As I have for the past six-plus years, I will continue sharing my
thoughts on my NFL.com Playoff Challenge entry and playoff money
leagues with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football as we head into the second
week of postseason odyssey. Let’s get right to it:
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules
& Prizing” link on the NFL.com entry page. Much
of the content immediately below is included on the “How
to Play” page, although the information I provide below
should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Aaron Rodgers in the Wild Card round
and the Packers win, you can carry him over to the Divisional
Round, and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If Green Bay wins again, you can carry Rodgers into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points and, if the
Packers make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Conference Championships. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card round, but
be eligible to earn 2x points in the Conference Championships, since the
player was on the team’s roster for two weekly scoring periods.
Further bonus point modifiers would also apply as long as that
player’s team continues to advance in the NFL Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs are worth
four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here than in
the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) all field
goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which means we are
more concerned about volume of field goals than distance –
unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from 50-plus
(DraftKings does not use kickers); 3) this is a non-PPR format,
which obviously favors the big-play threats (both Fuzzy's and DraftKings
are PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a “winning”
defense is worth almost a touchdown.
It turns out I should have gambled on predictability in this challenge after
all. Both No. 1 and 2 seeds made it to the Final Four, one season
after both No. 1 seeds made it to the Super Bowl (marking the
11th time that happened since the playoff format began basing
home field advantage on teams’ regular season winning percentages
in 1975). Moving on, here are my thoughts in regards to the NFL
Playoff Challenge for Conference Championship week:
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton/Tom Brady/Carson Palmer
The call: Carson
Palmer (3x). No change here. While I am perfectly happy with
the 21 fantasy points (and 42 overall thanks to the 2x multiplier)
Palmer scored last week, I was less than thrilled about how unsettled
he looked in doing so. Not only were both of Palmer's interceptions
bad decisions and bad throws, but his second touchdown pass to
Michael Floyd in the fourth quarter could have easily been picked
off as well. I'm willing to buy into the notion that he was putting
a bit too much pressure on himself in order to get his first playoff
win, but that alone doesn't excuse the fact he could have thrown
four or five interceptions. Carolina's pass rush should be about
as effective as Green Bay's was last weekend, but the Panthers'
back end (especially CB Robert McClain) figures to get exposed
in the same way it did in the second half against Seattle by a
group of receivers much more accomplished and talented than the
Seahawks used during their second-half comeback attempt.
Running Backs
James White should be featured in the Pats
gameplan.
Jonathan Stewart/James White/David Johnson
The call: David
Johnson (3x) and James
White. Johnson remains a no-brainer, so the choice for
the second spot comes down to Stewart, White, C.J. Anderson and
Ronnie Hillman. Since I am now predicting an Arizona-New England
Super Bowl, it doesn't make much sense to insert any Panthers
or Broncos into my lineup even though I'm fairly certain White
has the lowest floor of the four other candidates. New England
has already shown it has little interest in relying on a ground
game against teams that can stop it like the Chiefs (last week)
and Broncos (Week 12). White appeared to take over as the main
passing-down back for the Patriots following their Week 12 loss
in Denver, which yielded 96 receptions to running backs this season
and a 4-84-1 receiving line to Brandon Bolden in the first meeting.
It would be mildly shocking if White (and possibly even Bolden
to a lesser extent) did not factor heavily into this week's offensive
game plan.
Wide Receivers
Julian Edelman/Ted Ginn/Larry Fitzgerald/Michael Floyd/John Brown
The call: Michael
Floyd (3x) and
Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd is a carryover once again, but
I do expect a down week from him this week since I suspect he'll
see more of Panthers CB Josh Norman than any other Cardinals'
receiver. With that said, it makes no sense to lose the potential
3x multiplier for a matchup I already prepared for (the odds were
very strong entering the playoffs Floyd would either face LCB
Norman or Seattle LCB Richard Sherman a lot in this round).
I obviously regret going with Brown over Fitzgerald last week
based on how each player's final box-score contribution ended
up, but it is worth noting that the future Hall of Famer was stuck
on one catch and two targets until late in the third quarter.
Brown and Fitzgerald figure to have the best matchups of the Arizona
receivers this weekend (probably in the order I listed them),
but I'm still going to make the change to Fitz anyway since last
week was yet another reminder that Palmer trusts him more than
any other player.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen/Rob Gronkowski
The call: Rob
Gronkowski. I strongly considered Gronkowski at the start
of this challenge simply because he is so much better than any
other player at his position. I put a fair amount of stock into
his uncertain injury status, but I ultimately decided against
him in order to stick with the
"contrarian Super Bowl" that was my focus this year.
Let this be a lesson for all playoff challenge and/or DFS owners
going forward: use uncertainty to your advantage when setting
a lineup. Most folks are very hesitant (and rightfully so) to
use injured players because they present too much risk. DFS owners,
in particular, need to understand and be reminded occasionally
that while players (especially superstars) with low ownership
rates carry plenty of risk in any given week, the payoff can be
much greater.
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to essentially combine
the two this postseason. I think by projecting each remaining
team one week at a time, I will be able to kill two birds with
one stone in this regard.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. The
players I have noted with an * are ones I feel should be roster
staples. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar
value to each player I have projected, followed by their projected
point total in that format (DraftKings and then Fuzzy's). Because
I went into some detail above, I won't spend explaining each projection
here - only some of the more notable ones. Each position is sorted
by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
So much for getting a quarterback at a discount price this week.
I can't imagine giving Manning a start under any circumstances,
so owners are going to have to pay up this week. Fortunately, I
think DraftKings has the prices right for the amount of fantasy
impact they are likely to have this week. As I touched on above,
the Patriots will very likely have a pass-heavy game plan (much
like the 42:14 pass-run ratio they utilized last week against the
Chiefs or the 42:16 pass-run ratio they had versus Denver in Week
12). For reasons we'll get into in the receiver section, a matchup
against the Broncos' pass defense doesn't figure to be as difficult
as it might appear on the surface - at least this week anyway. Russell
Wilson has already shown us that a mobile quarterback can have his
way with the Cardinals' defense, although Newton is more of an inside
power runner while Wilson is more of an escape out-of-the-back-door
scrambler. Having said that, Newton will need to be on top of his
game as both a runner and a thrower because the Panthers may not
have the receiving talent to take advantage of Arizona's cornerback
situation after Patrick Peterson, who figures to see a lot of Ted
Ginn this week. In salary-cap formats like DraftKings, I'll probably
lean toward Palmer simply because of the $600 savings. While I recognize
he probably has the lowest upside of the three, I would argue his
matchup is probably the easiest of the bunch too. Seattle targeted
Robert McClain endlessly in the second half last weekend and I don't
know why Palmer wouldn't do likewise. As much as Arizona likes to
go downfield, I'd be stunned if the Cardinals don't take repeated
shots against McClain with John Brown (and/or Floyd if Peterson
doesn't follow him). It is also asking a lot for slot CB Cortland
Finnegan to bottle up Larry Fitzgerald, giving the Cardinals two
very favorable matchups just about anytime they choose to go three-wide.
To no one's surprise, Johnson should remain a roster staple. After
that, we have a glut of backs that will probably profile as little
more than RB3s during the regular season. Anderson is riding a three-game
scoring streak and is the preferred option over Hillman in the passing
game. It could also easily be argued that he has been outperforming
Hillman for the better part of a month or two. I am much less certain
about White simply because there is little game-to-game guarantee
that he will be the main receiving back over Bolden. He should be,
but if we have learned anything over the years, what should happen
and what does happen in New England's backfield doesn't always make
much sense for the majority of fantasy owners. I imagine the majority
of owners will consider Stewart a roster staple given his 100-yard,
two-score game last week, but those same people need to realize
the Seahawks' defense was a shell of itself in the first half and
Stewart's 59-yard run on the first play of the game accounted for
more than half of his rushing yards. (Carolina gained just 81 yards
on the 36 designed runs that followed Stewart's sprint.) That's
not to say Stewart can't break 100 and score again versus the Cardinals,
but I'm not buying the chances of him scoring twice inside the 5
again either. Those same runs have been Newton's for the majority
of the year and, making matters worse for Stewart's supporters,
he is now battling an ankle injury to boot. Hillman probably offers
the most big-play potential of the backs that will be discussed
here, although I'm not sure that's going to be enough in a game
New England has better than 50-50 chance to control. If I was to
gamble on one of two low-cost options at this position, it would
either be Tolbert or Bolden.
It's a clear sign that the NFL has changed from even five years
ago anytime two receivers known most for their exploits in the slot
sit atop their positional ranking. Edelman should be a clear roster
staple in part because he: 1) is so essential to the short passing
game of the Patriots and 2) figures to see a lot of Chris Harris
Jr. in the slot this weekend. Normally, drawing Harris would not
be a positive, but the fact that Denver's slot corner is dealing
with a left shoulder injury against New England's primary receiver
sounds better than any other matchup New England is going to get
at receiver. As such, expect Edelman to line up on the right side
of the formation and work his way across the middle repeatedly to
take advantage of Harris' inability to lift his arm without pain
this weekend. Fitzgerald should see a lot of Finnegan, who struggled
in his own right against Seattle when Russell Wilson wasn't targeting
Jermaine Kearse in McClain's coverage. After that, it gets a bit
trickier. With Thomas struggling so often with drops, it's probably
safe to view Sanders as the Broncos' top receiver at the moment.
New England has defended opposing No. 1 receivers with CB Logan
Ryan and given him safety help over the top for most of the season
while leaving Malcolm Butler to follow the No. 2 option, which figures
to be Sanders in this case. Sanders was a force in the first meeting
(6-113-0) while Thomas struggled mightily (1-36-0) on 13 targets,
so recent history also suggests this could be a good week to fade
Thomas.
Assuming John Brown sees more of McClain than any other Cardinals'
receiver, he could easily prove to be the play of the week. For
any DFS owner looking for a reasonably-priced receiver with a
high ceiling, he is probably the best bet this week. Since I expect
Arizona CB Patrick Peterson to spend a great deal of time defending
Ginn, it opens the door for either "Philly" Brown or
Funchess to have a huge game. I'm not here to suggest Justin Bethel
isn't a capable cornerback, but if Brown and Funchess spent the
majority of their day in his coverage and Peterson locks onto
Ginn, Newton is going to force-feed Greg Olsen and either Brown
or Funchess. Obviously, if we find out before game day that Peterson
will not travel along with Ginn, then the well-traveled former
first-round pick becomes a very savvy flex play. I wouldn't necessarily
recommend avoiding Floyd just because I think Norman will be focusing
on him, but the combination of that possibility and the tasty
matchups of John Brown and Fitzgerald probably make him the least
desirable Arizona receiver this week.
There's not really much to discuss here: Gronkowski and Olsen are
the only legitimate options in any playoff format this week. Denver
(11th-most fantasy points against tight ends) and Arizona (12th-most)
each showed vulnerability against the league's top tight ends during
the regular season and there's not much of a reason to expect that
to change now. Gronkowski is always a good bet for at least one
score and has more upside, so it is probably worth paying the extra
$500 in DraftKings to lock him up. Olsen is no slouch and it should
be noted that the Cardinals gave up productive or really productive
PPR fantasy games to Kyle Rudolph (12.7), Zach Ertz (21.8) and Chase
Coffman (12.9) in three of the final four weeks of the regular season.
I'd side with Gronk simply because I suspect New England will throw
more often than Carolina.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TO - Total turnovers TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
The way I see it, this is the rare week where spending less on defense
is not only a cost-effective move, but also the prudent one as well.
Manning can't help he was the victim of six dropped passes last
week, but the fact remains he hasn't thrown for a touchdown in his
last two-plus starts (came on in relief in Week 17) and was a turnover
machine earlier in the year. The odds are strong Denver will need
him to throw more than the 37 times he did last week. While I don't
buy into the whole "Manning chokes in the playoffs" narrative
that has been popular for years, I feel confident the people that
do buy into it will have their case supported this week unless the
Broncos' receivers (specifically Demaryius Thomas) can do a little
more to help out their quarterback than they have for the majority
of the season. I get the distinct sense Arizona-Carolina will be
much more of a shootout than Denver-New England, which is another
reason I would roll with the Pats in DFS. Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
