Without a doubt, this week represents the toughest set of projections I will attempt during this four-part series. If it is not the RB situations that exist in the backfields of the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins, then it is trying to figure out just how much Mike Martz will change the landscape in Chicago or predicting whether or not Brett Favre will report after training camp, during the season or not at all.

As I have in each of the first two PSAs, allow me to clear up a couple of misconceptions about my schedule analysis approach right away:

1. this is not a strength of schedule article that uses 2009 results to predict 2010 and
   
   
2. the schedule contributes to the projection of a player in this system, but it is far from the only determining factor I use.

This is the third of four straight articles in which I will be posting my game-by-game predictions, two divisions at a time. Bear in mind that while the final numbers are important, they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give this article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis.

Much like any system that projects future performance, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. After making the ability to personalize each matchup my focus last season, I hope to add volatility to the mix in 2010. By "volatility", I mean: 1) accessing whether my projection represents the ceiling or floor for a given player to operate in this season and 2) understanding that at least one-third of the teams will make a QB change at some point and about the same percentage of NFL starting RBs will not make it through the 16-game schedule (only 19 RBs with more than 100 carries played all 16 games last season). As such, I will judiciously add injury layoffs to players who I feel are significant injury risks. I also feel it necessary to state that my projections are subject to change. Fear not, however, as I will release my final projections and rankings in late August. However, the next few weeks should give all interested parties a pretty good idea of just how strongly I feel about a player's prospects for the upcoming season.

Perhaps more important than the final numbers for each player, though, are the highlighted matchups. Note that I have applied the green highlights (good matchups) to the players who I feel should take advantage of that matchup and the red highlights (bad matchups) to the ones that will be difficult - but not impossible - for that player. Only a handful of defenses merit bad matchups all over the board (the Steelers, Packers, Jets and Bengals all qualify for the most part this year), however, just because a player’s box is "red" one week doesn't mean the player won't put up his usual numbers just as a "green" doesn't necessarily mean he will. Furthermore, one WR can have a "red" matchup but the rest of his team could be neutral or green. For instance, when the Jets put CB Darrelle Revis on the opponent's #1 WR, it will qualify as a bad matchup only for the #1 WR, not necessarily for the rest of the passing game. Therefore, a QB, WR or TE will only be considered positive/negative if I don't think he can win his individual matchup.

Before we dive into the projections, let me revisit the volatility I spoke of earlier. In the blue vertical column to the right of my projection, I will place a sign (explained below) as to how much upside or downside a player has this season. Here is the key I will be using over the next four weeks, with no sign by a player’s name suggesting I feel I am projecting the player accurately:

(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Note: The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

NFC EAST

Run: Until the day Dallas does us all a favor and names a clear-cut starter at RB, fantasy owners are left with either tag-teaming Barber and Jones on their fantasy teams (thereby filling up two starting spots on your roster each week) and hoping both players don’t succumb to injury (a likely occurrence) OR they can avoid the situation and watch the duo combine for over 2,000 total yards on an offense that should be among the best in the league. In other words, my advice would be to make sure you have draft both of them or avoid them entirely. The season begins with three neutral matchups, although the first one comes against division rival Washington, which almost always makes for good TV. Chicago, Houston and Tennessee (Weeks 2, 3 and 5) each have the potential to give the Dallas rushing attack fits, but it is hard to imagine the Cowboys not being in a position to pound away against each of those defenses late in the game.

The most difficult portion of the running schedule begins in Week 6 in Minnesota and doesn’t get much better the following week in a home game vs. the Giants. The Jags possess the start of a solid run defense up the middle, but lack the depth and safety play needed to keep Barber and Jones in check all game long. The tough stretch ends with consecutive road games against the Packers and Giants before letting up considerably in home dates vs. Detroit and New Orleans. The final quarter of the slate is neutral matchup-wise, although a Week 13 road game in Indianapolis may force the Cowboys to abandon the run game early in order to keep up with the Colts’ offense on the scoreboard. Jones is a solid bet once again vs. Philly in Week 14 – the same defense that had no answer for him two straight weeks last season in convincing Dallas victories. Wrapping up the fantasy schedule, it is notable that each of the teams Dallas faces during the final two weeks of fantasy playoffs (Redskins and Cardinals) each will play a 3-4 defense and both should be league average or better at stuffing the run.

Pass: Assuming Bryant’s ankle injury early in training camp isn’t a sign of things to come, the Cowboys should have more than enough weapons to overcome just about every difficult matchup they face this season. For example, the Redskins and Bears (Weeks 1-2) are more than capable defenses that should be able to pressure the QB and play respectably on the back end of the defense, but neither defense will have an answer for Austin, Bryant AND Witten. Houston (Week 3) should probably be given a green as well as Brian Cushing will be missed – this pre-bye stretch should serve as a springboard to what could easily a career fantasy season for Witten. (In fact, Witten doesn’t face a worthy opponent until Week 9.) The fun continues after the bye for Romo against a young and vulnerable Titans secondary (once you get past CB Cortland Finnegan) and a Vikings’ run defense that will force the Cowboys to throw all day long in all likelihood.

The Giants’ contests (Week 7) could easily be a carbon copy of the Vikings’ game if DC Perry Fewell gets as much out of his players as I expect, but the passing game should get some relief the next week against the highly questionable pass rush of the Jags. The hardest part of the fantasy slate comes over the next two games (Weeks 9-10) on the road against the highly-effective blitzing defenses of the Packers and Giants. The Cowboys catch a break the following week in a home tilt vs. a suspect Lions pass defense but must face another blitz-happy defense like New Orleans in Week 12. Indianapolis (Week 13) should represent a bonanza of fantasy points, but playing the Colts on the road often has the opposite effect for owners counting on passing yards and TDs. The Cowboys face the Eagles for the first time all season in Week 14 before wrapping the season with fantasy playoff matchups vs. the Redskins and the Cardinals. Each team will play a 3-4 defense and provide at least one edge rusher who will attempt to terrorize RT Marc Columbo, who will need to prove his health all season long after being rushed back last season from injury and performing badly in the team’s playoff loss to Minnesota.

Run: For those owners looking for an opportunity to ride a player or two to get through the first third of the season in hopes of bringing home a bounty before the schedule gets difficult, look no further than Jacobs and Bradshaw. The Giants catch a huge break in the first quarter of the season, drawing three of their first four games at home and getting to start against the defense I feel will be the worst run-stopping team this season in Carolina. Weeks 2-3 could each feature worthy run-stopping defenses, but if New York shows the brute force on the offensive line and Jacobs doesn’t get hurt early like he did last season, neither the Colts nor Titans should be able to withstand a full game of the Giants’ backfield. Houston (Week 5) will be another league-average run-stopping defense that will just be getting back OLB Brian Cushing after his four-game suspension. Detroit (Week 6) is yet another opportunity for the Giants to pound away at a below-average defense, although it would be foolish to expect the Lions to be anywhere near as pathetic stopping the run this season as they were in 2009. Dallas finally ends the six-game run of 4-3 defenses in Week 7, but the Cowboys and their 3-4 defensive scheme is hardly a mystery to their hated rivals.

After the Week 8 bye, the Giants head up to Seattle and its decided home-field advantage at Qwest Field before facing the Cowboys for the second time in four weeks in Week 10 – this time at home. Philadelphia (Week 11) checks in as the fourth consecutive team that should give the Giants’ run game a pretty serious challenge, be it due to talent or home-field advantage. Jacksonville (Week 12) could also be a stout run defense if its DT tandem of Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu has gelled by then, but I fear the Jags’ safety play will haunt them vs. Bradshaw’s game-breaking speed. And the last quarter (Weeks 13-16) of the fantasy season does New York no favors either – particularly the fantasy playoffs – as the Giants face the two best run defenses in the league (in my estimation) in Weeks 14 and 16 with a talented division opponent sandwiched in between. All in all, I would not want to have to rely on either Giants’ RB in December.

Pass: I expect New York to return to its roots as a mauling, physical run team that will lean heavily on Jacobs, Bradshaw and the defense in 2010. However, last year proved Manning can post some significant fantasy numbers when necessary and HC Tom Coughlin has stated this offseason he’ll continue to put more on Manning’s plate as long as he is up to the challenge. As mentioned above in the “run” section, Manning & Co. kick off the year facing six straight 4-3 defenses – none of which should be as good as the defense the Giants will practice against. Manning, Smith and Nicks should all reap the benefits during this time, as only the Colts and Bears should provide any resistance, provided New York doesn’t choose to feature the run in those games. Again, just as I mentioned in the above paragraph, the schedule takes a turn for the worst in Week 7 when the Giants visit Dallas, although it should be noted that recent New York-Dallas games have been wildly unpredictable contests.

Following the bye, an improved Seahawks secondary at home could rattle the Giants’ receiving corps in Week 9. The Giants then take another crack against the Cowboys’ stout blitzing defense again in Week 10 before they get their first look of the season against the equally aggressive Eagles’ blitz the next week. The pass schedule lightens up ever so slightly over the next two weeks in home games vs. the Jags and Redskins, but wraps up in a terrible way during the fantasy playoffs. Minnesota’s run defense may force the Giants to pass all day in the Metrodome, but the elements may be a factor (as will the defenses) in Weeks 15 and 16 against the complex blitz schemes of the Eagles and Packers.

Run: Unlike just about any other team in the NFL, the Eagles are annually one team that appears to be content with not having a RB run for 1,000 yards. In fact, only twice since 2003 has a Philadelphia RB (Brian Westbrook) accomplished the feat. So, as the Eagles move forward without Westbrook for the first time in nine seasons, it seems unlikely the team will send another RB to the 1,000-yard club in 2010 – especially since Vick figures to steal a few opportunities each week. Because so much of the fantasy value Eagles RBs can possess is tied into the passing game, I will divert from my usual path of analyzing the entire schedule and simply direct your attention to the matchups I believe McCoy and Bell can take advantage of this season.

Detroit and Jacksonville (Weeks 2-3) should each be improved vs. the run this season, but lack the overall talent and depth from front to back to be a good bet to hold up against a team that is willing to commit to running the ball. (In the Eagles’ case, this often only occurs when they are trying to close out the game in the final minutes.) Week 6 offers another opportunity for Philadelphia to run the ball at home vs. a suspect Falcons’ run-stopping defense. At this point, only one Atlanta front-seven defender – MLB Curtis Lofton – can be considered an above-average talent as a defender in the run game. Beyond those three contests, the Eagles’ run game figures to be a hit-or-miss proposition against what projects to be one of the league’s toughest run schedules.

Pass: While many expect Jackson and Celek to alternate as Kolb’s favorite target each week, I find it hard to believe that the TE (and Kolb's best friend on the team) won't hold a significant lead in the reception department at season's end. Kolb's first start as the team's unquestioned QB1 couldn't be much tougher than it is in Week 1 when the Eagles host the Packers and DC Dom Capers' zone blitz schemes. The next two weeks should offer less of a challenge as neither Detroit nor Jacksonville has the safety play or pass rush to contain Jackson all game long. (Although the Lions’ Louis Delmas is a future star, the Lions lack the pass rush.) The difficulty of the schedule ratchets back up as the Redskins and Niners (Weeks 4-5) bring their 3-4 defenses (and what could be above-average pass defenses), meaning Kolb may struggle in three of his first five games out of the gate. Atlanta and Tennessee (Weeks 6-7) are interesting back-to-back contests for the Eagles in that both defenses feature upper-echelon CBs (Dunta Robinson and Cortland Finnegan), but lack many of the other necessary parts to do much more than shut down just one aspect of the Eagles' offense, meaning Maclin and Celek should be in line for solid games.

The second-half slate is not pleasant coming out of the bye for Philly as it plays four consecutive games against some of the best individual pass rushers and/or pass defenses the league can offer. In addition to Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (and the stingy Colts' pass defense) in Week 9, the Eagles must face the 3-4 OLB duo of Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo (Week 10), the Giants' plethora of athletic DEs (Week 11) and a Julius Peppers-led Bears' defense (that loves to blitz) in Week 12 that will be one of the league's best overall defenses if it can just stay healthy. After that long run of difficult opponents, Philadelphia must hold up against two more teams from Texas that figure to be heavy-blitzing defenses as well. Whereas the Eagles may be able to take advantage of a young Texans' secondary (Week 13), it's doubtful Philly will enjoy much success against the talented Cowboys' pass defense one week later. Along with Dallas game, the fantasy playoff schedule wraps up with another poor matchup against the Giants on the road in Week 15 and a Vikings' defense that will make the Eagles even more of a one-dimensional offense than they already are.

Run: Let’s cut right to the chase; the next time someone figures out what goes on in the mind of HC Mike Shanahan in regards to his RB usage may be the first time it has happened since the days of Terrell Davis and a young Portis. Since Portis and Johnson are both now on the wrong end of the RB clock, the RB situation may be more confusing than ever. And while the Redskins have – for all intents and purposes – solved their long-term offensive tackle problems this offseason, the interior of the line remains an issue, meaning the days of 5.0+ YPC from a Shanahan RB may be a year or two away. The schedule does no favors in that regard either as only St. Louis (Week 3) can be considered a good matchup in the Redskins’ eight pre-bye games. Dallas is a poor matchup to kick off the season and Houston (Week 2) has enough talent – even minus OLB Brian Cushing – to contain the lack of game-breaking ability the Washington RBs possess. The next three weeks see the Redskins take on a pair of electric offensive teams that may not allow Washington to get its running game started; even if the Week 5 game is low-scoring, it may not matter with the Packers being an elite run-stopping team. The pre-bye slate closes with two road games, the first of which is against a Bears’ team that could easily live up to my expectation as a top-10 run-stopping unit. However, Week 8 in Detroit should be more palatable for the Washington run game, although it may only be useful for fantasy owners if Shanahan has chosen a lead RB at that point.

Whatever confidence may be gained against the Lions may get lost in the grueling four-week stretch after the bye. While I have the Eagles and Titans (Weeks 10-11) rated as average rush defenses, both have high ceilings in that regard. The Vikings and Giants (Weeks 12-13), on the other hand, should be elite and near-elite vs. the run, respectively. The fantasy playoff matchups in Weeks 14 and 16 are winnable matchups for the Redskins. Even though the Bucs and Jags each should sport a young and improving defense, it is a stretch to believe either team will skyrocket up the rush defense rankings this season with an overall lack of proven playmakers. Those two matchups sandwich another red matchup in Dallas (Week 15). Therefore, with a schedule that shows 40% of the teams the Redskins will face this season will be difficult to run against and a coach that is known for his quick trigger-finger when it comes to RBs, it seems like a bad bet that either Portis or Johnson will have anything more than RB3/flex potential in most leagues.

Pass: What is clear is that Shanahan will be able to do more for Donovan McNabb than ex-HC Jim Zorn was ever able to do for Jason Campbell. In Shanahan’s system, McNabb will be able to advantage of his underutilized mobility with frequent throws on the move as the coach likes to roll his signal-callers out in order to better sell the run as well as buy time for his QB when he does is using play-action. What is not so clear is whether McNabb is able to overcome his supporting cast, which features a 31-year-old speed WR (Moss) – who typically fades in the second half of the season – and little else at receiver. McNabb will have a pair of solid TEs to throw to, so he may not be in such bad shape, even if the Redskins will struggle to create big plays in the passing game. Thankfully, Washington invested in its offensive line in the offseason, so it can withstand a rough first-half slate that starts on a Sunday night at home vs. the Cowboys. Unlike the first game, Houston and St. Louis (Weeks 2-3) should allow Shanahan to execute his offensive vision for the Redskins against a young defense (the Texans) minus Rookie of the Year OLB Brian Cushing and a defense still at least a year away from being a respectable overall defense (the Rams). After that, McNabb faces his old team (which should qualify as the first of four straight red matchups for the passing game if not for the fact that he should know every aspect of his former team’s defense) in Week 4 before the Packers, Colts and Bears complete a run of defenses that will determine the direction of the Redskins’ season.

Washington should catch a break and perhaps some offensive momentum in the passing game right before the bye against a Lions’ secondary that may be forced to start some combination of Chris Houston, ex-Rams castoff Jonathan Wade, an aging Dre’ Bly or rookie Amari Spievey. The much-anticipated rematch with the Eagles takes place following the Week 9 bye in what could easily be the first of three contests in which McNabb and Cooley hook up with great frequency. Over the final quarter of the fantasy season, fantasy owners may be surprised the Redskins may offer some degree of help for fantasy owners looking for late-season assistance. Granted, the Giants and Cowboys (Weeks 13 and 15) are poor matchups for all parties, but McNabb should enjoy hosting the Bucs in Week 14 and playing in Florida against the Jags in Week 16 – two teams that have enough talent in the secondary to contain the Redskins’ WRs, but lack the talent at LB and S needed to cover Washington’s TEs.

NFC NORTH

Run: If ever there was a time and a team to heed my advice when it comes to schedule analysis, the 2010 Bears would be it. While the run game already figured to be an afterthought once Chicago hired OC Mike Martz this offseason, the schedule maker did fantasy owners one better – but we’ll get to that in a bit. Because fantasy owners know what Martz means to a running game, it makes it very difficult to award any green matchups to Forte or Taylor simply because it’s not certain the new OC will take advantage of such a matchup. Nevertheless, the season kicks off with a solid run game matchup vs. Detroit before getting difficult in a hurry in Weeks 2-4 against Dallas, Green Bay and the New York Giants – three teams that should have more than enough ammunition to keep the Bears’ running game in check. The schedule quickly reverses course against the team I project to have the worst run defense (Carolina) and a home game against a team (Seattle) which almost always seems to experience a significant drop-off in its play away from Qwest Field. Washington (Week 7) projects to be the fourth pre-bye team that has a defense capable of stuffing Forte and Taylor.

Another potential great run matchup awaits Forte and Taylor in Week 9 at Buffalo, but it is hard to find a defense for Forte and Taylor to thrive against until Week 13 potentially, and even that is a tough sell because I expect the Lions’ run defense to get significantly better as the season progresses. And, then, that’s when it gets downright dreadful for the Bears. While the pass game will certainly be affected by the quality of opponents during the fantasy playoffs, it is the run game that will take the biggest hit. Facing a Bill Belichick defense in Week 14 is never a pleasant thought, but seeing two of the top-five run defenses in the final two weeks of the fantasy season is enough to severely downgrade Forte and Taylor as it is highly unlikely either will help fantasy owners take home their league title in Weeks 15-16.

Pass: If the 2010 Bears hope to emulate “The Greatest Show on Turf” Rams that Martz oversaw in St. Louis, we have to know where everyone stands. Knox is locked into the Torry Holt’s old split end role of the offense while Hester is being groomed for Isaac Bruce’s flanker spot. Aromashodu is being prepped for all three positions (including the slot), but the team would like to see Hester return kicks and punts. Not only that, Martz envisions Hester in more of an Az Hakim role (who drew a lot of special teams work as you may recall). So, sometime before the end of the season, Knox should be Holt, Aromashodu should be Bruce (if he can stay healthy) and Hester should be Hakim. Just for good measure, Bennett should play the role of Ricky Proehl…got all that?

The season begins with what could be an aerial circus for both teams at home vs. Detroit. It quickly turns sour in Weeks 2-4, though, as the Cowboys, Packers and Giants will have a chance to harass Cutler all day behind a shaky pass-blocking line. Carolina (Week 5) is talented enough in the secondary to cause the Bears WRs some problems, but the Panthers will struggle all season long to generate pressure on the QB, so the deep drops required in a Martz offense may not open Cutler to all that much punishment. Seattle and Washington (Weeks 6-7) are consecutive home games for the Bears, the former which should play out much like the Carolina game. The latter contest, on the other hand, may remind Chicago of its rough three-game stretch in Weeks 2-4. The second half of the slate starts well for the Bears as neither the Bills (Week 9) nor the Vikings (Week 10) may have enough depth in the secondary to contend with the likes of Hester, Knox and Aromashodu. However, Miami and Philadelphia (Weeks 11-12) should be more than capable of generating pressure on the QB and holding up long enough in coverage to make it a long and taxing day for Cutler. Detroit (Week 13) may allow Chicago to find its bearings once again, but good luck against the Belichick-coached Patriots, a road game against the Vikings and the Jets (Weeks 14-16).

Run: In my estimation, a true fantasy RB2 is a player who has the ability to almost single-handedly carry his fantasy owners to victory some weeks, but is too inconsistent to be considered a RB1. Combining his recent injury history college with the (small) threat of Smith stealing important carries from him at some point; it becomes pretty clear that Best will be a “true” RB2 in fantasy this season, especially after analyzing the schedule. The rookie draws no breaks over the first quarter of the season as the Bears, Eagles, Vikings and Packers all should have (or already possess) above-average to elite run defenses. Best should scorch a slower Rams defense in Week 5, but the Giants could easily be the fifth of six teams before the bye that could bottle up the speedster.

Little changes after the Week 7 bye as three of the next four opponents each have a 3-4 defense that could easily overwhelm the Lions’ average run-blocking line (Redskins, Jets and Cowboys). However, the first two of those games are at home and should serve as good preparation for the one team in that stretch that doesn’t figure to be all that great at stopping the run (Buffalo), another 3-4 defense. New England (Week 12) and Chicago (Week 13) could also give Best fits before the Lions must play host to the difficult Packers’ defense once again in Week 14. Almost as a reward for playing such a difficult stretch of defenses, the schedule allows Detroit to finish up its fantasy schedule in the state of Florida in games vs. Tampa Bay (Week 15) and Miami (Week 16). Although Miami’s defense should be up to the task of bottling up Best, the rookie’s speed could easily overwhelm the Bucs.

Pass: It is my opinion that Johnson could easily become this generation’s Randy Moss (and then some), but in order for that to happen, “Megatron” needs to stay healthy. As the team’s offensive centerpiece and with an improved supporting cast, he’ll certainly have the opportunity. Only one game (against Revis) should lead to definite struggles for his fantasy numbers, although there are a number of solid CBs the Lions must face this season. The early going is not easy, however, for the Lions’ offensive line, which must face Julius Peppers, Trent Cole and Jared Allen in the first three games of the season. If they can stand up to that trio of pass rushers, it bodes well for the Lions when they take on Green Bay’s high-pressure, turnover-forcing defense in Week 4. The schedule provides Detroit a chance to lick its wounds in Week 5 against a weak Rams pass rush and secondary, but sends the team right back into the fire against what figures to be another top pass-rush unit in the Giants in the week before the bye.

The Lions open up the second-half schedule facing four consecutive 3-4 defenses (Weeks 8-11, three of which will test the improvement the offensive line made over the first half of the season. New England and Chicago (Weeks 12-13) each have the defensive minds in place to slow down Detroit’s passing game, but it is doubtful that either opponent has an answer for Johnson now that the Lions have players like Burleson and Scheffler who can make defenses pay for double- and triple-teaming Johnson. Green Bay (Week 14) ends Detroit’s run of three straight home games but also may not have the pieces necessary to control all of the Lions’ weapons, while the Bucs (Weeks 15) probably don’t possess the pass-rush capabilities needed to harass Stafford. The fantasy season ends with a road test against what should be a difficult road matchup vs. DC Mike Nolan’s Dolphins defense. Miami possesses the CBs necessary to stay with Johnson and Burleson, but may not be able to solve Scheffler. So, if it isn’t apparent by now, two things must happen for Detroit to become the land of fantasy opportunity: 1) Stafford must take the leap the Lions believe he can and be able to make quicker decisions and 2) the line must be much improved, which will be helped by Best and a more experienced Stafford.

Run: Anyone who has been a Grant owner over the past three seasons already knows that he has been a second-half (of the season) runner. Judging by the schedule, he may not get much of a chance to do it again. Grant may be a bit hit-or-miss during the first quarter of the fantasy slate, though, as Green Bay will alternate potentially poor matchups in Weeks 1 and 3 with green matchups in Weeks 2 and 4. Given the fact that Grant should never see a loaded box with all the weapons the team has in the passing game, he could easily run through the Eagles and Bears’ defenses as well if he doesn’t need eight games to “warm up” in 2010. Washington and Miami (Weeks 5-6) both possess 3-4 defenses which should serve as a good indication as to how the Packers will fare against the most brutal part of their run schedule (Weeks 7, 8, 9 and 11). In facing the Vikings (twice), Jets and Cowboys, Green Bay will play four consecutive contests against defenses I have projected as top-five run-stopping units. Even with Rodgers as the centerpiece of this offense, expect Grant to struggle mightily during this time and defer to the passing game.

Week 12 may offer the Packers’ ground attack a one-week reprieve – although a road game in Atlanta may be a shootout in which the run game suffers yet again – before Green Bay is forced the face the sixth-best run defense (according to my defensive efficiency ratings) in the Niners, although that contest is at Lambeau Field. In Week 14, the Packers draw a Lions defense that should be much improved over last season vs. the run, but one that Grant should have some success against. The weather – as it usually does – figures to play a pivotal role in the game-planning of the Packers’ offense in Weeks 15 and 16 when they first travel to New England before returning home and hosting the Giants. Even though the Pats and Giants should both field respectable run defenses, expect Grant to see enough carries in both games to be productive in fantasy. Without sounding like a broken record, defenses will have to give Green Bay the running game in many cases because the passing attack is so good. Combine that with Grant’s history as a November and December standout and fantasy owners should have themselves a solid RB2.

Pass: Rodgers is the epitome of a fantasy QB: he is accurate, mobile, durable and plays in an offense perfectly suited for him. His passing numbers since becoming the starter speak for themselves and, while he’s not the best athlete, he knows when to run and does a good job at being productive in that area of his game. But what makes him so good is that his combination of supporting cast and running ability make him a good bet for jaw-dropping fantasy numbers each week, almost regardless of the opponent. Thus, only the projected best defense in the NFL this season (the Jets, Week 8) makes the cut as a red matchup for Rodgers this season. And to be honest, there isn’t a defense in the league that can legitimately cover the wealth of gifted receivers the Packers have (Jennings, Driver, Jones, Nelson and now Finley) all game long. As a result, Rodgers is just about as much as a lock for fantasy production this season as an owner can hope for from any QB this year.

As the receivers go, Weeks 6-9 represent the only truly difficult part of the season. Miami’s two athletic CBs (Vontae Davis, Sean Smith) are more than capable of locking down Driver and Jennings, but don’t figure to have an answer for Finley. The Jets (Week 8) do have the overall personnel and scheme and represent the one bump in the road for the Packers, but the other difficult matchup – the Cowboys in Week 9 – must play Green Bay at Lambeau Field. The only other challenge is one that no one can reasonably predict – how treacherous will the weather be in Weeks 15 (when the Packers visit the Pats) and 16 (when they host the Giants)? As we have learned, wind is a major consideration in these cold-weather contests. But talk of the elements aside, I believe I may be underselling Rodgers’ numbers above because he is line for a huge season. On the other hand, I feel pretty confident in Finley’s ability to hit the numbers I forecasted for him.

Run: If Peterson is going to take the world by storm again this season, he’s going to have to do it against the second-most difficult run schedule of the teams we’ve analyzed so far (Miami has the toughest). And whatever advantage Peterson gets in opportunity because the Vikes allowed Chester Taylor to leave, the schedule more than makes up for in unforgiving run defenses. AP should get off to a good start, however, as Minnesota will be primed to give the Saints a heavy dose of Peterson in the Superdome for the Thursday night opener. Miami and DC Mike Nolan (Week 2) should be able to keep the Minnesota ground game in check somewhat, but Detroit (Week 3) should be Peterson’s best chance to hit the century mark – if he hasn’t done so already – before the team’s early bye week.

In Weeks 5-7, the Vikings are faced with a threesome of 3-4 defenses (all of which I have projected as in the top seven of rush defenses). New England (Week 8) may offer a bit of break, although a healthy Pats’ defense would likely force Favre to beat them. Another 3-4 defense (Arizona) that I have among the top 10 rush defenses awaits Minnesota in Week 9, before Chicago – a team that Peterson has torn apart in his short career – hosts the Vikings in Week 10. Another meeting against the Packers follows before Minnesota faces its sixth 3-4 defense post-bye on the road at Washington. AP owners finally catch a break as the Vikings host Buffalo’s porous run defense in Week 13 before closing out with a trio of defenses which could all do a fair job at containing Peterson in the fantasy playoffs. The schedule is enough for me to downgrade AP to the back end of the first tier of RBs, meaning he probably should be drafted behind Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice and Chris Johnson.

Pass: This passing game has complete boom-or-bust potential this season. What do I mean? Does Favre return? How bad is Rice’s hip? How often will Harvin’s migranes bother him this season? Obviously, at this point of the preseason, we’ll cover the best-case scenarios for Favre and Harvin (because their situations are guesswork to say the least) while maintaining skepticism regarding Rice (as just last week HC Brad Childress stated he felt his WR was “a ways away” from coming off active/PUP); thus, I’m predicting a slow start from Rice. Unfortunately, the schedule doesn’t give much of a break to the team many feel will be a Super Bowl team this season. The season gets off to a rough start – especially if Rice isn’t 100% - begins against a pair of DCs in the Saints’ Gregg Williams and Dolphins’ Mike Nolan who know a thing or two about bringing pressure. Both coordinators also have the starting CBs necessary to lock up Rice and Berrian, so Harvin may be a featured player in the first two weeks as well as Shiancoe. Detroit (Week 3) should be a plus-matchup leading into the bye, but Minnesota may be forced to lean on the run (something they will probably do more this year anyway) more heavily if Rice is still struggling to get back to full health.

Coming out of the bye, the passing game had better be healthy because three of the nastiest defenses the league can offer will be waiting. The Jets (Week 5), Cowboys (Week 6) and Packers (Week 7) all have the personnel to make the Vikings one-dimensional if Rice or Harvin are limited or Favre is still somehow hampered by his ankle. Although the Pats’ defense (Week 8) isn’t what it used to be, they are still another formidable defense that will also test Minnesota’s mettle. In fact, it isn’t until the Bills Week 13 when the Vikings’ receivers can honestly look at their schedule and find an opponent they should dominate. The fantasy playoff run in Weeks 14-16 provides Minnesota with a small break as the first two weeks are at home in the Metrodome, but gives the team another run of potentially dangerous pass defenses. In fact, the final three weeks of the fantasy slate are loaded with defenses who figure to bring the blitz as much – if not more – than any other team in the league this season. Worse yet, all three defenses have the CBs necessary to severely limit Rice’s potential fantasy playoff impact. Due to his hip injury, the schedule and the attention he will generate as the Vikings’ WR1, Rice should probably viewed as a fantasy WR2 and may even be less productive than Harvin this season while Favre should be expected to regress as well, if he even plays.

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