Before we get to that point, however, we must tackle the last two divisions that remain a mystery: the NFC South and NFC West. Now before we get to the breakdowns, it is worth another mention just what playing against the AFC or NFC West has meant historically for the RB position. Since 2000, an AFC or NFC West RB has finished in top five of fantasy RBs a staggering 22 times! Taken one step further, 39 of the 50 top-five RB spots since 2000 have gone to backs whose teams went up against the AFC and/or the NFC West that season. Even more impressive, the top-scoring RB in fantasy football each season played at least four games against the AFC and/or NFC West.

As I have in each of the first three PSAs, allow me to clear up a couple of misconceptions about my schedule analysis approach right away:

1. this is not a strength of schedule article that uses 2009 results to predict 2010 and
   
   
2. the schedule contributes to the projection of a player in this system, but it is far from the only determining factor I use.

Bear in mind that while the final numbers are important, they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher), please give this article a read for an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis.

Much like any system that projects future performance, each year gives me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product. After making the ability to personalize each matchup my focus last season, I hope to add volatility to the mix in 2010. By "volatility", I mean: 1) accessing whether my projection represents the ceiling or floor for a given player to operate in this season and 2) understanding that at least one-third of the teams will make a QB change at some point and about the same percentage of NFL starting RBs will not make it through the 16-game schedule (only 19 RBs with more than 100 carries played all 16 games last season). As such, I will judiciously add injury layoffs to players who I feel are significant injury risks. I also feel it necessary to state that my projections are subject to change. Fear not, however, as I will release my final projections and rankings in late August. However, the next few weeks should give all interested parties a pretty good idea of just how strongly I feel about a player's prospects for the upcoming season.

Perhaps more important than the final numbers for each player, though, are the highlighted matchups. Note that I have applied the green highlights (good matchups) to the players who I feel should take advantage of that matchup and the red highlights (bad matchups) to the ones that will be difficult - but not impossible - for that player. Only a handful of defenses merit bad matchups all over the board (the Steelers, Packers, Jets and Bengals all qualify for the most part this year), however, just because a player’s box is "red" one week doesn't mean the player won't put up his usual numbers just as a "green" doesn't necessarily mean he will. Furthermore, one WR can have a "red" matchup but the rest of his team could be neutral or green. For instance, when the Jets put CB Darrelle Revis on the opponent's #1 WR, it will qualify as a bad matchup only for the #1 WR, not necessarily for the rest of the passing game. Therefore, a QB, WR or TE will only be considered positive/negative if I don't think he can win his individual matchup.

Before we dive into the projections, let me revisit the volatility I spoke of earlier. In the blue vertical column to the right of my projection, I will place a sign (explained below) as to how much upside or downside a player has this season. Here is the key I will be using over the next four weeks, with no sign by a player’s name suggesting I feel I am projecting the player accurately:

(^) - Projection represents the player’s floor; he has significant upside.
(+) - Projection may be selling the player short; he has some upside.
(-) - Projection may be overselling the player; he is a slight risk.
(!) – Projection represents the player’s ceiling; he is a significant risk.

Note: The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game.

NFC SOUTH

Run: It seems all too often during this four-week process, I have suggested players to avoid (or trade) over the back half of the season after strong starts rather than ones who may finish strong after starting a bit slow. So it is only fair that since I drove the anti-Michael Turner bandwagon last season, I’m ready to lead the crowd in the opposite direction in 2010. While I’m typically not crazy about recommending RBs opposing the AFC North, the fact the Falcons have 10 games against NFC South and West defenses – five of which I have marked as green matchups – makes the pro-Turner bus more palatable. With that said, Turner cannot be expected to enjoy a great deal of success over the first quarter of the season when he must face the very capable 3-4 run defenses of the Steelers and Cardinals. With any luck, the Saints will allow Turner to have a RB1-caliber day, but the Niners in Week 4 should be yet another challenging defense that Atlanta will struggle against. Turner should, however, experience a field day in Week 5 against Cleveland’s overmatched 3-4 defense, but he may once again struggle to get it going against a pair of quick and aggressive run-stopping defenses like Philadelphia and Cincinnati in Weeks 6-7.

Just as we’ll see in the passing game analysis below, Atlanta should enjoy a great deal of success on the ground over the second half of the season, starting in Week 9 at home vs. Tampa Bay. Baltimore (Week 10) and Green Bay (Week 12) will offer the most resistance of any of the Falcons’ remaining opponents and may force Turner to post fantasy RB2 numbers in those weeks, but it would not be the least bit surprising if “The Burner” posted at least 100 yards AND a score in every other second-half game. Seattle and New Orleans (Weeks 15-16) should be the toughest opponents of these “softer” matchups, but a rededicated Turner in an offense that makes him the focus each week should allow him to be one of the best finishers in fantasy this season.

Pass: Fantasy owners who like to wait until the middle rounds to draft a QB may have their player to target this season – Ryan. It’s no big surprise that a QB with two weapons like White and Gonzalez would be sought after, but what is in store after the bye for the Falcons’ offense has to be thrilling Atlanta fans as well as any fantasy owner of the three man cogs of this passing game. The season gets off to an inauspicious start with a road game in Pittsburgh before the team heads home to play Arizona. Both teams play a 3-4 defense that thrives on pressuring the QB and should be among the best run-stopping teams, so Ryan will need to sharp to be useful in fantasy. Week 3 sees Atlanta travel to another difficult venue –New Orleans – against a Saints defense that will blitz all day and focuses on turning their opponent over. The Falcons oppose yet another stingy 3-4 defense one week later at home vs. San Francisco before getting their best matchup of the season in Week 5 at Cleveland against a much tamer 3-4 defense. The last two games leading into the bye may halt any momentum created against the Browns as the aggressive Eagles and Bengals’ defenses figure to give Atlanta’s offense all it can handle.

As difficult as the Falcons have it prior to their Week 8 bye, the green matchups just fly off the board in the second half of the season. In fact, from Week 9-14, I have Ryan facing four greens and one neutral matchup with just one red (Green Bay, Week 12). In Tampa Bay (twice), Baltimore, St. Louis and Carolina, Atlanta faces a total of five flawed pass defenses that either will fail to generate much pressure or do not have the talent necessary to compete with the likes of White and Gonzalez. A road game in Seattle (Week 15) may also qualify as a green matchup if I have overestimated the ability of CB Marcus Trufant to bounce back or the impact rookie S Earl Thomas will have. The Falcons’ fantasy slate comes to an end at home in what should be a huge rematch against the Saints, a difficult opponent but not one that will shut the likes of Ryan, White or Gonzalez down.

Run: How quickly do opinions change in fantasy football? Last year at this time, Williams was a popular top-10 fantasy pick as a player who had distanced himself from an injury-plagued Stewart with a 20-TD campaign in 2008. While Williams was far from disappointing in 2009, he didn’t quite live up to his draft status for a number of reasons, one of which was an ankle injury in Week 15 that opened the door for Stewart to have a run at the feature back role. Two-plus games, 440 rushing yards and four combined TDs later and more than a few fantasy owners believe Stewart should be the man and Williams should be the complement in the Carolina backfield. Nevertheless, if you believe in analyzing the schedule as I do, you will want the Panthers’ backfield right up until the time when you need them the most – fantasy championship week. But first things first: Carolina opens the season with a five-game stretch that would tax average running games, but the Panthers could very easily pound the Giants, Bucs, Saints and Bears into the ground with its proficient attack. (In fact, Carolina did run roughshod over the first three aforementioned teams last season.) Only Cincinnati in Week 3 has enough talent and depth on all three levels of the defense to successfully bottle up Stewart and Williams during the five-game run mentioned earlier to start the season.

Williams and Stewart’s owners should enjoy the ride after the Week 6 bye with two exceptions – Week 7 vs. the Niners and Week 11 vs. Baltimore – although both games will be at home against very good run-stopping units. Otherwise, “Double Trouble” (as the duo likes to call themselves) should build up a lot of goodwill in fantasy as they face off against the likes of St. Louis (Week 8), New Orleans (Week 9), Tampa Bay (Week 10), Cleveland (Week 12) and even Seattle (Week 13). Granted, the Saints stand out as a team that may not be a “easy” matchup, but all that really needs to happen is an injury up front (to someone like DT Sedrick Ellis, just like last season) or a quick start by Carolina’s rushing attack in that game to make the Saints play catch-up – and not the other way around. One more enticing matchup remains after that long run of average-to-below average run defenses – Week 14 at home vs. Atlanta. Arizona (Week 15) should be up to the challenge of containing Williams and Stewart somewhat with its strong defensive line and the run support of players like S Adrian Wilson, but like some other teams on the Panthers’ schedule, I hesitate labeling that as a “red” matchup because the Panthers’ rushing attack is that good. However, this “era of good feeling” will have run its course more than likely by Week 16, when they must play in Pittsburgh. What do I mean? As a point of reference, the most rushing yards allowed by the Steelers over the past two seasons when S Troy Polamalu has played is 122.

Pass: It’s a very good thing for the Panthers they are a running team, because there is too much red on Moore’s chart for my liking. If Moore showed us anything over Carolina’s 4-1 finish last season, though, it is that he can take care of the ball – a must for a John Fox-coached team. Luckily, very few defenses on the schedule have a CB matching up with a healthy Smith, so Moore should be able to avoid the ugly performances that forced Delhomme out of the starting job last season. Moore gets two of the four teams he faced over the final five contests of 2009 right off the bat, although the Giants will be healthy on defense this time and will be a huge challenge for the Panthers up front. Assuming the Bucs’ young defensive linemen (Gerald McCoy, Brian Price) are still playing like rookies in Week 2, the matchup is a solid one for Moore and Smith although when given the choice, Carolina would much rather run than pass. The next three weeks leading up to the bye (vs. Cincinnati, at New Orleans, vs. Chicago), the Panthers passing attack will need to be as efficient as the running game as all three defenses should be in the top half of the league in creating sacks and/or turnovers in the passing game. And in the case of the Bengals and Saints, both defenses have sound CB and S play and can generate pressure on the QB. So, if Moore is going to crack at any point this season, Weeks 3-5 would be a likely spot for him to do so.

Carolina gets another bad matchup right out of the Week 6 bye in the Niners before entering the softest part of its passing schedule. Four of the five opponents over that time (St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Cleveland) have significant shortcomings in defending the pass. However, the caveat to this run of poor pass defenses is that three of the four “easy” games are on the road. The one difficult matchup during the five-game stretch (Weeks 8-12) is a home date vs. New Orleans, which will be the second time the teams have faced each other. The final quarter of the fantasy slate rates about average (Seattle, Arizona and Atlanta should be about middle of the pack in terms of stopping the pass) until Week 16, when the Panthers must travel to Heinz Field to meet the Steelers. Because this will be one of the few times where the running game may not be overly productive, it will be very important for Moore and Smith to be healthy and productive. Regardless, a matchup against Pittsburgh on the road during the fantasy title game is one that should be avoided if at all possible.

Run: As I conclude my third year of analyzing the schedule, I must admit I cannot recall ever seeing a running schedule like the one the Saints will face in 2010. The absence of the “middle class” of NFL defenses from this schedule means that New Orleans’ rushing attack may be even more Jekyll-and-Hyde than it usually is. For example, two of the top six run-stopping teams – according to my defensive effectiveness ratings – will meet the Saints in the first two weeks of the season. So while HC Sean Payton showed more dedication to the run game than ever last season, he’s also not the type of play-caller who wants to grind it out all day when he has Brees and a plethora of receivers he can call on every week. Weeks 3-4 transition nicely into two of the projected seven worst rush defenses (Atlanta, Carolina – both at the Superdome). Arizona (Week 5) will be much the same kind of test the Saints will encounter against San Francisco (tough-minded, aggressive 3-4 defense), but then New Orleans gets yet another two-week gift against the bottom-half run-stopping defenses of Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Once again, the difficulty level increases several times over when the Saints host the Steelers in Week 8, then goes all the way back down to the worst projected run defense in the league the following week at Carolina.

The one neutral matchup Thomas and Bush face all season is following the Saints’ Week 10 bye at home vs. Seattle – a matchup that could easily be a green matchup given the Seahawks’ history of playing poorly on the road. Of course, three of the next four contests are against top-eight projected run-stopping defenses (Dallas – Week 12, Cincinnati – Week 13, Baltimore – Week 15), with the added caveat of each of those games taking place on the road. However, because Thomas and Bush contribute so much to the passing game, they will not be a total loss – if healthy – during those weeks and should be quite helpful in Weeks 14 and 16 when the Saints wrap up the fantasy slate with two more games against two of the seven worst rush defenses (Rams and Falcons).

Pass: The Saints have pretty much become the NFC’s version of the Colts in that very few defenses represent a red matchup for the passing game; in this case, Brees and his receiving corps. In fact, it’s almost criminal that New Orleans faces only two teams in 2010 that have enough of a blend of talent, scheme and coaching to even warrant consideration for a poor matchup. On the other hand, owners looking for an excuse to spend a first or early-second round pick on Brees in fantasy drafts certainly have one with a mind-boggling seven green matchups! Minnesota and San Francisco are more than respectable pass defenses and should be able to make Brees work hard for what he gets in Weeks 1 and 2, but the Saints’ passing game could easily go on a five-game fantasy spree against the likes of Atlanta, Carolina, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Cleveland – all of which I have projected as bottom-half pass defenses, including four ranked in the bottom 10. Each team has one or two parts of the equation necessary to slow the Saints’ passing attack down, but only Carolina seems to be a legitimate concern (and that is only because the Panthers’ run defense projects to be so poor that New Orleans may run the ball in its two contests against its division rival in Weeks 4 and 9). A telling game for the Saints’ offense may come in Week 8 vs. the Steelers, who should be the best chess match of offense vs. defense on New Orleans’ schedule this season.

Following the bye, Brees faces a neutral matchup in Week 11 vs. the Seahawks – one he could easily dominate – before revisiting a 2009 classic rematch against the Cowboys, the team that ruined the Saints’ 13-0 start to the season. Outside of perhaps Pittsburgh, the most difficult matchup for New Orleans could very well be a road game in Cincinnati – a team that has enough talent and depth at CB to frustrate Brees – in Week 13. After that, the schedule makers did Brees, Colston and all of their fantasy owners a huge favor just in time for the fantasy playoffs. In St. Louis and Baltimore (Weeks 14 and 15), the Saints draw a Rams’ defense – that can neither rush the passer nor guard New Orleans’ wideouts – and a Ravens’ secondary that has lost their top three CBs over the past year to ACL injuries. Granted, two of them are likely to start the season (Fabian Washington and Lardarius Webb), but their best one is already out for the year (Domonque Foxworth). Finally, Week 16 offers up the Falcons, whose best hope of keeping the Saints from exploding is to play keep-away with Michael Turner when they have the ball on offense.

Run: Whatever chaos Tampa Bay endures this season, there’s a pretty good chance it won’t match the turmoil of 2009, when HC Raheem Morris canned then-OC Jeff Jagodzinski just over a week before the start of the season. While little good came out of that switch or the Bucs’ 2009 season, one bright spot was the play of Cadillac Williams, who managed to post over 1,000 total yards with a passing offense that scared no one and an offensive line that appeared just about as confused as the front office. Long story short, improvement should be expected if Williams can stay healthy – always a big if. The 2010 campaign should get off to a decent start as the Bucs host a below-average run defense in the Browns before flying to Carolina in Week 2 to face the worst projected rush defense in the league. In order to be relevant in fantasy over the first third of the season, Williams (and possibly Ward and/or Huggins) will need to post decent fantasy RB2 in those contests because they are not likely to do it against the Steelers (Week 3) or Bengals (Week 5). With a bye sandwiched in between those two games, that stretch of the schedule will make any Bucs’ back pretty much useless in fantasy until at least Week 6.

Assuming Williams is still healthy and starting to pull away from the pack in terms of touches, he may be useful against the Saints (Week 6) as the game plan figures to be run-heavy in that contest. The Bucs host the Rams the following week, which should be Williams’ best shot at a huge game up to this point of the season. Week 8 sees Tampa Bay visit Arizona for a date in which the Cards should be able to stifle the Bucs’ running game, but Week 9 at Atlanta presents another opportunity for Williams to build some momentum. Another green matchup awaits at home in Week 10 vs. Carolina, but three of the next four opponents should be too much for the Tampa Bay rushing attack. Williams faces a pair of neutral matchups just in time for the final two games of the fantasy playoff run with home games against Detroit and Seattle, which may enable owners to use him as a RB2 if their other RB options at that point of the season are injured or facing one of the more elite run-stopping defenses in the league in Weeks 15 or 16.

Pass: No matter how good the draft class, it is never a good sign when a pair of rookie WRs are likely candidates to start Week 1. While the hype surrounding Mike Williams has been incredible, the jury (figuratively speaking, but possibly literally speaking considering his checkered past) is still out on whether he will be able to handle success when it comes in the pros after getting into trouble on multiple occasions in college. Thus, the focus of the Bucs’ passing game for owners this fall should be Winslow and then Freeman, at least early on. The duo should fare well initially as they meet Winslow’s old team in Week 1, which could also signal Freeman’s coming-out party as well if he can take advantage of the matchup. Carolina’s Cover 2 defense will likely suppress the Bucs’ passing numbers in Week 2, but they had better get something going against the Browns or Panthers because the vaunted Steelers’ defense awaits in Week 3, which could leave Tampa Bay in state of disarray heading into its early bye week in Week 4.

As the Bucs resume play in Week 5, Freeman will be tested yet again by the pass defenses of the Bengals (superior depth and talent at CB) and Saints (heavy blitz team with improved depth in the secondary). It’s not until a Week 6 home game against St. Louis that Tampa Bay may face another opponent that it should feel good about matching up against across the board. Two more road games follow the Rams’ game and while neither the Falcons nor the Cardinals will be a shutdown pass defense, they may both have enough to contain the Bucs’ WRs. Following a home meeting against the Panthers in which I would expect the Bucs to try to run the ball all game long, the passing game will need to show its growth in Weeks 11 and 12 at San Francisco and Baltimore. Whereas the Niners will be a difficult matchup for every Bucs’ player, the Ravens may present Mike Williams with a shot at getting deep a time or two if the offensive line is capable of protecting Freeman long enough. After what should be two more challenging contests for the Bucs’ young passing game, Week 15 offers a “soft” matchup against the weak Lions’ CBs at home. Seattle (Week 16) may not be so easy; however, the game is at home and could easily be a showcase for a player like Benn, assuming he has staked his claim to a starting job by that point – as I expect him to do early in the season.

NFC WEST

Run: It’s taken some time, but Arizona has finally become the running team that HC Ken Whisenhunt envisioned when he arrived in 2007. How much of that transition was by choice and how much of it was born out of necessity may never be known, but the Cardinals do have the RBs necessary to pull it off. The offensive line is getting a facelift as well, so how quickly they gel will be instrumental in determining how quickly Wells and (to a lesser extent) Hightower can perform like top-end RB2s in fantasy. The schedule lends a hand by giving Arizona a pair of “soft” 4-3 defenses in the first two weeks of the season before ratcheting up the difficulty level several times over with what should be an improved Raiders’ run-stopping unit in Week 3. Assuming they can enjoy some level of success against Oakland – which should be the toughest run defense the Cards face in the first half of the fantasy slate, it bodes well for them against the average Chargers and Saints rush defenses in Weeks 4-5.

A road meeting at Qwest Field kicks off the post-bye schedule for Arizona – a game that will test the poise of an offense which should have found its identity by that point. An “easy” home date against the Bucs follows the trip to Seattle, however, it doesn’t figure to give the Cardinals a good look for a Week 9 showdown at the Metrodome vs. the elite run defense of the Vikings. The good news for Wells and Hightower – after the Minnesota contest – is that Arizona faces only two more red matchups the rest of the way. Two of the less difficult games over that stretch figure to be a rematch against Seattle at home (Week 10) and on the road vs. the porous run defense of the Chiefs (Week 11). Arizona must then attempt to solve the stout run defense of the Niners in Week 12 before getting another shot at the questionable Rams defense one week later. Having faced two 3-4 defenses in Weeks 11 and 12, the Broncos’ 3-4 defense shouldn’t offer too many surprises in Week 14. Even though the game in Week 15 is away from home, Wells and Hightower get a juicy matchup vs. a Carolina run defense that should get beat repeatedly in 2010. Despite what could be a build-up to a stellar end to the season, the fantasy season ends on a rather disappointing note when the Cards must face the final one of their three second-half red matchups – a home game vs. Dallas.

Pass: Not many passing attacks can withstand the loss of players like Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin and Arizona is no exception. However, the Cardinals already had a ready-made replacement for the latter in Doucet and may not experience as much of a drop-off when it goes three-wide as one might expect. The bigger issue is how great the decline is from Warner to Leinart, even though we must remember that Warner was unable to throw down the field for the majority of the 2009 season, so the playbook may actually be more open than it has been recently. As such, I’ll focus on the WRs today. Despite starting out the year with a pair of consecutive road games, the passing game should get off to a nice start against the average pass defenses of St. Louis and Atlanta before it must face one of the most difficult pass defenses it will face all season long in Week 3 at home vs. the Raiders. Even though the Chargers will be the first 3-4 defense the Cardinals will face this season, they will catch a break in that their own defense uses the same style kind of set and plays it every bit as well. Arizona returns to defenses that play the 4-3 in Week 5 when it must face the very capable, ball-hawking Saints’ team who may give up as many big plays as they create.

In all likelihood, Arizona will enjoy a fair amount of aerial success coming out of the bye as none of the next five opponents can reasonably match up to the trio of Fitzgerald, Breaston and Doucet. In fact, in Week 9 against Minnesota, it would not surprise me in the least if the Cards abandon the run early and throw the ball 40-50 times. The passing schedule counters with a fairly difficult run to close the season for the non-Fitzgerald receivers as the Niners, Broncos, Panthers and Cowboys either have deep CB corps, above-average pass rushes, a solid pass defense scheme or all of the above. Fitzgerald should be relatively unaffected by this run of opponents, but his overall numbers will take a hit due to the simple fact that he probably will not see 150+ targets again until Leinart establishes himself as an elite QB – if that ever happens.

Run: ESPN’s John Clayton called Jackson “a freak” (in a good way) earlier this offseason. With no capable backup and a rookie QB under center, he’ll need to be a freak to withstand the punishment he is almost certain to endure. If his body allows him to play 16 games for just the second time in his career, he’s a near-lock for 350+ carries. Fortunately for him, he trades in the defenses of the NFC North and AFC South for the NFC South and AFC West to go along with his usual six-game trek through his own division – annually one of the worst defensive divisions in the league. Once he gets by a home game vs. Arizona to open the season, Jackson will have a shot to lead the league in rushing by the time the Rams’ bye week rolls around in Week 9. Oakland (Week 2) and Washington (Week 3) will be plenty tough to run on, but Jackson’s heavy workload should ensure solid fantasy production in those contests. Then, starting in Week 4, the schedule really begins to open up for him, beginning with a home game vs. Seattle. In Weeks 5-8, Jackson faces a stretch of defenses, all of which I expect to be among the bottom ten in the league in terms of stopping the run.

The second half of Jackson’s fantasy schedule is a mixed bag with matchups against the tough run defense of the Niners (Weeks 10 and 16) bookending a pair of neutral and green matchups. To what degree he can succeed against Arizona and San Francisco will have a large impact on whether he can remain in the race for the rushing title and fantasy relevancy over the remainder of the season. The one saving grace of his fantasy playoff slate is that following a road game against the Saints in Week 14 in which he will be asked to singlehandedly keep the Rams in the game, Jackson will spend the next two weeks playing at home, where he was able to average over 125 total yards per game last season.

Pass: To be quite honest, I’m going to be very hard on Bradford and his fantasy outlook this season. There’s a decent chance he becomes a good QB in the league, but the Rams are defying conventional wisdom by drafting their “franchise” QB ahead of a true WR1, unless St. Louis considers Robinson to be that receiver. Thus, the line between a green and red matchup for the passing game as a whole figures to be pretty thin, as I feel I have demonstrated in the Rams’ projection above. As you can easily tell, I believe there are only three times this season where Bradford should even be considered as a viable alternative – and even that is a dicey proposition because in all three games the running game should take center stage. Therefore, let’s focus primarily on Robinson and Avery.

If Robinson can stay healthy for the first time in his NFL career, he has a fair shot at being a WR3 candidate in 12-team leagues. However, it is questionable whether he or Avery should be used prior to Week 4 because Arizona, Oakland and Washington all have the pass rush and CBs necessary to pressure Bradford. Seattle (Week 4) may be another team to add to that mix, but the Seahawks will not be a heavy blitzing team and will likely count on the rookie QB making mistakes on his own rather than rush him into doing so. Assuming the WR pair is still able to go in Week 5, Avery and Robinson should enjoy a modicum of success over the next three weeks with the porous pass defense of the Lions, the somewhat-overrated Chargers’ back four (Week 6) and the Bucs’ young pass rush (Week 7), although the Rams cannot take those last two games for granted as St. Louis’ offensive line will need to stonewall capable (if healthy) pass rushers such as San Diego’s Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips. Carolina’s Cover 2 defense is the final test before the bye, but look for a run-heavy game plan in that game. To be kind, the post-bye slate for Avery and Robinson is treacherous, so if there is an opportunity for fantasy owners to sell either player for something useful during the first half of the season, they would be well-advised to do so.

Run: If Gore can put together 16 starts for just the second time in his NFL career, this season could be truly special for the sixth-year RB. In fact, only one red matchup shows up on his running schedule in what appears to be the easiest slate by far for any fantasy RB in 2010. Of course, his health is the key to taking advantage of this opportunity. Because of this, I’ll point out the matchups that could give Gore trouble, but in all honesty, his eight green matchups should remain that way.

Prior to the Week 9 bye, Gore’s toughest opponents figure to be at Seattle (Week 1) – against a defense on the road that had his number, for the most part, until the teams’ first meeting last season – as well as Philadelphia and Oakland (Weeks 4-5). These two 4-3 defenses could fluster Gore for different reasons – the Eagles are a quick, blitzing defense that may have some success shooting the gaps while the Raiders are big enough up front to match the raw power of the Niners’ linemen. After that trio of games, the only remaining potential trouble spots could be in Weeks 12-13 on the road against Green Bay and Arizona – a pair of attacking 3-4 teams that will blitz but also have the stout defensive lines necessary to hold up. Otherwise, Gore owners should sit back and enjoy the ride while handcuffing Dixon to their stud RB because this is a fantasy schedule worth taking advantage of, especially with a RB of Gore’s caliber behind a mauling, physical run-blocking line.

Pass: With all the praise I heaped upon the running game’s schedule, it may come as a shock that San Francisco would even consider passing the ball in 2010. While the passing game’s slate is not quite as favorable, it still rates as one of the easier ones in the league – which is why fantasy owners should make a push to secure Davis as their starting TE, Crabtree as their WR2 or Smith as their backup QB. In fact, if owners can live with a bumpy six-week stretch to open the season, then it should be a fun ride for most of the rest of the year. Even though two green matchups appear in the first four contests, it is a bit disconcerting that three of the games will be on the road. A road game in Seattle figures to make communication a nightmare while a Week 2 home game vs. New Orleans will be interesting in that Smith will be forced to manage the ball game against the turnover machine that is the Saints’ defense.

After road games in Kansas City and Atlanta – games in which Davis should dominate – the Niners’ passing game will endure its toughest two-week stretch of the season in consecutive home games vs. Philadelphia and Oakland. Carolina and Denver both (Weeks 7-8) each have very capable CB play, but both will lack a consistent pass rush and may need to commit extra help up front to keep Gore somewhat in check. It’s easy to like what lies in store for San Francisco following the Week 9 bye as the second half of the schedule lines up questionable pass defense after questionable pass defense, with the exception of Green Bay in Week 13. It’s hard to imagine the pass defenses of the Rams (twice), Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks or Chargers will be able to contain both Crabtree and Davis for any amount of time. Perhaps the biggest treat for owners of Smith, Crabtree and/or Davis? A Week 16 rematch in the perfect conditions of the Edward Jones Dome against a Rams team that is definitely in transition.

Run: If there is a more confusing RB situation in the NFC, I’m not sure what it is. Jones must be some kind of standout in practice as he seems to have caught the eye of HC Pete Carroll and OC Jeremy Bates, just like he did with ex-HC Jim Mora, Jr. last year. It appears he will enter the season as the starter. The part that boggles the mind, however, is that Forsett and Washington give this rather ordinary offense two potentially explosive players. Whereas most teams would try to create a package of plays where both players could be on the field at the same time, Seattle appears content on relying on the “strength” of its numbers, making any Seahawks’ RB a risky fantasy play. Thus, I’ll only stick to the few matchups that I believe Seattle may have a chance to take advantage of, all the while hoping that Carroll and Bates understand that the depth chart should read Forsett, Washington and then Jones with the first two splitting most of the carries.

Although Week 3 in San Diego is a possible green matchup, the first one that Seattle should be able to exploit is on the road in St. Louis the following week. The Rams’ defense doesn’t figure to be all that great against any running offense, but I don’t feel it is particularly well-suited to defend zone-blocking and zone-running teams because they are not the most athletic front seven the league will ever see. After that, another truly positive matchup doesn’t come the Seahawks’ way until Weeks 12 and 13 against Kansas City and Carolina. While DC Romeo Crennel figures to have the Chiefs playing better against the run near the end of the season, Kansas City lacks the personnel up front to stop the run against all but the weakest rushing attacks in the league. The same sentiment could be echoed for the Panthers the following week. The final two weeks of the fantasy schedule could serve as a boon for owners of whichever back has emerged to lead this committee by the time the fantasy playoffs have begun. Neither Atlanta (Week 15) nor Tampa Bay (Week 16) figure to be any better than average vs. the run, meaning either Forsett or Washington could emerge as this season’s Jerome Harrison if injury strikes the other speed back.

Pass: As much fun as the Seahawks’ running game was to break down, the passing game isn’t all that much better. Houshmandzadeh is the very definition of a possession receiver while Tate has a chance to be a good downfield threat someday. However, the key to Seattle’s offensive hopes in the passing attack this season rest on the shoulders of Hasselbeck and Carlson. That QB-to-TE combination may have a difficult time getting started this season because San Francisco and Denver each have the back seven necessary to shut it down. Each team also has CBs good enough to bottle up Houshmandzeh and whatever receiver Carroll or Bates decides to start opposite him. San Diego (Week 3) will be the third straight 3-4 defense Seattle will see to open the campaign, but represents the least difficult matchup the Seahawks will have faced up to that point. With the Chargers’ recent inability to defend the TE, expect great numbers from Carlson. In Week 4, Seattle hits the road to visit a Rams’ defense that it should be able to sustain some momentum against, whether Hasselbeck eyes Carlson or Houshmandzadeh in that matchup would appear to be the toughest question to answer.

Assuming the Bears’ defense is still healthy after Seattle’s Week 5 bye, the Seahawks may revisit their offensive ineffectiveness of 2009 for the next several weeks as the most neutral matchup between Weeks 6-11 would be a pair of contests against the Cardinals – a team whose blitzing style will severely test Seattle’s transitioning offensive line. With every team over that six-week period being so aggressive with their blitz packages, Hasselbeck is a poor bet to stay healthy during this period of time. The slate eases up for a short spell with home games against the Chiefs and Panthers, but goes right back to a Niners’ defense that will bring the heat in Week 14. Assuming there are still some owners who relied on any 2010 Seahawks’ player alive in their fantasy playoff chase, Weeks 15 and 16 may offer some degree of comfort. Whereas Houshmandzadeh may have a bit of trouble against the likes of Falcons’ CB Dunta Robinson and the Bucs’ duo of Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber, Carlson should dominate.

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