordingly.

Naturally, when the mention of using the schedule as a means to rate fantasy talent for the upcoming season is mentioned, the eyeroll is soon to follow. Critics would be quick to point out that no one knows what injuries will occur or, worse yet, what teams will be good or not. But that isn't the point here. The idea with my PSA - at this stage of the game - is to judge what defenses SHOULD be good and which ones are deep enough to withstand injuries. Potentially great teams are built on draft day, but fantasy titles aren't. The idea of draft day and the end-game to my PSA is to leave an owner in a good enough position to handle whatever adversity comes his/her way during the season - and it will come - so when the playoffs roll around, it is your team that is loaded with the "cupcake" games. Wouldn't we all agree a game against the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs this season sounds a lot more appealing than one against the Giants or Jets?

Now that I can comfortably step down from my soapbox, the purpose of this week's article is to give some shape or form to just how good or bad I believe a defense will be this season. Granted, I don't anticipate a standing ovation for a piece about defensive coordinators and their philosophies, but understanding how a defense thinks can open the door for owners to surmise what their players can do against it in a given week. Do that exercise 15 times (most fantasy playoffs stop after the 15th regular season game) and you have yourself a nice little projection on how a player may perform. Because consistency is as important as quality in fantasy football, I feel the only true way to measure a player's preseason value is to access how I feel he will do each week in the regular season.

A Quick Tutorial: YPC refers to an opponent’s yards per carry while YPA stands for an opponent’s yards per pass attempt. As a point of reference, the league average for YPC in 2008 was 4.2, while for YPA, it was 6.9. I have found these statistics to be useful in determining the effectiveness of a defense, especially when it comes to projecting how players will perform against that defense. It’s no big secret that a team can be good at stopping the run or pass, but for one reason or another, is still not proficient at stopping an opponent from scoring via the run or pass, be it due to small CBs getting exposed on fade patterns or a defense that is undersized all the way around or for any other number of reasons.

I do my best to account for these “oversights” as I go through projecting a player’s game-by-game stats but, believe me, I understand this is a purely subjective endeavor. With all that behind us now, let’s dive into the defenses. Division-by-division projections are on deck over the next few weeks, so get psyched people!

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills
2008 YPC: 4.3
2008 YPA: 7.0

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.5
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.4

Explanation: The biggest key for this defense entering 2009 is the healthy return of DE Aaron Schobel and, to a lesser extent, CB Ashton Youboty. Without a healthy Schobel, trying to get pressure in DC Perry Fewell's Cover 2 defense became a chore in 2008. As a result, the team managed just 24 sacks, tied for the fourth-worst mark in the league. Very little help arrived via free agency, so the talent upgrades to the pass rush in 2009 will have to come from whatever DE Aaron Maybin and CB/S Jairus Byrd can give the Bills. And unlike 2008, the Bills won't have an easy start to the season, facing high-powered passing offenses like New England, New Orleans and Houston all before their Week 9 bye. The run defense has improved incrementally in each of Fewell's first three seasons, but the only way this defense figures to improve on last season's 22nd place finish vs. the run is by becoming more familiar with the system. Fewell has done a good job at getting the most out of his guys since his arrival, but the schedule for 2009 does not lend itself for much defensive success. It's probably a good thing the offense will be considerably better, because Buffalo's defense is not all that deep or physical and could get exposed by teams such as the Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Falcons, Jags and Titans – all of which are teams that will run the ball relentlessly on the Bills if they cannot jump out to an early lead.

Miami Dolphins
2008 YPC: 4.2
2008 YPA: 7.0

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.3
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.2

Explanation: One of the many reasons Bill Parcells gets so much credit for being a good personnel person is because he understands the easiest way to make the playoffs is by winning your division first. The Dolphins finished in the middle of the pack in terms of YPA allowed in 2008, but with New England possessing a pair of Pro Bowl WRs (and adding Joey Galloway) and Buffalo signing Terrell Owens to go along with Lee Evans, it became paramount that the team add a pair of physical CBs who could match up. So Miami used the first two rounds to select two of the draft's biggest, most athletic CBs in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Their additions were very important for a defense that really performed well in 2008 but doesn't have the privilege this season of rampaging through the AFC and NFC West as it did last season. As a result, DC Paul Pasqualoni, who guided his unit to eighth-place finishes in sacks (40) and turnovers (30) may lead one of the handful of defenses that may actually perform better in reality than they do statistically in 2009. The first three weeks will tell us a lot about this defense as Miami tries to bottle up Atlanta, Indianapolis and San Diego. So while the return of Jason Taylor receives the most attention, this defense will only go about as far as the new defensive backs will let them. Because the team did little to change a defensive front after an average showing against a weak schedule, a small statistical decline against the run is possible considering the opponents they will be facing this time around.

New England Patriots
2008 YPC: 4.1
2008 YPA: 7.3

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.9
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.2

Explanation: Perhaps no team in recent memory sets an offseason goal of improving a position and then goes out and makes that position ridiculously deep. In 2007, Randy Moss and Wes Welker turned the receiver corps from a bunch of no-namers into one of the deepest units in the league. This year, the goal was CBs and once again, mission accomplished. Leigh Bodden was not a good fit in Detroit's "Tampa 2" and had very little talent in front of him, but he is only a year removed from being traded along with a third-round pick for Pro Bowl DT Shaun Rogers. Expect Bodden – who was considered an up-and-comer in Cleveland before the trade - to stick around for a while in Foxborough and play at a Pro Bowl level. The team also nabbed former Redskin Shawn Springs to compete with promising CB Jonathan Wilhite. Finally, New England selected the most technically-sound CB in the draft in Darius Butler. Along with a formidable front seven, this pass defense has the potential to be one of the Patriots' best since HC Bill Belichick joined the team in 2000. The loss of OLB Mike Vrabel hurts the front seven of this defense in more ways than one and Tedy Bruschi is nearing the end of the line, but New England has enough versatile depth that a major dropoff is unlikely to happen. Unlike many 3-4 teams, the Pats have serviceable depth behind their superb front line, meaning Jerod Mayo and Adalius Thomas will have little problem stuffing the run. If there is a weakness on this team, it is at OLB and in the leadership department. Even though Vrabel's sack totals were inconsistent, his presence was important to the defense as was S Rodney Harrison's. Both are gone now, so while the potential for others to step up is very high, a team still has to go through the process of finding the new "voice" in the huddle. Bruschi is no longer a three-down player, so Thomas or Mayo may have to take on that role.

New York Jets
2008 YPC: 3.7
2008 YPA: 7.0

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.5

Explanation: New HC Rex Ryan's first hire was DC Mike Pettine - a man he has a long history with - so it is safe to say that while Ryan will get a lot of the credit or the blame for this defense, Pettine will have a considerable say in the direction of this unit. Both coaches will benefit from the fact that the Jets brought in three former Ravens defenders - one on each level of the defense - something that should help the Jets install all the different pressure packages that Ryan made famous in Baltimore. On the field, things will begin and end with the effectiveness of NT Kris Jenkins, who thrived in his first season with the Jets but has a history of not putting it together year after year from his time in Carolina. At his best, he commands a constant double team that will allow ILBs David Harris and free agent pickup (and former Raven) Bart Scott to put up some huge numbers. Jenkins will be needed even more early on after OLB Calvin Pace was suspended for the first four games of the season, leaving last year's first rounder - Vernon Gholston - to shut up the number of people who have been more than willing to call him a "bust" after just one season in the league.

In the secondary, CB Darrelle Revis has already established himself as one of the best in the league and, along with the trade for Lito Sheppard, New York should have the corners necessary to complement the pressure that Pace (when he returns), Gholston and Bryan Thomas will provide on the outside. Finally, ex-Raven S Jim Leonhard joins Kerry Rhodes to round out this very talented defense that should be equally good against the run and the pass. However, the schedule does New York no favors with Houston, New England and New Orleans all meeting the Jets in the first month of the season and New England, Atlanta and Indianapolis among a number of potentially good offenses awaiting in the second half. Given the complexity of the defense, a slow start is not out of the question but, by the end of the year, many people in the Northeast could be asking "Who has the best defense is New York?”

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens
2008 YPC: 3.6
2008 YPA: 5.9

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.2

Explanation: After graduating its last three defensive coordinators to head coaching jobs elsewhere (Marvin Lewis, Mike Nolan, Rex Ryan), Baltimore has a coach now that is a safe bet not to be "graduating" with them. DC Greg Mattison, who will turn 60 during the season, is entering his 38th season of coaching but only his second in the NFL after running defenses at the college level (Florida, Notre Dame and Michigan among others) for most of his career. Ryan's blueprint has been left behind, but the defense took some massive hits in the offseason. While CB Chris McAlister’s departure was expected, the team had to cringe after watching LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard leave with Ryan to New York. Baltimore did avoid a potential season-long headache by extending the contract of DE/OLB Terrell Suggs, so the pass rush should be as good as ever. Under GM Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens have done a fine job of restocking the shelves over the years, but this year changeover has left the team more exposed than usual as an injury to the front three or either one of the CBs could be potentially devastating. Additionally, Baltimore needs Domonique Foxworth to earn every bit of the $16 M guaranteed he was handed this offseason. While Foxworth showed himself well in Atlanta last season, it wasn’t too long ago that he was just a role player on a poor defense in Denver, which was happy to get any compensation for him after three lackluster seasons there. The run defense may fall off a bit from its incredibly high standards as Mattison gets his feet wet, but expect the pass defense to show more vulnerability than it has in the past - even with Ed Reed doing what he has done for years. Certainly, the Ravens’ back end was losing effectiveness with age, but no matter how Baltimore wants to look at, there will be falloff from a defense that goes from Ryan-McAlister-Samari Rolle to Mattison-Foxworth-Fabian Washington. The Ravens still have plenty left to suffocate an average offense, but expect the Chargers, Patriots and Packers to have a bit more success than most opponents usually do this season.

Cincinnati Bengals
2008 YPC: 3.9
2008 YPA: 6.7

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.3

Explanation: Mark Twain once said "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." I'm not sure if it was a lie or a damn lie, but there was not a whole lot of honesty behind the Bengals' 3.9 YPC last season. Because Cincinnati sported the league's worst offense a season ago, opponents could sometimes go into clock-killing mode midway through the third quarter, thus sabotaging their own potential for a big run or two. But before owners decide to put the Bengals' defense among the league's worst once again, bear in mind that DC Mike Zimmer guided his injured troops to a 12th place finish in total defense, this against an unforgiving schedule in 2008. And it only figures to get better as Cincy used the offseason as well as any team to upgrade its talent on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. S Roy Williams is the first enforcer the team has enjoyed at safety since David Fulcher (and he will be reunited with the DC under which he enjoyed his best seasons in Dallas), second-round selection LB Rey Maualuga gives the defense an identity for the first time in ages and DL additions Tank and Michael Johnson figure to blend in with Antwan Odom and Robert Geathers to provide a much-needed boost to the pass rush that generated a meager 17 sacks a season ago. In short, the talent and depth on this defense is the best it has been since the early 90s.

The schedule provides NFC North and AFC West opponents in 2009, a far cry from the NFC East and AFC South offenses it faced a season ago. Expect a few speed bumps along the way, but Cincinnati could honestly crack the top 10 in total defense this season if it plays up to its potential and takes advantage of its schedule. Since the offense figures to be healthier than it was at any point last season, the defensive averages could actually look worse but the unit as a whole should be significantly better. While the Bengals aren’t likely to be an elite defense quite yet, they also don’t figure to be a team that fantasy owners want to see on the schedule this season either.

Cleveland Browns
2008 YPC: 4.5
2008 YPA: 7.5

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.3
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.2

Explanation: The good news is that the Browns are slowly assembling the talent they need to play the 3-4 defense at a respectable level. The bad news is they aren't there yet. Only NT Shaun Rogers can be considered an elite talent, although DE Corey Williams and LB Kamerion Wimbley possess the ability to share some of that load. But only Rogers showed his considerable wares last season, which contributed to a number of coaches losing their jobs. Enter ex-Raider DC Rob Ryan, who will get to work with a much different cast of characters than a season ago, including four players who played under new HC Eric Mangini in New York. The former Jets figure to slightly improve a defense that didn't stop much of anything in 2008. By all accounts, the schedule gets easier on Cleveland this season, as it faces the AFC East and NFC North as opposed to the AFC South and NFC East - that alone should make the Browns' defense look a bit more respectable in the statistical department. In addition to finding another difference maker up front - the team thinks it has found someone in backup NT Ahtyba Rubin - someone needs to emerge opposite Wimbley at OLB. The Browns think that somebody could be conversion rookie LB David Veikune, who has the pass-rush skills necessary to make opponents pay. The Browns also need bounceback seasons from CB Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald, two players who played much better in 2007 than 2008. In the event they don’t rebound, Cleveland added some proven depth in ex-Cardinal Rod Hood and former Raven Corey Ivy. Since their division figures to be one of the tougher in the NFL this year, the Browns' statistical improvement is likely to be minimal. But the overall schedule should allow Cleveland to build some confidence under Ryan and Mangini heading into 2010.

Pittsburgh Steelers
2008 YPC: 3.3
2008 YPA: 5.4

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.4
Projected 2009 YPA: 5.6

Explanation: Year after year, in the NFL's ever-changing climate, the Steelers stop the run and sometimes even feature two OLBs who can post 10+ sacks. Although last year marked the first time that two defenders went over the 10-sack mark since DC Dick LeBeau returned to coach the defense prior to the 2004 season, Pittsburgh has finished no worse than third against the run in those five seasons. To take that one step further, LeBeau's defenses – since 2004 - have finished fourth or better in total defense (including three first-place finishes) and third or better in points allowed (including three more first-place finishes). Because very little has changed with their defense from last season, there's no reason to believe the results will be much different. Also consider the Steelers replace the NFC East and AFC South teams from their 2008 schedule with the NFC North and AFC West. In short, as good as they were statistically last season, they could be even better in 2009.

But the outlook isn't 100% positive – the defense is getting a bit older. While the problem shouldn't manifest itself this season, Pittsburgh may find itself in the rare position of needing to play a rookie more than it typically does. The Steelers are counting on first-round pick Ziggy Hood to step in and provide some relief for starting defensive ends Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith, who are both in their 30s. ILB James Farrior will turn 35 at the end of the season and since the team possesses little depth at ILB, it can't afford a dropoff or long-term injury at that position either. Perhaps it is nitpicking, but the league is littered with examples of teams that were dominant one year and too old the next. More than likely, though, age will be more of an issue for Pittsburgh in 2010 than 2009.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans
2008 YPC: 4.5
2008 YPA: 7.6

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.3
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.2

Explanation: Former DL coach Frank Bush gets his first opportunity to run an NFL defense and, by all indications, he will be aggressive in doing so. A defensive line already operating with three former first-rounders added two more formidable pass-rushing talents in the offseason with free agent DE Antonio Smith and second-round DE Connor Barwin. Paired with DE Mario Williams, the Texans stand a great chance at improving on their 25 sacks from a season ago and fielding a legitimate pass rush for the first time in franchise history. However, that pass rush will only be noticed if the defensive backs hold up, which is a definite question mark for this team. The safety play in Houston has rarely been stellar in the team's existence and remains its weakest link. The Texans' pass defense, though, will get opportunities to shine as they meet teams that figure to struggle in the passing game like St. Louis, Oakland and San Francisco. As for the run defense, Houston will have to hope the infusion of talent and depth in its front seven will offset the number of teams on its schedule that will be successful running the football. The continued growth of DT Amobi Okoye along with the development of rookie LB Brian Cushing - two players who will be instrumental in helping the defense get off the field on third down - will be key in determining just how much of a jump Houston can make from 23rd ranked run defense from a season ago.

Indianapolis Colts
2008 YPC: 4.2
2008 YPA: 6.7

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.1

Explanation: No established team in recent memory has undergone so much change at the top. The head coach along with all three coordinators (including special teams) are either no longer with the team or in a "consultant" role. One of the those many changes - from Ron Meeks to new DC Larry Coyer - is helping the defense make a much less-publicized transition than the offense is going through. One thing that was clear from the draft, however, is the Colts no longer intend on having such a smallish interior. In selecting USC’s Fili Moala and Michigan’s Terrance Taylor, Indy gained a lot more young strength and size at DT that it had in years. Coyer figures to keep around most of the "Tampa 2" principles that Tony Dungy and Meeks used for years, so the transition should be smoother than it is for most coordinators joining a new team. It should also mean that S Bob Sanders will continue to be the defense's most valuable all-around player. As long as he remains healthy - always a big question mark - and CB Marlin Jackson recovers fully from the knee surgery he underwent during 2008, the Colts stand a great chance of improving their run defense numbers. However, their schedule will test them in that regard early and often - each team in their division will have a formidable running game as will San Francisco, Baltimore, Miami and the New York Jets. Fortunately, Indy's version of the "Tampa 2" has a long history of stifling opponents' passing games. So, once again, if some of the most important components (Sanders, Jackson, Dwight Freeney among others) can stay healthy, the Colts should have one of the more effective defenses in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars
2008 YPC: 4.0
2008 YPA: 8.1

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.2

Explanation: Nothing against new DC Mel Tucker, but it is hard to believe the Jaguars were so taken by the Browns' defense that they decided to hand him the keys to their defense. So it probably goes without saying that HC Jack Del Rio will probably be the man responsible for this unit's fortunes in 2009 after a season in which Jacksonville's defense looked anything but formidable. That could have happened due to a falling out between Del Rio and former DC Gregg Williams (now in New Orleans) because after having watched Williams-coached defenses for a number of years, the Jags showed very little of the blitzing style that has made Williams a highly-coveted coordinator for many years. Very little immediate defensive help came to the team in the offseason, so Tucker and Del Rio will need to hope that improvement will come from better chemistry and knowledge of the system.

The one addition the defense did make that should make a difference is ex-Eagle S Sean Considine, who flashed in Philly and has the coaches in Jacksonville raving so far. Two other players that could make a splash at needed spots on the defense are two third-round picks, DT Terrance Knighton and CB Derek Cox. A solid camp by Knighton would give the Jags a sizable DT duo (along with John Henderson) the team has lacked since trading away Marcus Stroud. Cox could give starting CB Brian Williams a run for his money and perhaps stop the revolving door that has been a trouble spot opposite standout Rashean Mathis for years. Playing four games vs. the NFC West will help their overall numbers, but this defense doesn't appear to be considerably better than it was in 2008. Del Rio's teams have yet to finish outside the top of the half of the league vs. the run, so don't expect much of a falloff in that department. Just out of sheer luck, the additions of Considine and Cox figure to help their dreadful pass defense. It won't be enough to return to this defense to the ranks of the elite, but they won't be near as bad as they were a season ago either.

Tennessee Titans
2008 YPC: 3.7
2008 YPA: 6.0

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.5

Explanation: New DC Chuck Cecil takes over for the Lions' new HC Jim Schwartz, assuming control of the entire defense after serving as the defensive backs coach each of the past two seasons. Under Cecil's leadership, Michael Griffin and Cortland Finnegan have each taken significant strides. First-time coordinators are always a bit unpredictable in terms of how aggressive/conservative they will be with their schemes and how their players will react to them. As a point of reference, Schwartz's first Titans' defense in 2001 placed 25th in both points and yards allowed. The loss of DT Albert Haynesworth will hurt in both the run and pass game, but Tennessee likes the depth it has in the front four. Cecil should have very few concerns about the back seven of his defense, however, as Keith Bullock headlines a strong trio of LBs while Griffin and Finnegan both played at a Pro Bowl level last season, even if only the latter was selected. It's safe to assume Cecil will have some growing pains and Haynesworth's departure figures to knock this defense from the elite, but there is enough talent remaining to ensure the team doesn't bottom out like it did in Schwartz's first season, one with far less talent than the defense Cecil will be working with in 2009.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos
2008 YPC: 5.0
2008 YPA: 7.5

Projected 2009 YPC: 5.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.8

Explanation: New DC Mike Nolan was starting to put together some talent on defense before getting fired in San Francisco, now, he may as well be starting from scratch again in 2009. Free agent S Brian Dawkins was a major coup - even at his advanced age - for a defense that will need his fire and leadership. Unfortunately, the Broncos need more than one offseason and a change at DC to cure their ills on defense. There are some pieces in place - especially at LB - but the defensive line is woefully short on talent and there really is not a single lineman currently on the roster that is a good fit for the 3-4 defense Nolan will be installing. So, even though Dawkins' in-the-box skills are still very good, Denver will be one of the worst run defenses once again this season and it only gets worse when one considers this defense will have to play against the physical running teams of the NFC East and AFC North. Therefore, even if the pass defense benefits from the talent it acquired in the draft as it should (such as Alphonso Smith), it may not matter if the offense can't consistently jump ahead of its opponents each week. In short, there is very little to like for a defense that lacks the talent and experience in this new defense. As a result, owners of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Darren McFadden and either Brian Westbrook or LeSean McCoy should expect stellar numbers from their backs during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-16).

Kansas City Chiefs
2008 YPC: 5.0
2008 YPA: 7.3

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.9
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.5

Explanation: The Chiefs finally committed to the overhaul it needed at the top. The trio of Scott Pioli, Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergast replaced the threesome of Carl Peterson, Herm Edwards and Gunther Cunningham as GM, coach and DC, respectively. Although Peterson had the respect of many across the league, his drafts (outside of 2008) were typically lacking, especially after the first round. Edwards and Cunningham's philosophies didn’t seem to jive all that well, so in short, the Chiefs upgraded everywhere off the field. For the purposes of this piece, however, we'll focus on Pendergast, who quite often did more with less in Arizona than just about any other defensive coordinator. He'll need to do it again with this group, as only first-round DE Tyson Jackson is a suitable fit for the 3-4 defense of defensive linemen on the current roster. The linebackers have talent, but only an aging Mike Vrabel and Derrick Johnson are locks to be with the club past 2009 in their current position. The secondary also has some pieces to work with - but like most of the players in front of them - are not the best fits for the new 3-4 scheme. Regardless, Pendergast will make this defense look decent at times. But make no mistake about it, the Chiefs’ 2009 schedule would be brutal for any team against the run, let alone one trying to figure things out in a scheme it doesn't have the personnel for quite yet. The pass defense may actually appear better statistically at the end of the season than it will be in reality, but it will take a masterful coaching job by Pendergast to improve on last year's pathetic numbers against the run. Kansas City is finally headed in the right direction, but as with most overhaul jobs, this may take another year or two. In the meantime, fantasy owners should rejoice when their player is scheduled to go against KC this season.

Oakland Raiders
2008 YPC: 4.7
2008 YPA: 7.2

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.9
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.9

Explanation: One of the things about the NFL is that teams are never that far away from being much better...or much worse. Along with that line of thinking, Oakland has part of a good defense in place. CB Nnamdi Asomugha is considered the best in the league at his position and DE Derrick Burgess isn't too far removed from back-to-back double digit sack seasons. Former Cowboy Greg Ellis was a nice upgrade opposite Burgess even if his best years are likely behind him. MLB Kirk Morrison could join that group, but until he has some better protection up front, we may never know for sure. CB Chris Johnson took over for DeAngelo Hall midway through last season and the team has high hopes for him, although he will get picked on as long as Asomugha is still in the lineup. So it isn't as if new DC John Marshall doesn't have anything to work with in 2009. But in a league where offenses can pick a defense apart if it has one or two weak links, the Raiders have five or six.

One player who could cure a lot of Oakland’s ills on defense (and allow Al Davis to get the last laugh) would be DT Tommy Kelly, that is, if he busts out and earns the $50+ million contract he signed in February 2008. Considering he is 28 and in his second season after ACL surgery, now is the time for him to start earning his contract. His presence would not only allow Morrison to shine, but would give Ellis and Burgess the opportunity to work one-on-one on the outside, making Asomugha and Johnson all the more effective. But let’s face it, that is most likely the best case scenario. Because of poor safety play, Oakland will struggle against the deep ball and because it lacks elite talent at DT, the Raiders will also have a hard time against the top running games of the league. Considering the fact they face the NFC East and AFC North, the Raiders don't figure to improve much from their 31st place finish against the run in 2008, although Marshall has been known to get the most out of his defense, so although it is unlikely, maybe this defense can surprise a few folks this season.

San Diego Chargers
2008 YPC: 4.0
2008 YPA: 6.8

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.6

Explanation: For a position coach, being asked to accept a promotion to an interim coach or a coordinator has to qualify as a dream and a nightmare coming true. Taking over a greater role means the front office believes in a coach, but some disaster likely had to happen for said coach to be asked to fill the role in the first place. Such was the case for DC Ron Rivera after Ted Cottrell was ousted after 1 1/2 seasons, mostly for his inability to get one of the league's most talented defenses - without OLB Shawne Merriman - to perform at the level it had achieved in Cottrell's first season. While San Diego fell well short of the laurels it set in 2007, Rivera was able to coax enough out of the defense that it held opponents to 24 points or less in the first nine games he was in charge (the Chargers had given up more than 24 points four times before that). Being able to generate that kind of a turnaround midseason bodes well for a defense that will not only be getting Merriman back, but invested a first-round pick in OLB Larry English to further bolster a pass rush that generated 42 sacks in 2007. ILB Kevin Burnett's addition from Dallas further solidifies the LB corps and gives the Bolts a foursome that will be difficult to gameplan for this season.

San Diego did take a small hit (especially vs. the run) up front by losing DE Igor Olshansky to Dallas, but longtime reserve Ryon Bingham should be well-prepared to hold the fort down beside NT Jamal Williams, the one player besides Merriman this defense can ill-afford to lose. As long as that duo stays injury-free, expect San Diego to reclaim its place as one of the league's elite defenses. With the pass rush back to full strength, CBs Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer will look better than they did last year - significant because unlike most defenses, San Diego's defense is not one that can be accurately measured by averages such as YPC and YPA, but more by turnovers and sacks. The schedule-maker did the Chargers no favors as they meet the NFC East and AFC North this season, however, six games against Denver, Kansas City and Oakland should help balance things out.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys
2008 YPC: 4.2
2008 YPA: 6.6

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.1

Explanation: In what figures to be a make-or-break season for HC Wade Phillips, he will either sink or swim on his own abilities as former DC Brian Stewart was made the scapegoat for last season’s struggles and is now conveniently a special assistant in Philadelphia. However, the transition from Stewart to Phillips actually took place midway through last season. The defense underwent some interesting changes in the offseason, releasing longtime DE/OLB Greg Ellis to allow former first-rounder Anthony Spencer to become a starter. Zach Thomas fled for the Chiefs and the team essentially replaced him with another aging two-down linebacker in Keith Brooking. DE Igor Olshansky should be a better run stopper than the man he replaces in Chris Canty. The great thing for Dallas is that all the aforementioned players (Spencer, Brooking and Olshansky) are experienced in Phillips' schemes from the coach's previous stops as a DC in Atlanta and San Diego. The schedule isn't all that much different from a competitive standpoint than a season ago as the Cowboys replace the NFC West with the AFC West and the AFC North with the NFC South.

Even though there has been some significant change in the starting lineup, each starter will have already had the benefit of working with Phillips at some point – meaning the transition period should be minimal. Factor in the fact that Phillips will also be giving the defense his full attention in 2009 and Dallas stands to put together a stronger, more consistent effort this time around. The big key for the 'Boys will be forcing more turnovers. Last season's 20th place finish (22 turnovers) is not acceptable for a Phillips' defense and a similar performance in 2009 will probably lead to his dismissal. Assuming Spencer can fill Ellis' shoes and the combination of CBs Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins can play better than Pacman Jones did last season, Dallas may play well enough on defense to keep Phillips around for another season. In terms of yards allowed, the Cowboys didn't allow more than 278 yards passing – so it isn’t as if they were abysmal last season, even with Jones starting – in any game but their run defense was shredded on five separate occasions, casting a dark cloud over a defense that defended the run well in most of its other games.

New York Giants
2008 YPC: 4.0
2008 YPA: 6.8

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.6

Explanation: It is natural to expect a falloff from a defense when a highly-respected coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo leaves for a head coaching job. One way to get around that - and make his replacement, Bill Sheridan, feel good about life - is by adding enough quality depth to make his defense almost impervious to injury. DTs Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty fortify what was already a strong middle of the line and the return of Osi Umenyiora further enhances the line, leaving the Giants with difference makers almost regardless of which combination they throw out on the field. Sheridan's former responsibility - the linebackers - are probably the weakest link of this defense (in terms of depth), although that only figures to come into play if MLB Antonio Pierce suffers a long-term injury. Much like the line, the secondary pretty much goes two-deep with quality players and benefits from the attacking style Spagnuolo implemented and Sheridan intends to continue. With the presence of the AFC West on the schedule in 2009, New York's final numbers may rival the best defenses in the league and its defense is not one I would particularly enjoy seeing any of my fantasy teams' cornerstones going up against in the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
2008 YPC: 3.5
2008 YPA: 6.1

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.4

Explanation: Perhaps no DC - outside of Dick LeBeau - is more important to his defense than Jim Johnson. Unfortunately, Johnson announced in May that he would be taking an indefinite leave of absence to deal with an advancement of his cancer. As we stand here on the eve of training camp, it is still unknown whether or not he will be able to return to the team. While no assistant could rightfully fill Johnson's considerably large shoes or automatically pick up the knack of making the right call at the most important time like Johnson did on a regular basis, secondary coach Sean McDermott is the next in line and has served under his mentor since both arrived in Philly in 1999, meaning the aggressive blitzing style Eagles fans have come to know and love isn't going anywhere. The same can't be said about another Philadelphia institution, S Brian Dawkins, who left for Denver and will be replaced by Quintin Demps.

The loss of either Johnson OR Dawkins alone is difficult enough, but the loss of two such highly-regarded leaders would be devastating to a team that tends to deal well with the year-to-year changes that take place in the NFL. From a talent standpoint, the Eagles figure to line up much the same way they did in 2008, when they were one of just three defenses (Baltimore and Pittsburgh were the others) that finished in the top five in total defense, run defense, pass defense and points allowed last season. The schedule doesn't change much from a competitive point of view as the Eagles face the NFC South and AFC West teams this year as opposed to the NFC West and AFC North teams from a season ago. But the Eagles, while very young, resilient and very talented, would take a major hit without Johnson on the sidelines. In short, if Johnson doesn’t return, expect a defense that falls from the elite into the middle of the pack. If he makes it back at some point in training camp, a repeat of their stellar YPC and YPA averages from a season ago are likely in order.

Washington Redskins
2008 YPC: 3.8
2008 YPA: 6.3

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.7
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.0

Explanation: There is a lot to like about this unit in 2009, particularly when one considers the Redskins' defense finished sixth in points allowed and fourth in total defense last year. Although much of that "success" could be contributed to the very conservative nature of the offense from a season ago, the two areas that absolutely needed to be addressed on defense were pass rush and turnovers. Enter Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth and first-round pick LB Brian Orakpo, two players who will definitely help in both regards. Their additions complement a front seven that already feature DE Andre Carter – who should see a significant rise in sacks this season – as well as LBs London Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh, the latter of which the Redskins were reportedly thrilled with in the spring. Safeties Chris Horton and LaRon Landry are both solid two-way defenders who round out an impressive collection of talent for DC Greg Blache. Washington also added former Colts P Hunter Smith, who should be a much-needed upgrade over last year's duo (Durant Brooks and Ryan Plackemeier) and provide the Redskins' defense with some more margin for error. There's a lot to like from not only a fantasy defense perspective here and games against weaker offenses like the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams should only make their bottom line look even better.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears
2008 YPC: 3.4
2008 YPA: 6.6

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.8

Explanation: Since DC Bob Babich joined Chicago’s coaching staff in 2004, the Bears have forced 172 takeaways, most in the NFL during that span. The defense also ranked fifth in the NFL against the run in 2008, allowing just 93.5 yards per game. The 3.4 yards per carry allowed by the Bears last season was third lowest in the league. Based on their returning players and incoming talent, there is little reason to expect much of a falloff in either category in 2009. At first glance, their 30th place finish in passing yards allowed appears alarming, but further analysis reveals their YPA allowed was tied for eighth -best in the league, so there isn't all that much to worry about at all because it implies that opponents gave up running the ball. Certainly, an elite defense doesn’t give up many yards either way, but defenses want their opponents to be one-dimensional and given the Bears’ Cover 2 system, Chicago is not likely to see a repeat of the total yardage piled up against it in the air last season. The oddest stat - for such a proficient defense - is how the Bears surrendered 16 rushing TDs, which suggests they were not stout enough up front. To that end, Chicago used a third-rounder to select DL Jarron Gilbert, who led D-I in tackles for a loss last season. The rookie figures to give the Bears someone who can fill in for "three-tech" Tommie Harris and protect the team in case of another injury to their Pro Bowl DT. But their bigger problem is the lack of a plugger-type of defensive tackle to play alongside Harris. Right now, the best they can hope for is a healthy and productive Dusty Dvoracek (who has yet to complete a season and has missed significant time in all three of his NFL seasons) or further development from Marcus Harrison.

As for the pass defense, ex-Rams LB Pisa Tinoisamoa figures to perform at a higher level than the underrated Hunter Hillermeyer. However, S Craig Steltz could get exposed as a pass defender if he gets isolated on a receiver very often, so Chicago will need to monitor that. More than likely, though, he will be put in a position to succeed, meaning he will be asked to punish receivers across the middle and serve as an intimidating presence on the back end of the defense. The schedule gives them a bit of a break, so this team could actually perform at a lower level than it did a season ago and put up similar numbers.

Detroit Lions
2008 YPC: 5.1
2008 YPA: 8.8

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.7
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.9

Explanation: When a team sets a new record for futility, things need to change. Besides remaking the roster, HC Jim Schwartz brought in an old friend to coach the defense in DC Gunther Cunningham, who worked with Schwartz during his first three years as a defensive coordinator in Tennessee. The contrast in styles is interesting as Schwartz is a defensive coach who typically let his front four create the pressure whereas Cunningham has long been known for his aggressive blitzing style. Expect Cunningham to win out for now as the current personnel really lends itself more to a Cunningham-type defense than a Schwartz-led one. How is that? For example, since it could be argued that LB Julian Peterson is the best pass rusher on the team, it wouldn’t make much sense to have him in coverage all game long. And if things work out as expected, it is in the passing game where Detroit’s defense will suffer the most in 2009. The Lions will likely be forced to blitz more often than it would like to, so without a top-notch CB, they could struggle to contain even average passing games. The one thing that will change under a Schwartz-led team will be the number of gaffes committed by the secondary, something that happened with regularity over the past few seasons with former HC Rod Marinelli.

While it could easily be questioned whether or not the Lions improved their CB situation in the offseason, the addition of second-round pick S Louis Delmas may turn out to be a steal. While his hard-hitting style will serve the team well in the run game, Delmas' physical presence should also provide Detroit with an intimidating force in the passing game. However, expect Schwartz and Cunningham to have their most impact in the run game. As mentioned earlier, Delmas will help but it will be a healthy DT Grady Jackson and MLB Larry Foote who should chop a half-yard off the Lions' woeful YPC allowed from a season ago. And they will need it; Detroit figures to get challenged by the running games in its own division as well as teams such as the 49ers, Ravens and Steelers. The Lions will likely need another offseason to get their defense on track with the majority of the league, but opponents will see a much more physical and competitive unit already this season.

Green Bay Packers
2008 YPC: 4.6
2008 YPA: 6.5

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.8

Explanation: Even though one of Green Bay’s best defensive players - Aaron Kampman - made everyone quite aware of his displeasure of the change to the 3-4, the Packers have done a better job than most of the teams that decided to transition from the 4-3 this season. The current plan - besides moving Kampman from his familiar 4-3 DE position to an 3-4 OLB - is to use first-round selection NT B.J. Raji at DE and leave NT Ryan Pickett in the middle. Because Raji is so athletic for a man his size, the move could work and should do wonders for the team's run defense. Another boon to the run defense will be S Atari Bigby, who new DC Dom Capers wants to use in a manner similar to that of the Steelers' Troy Polamalu. Bigby, who is playing for a contract this season, was hampered almost all of 2008 by a nagging ankle injury that eventually required surgery. Capers has been around long enough to know not to force that kind of role onto a player unless he can handle it, so expect big things from Bigby this season. Combine a healthy Bigby with a solid LB corps as well as a couple of run-pluggers up front and it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect a much better performance vs. the run in 2009.

After being asked to play press coverage almost exclusively for the last several years, it will be interesting how starting CBs Charles Woodson and Al Harris will react to playing more zone. Both figure to have trouble initially, but Harris has struggled in his career when he's been asked to do anything but play press, so opposing offenses may pick on him more than we have seen in years. As luck would have it, though, most of the teams on their schedule this season are running teams so the timing of this defensive transition is fortunate. Because the adjustment period for a dramatic scheme change on defense rarely goes smoothly, Green Bay will struggle from time to time against the run. But Capers is one of the best at his job in the league and considering the Packers have the correct personnel already in place, dramatic improvement shouldn’t be too far away.

Minnesota Vikings
2008 YPC: 3.3
2008 YPA: 7.1

Projected 2009 YPC: 3.8
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.6

Explanation: (For the purposes of this article, I will assume that the NFL will end up getting its way in suspending Kevin and Pat Williams.) It's no secret the "Williams Wall" holds the key to the Vikings' defense and is instrumental in their ability to stop the run. No team can have both of their starting DTs miss substantial time without paying for it, but Minnesota is woefully thin behind the Williams Wall. The Vikes do catch a break by facing Cleveland and Detroit right out of the gate, so the timing of the Williams’ suspensions could be worse. The linemen's extended absence will have a fairly dramatic affect on the team's final rushing defense numbers, but the Vikings are sufficiently talented to make sure none of the first four opponents they face will feature the run exclusively.

The main concern - as it has been for some time - is if this will be just another year in which teams cannot run against Minnesota but can throw it effectively? Because only rookie Asher Allen and ex-Bronco Karl Paymah were added to the back end of the defense while veteran S Darren Sharper was allowed to leave, the answer is probably an unfortunate "yes". Mind you, the days of opponents having their way with the Vikings' pass defense are over so long as their pass rush continues to maintain their current level. But this defense will not be able to match the elite defenses in this league unless FS Madieu Williams can stay healthy all season long and SS Tyrell Johnson transforms into the center-field intimidator that he is capable of becoming. Fortunately, only Green Bay (twice), Arizona and maybe Cincinnati stand out as teams that will be able to take advantage of the Vikings in the passing game. Furthermore, the Vikings get to play three teams in the NFC West that will struggle to mount much of an air threat, so we may not see Minnesota exposed for its shortcomings vs. the pass until the playoffs.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons
2008 YPC: 4.9
2008 YPA: 6.9

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.6
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.1

Explanation: Lost in the unexpected emergence of the Falcons last season was a defense that defied logic and feasted on a last-place schedule. Quite honestly, if the NFL hadn’t experienced a rash of poor rush defense, Atlanta would have been talked about in the same breath as the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. Since 2000, only five defenses allowed more than the 4.9 YPC the 2008 Falcons did and just seven others tied that mark. The reason those facts didn't receive more publicity was because four of those aforementioned 12 defenses joined Atlanta in that club last season alone. In the six games where they allowed 150+ rushing yards, the Falcons went 3-3 (suffice it to say most teams don’t fare that well). Finally, Atlanta tied with Washington for 29th in the league in forcing turnovers (18). In a league that typically rewards teams that can stop the run and force turnovers, the Falcons did neither all that well. It may have been with those numbers in mind Atlanta was willing to let some many of its regular defenders leave, including four of its five leading tacklers from a season ago.

Even though the team made numerous upgrades in the offseason (first-round DT Peria Jerry, second-round S William Moore, free agent SLB Mike Peterson to name a few), this defense will probably once again live and die on the health of DE John Abraham - who incidentally recorded 11 of his 16.5 sacks in 2008 vs. Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland and a downtrodden Tampa Bay team late in the season. Despite a pass defense that played better than the sum of its parts, the new additions on defense will need to gel quickly (as Atlanta plays six games against teams that finished in the top nine in rushing yards) if the Falcons hope to post consecutive winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

Carolina Panthers
2008 YPC: 4.4
2008 YPA: 6.5

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.4
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.3

Explanation: The Panthers' defense is one of the harder to predict for the upcoming season. Was new DC Ron Meeks brought in to implement the "Tampa 2" defense he ran so well in Indianapolis from 2002-08? Or will HC John Fox return to his defensive roots and call the signals? The good money is on the former for a couple of reasons: 1) in Meeks' time with the Colts, his defenses finished seventh or better in points allowed five times and 2) the selection of second-round pick DE Everette Brown. Brown's build and game is similar to the Colts’ Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney and, considering what it took to acquire him, the ex-Seminole will be seeing time sooner than later.

As for the unit Meeks will be overseeing, the Panthers' defense figures to be tested week in and week out after facing a handful of poor offenses in 2008. Meeks' defenses require the CBs to be sure tacklers and the Panthers have the personnel already on hand (especially Richard Marshall), so they should be better at stopping the run than they were last season. The front four should get a fairly consistent pass rush and the linebackers are nimble enough to get back into coverage, so as a whole, Carolina's defense should be better than last season. As with any "Tampa 2" defense, the key will be how well the middle of the defense can stand up to the run, so power running teams may have some success against them. That said, Meeks' history with Indy suggests that his defense will find a way to keep opponents out of the end zone. Expect a decent amount of turnovers and a better finish in just about every meaningful category (for the purposes of this conversation: YPC, YPA, points allowed) in 2009.

New Orleans Saints
2008 YPC: 4.2
2008 YPA: 7.0

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.1
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.7

Explanation: The Saints are finally getting it right on defense. Even after a one-and-done job at Jacksonville, the hiring of DC Gregg Williams represents a major coup for a defense that hasn't finished in the top 10 in points or yards allowed since 2000. If there was truly a power struggle over the Jags' defense as has been speculated, one down year shouldn't take away from Williams’ otherwise stellar resume. While there are still some weak links in New Orleans, Williams gets an opportunity to take over a defense on its way up in the talent department. For the first time in years, New Orleans should have legitimate starting CBs, with rookie Malcolm Jenkins, Tracy Porter and Randall Gay fighting for two spots. Ideally, Jenkins has a Darrelle Revis-type learning curve and can become the physical, playmaking CB that will stick to the opponent's top WR week and week out. Before landing on IR with a dislocated wrist, Porter looked to be on the fast track of becoming the team’s top corner. Gay, if relegated to a CB3 role this season, would qualify as one of the better nickel backs in the league. The safeties are also coming together as free agent Darren Sharper joins Roman Harper and converted CB Usama Young in what should be a ball-hawking secondary.

The quality of the back end of the defense becomes all the more important because: 1) Williams loves to blitz and 2) DEs Charles Grant and Will Smith figure to be suspended for the first four games of the season. But the key - especially against the Saints' very difficult schedule this season - will be to contain the run. New Orleans' offense figures to help its defense out in that regard because it will put some of its opponents in an early hole, but the Saints still lack the bulk up front to be a consistent run-stopping force. Williams' blitzes will help in that area, though, so expect a better-than-expected showing from the entire defense in 2009.

Tampa Bay Bucs
2008 YPC: 4.3
2008 YPA: 6.7

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.2
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.4

Explanation: With all the new things that Raheem Morris figures to experience in his first head coaching gig, it was important that he be able to turn his offense and defense over to some experienced coordinators. The offense got a keeper in OC Jeff Jagodzinski and the defense will have the benefit of playing for DC Jim Bates, who is entering his 17th season as a NFL coach and looking to erase the memories of his last such job that sullied an otherwise solid resume. Just about everywhere Bates has been, his defenses have been able to stop the run and rank amongst the best in the league in total defense; he has guided defenses that have ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in overall yards allowed during six of his eight years leading a defense. But the 2007 season in Denver cost a lot of people their jobs and Bates was no exception. So, after a season away, he will be looking to rid himself of that blemish. Bates has long preferred bigger linemen (as evidence with the Broncos’ 2009 draft picks), so the undersized players that played on Monte Kiffin's front four are already gone, being weeded out or bulking up. Chris Hovan and Ryan Sims figure to start, but it wouldn't be a total surprise if third-rounder Roy Miller was seeing as much time as the two veterans by the end of the year.

Bates inherits a pretty decent defensive backfield, although CB Ronde Barber is not nearly as good of a fit in the new man-to-man, bump-and-run scheme as he was in the "Tampa 2". Because of that, expect opponents to now attack Barber as opposed to staying away from him. On the other hand, the switch should be great for CB Aqib Talib - Morris has gone so far to suggest that Talib could lead the NFL in INTs. The scheme change should also free up SS Sabby Piscitelli and FS Tanard Jackson, two very athletic young players who will be allowed to show off their ball-hawking abilities much more than they were in Kiffin’s defense. The question marks for this unit - and the thing that will stop it from being a good run-stopping team in 2009 - are the LBs after MLB Barrett Ruud. Jermaine Phillips is moving up from safety while there is a three-way competition at the other outside spot. Phillips should excel at blitzing, which Bates will do more than Kiffin, but blitzing will hardly be a cure-all for the Bucs. Combine that with the presence of some top offenses in their division - a slate that includes the NFC East and AFC East - and there is enough reason to believe Tampa Bay will not fare well on defense in its first season under Bates.

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals
2008 YPC: 4.0
2008 YPA: 7.2

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.4
Projected 2009 YPA: 6.7

Explanation: The OC (Todd Haley) finds a head coaching job, the DC (Clancy Pendergast) gets canned and ends up following him to the Chiefs. Even in an ever-changing league like the NFL, that much change at the top rarely ever ends well. New DC Bill Davis enters his second stint as a team's defensive coordinator after a largely unsuccessful two-year trial in San Francisco from 2005-06 and will oversee a full-time conversion to the 3-4 after toying with it off and on for the last few years. While the defensive backfield should be as strong as it has been in franchise history, the front seven lacks ideal personnel for their new defense and may pay for it vs. the run. (Unfortunately, they face four of the top seven rushing teams from last season and most of RBs going in the first round and a half this year in fantasy drafts.) Darnell Dockett and Karlos Dansby are two players that can fit in any kind of defense, but to make a 3-4 defense really go, a team needs a plugger at NT. Bryan Robinson is getting up there in age (35) and is really more suited for a part-time role, Gabe Watson can't seem to get his knee right and Alan Branch's career has gone nowhere up to this point. If Davis knows what is good for his job security, S Adrian Wilson will be heavily involved in the box as he always is, so the Arizona run defense shouldn't fall off too much from last season's 11th place finish in yards allowed per rush.

San Francisco 49ers
2008 YPC: 3.8
2008 YPA: 6.7

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.0
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.0

Explanation: As quite often happens, a head coach will receive full credit for a unit that a coordinator either ran himself or worked hand-in-hand with the coach. While no one should take anything away from the changes that HC Mike Singletary has already imposed on the Niners, DC Greg Manusky deserves at least a bit of the credit for the midseason turnaround San Francisco made in 2008. Over the final seven games of the season, the defense ranked seventh in the NFL in points allowed (17.4 ppg). Additionally, the Niners ranked third in passing yards allowed (177.4 ypg) over the final five games of the year.

For much of Manusky's two years with the Niners, his defenses have been criticized for being "soft" and, while that may be true to a certain degree, it quite often goes unnoticed that defenses look a lot better when the offense complements it. (In other words, when Singletary took over at midseason and asked OC Mike Martz to pound the ball, the defense went from being "soft" and "passive" to being "efficient". Sometimes, fans feel with a LB such as Patrick Willis on the roster, the Niners' defense should emulate the Ravens' defense and blitz every down.) The truth of the matter is that while the Niners are slowly building toward a solid defense, the front three is below average and free agent pickup CB Dre' Bly was signed out of desperation after Walt Harris was lost for the season. Unfair as it might sound, the 49ers' pass defense will live and die on how well Bly plays since opponents without elite WRs won't be all that excited to throw in CB Nate Clements' direction. Because the LB corps is the strongest unit on the defense by far, expect San Francisco to be a bit better than the league average vs. the run in 2009. The Niners get a slight break in the schedule in 2009 vs. the run though as AFC South and NFC North teams replaces the hard-nosed NFC East and AFC East divisions.

Seattle Seahawks
2008 YPC: 4.2
2008 YPA: 7.7

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.2
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.0

Explanation: At first glance, Seattle would seem to be a team that will turn its defense over to its new HC, Jim Mora Jr, a defensive coach by trade. However, seeing how taken the Seahawks are with new DC Gus Bradley, he will probably get the opportunity to lead the unit. Judging by his Tampa Bay and Monte Kiffin roots, it wouldn't come as a big surprise if Seattle adopts a great deal of the "Tampa 2" approach. The LB corps figures to once again be the strength of this team as the trio of Leroy Hill, Lofa Tatupu and rookie Aaron Curry is as solid as it gets and would be a good fit for such a scheme, particularly Curry. Given the rave reviews Curry generated in the spring, expect little to no falloff from the replacement of Julian Peterson, who was traded to Detroit for DT Cory Redding. Perhaps it was Redding’s ability to rush the passer from the inside that prompted the trade; regardless, he should be a good fit in a Cover 2 scheme. Since Colin Cole is really the only the player with the size to be a run-plugger on defense (and reserve Brandon Mebane to a lesser extent), the run defense may struggle although the run-heavy teams of the AFC North and NFC East are not on the schedule this year as they were in 2008.

Where the defense should improve is against the pass. DEs Darryl Tapp and Lawrence Jackson were impressive in camp and will compete for the right to line up opposite Patrick Kerney in what is a nice rotation of capable pass rushers. Curry will blitz as well, thereby helping CB Marcus Trufant rebound from a down season. Seattle also brought back Ken Lucas to compete with Josh Wilson, leaving the team with three more players with substantial starting experience there as well. The safeties - Brian Russell and Deon Grant - are upgradeable, but at the same time, that position tends to rise and fall based on how well the players in front of them perform. Power-running teams could give this team some problems as could offenses with a top-notch deep passing game, but all in all, Bradley and Mora should get this unit to perform at a higher level than it did in 2008.

St. Louis Rams
2008 YPC: 4.9
2008 YPA: 8.3

Projected 2009 YPC: 4.6
Projected 2009 YPA: 7.6

Explanation: While Ken Flajole will have the title of defensive coordinator, it's a pretty safe bet he'll be giving way to HC Steve Spagnuolo on Sundays, at least for this season. And that's a good thing, because not only Flajole is taking on his first pro DC job, but also because the Rams' defense was just a bit better than the Lions' last year. St. Louis' YPC and YPA allowed were both in the bottom five of the league, so a complete overhaul was in order. Spagnuolo quickly built his reputation on the Jim Johnson-type of aggressive, blitzing defense in his short time with the Giants, something that will take another year or two to fully implement in St. Louis.

With that said, the Rams have some significant pieces in place. CB Ron Bartell is a big corner who was locked up to a long-term contract in the offseason while franchise player S O.J. Atogwe is an intimidating presence in the middle of the field. S James Butler followed his old DC from the Giants and is another key piece to the puzzle. Second-round selection MLB James Laurinaitis comes with a college track record that takes a back seat to no one while OLB Will Witherspoon moves out from the middle back to his old position on the weak side. Finally, DE Chris Long and DTs Adam Carriker and Clifton Ryan are foundation fixtures that Spagnuolo will build his d-line rotation around. Even with DE Leonard Little on the downside of his career, "Spags" can't help but generate better results all around. But as stated earlier, this defense is at least a year away and the schedule offers few breaks. When the Rams aren't facing the power running teams of Minnesota, Jacksonville and Tennessee this season, they are taking on Green Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Houston and Arizona (twice). The defense won't be epically bad again, but it will struggle.