Road to the Super Bowl
2/2/12
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising
to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams'
inability to close the deal or not quite ready to hang up your owner's
hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football may be just the thing you
need to end this season right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
After winning one of my playoff money leagues last season, I’m
ready for another shot at the dough. In addition to owning one
NFL.com team, I will be taking part in several money leagues with
Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks will
be to help each of you through your decision-making process as
you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on this
link. However, much of the content immediately below is included
on the “How to Play” page, so what I provide here
should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The object of the game is to pick the players you think will
perform best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs,
two WRs, one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points
based on their on-field performance during their game, and if
your player's team wins, you will have the option to carry that
player over to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point
modifier to his score.
For example, if you pick Eli Manning in the Wild Card round
and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Super Bowl,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points, and if the
Saints make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Super Bowl. In
this case, the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card
round, but would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the Conference
Championships, since the player was on the team’s roster
for two weekly scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers
would also apply as long as that player’s team continued
in the NFL Playoffs.
NFL.com Scoring System |
Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) |
Fantasy Points |
Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Passing Touchdown: |
4 fantasy points |
Field Goal: |
3 fantasy points |
Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion: |
2 fantasy points |
Rushing or Receiving: |
1 fantasy point per 10 yards |
Passing: |
1 fantasy point per 25 yards |
Extra Point: |
1 fantasy point |
Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |
|
Punt Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Kickoff Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Fumble Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Interception Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Allowing 0 Points: |
10 fantasy points |
Allowing 2-6 Points: |
7 fantasy points |
Allowing 7-13 Points: |
4 fantasy points |
Allowing 14-17 Points: |
1 fantasy points |
Allowing 18-21 Points: |
0 fantasy points |
Allowing 22-27 Points: |
-1 fantasy points |
Allowing 28-34 Points: |
-4 fantasy points |
Allowing 35-45 Points: |
-7 fantasy points |
Allowing 46+ Points: |
-10 fantasy points |
Team Win: |
5 fantasy points |
Interception: |
2 fantasy points |
Fumble Recovery: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Punt: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point: |
2 fantasy points |
Safety: |
2 fantasy points |
Sack: |
1 fantasy points |
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Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here
than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2)
all field goals are worth three points, which means we are more
concerned about volume of field goals than distance; 3) this is
a non-PPR format, which obviously favors the big-play threats;
and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a “winning”
defense is worth almost a touchdown and could be worth as much
as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this week and that team
ends up winning the Super Bowl.
Given the bonus point modifier mentioned above, I could understand
an owner making the decision to pass on selecting a defense this
week and electing to get twice as many points from a defense such
as the Ravens in the Super Bowl. (I’m not saying I
would do that, just suggesting that it is a strategy to consider.)
Here are the most worthy candidates by position:
QBs
Tom Brady/Eli Manning
RBs
BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs
WRs
Wes Welker/Deion Branch/Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz
TEs
Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski/Jake Ballard
Ks
Stephen Gostkowski/Lawrence Tynes
DST
Patriots/Giants
QB: Eli
Manning (x2). This decision was made last week. Obviously,
if this were a fantasy draft in August, Brady would be the choice.
But despite the improvement New England has made on the defensive
side of the ball through two playoff games, let’s remember
that the Patriots haven’t exactly played against a quarterback
the caliber of Eli Manning since, well, about the last time these
teams met in Week 9. While the safety combination of Devin McCourty
and Pat Chung is bringing a bit of stability to the secondary,
I can’t imagine that New England will enjoy a great deal
of success pressuring Manning or be able to cover all three of
the Giants’ main receivers for very long. On the other hand,
Brady will have to deal with something he really hasn’t
to face much all season long – consistent pressure from
a four-man rush. New York hasn’t really been full strength
in its secondary all season long, but I feel as if they are playing
about as well as they are going to play. With only Wes Welker
to worry about at receiver and Rob Gronkowski playing on an injured
ankle, perhaps DC Perry Fewell will get a bit creative and put
a CB on Aaron Hernandez, double Welker and shadow Gronkowski with
LB Michael Boley or S Antrel Rolle all game long.
RB: Ahmad
Bradshaw (x2) and BenJarvus
Green-Ellis (x1). I think it is safe to say that New York
has been preparing for life after Brandon Jacobs for a while now.
Over his last five games, Bradshaw has received at least 15 touches
each time while Jacobs’ role has been minimized significantly
(less than 10 touches in four of those same five games). So since
it appears Bradshaw is a no-brainer selection here, which power
back should get the nod – Jacobs or Green-Ellis? Let’s face it,
neither option seems all that appealing to me in a game that should
be all about the passing attacks for both teams. Sure, Green-Ellis
is still his team’s top RB option, but when he isn’t getting vultured
by his QB at the goal line, he’s running off the field as Danny
Woodhead or Aaron Hernandez steal touches from him. However, his
expected 10-12 touches sure seem more appealing to me than Jacobs’
likely workload, so I’ll opt for the “Law Firm” and take what
I can get. I’d be stunned if either back reaches 60 rushing yards
and a TD.
WR: Hakeem
Nicks (x2) and Victor
Cruz (x1). The obvious choices would be to take the WR1s from
both teams. However, I’m a big believer in chasing the players
most likely to score touchdowns in a non-PPR format. I’m also
not buying that a less-than-100% Rob Gronkowski makes Wes Welker
a better bet to visit the end zone. (On that note, please find
me the last time Welker ran anything besides a drag route on one
of his short red-zone scores…) Nicks missed the first game against
the Pats due to injury, which allowed Cruz to continue his storybook
season with a six-catch, 91-yard day. Assuming his shoulder continues
to feel better than it did during the off week, Nicks should have
every chance to return to his dominant numbers from the Giants’
first two playoff games. As for Cruz, let it be known that when
he faced his most difficult defensive back of New York’s playoff
run so far, Carlos Rogers, he burned him. Of course, that is only
half the story since Cruz was completely shut out after the first
30 minutes once San Francisco put physical rookie CB Chris Culliver
on him with safety help over the top. Because I expect the Pats’
defense to play a lot of zone this week, this game sets up well
for the aforementioned Giants’ receivers who can find the voids
and sit down in those spots. Most people would probably suggest
it is a bold move to believe Cruz will outscore Welker in fantasy,
but with Gronkowski likely only requiring single coverage this
week, New York may be tempted to double Welker.
TE: Rob
Gronkowski (x1). This decision will go right down to game
time. The safe play would be to take Hernandez’s single-game points
as opposed to hoping Brady will target Gronk 3-5 times in the
red zone despite his injury just because he is such a size mismatch.
Jake Ballard is also expected to play a much bigger role in this
contest – according to HC Tom Coughlin – now that he has recovered
from his lingering knee injury. One could easily make the argument
that both Hernandez and Ballard are both better plays than my
current choice, but I could also see Gronk catch three balls for
50 yards and two scores. We should have a pretty good idea where
Gronkowski is physically during pregame warmups, so I reserve
the right to make my final judgment at that point.
K: Lawrence Tynes (x2). Not too much to debate here. I decided
last week that I preferred Tynes – who I considered a safer
bet to advance – over the other three options and will stick
with that choice here. I could easily see this game turn into
a six-kick day (three XPs, three FGs) for Tynes or Gostkowski,
but I feel that if one offense will struggle to score in this
game, it will be New England. Now those relative struggles may
result in a high number of field-goal opportunities for Gostkowski,
but Tynes is every bit as likely to be that kicker, so I’ll
take his 2x option and run with it.
DST: New
York Giants (x2). This selection, besides the fact that I
have the 2x option already locked in with the Giants, rests on
the belief that if one defense will be forcing the action this
Sunday, it will not be New England. While the Patriots should
enjoy relatively good success stopping the run, I expect they
will play zone for the majority of the day and will not blitz
all that often. That is a bad combination for fantasy defensive
team success considering New York’s offensive line is blocking
as well as it has all season and Manning isn’t throwing many interceptions
these days. Conversely, the Giants should get a steady rush from
their four linemen and are much more likely to force a turnover.
All in all, I don’t expect more than 1-2 turnovers in this game,
but believe New York is much more likely to force a critical mistake
or create a strip-sack that results in a defensive score.
Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Manning: 280 passing yards, two passing TDs (19x2 = 38 points)
Bradshaw: 85 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards (11x2 = 22 points)
Green-Ellis: 55 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 5 receiving yards
(11 points)
Nicks: 90 receiving yards, one receiving TD (15x2 = 30 points)
Cruz: 125 receiving yards, one receiving TD (18 points)
Gronkowski: 40 receiving yards, one receiving TD (10x2 = 20 points)
Tynes: three extra points, two field goals (9x2 = 18 points)
Giants DST: 20 PA, two sacks, one turnover and a team win (9x2
= 18 points)
Projected Total: 175 fantasy points
Week 1 Total: 80
Week 2 Total: 243
Week 3 Total: 97
Fearless Super Bowl prediction: Giants
27, Patriots 20
Fuzzy’s
Many of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well.
The key differences are as follows: no bonus point modifiers (including
team-win points). More fantasy points are awarded to kickers who
kick long field goals, PPR scoring is used and all TDs are worth
six points. In short, your goal is to pick the highest-scoring
lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each
owner is asked to select a tiebreaker each week which will be
used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues
contain no more than 50 teams whereas most other major sites employ
a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the
entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least
- recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving
a nice return on investment for their troubles. Follow this
link for a complete list of the rules.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K,
1 Defense/Special Teams
Since I will be playing with several teams with Fuzzy’s
this season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present
a brief overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how
strongly I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the
same lineup in more than one league, but in general, I believe
in “diversifying my portfolio” in the postseason as
well.
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Conference Championships |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
QB |
Manning |
Brady |
Brady |
Brady |
RB |
Rice |
Rice |
Rice |
Rice |
RB |
Bradshaw |
Bradshaw |
Bradshaw |
Bradshaw |
WR |
Boldin |
Nicks |
Boldin |
Boldin |
WR |
Nicks |
Smith |
Nicks |
Nicks |
WR |
Welker |
Welker |
Welker |
Welker |
TE |
Gronkowski |
Gronkowski |
Gronkowski |
Gronkowski |
K |
Akers |
Akers |
Akers |
Akers |
DST |
Giants |
Giants |
Giants |
Giants |
Tie |
Brady |
Manning |
Manning |
Manning |
WW Pt Tot |
152.8 |
147.8 |
152.3 |
152.8 |
DR Pt Tot |
159.3 |
178.9 |
165.9 |
161.0 |
CC Pt Tot |
116.6 |
104.9 |
103.8 |
103.8 |
|
There’s not really much to say this week that hasn’t
been said in my previous “Road to the Super Bowl”
columns. I will not place in any of my four leagues based primarily
on two decisions – not playing Calvin Johnson in the wildcard
round and Gronkowski the following week. I suppose it is an appropriate
ending to my least successful fantasy season in some time. (Ironically,
despite the fact that I struggled with a number of my teams this
year, 2011 was also my most profitable season because I was able
to claim the title in the biggest money league I’ve ever
played in.)
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Super Bowl |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
QB |
Manning |
Manning |
Brady |
Manning |
RB |
Bradshaw |
Bradshaw |
Bradshaw |
Bradshaw |
RB |
Green-Ellis |
Green-Ellis |
Green-Ellis |
Green-Ellis |
WR |
Cruz |
Cruz |
Cruz |
Cruz |
WR |
Nicks |
Nicks |
Nicks |
Nicks |
WR |
Welker |
Welker |
Welker |
Welker |
TE |
Hernandez |
Hernandez |
Hernandez |
Hernandez |
K |
Gostkowski |
Tynes |
Gostkowski |
Tynes |
DST |
Giants |
Giants |
Giants |
Giants |
Tie |
Brady |
Brady |
Manning |
Brady |
|
The choice at QB pretty much comes down to yards vs. touchdowns.
I’d be willing to bet Brady will throw for the most yards
while Manning strikes me as the player most likely to throw for
three scores. I believe I spelled out the argument for each QB
in the NFL.com section, but tend to believe the lack of a healthy
Gronkowski tilts the scale in favor of Manning this week.
The fact that Fuzzy’s uses PPR scoring in its playoff leagues
makes Woodhead a usable option – albeit weak one –
and adds to what most would believe would be a three-horse race
between Bradshaw, Green-Ellis and Jacobs. As I hinted earlier,
Jacobs’ diminishing workload makes me even more skeptical
about using him than I usually am. Additionally, New England’s
defense offers much more resistance against the run than it does
against the pass, which locks in Bradshaw and Green-Ellis as the
starters in each of my four leagues, at least in my mind anyway.
At WR, there are three clear-cut choices (Cruz, Nicks and Welker).
Each player is more than capable of posting 20+ fantasy points
in this contest, something that cannot be said with a great deal
of confidence about the other two realistic options in Manningham
and Branch. Manningham actually stands a decent chance of scoring
a touchdown in this contest with so much attention focused on
Nicks and Cruz, but he has become a clear third option in the
Giants’ passing game, running more clear-out routes than
anything else these days. Branch may get a nice bump in targets
with Gronkowski being limited, but his upside is still extremely
limited. With Manningham and Branch both unlikely to see more
than five targets, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to use
either player when each member of my selected trio may hit double
digits in that category. Factor in the fact that both teams lack
a shutdown CB and you have the recipe for healthy totals from
Cruz, Nicks and Welker.
As I already stated in the NFL.com section, my decision to use
Gronkowski (or not) will go right down to game time. In all likelihood,
however, I’ll simply use Hernandez, who will need to have
a huge game if the Patriots are going to eclipse the magic 24-point
barrier that I think they’ll need to win this game. I also
expect Ballard to be more than useful in this contest, but he
doesn’t possess 8-10 catch upside like Hernandez does.
My selection at kicker isn’t complicated, especially since
I cannot say with any certainty that one kicker is a better bet
to post a 15+ point game than the other one is. As a result, I’ll
play the odds and use Tynes in two leagues and Gostkowski in the
other two. As for my defensive pick, I don’t expect a high
number of sacks or turnovers from either offense, but if one defense
is going to impose its will on the other offense in this game,
I expect it to be the Giants’ defense.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each
of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football
analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season.
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
You can also follow him
on Twitter.
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