In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly is much like trying to blitz Peyton Manning – dangerous and painful. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight. Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

Every year around this time, we can begin to identify some teams that are losing steam or have just lost all interest in remaining a competitive team. One such team is the Arizona Cardinals, who – for my money – has been the worst team in football for most of the season. The loss in Week 13 was the Cardinals’ seventh double-digit setback of the season (and fourth straight such loss), but it comes as little surprise when you consider they have lost a possible Hall of Fame QB (Kurt Warner), their physical tone-setter on offense (Anquan Boldin) and defense (Karlos Dansby) along with their best defensive playmaker in the secondary (Antrel Rolle) this offseason. Another team that was exposed early on was the Carolina Panthers, who lost too much up front in free agency (Julius Peppers) and preseason (Thomas Davis) to be all that competitive from the start. For what it is worth, I actually expected the Panthers to be much worse than they are (I’m looking past their record obviously), so I credit HC John Fox somewhat for getting a lot out of an inferior team.

On the other hand, I’ll be the first to admit I did not foresee the collapse of the Tennessee Titans coming. Most of the time, I think it is very short-sighted to attach a win-loss record on a quarterback (and not on any other player), but in this case, I think it is relevant and significant. In 47 starts since joining Tennessee in 2006, Vince Young is 30-17. On the other hand, the other QBs that have started for the Titans in that time - Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith – are a combined 3-12. Certainly, there is more to the collapse of the Titans than just Young’s absence – the offense has declined as a whole since the team announced OC Mike Heimerdinger would start undergoing cancer treatment – but fantasy owners need to be aware of just how much impact a mobile QB can have on the offense in general.

Since the end of last season, every opponent’s goal has been to stop Chris Johnson. Teams are more successful now because every defender can fly to the ball without worrying about Collins or Smith picking up the first down. With Young under center, linebackers not only had to delay pursuing Johnson, they also had to respect the play-action fake because of Young’s ability to run and his improving accuracy as a passer. (We’ve seen the same thing happen in Philly with Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy.) On a related note, it is worth mentioning that the same Tennessee defense which had forced at least one turnover in every game through Week 11 has not forced one in either of the last two weeks. Let this also be a lesson for defensive enthusiasts – offensive desperation, often that created when playing from behind, causes as many turnovers in the NFL as poor decision making. In the Titans’ case, their offense has committed twice as many turnovers over the last four weeks as they did in the six preceding games. In turn, Houston and Jacksonville (their last two opponents) haven’t needed to abandon the running game because Tennessee managed just six points combined over those two contests. In short, when teams with talented RBs only pass when they want to, the likelihood of a poor throw goes down significantly. When the takeaways dry up, so do the number of “short fields” that an offense typically converts into touchdowns.

The beauty of football is the marriage between offense and defense – as one struggles, so the other tends to struggle, just as they often strive together. A great offense tends to make the opponent one-dimensional late in games, which leads to pass rushers teeing off against linemen who know they don’t have the threat of the run to help them anymore. Naturally, a more focused pass rush typically leads a QB to make a faster decision, which quite often means a worse decision. Similarly, a great defense allows a conservative offense to remain that way in large part because the team rarely ever needs to stray from its gameplan. The reason I offer this Football 101 lesson today is to remind everyone that, like it or not, a key offensive/defensive player succumbing to injury is quite likely to affect the team on both sides of the ball. Despite a highly favorable schedule for fantasy success and a QB in Collins who should be a great fit with Nate Washington and Randy Moss, the loss of Young has done a great deal to make most of the Titans’ other fantasy players – including their team defense – a relative non-factor in fantasy.

Before I take my weekly look at workload and targets, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the season-ending hip injury Bucs CB Aqib Talib suffered this past weekend. While no surgery will be necessary, his loss may hurt those owners who were looking to Tampa Bay as a defense throughout the fantasy playoffs. E.J. Biggers cannot reasonably be expected to seamlessly replace one of the few cornerbacks in the league that is sometimes used in a “shadow” role. Biggers held up well against Roddy White last week, but will he do the same against Santana Moss and Calvin Johnson over the next two weeks?

While there is certainly an opportunity for the numbers to get better as we close the fantasy season (Colts and Texans the next two weeks), fantasy owners now must make a decision with the best player on their team at the worst possible time of the season. Have we reached the point where CJ could be benched in fantasy? I would say no – barring the presence of an amazing pair of RBs on your roster – but Johnson hasn’t eclipsed 20 points in PPR leagues since Week 6 and has been held out of the end zone in three straight contests. I would expect a heavy workload for Johnson in Week 14 at home vs. the Colts, but for the first time since he joined the NFL, there is some doubt about Johnson in fantasy. Need proof? Johnson has averaged 15 fantasy points/game in PPR leagues in the nine games Young did not start since the beginning of 2009. (Take away his 55.4 point total from Week 2 of the 2009 season against Houston and that average drops to 9.95.) In the 19 games VY was the starter, CJ averaged 23.65 points.

Charles: Record-breaking back.

After becoming the first RB in NFL history to eclipse 1,100 rushing yards on less than 200 carries in 2009, Jamaal Charles has done it again in 2010. Believe it or not, this year he was even more impressive. In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), only Mercury Morris (6.4) and Gayle Sayers (6.2) have surpassed or matched Charles’ current 6.2 YPC at the running back position. Even more impressive, neither Morris nor Sayers recorded more than 149 carries in the year they hit those marks; Charles is at 182 and counting. While I cannot forgive HC Todd Haley for not using his big-play RB more often early in the season, it is understandable why he doesn’t want to overexpose the slightly-built 23-year-old. Whether or not Haley will ever choose to make him the feature back is a debate for another day, but at least he is getting more work than Thomas Jones now (216 to 199), which wasn’t the case early on in the season. While fantasy owners undoubtedly would like more than four TDs from him, he has certainly lived up to the top 10 RB ranking (and #16 overall) that I placed on him before the season.

After one of the worst ankle injuries in the history of man (apparently), Pierre Thomas is due back in Week 14. While it would be easy to suggest Thomas’ slow healing was due to being unhappy with his contract or an injury-prone player living up to his label, there are just too many unknowns at this point as to why he hasn’t played since Week 3. First, there were reports of a really bad sprain, then rumors of a high-ankle sprain and finally some thought he may have suffered a torn tendon. The truth is if the Saints’ doctors ever did diagnose the actual injury, New Orleans isn’t telling anyone yet. In the meantime, Chris Ivory has registered consecutive two-score games. As a result, HC Sean Payton is sounding like a coach who doesn’t plan on lightening Ivory’s workload anytime soon.

Speaking of returns from long injury layoffs, Ryan Torain is set to return to practice following a five-week layoff. As I discussed in this space last week, it’s bad business to trust a running back from a Mike Shanahan backfield. With that said, Shanny has long been a fan of Torain and clearly does not trust Keiland Williams or James Davis yet. Given his injury history and long layoff, Torain probably needs to remain on the bench of his fantasy owners for at least one week despite a plus-matchup vs. Tampa Bay, even if he gets the start. Perhaps a decent showing against the Bucs may be enough to recommend him to desperate owners in Weeks 15-16 when the Redskins visit the Cowboys and Jaguars, although I would have to be in dire straits to use him as anything more than a flex play the rest of the way.

James Starks took up a roster spot in most of my money leagues for a significant portion of the season and, in Week 13, we got a small taste why. Green Bay is already discussing a three-way split of the backfield touches (with Brandon Jackson and Dimitri Nance to get mixed in), but it speaks volumes that Starks matched Jackson’s season high in carries in his debut. The 24-year-old is a poor bet to stay healthy given his history and upright running style, but for as long as he can remain on the field, he’s a pretty good bet to push Jackson back into a third-down role before long. Packers RB coach Edgar Bennett even went so far as to say that Starks is “an every-down back” and has “that type of talent where he can stay on the field in every situation” following the Packers’ win over the Niners. While his usage in the passing game doesn’t figure to skyrocket anytime soon, Starks is set up for a LeGarrette Blount-like explosion in his role. The fantasy schedule for the rest of the way isn’t the easiest (at Lions, at Patriots, vs. Giants), but the opponent in Week 13 (the Niners) wasn’t the greatest matchup for Green Bay’s running game either. I suspect another 15-20 carry performance this week will push John Kuhn and Nance out of the picture for good, leaving Jackson in the same third-down back role he had when Ryan Grant was still healthy.

One week after not knowing what to do with Malcom Floyd, it was nice to see him make it through a game with 11 targets and without further aggravation to his hamstring. With Vincent Jackson likely out at least one more week, he may be the focus of the passing game again since Antonio Gates continues to play through a great deal of pain. While the downside is that Floyd may draw the emerging CB Brandon Flowers in coverage for most of the game, the upside is that Philip Rivers has never been one to ignore receivers just to avoid throwing in the direction of a top cornerback. Despite last week’s setback against the Raiders, the Chargers will enter Week 14 with a do-or-die mentality as they know a loss will likely cost them any shot at a playoff berth. In short, expect a heavy dose of the passing game as San Diego attempts to jump out to an early in order to force Brodie Croyle to win the game. If I’m right about Jackson missing the game as well as Gates and Darren Sproles being limited (the latter of which is a dicey proposition at this point), then Floyd and Seyi Ajirotutu will need to be needed to contribute in a big way.

Even though I digest the numbers every week, I must admit that I was a bit surprised this week when I recognized just how wide the gap between Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson is in overall targets. (Maclin has a 92-68 advantage.) But I feel the 55-46 advantage Maclin holds over Jackson when Michael Vick starts and finishes a game is also quite telling; the perception in fantasy circles is that Jackson is Vick’s favorite target. Since Vick’s return from his rib injury, Maclin has matched or exceeded Jackson in targets in every game. Obviously, this news does not make Jackson a candidate for the bench in the fantasy playoffs, but it does lend a bit of credence to the reports that teammates are getting fed up with the receiver’s on- and off-field antics, such as his concerns about his physical well-being by not running all the routes over the middle of the field. Given his elite acceleration and slight build, it’s hard to blame him for his stance when he can dominate a game down the field, but it is becoming less of a mystery as to why he is reportedly unhappy – he sees his numbers declining as he is angling for a better contract and doesn’t understand why it is happening. The simple answer is that Maclin, Jason Avant and LeSean McCoy are all willing to do what Jackson is not and, as a result, the first three players are all on their way to posting career-best totals in the passing game and Jackson is not.

For a short time this season, I regretted my unwillingness to pursue the Seahawks’ version of Mike Williams. But his recent injury woes only highlight the most recent example of trusting a player with little to no track record of success in the NFL as the fantasy playoffs approach. Without doubt, there are a countless number of exceptions to this “rule”, but I find it hard at this point of the season to trust the Brandon Lloyds and Williams of the fantasy world because part of the reason they are in the situation they are in now is because the teams they have played for – past and present – are highly flawed. Lloyd is a bit easier to trust because he has performed at such a high level for the entire season, but when the coach is let go, do his priorities of his replacement line up with your best interests as a fantasy owner? While Williams’ coach is safe, can a player that has no track record of making it through an entire season not be expected to hit the “rookie wall”, even if he isn’t one? There appears to be much doubt if Williams can go this week, but after departing Week 13 due to injury as quickly as he did, the Seahawks may choose to do the right thing and rest him until Week 16 or 17. His fantasy owners should do the same, unless we get some glowing reports on his recovery between now and Week 15. Even if he can go this week, there is no way I could recommend starting him.

For example, Davis had scored 5.2 fantasy points or less in three of his last four games prior to Week 13 and Gates was a game-time decision in the late wave of games on Sunday. The latter will be an unpredictable start for the remainder of the season, especially after telling the San Diego Union-Tribune that he “can’t keep doing this” in regards to the severe pain he is playing with as a result of his numerous injuries, especially his torn plantar fascia. With that said, he sounded more optimistic on Wednesday, telling the Union-Tribune that he will play in Week 14 in large part due to importance of the upcoming game to the Chargers’ season.

As much as I would like to break down this position as I usually do, I cannot remember a point in any season since I’ve been playing fantasy football in which I have been less enthused about an entire position in fantasy. Of the 16 tight ends listed in the chart above, I see only eight that I would be moderately happy to start in PPR leagues for the remainder of the season. (Chris Cooley, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Ben Watson, Vernon Davis, Marcedes Lewis and Jacob Tamme, in case you were wondering.) If you favor non-PPR formats, that number drops to six (eliminate Gonzalez and Watson). Injuries have forced us to say goodbye to the likes of Dallas Clark and Jermichael Finley (and threaten to steal Gates, Todd Heap and Zach Miller from us) while injuries to the QB position have forced me to dislike players such as Brandon Pettigrew in the short term.

With that said, there is a glimmer of hope. It would not surprise me in the least if the likes of Brent Celek or Owen Daniels became their fantasy teams’ hero during the fantasy playoffs. Celek revealed earlier this week that a preseason hamstring injury carried over well into the season and that he did not feel healthy until after the Eagles’ Week 8 bye. The target numbers suggest that his health didn’t become known to the Eagles’ coaches or Michael Vick until just two weeks ago. Prior to Week 12, Celek’s highest-target games came in three of the four contests in which Kevin Kolb played the majority of the game or started during Vick’s absence. Since Week 12, Celek has seven receptions on 15 combined targets for 105 yards and a score. I started to believe in Celek’s increasing role in the offense when Vick forced a pass over and past four defenders to his TE for a score late in the loss to the Bears. Though he did not score in Week 13 and posted a modest four-catch, 55-yard performance, it marked the first two times this season that he surpassed the 50-yard mark. While Philly’s Week 14 opponent, the Cowboys, haven’t been the most forgiving vs. opposing TEs, they have started to play more zone coverage since interim HC Jason Garrett assumed his new title and DC Paul Pasqualoni took over the defense. Zone defenses obviously favor receivers or tight ends who can sit down in the “holes” of the coverage and Celek is definitely one of those players. A start against the Giants in Week 15 is a bit more of a risky proposition, but the Philly TE could be a weapon again in Week 16 vs. the Vikings’ Cover 2.

As far as Daniels is concerned, I’m playing a hunch (let’s call it an educated guess). Deep leaguers have probably been using Joel Dreessen off and on for the past month or so, hoping that he could put up serviceable numbers until Daniels returned or they could find another option. Texans HC Gary Kubiak stated last Wednesday that Daniels would go in Week 14 and assured us some time ago that his starting TE would not return to the field until he was confident the injured hamstring was no longer an issue. Since Daniels returned to practice on Monday, he’ll have a full week to get up to speed. Once again, like Celek, the final weeks of the fantasy season do not present three consecutive easy matchups for Daniels, but if his owners can make it past this week (Baltimore), they will get to enjoy a healthy reputable TE with a good slate of matchups during the most important weeks of the season (Tennessee in Week 15, Denver in Week 16). When you consider that Andre Johnson has been far less than 100% for most of the season and neither Jacoby Jones nor Kevin Walter have stepped up as consistent threats for Houston, it’s not hard to imagine Daniels becoming a force right away.

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? e-mail me.