| Road to the Super Bowl
 2/2/12
 
 Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising 
              to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams' 
              inability to close the deal or not quite ready to hang up your owner's 
              hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football may be just the thing you 
              need to end this season right.
 I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't 
                appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but 
                that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most 
                profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season 
                even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience 
                with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph 
                you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season 
                on a definite high note. After winning one of my playoff money leagues last season, I’m 
                ready for another shot at the dough. In addition to owning one 
                NFL.com team, I will be taking part in several money leagues with 
                Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks will 
                be to help each of you through your decision-making process as 
                you attempt to boost your bottom line.  NFL.com
 For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points 
                for your team, click on this 
                link. However, much of the content immediately below is included 
                on the “How to Play” page, so what I provide here 
                should be more than enough to follow along easily.
 The object of the game is to pick the players you think will 
                perform best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs, 
                two WRs, one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points 
                based on their on-field performance during their game, and if 
                your player's team wins, you will have the option to carry that 
                player over to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point 
                modifier to his score. For example, if you pick Eli Manning in the Wild Card round 
                and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Super Bowl, 
                and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional 
                round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into 
                the Conference Championship round for 3x the points, and if the 
                Saints make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition, 
                a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even 
                if their team has a bye into the Super Bowl. In 
                this case, the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card 
                round, but would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the Conference 
                Championships, since the player was on the team’s roster 
                for two weekly scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers 
                would also apply as long as that player’s team continued 
                in the NFL Playoffs.
 
                 
                  | 
                       
                        | NFL.com Scoring System |   
                        | Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) | Fantasy Points |   
                        | Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: | 6 fantasy points |   
                        | Passing Touchdown: | 4 fantasy points |   
                        | Field Goal: | 3 fantasy points |   
                        | Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point 
                          Conversion: | 2 fantasy points |   
                        | Rushing or Receiving: | 1 fantasy point per 10 yards |   
                        | Passing: | 1 fantasy point per 25 yards |   
                        | Extra Point: | 1 fantasy point |   
                        | Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |  |   
                        | Punt Returned Touchdown: | 6 fantasy points |   
                        | Kickoff Returned Touchdown: | 6 fantasy points |   
                        | Fumble Returned Touchdown: | 6 fantasy points |   
                        | Interception Returned Touchdown: | 6 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 0 Points: | 10 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 2-6 Points: | 7 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 7-13 Points: | 4 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 14-17 Points: | 1 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 18-21 Points: | 0 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 22-27 Points: | -1 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 28-34 Points: | -4 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 35-45 Points: | -7 fantasy points |   
                        | Allowing 46+ Points: | -10 fantasy points |   
                        | Team Win: | 5 fantasy points |   
                        | Interception: | 2 fantasy points |   
                        | Fumble Recovery: | 2 fantasy points |   
                        | Blocked Punt: | 2 fantasy points |   
                        | Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra 
                          Point: | 2 fantasy points |   
                        | Safety: | 2 fantasy points |   
                        | Sack: | 1 fantasy points |  |  Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the 
                rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs 
                are four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here 
                than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) 
                all field goals are worth three points, which means we are more 
                concerned about volume of field goals than distance; 3) this is 
                a non-PPR format, which obviously favors the big-play threats; 
                and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a “winning” 
                defense is worth almost a touchdown and could be worth as much 
                as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this week and that team 
                ends up winning the Super Bowl. Given the bonus point modifier mentioned above, I could understand 
                an owner making the decision to pass on selecting a defense this 
                week and electing to get twice as many points from a defense such 
                as the Ravens in the Super Bowl. (I’m not saying I 
                would do that, just suggesting that it is a strategy to consider.) Here are the most worthy candidates by position: QBsTom Brady/Eli Manning
 RBsBenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs
 WRsWes Welker/Deion Branch/Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz
 TEsAaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski/Jake Ballard
 KsStephen Gostkowski/Lawrence Tynes
 DSTPatriots/Giants
 QB: Eli 
                Manning (x2). This decision was made last week. Obviously, 
                if this were a fantasy draft in August, Brady would be the choice. 
                But despite the improvement New England has made on the defensive 
                side of the ball through two playoff games, let’s remember 
                that the Patriots haven’t exactly played against a quarterback 
                the caliber of Eli Manning since, well, about the last time these 
                teams met in Week 9. While the safety combination of Devin McCourty 
                and Pat Chung is bringing a bit of stability to the secondary, 
                I can’t imagine that New England will enjoy a great deal 
                of success pressuring Manning or be able to cover all three of 
                the Giants’ main receivers for very long. On the other hand, 
                Brady will have to deal with something he really hasn’t 
                to face much all season long – consistent pressure from 
                a four-man rush. New York hasn’t really been full strength 
                in its secondary all season long, but I feel as if they are playing 
                about as well as they are going to play. With only Wes Welker 
                to worry about at receiver and Rob Gronkowski playing on an injured 
                ankle, perhaps DC Perry Fewell will get a bit creative and put 
                a CB on Aaron Hernandez, double Welker and shadow Gronkowski with 
                LB Michael Boley or S Antrel Rolle all game long. RB: Ahmad 
                Bradshaw (x2) and BenJarvus 
                Green-Ellis (x1). I think it is safe to say that New York 
                has been preparing for life after Brandon Jacobs for a while now. 
                Over his last five games, Bradshaw has received at least 15 touches 
                each time while Jacobs’ role has been minimized significantly 
                (less than 10 touches in four of those same five games). So since 
                it appears Bradshaw is a no-brainer selection here, which power 
                back should get the nod – Jacobs or Green-Ellis? Let’s face it, 
                neither option seems all that appealing to me in a game that should 
                be all about the passing attacks for both teams. Sure, Green-Ellis 
                is still his team’s top RB option, but when he isn’t getting vultured 
                by his QB at the goal line, he’s running off the field as Danny 
                Woodhead or Aaron Hernandez steal touches from him. However, his 
                expected 10-12 touches sure seem more appealing to me than Jacobs’ 
                likely workload, so I’ll opt for the “Law Firm” and take what 
                I can get. I’d be stunned if either back reaches 60 rushing yards 
                and a TD. WR: Hakeem 
                Nicks (x2) and Victor 
                Cruz (x1). The obvious choices would be to take the WR1s from 
                both teams. However, I’m a big believer in chasing the players 
                most likely to score touchdowns in a non-PPR format. I’m also 
                not buying that a less-than-100% Rob Gronkowski makes Wes Welker 
                a better bet to visit the end zone. (On that note, please find 
                me the last time Welker ran anything besides a drag route on one 
                of his short red-zone scores…) Nicks missed the first game against 
                the Pats due to injury, which allowed Cruz to continue his storybook 
                season with a six-catch, 91-yard day. Assuming his shoulder continues 
                to feel better than it did during the off week, Nicks should have 
                every chance to return to his dominant numbers from the Giants’ 
                first two playoff games. As for Cruz, let it be known that when 
                he faced his most difficult defensive back of New York’s playoff 
                run so far, Carlos Rogers, he burned him. Of course, that is only 
                half the story since Cruz was completely shut out after the first 
                30 minutes once San Francisco put physical rookie CB Chris Culliver 
                on him with safety help over the top. Because I expect the Pats’ 
                defense to play a lot of zone this week, this game sets up well 
                for the aforementioned Giants’ receivers who can find the voids 
                and sit down in those spots. Most people would probably suggest 
                it is a bold move to believe Cruz will outscore Welker in fantasy, 
                but with Gronkowski likely only requiring single coverage this 
                week, New York may be tempted to double Welker. TE: Rob 
                Gronkowski (x1). This decision will go right down to game 
                time. The safe play would be to take Hernandez’s single-game points 
                as opposed to hoping Brady will target Gronk 3-5 times in the 
                red zone despite his injury just because he is such a size mismatch. 
                Jake Ballard is also expected to play a much bigger role in this 
                contest – according to HC Tom Coughlin – now that he has recovered 
                from his lingering knee injury. One could easily make the argument 
                that both Hernandez and Ballard are both better plays than my 
                current choice, but I could also see Gronk catch three balls for 
                50 yards and two scores. We should have a pretty good idea where 
                Gronkowski is physically during pregame warmups, so I reserve 
                the right to make my final judgment at that point. K: Lawrence Tynes (x2). Not too much to debate here. I decided 
                last week that I preferred Tynes – who I considered a safer 
                bet to advance – over the other three options and will stick 
                with that choice here. I could easily see this game turn into 
                a six-kick day (three XPs, three FGs) for Tynes or Gostkowski, 
                but I feel that if one offense will struggle to score in this 
                game, it will be New England. Now those relative struggles may 
                result in a high number of field-goal opportunities for Gostkowski, 
                but Tynes is every bit as likely to be that kicker, so I’ll 
                take his 2x option and run with it. DST: New 
                York Giants (x2). This selection, besides the fact that I 
                have the 2x option already locked in with the Giants, rests on 
                the belief that if one defense will be forcing the action this 
                Sunday, it will not be New England. While the Patriots should 
                enjoy relatively good success stopping the run, I expect they 
                will play zone for the majority of the day and will not blitz 
                all that often. That is a bad combination for fantasy defensive 
                team success considering New York’s offensive line is blocking 
                as well as it has all season and Manning isn’t throwing many interceptions 
                these days. Conversely, the Giants should get a steady rush from 
                their four linemen and are much more likely to force a turnover. 
                All in all, I don’t expect more than 1-2 turnovers in this game, 
                but believe New York is much more likely to force a critical mistake 
                or create a strip-sack that results in a defensive score. Fearless predictions for my selected team:Manning: 280 passing yards, two passing TDs (19x2 = 38 points)
 Bradshaw: 85 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards (11x2 = 22 points)
 Green-Ellis: 55 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 5 receiving yards 
                (11 points)
 Nicks: 90 receiving yards, one receiving TD (15x2 = 30 points)
 Cruz: 125 receiving yards, one receiving TD (18 points)
 Gronkowski: 40 receiving yards, one receiving TD (10x2 = 20 points)
 Tynes: three extra points, two field goals (9x2 = 18 points)
 Giants DST: 20 PA, two sacks, one turnover and a team win (9x2 
                = 18 points)
 Projected Total: 175 fantasy points Week 1 Total: 80Week 2 Total: 243
 Week 3 Total: 97
  Fearless Super Bowl prediction: Giants 
                27, Patriots 20
  Fuzzy’s Many of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well. 
                The key differences are as follows: no bonus point modifiers (including 
                team-win points). More fantasy points are awarded to kickers who 
                kick long field goals, PPR scoring is used and all TDs are worth 
                six points. In short, your goal is to pick the highest-scoring 
                lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each 
                owner is asked to select a tiebreaker each week which will be 
                used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues 
                contain no more than 50 teams whereas most other major sites employ 
                a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the 
                entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least 
                - recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving 
                a nice return on investment for their troubles. Follow this 
                link for a complete list of the rules. Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 
                1 Defense/Special Teams Since I will be playing with several teams with Fuzzy’s 
                this season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present 
                a brief overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how 
                strongly I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the 
                same lineup in more than one league, but in general, I believe 
                in “diversifying my portfolio” in the postseason as 
                well.
 
                 
                  | 
                       
                        | Fuzzy Portfolio - 
                          Conference Championships |   
                        |  | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 | Team 4 |   
                        | QB | Manning | Brady | Brady | Brady |   
                        | RB | Rice | Rice | Rice | Rice |   
                        | RB | Bradshaw | Bradshaw | Bradshaw | Bradshaw |   
                        | WR | Boldin | Nicks | Boldin | Boldin |   
                        | WR | Nicks | Smith | Nicks | Nicks |   
                        | WR | Welker | Welker | Welker | Welker |   
                        | TE | Gronkowski | Gronkowski | Gronkowski | Gronkowski |   
                        | K | Akers | Akers | Akers | Akers |   
                        | DST | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants |   
                        | Tie | Brady | Manning | Manning | Manning |   
                        | WW Pt Tot | 152.8 | 147.8 | 152.3 | 152.8 |   
                        | DR Pt Tot | 159.3 | 178.9 | 165.9 | 161.0 |   
                        | CC Pt Tot | 116.6 | 104.9 | 103.8 | 103.8 |  |  There’s not really much to say this week that hasn’t 
                been said in my previous “Road to the Super Bowl” 
                columns. I will not place in any of my four leagues based primarily 
                on two decisions – not playing Calvin Johnson in the wildcard 
                round and Gronkowski the following week. I suppose it is an appropriate 
                ending to my least successful fantasy season in some time. (Ironically, 
                despite the fact that I struggled with a number of my teams this 
                year, 2011 was also my most profitable season because I was able 
                to claim the title in the biggest money league I’ve ever 
                played in.)
 
                 
                  | 
                       
                        | Fuzzy Portfolio - 
                          Super Bowl |   
                        |  | Team 1 | Team 2 | Team 3 | Team 4 |   
                        | QB | Manning | Manning | Brady | Manning |   
                        | RB | Bradshaw | Bradshaw | Bradshaw | Bradshaw |   
                        | RB | Green-Ellis | Green-Ellis | Green-Ellis | Green-Ellis |   
                        | WR | Cruz | Cruz | Cruz | Cruz |   
                        | WR | Nicks | Nicks | Nicks | Nicks |   
                        | WR | Welker | Welker | Welker | Welker |   
                        | TE | Hernandez | Hernandez | Hernandez | Hernandez |   
                        | K | Gostkowski | Tynes | Gostkowski | Tynes |   
                        | DST | Giants | Giants | Giants | Giants |   
                        | Tie | Brady | Brady | Manning | Brady |  |  The choice at QB pretty much comes down to yards vs. touchdowns. 
                I’d be willing to bet Brady will throw for the most yards 
                while Manning strikes me as the player most likely to throw for 
                three scores. I believe I spelled out the argument for each QB 
                in the NFL.com section, but tend to believe the lack of a healthy 
                Gronkowski tilts the scale in favor of Manning this week.  The fact that Fuzzy’s uses PPR scoring in its playoff leagues 
                makes Woodhead a usable option – albeit weak one – 
                and adds to what most would believe would be a three-horse race 
                between Bradshaw, Green-Ellis and Jacobs. As I hinted earlier, 
                Jacobs’ diminishing workload makes me even more skeptical 
                about using him than I usually am. Additionally, New England’s 
                defense offers much more resistance against the run than it does 
                against the pass, which locks in Bradshaw and Green-Ellis as the 
                starters in each of my four leagues, at least in my mind anyway. At WR, there are three clear-cut choices (Cruz, Nicks and Welker). 
                Each player is more than capable of posting 20+ fantasy points 
                in this contest, something that cannot be said with a great deal 
                of confidence about the other two realistic options in Manningham 
                and Branch. Manningham actually stands a decent chance of scoring 
                a touchdown in this contest with so much attention focused on 
                Nicks and Cruz, but he has become a clear third option in the 
                Giants’ passing game, running more clear-out routes than 
                anything else these days. Branch may get a nice bump in targets 
                with Gronkowski being limited, but his upside is still extremely 
                limited. With Manningham and Branch both unlikely to see more 
                than five targets, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to use 
                either player when each member of my selected trio may hit double 
                digits in that category. Factor in the fact that both teams lack 
                a shutdown CB and you have the recipe for healthy totals from 
                Cruz, Nicks and Welker. As I already stated in the NFL.com section, my decision to use 
                Gronkowski (or not) will go right down to game time. In all likelihood, 
                however, I’ll simply use Hernandez, who will need to have 
                a huge game if the Patriots are going to eclipse the magic 24-point 
                barrier that I think they’ll need to win this game. I also 
                expect Ballard to be more than useful in this contest, but he 
                doesn’t possess 8-10 catch upside like Hernandez does. My selection at kicker isn’t complicated, especially since 
                I cannot say with any certainty that one kicker is a better bet 
                to post a 15+ point game than the other one is. As a result, I’ll 
                play the odds and use Tynes in two leagues and Gostkowski in the 
                other two. As for my defensive pick, I don’t expect a high 
                number of sacks or turnovers from either offense, but if one defense 
                is going to impose its will on the other offense in this game, 
                I expect it to be the Giants’ defense. 
 Suggestions, comments, musings about the article 
                or fantasy football in general? E-mail 
                me. 
 Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared 
                in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each 
                of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football 
                analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season. 
                He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. 
                You can also follow him 
                on Twitter.
 |