A common and popular axiom fantasy owners like to toss around during
draft time states, "You can't win the league with your first-round
pick, but you sure can lose it." While I believe there is a
certain amount of truth to that statement, I have long held the
belief leagues are almost always won via the waiver wire.
To illustrate what I'm talking about, consider the draft for
each of your teams as the foundation of your home. Friends and
family don't talk about the strength of your floors, walls, how
sturdy the ground is or how great of a job the electrician did,
but each of those parts contribute to the overall "health"
of the home. What a homeowner adds to the home is typically what
attracts the eye the most, be it furniture, artwork or a man cave
that puts all others to shame.
The foundation of your fantasy home should pretty much be set
before Week 1. My goal used to be 70 percent (as in seven of every
10 players I drafted also ended the season on my team), but that
has changed as specialists have become more commonplace and the
passing game has become king. Regardless, a good draft typically
enables an owner to remain patient with slow starters and win
consistently despite injuries, just like a good house withstands
the elements. More often than not, however, waiver-wire pickups
- the right ones anyway - tend to take a team that may have finished
.500 and will often enable it to win/compete for a title. Owners
need only to look back at last year to see how many championship-winning
teams counted on the likes of Buck
Allen, Bilal
Powell, James
White or Kamar
Aiken down the stretch.
I named this week's column "On the Fringe" because
I wanted to go to take a hard look at five non-elite players who
have either recently emerged as vital cogs or should be considered
priority free agents this week - each of whom have shown a glimpse
of becoming something more than fringe players. To reach each
of my "verdicts", I reviewed at least their last two
games and perhaps more. In a world full of "experts"
who are paid to dissect the games as well as crunch the numbers
in order to reach their conclusions (but typically fall short
in the former area), watching - and sometimes re-watching the
games - can often provide a valuable leg up on the competition.
The Dolphins were so committed to Ajayi this season that the
front office went out and signed a less-than-100-percent Arian
Foster to come in and give the backfield some insurance, if not
a capable back in the passing game. It took only a few weeks for
Miami to name Foster the starter and less than two weeks into
the season for Foster to get hurt, while Ajayi was in the doghouse
for not "reacting well" to being named a second-teamer.
The Dolphins spent Weeks 3-4 mixing and matching three or four
different backs in hopes of getting something from their ground
attack to no avail. Ajayi showed the most in Week 4 (if a 6-33-0
line as a rusher qualifies as such) and HC Adam Gase came to the
realization he should scrap the four-man committee and commit
to "a couple guys". Ajayi showed a bit of a pulse again
with 13 carries for 42 yards and a score in Week 5, so forgive
yourself if you didn't see Week 6 coming. In fact, if Ajayi was
still on a roster outside of 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters,
consider last week an example of a blind squirrel occasionally
finding a nut.
Now allow me to tell you why Ajayi was able to rumble for 204
yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries last week. Using its sixth
different offensive line combination of the season, Miami was
finally able to roll out the front five it had envisioned this
spring and summer (LT Branden Albert, LG Laremy Tunsil, C Mike
Pouncey, RG Jermon Bushrod and RT Ja'Wuan James). The Pittsburgh
Steelers were without stud DE Cameron Heyward and ILB Ryan Shazier,
which only made things easier for an offensive line boasting four
former first-round picks. It became obvious on Ajayi's first few
runs against Pittsburgh that the Steelers' defensive right side
was no match for the left side of the Dolphins' offensive line
as Ajayi repeatedly went untouched through the first line of defense.
It wasn't long before Miami figured out the same thing was available
behind Bushrod and James as well.
Verdict: Ajayi was a gifted receiver
and elusive runner in college, which makes what I have seen from
him this season a near-180 of how he played at Boise State. Especially
in last week's contest, he was the essence of a one-cut back looking
for contact but a player Miami still doesn't want to (or can't)
trust in the passing game. Owners probably don't need me to tell
them a repeat of last week is highly unlikely, but Ajayi has a
shot of sustaining RB2 value if the offensive line can stay healthy
and Gase remains committed to him. With that said, asking for
both things to happen when there is little evidence to suggest
it could makes Ajayi a very risky bet. With the Bills, Jets (perhaps
with ILB David Harris back to stabilize the front seven), Chargers
and Rams coming up over the next four weeks, I don't see a lot
of opportunity for the Dolphins to produce the same game script
they created last week. Foster is going to return at some point
and, although he may not hold up very long, he's going to steal
some carries as well as handle the majority of passing-down work.
Miami's cornerbacks are among the league's worst and the defense
as a whole isn't going to get better either after losing top S
Rashad Jones, so the Dolphins will be facing a number of negative
game-script situations. As a result, Ajayi has all the makings
of a boom-or-bust weekly option - one I'd much rather sell than
buy or hold.
Ka'Deem Carey and the return of Langford
could turn the CHI backfield into a fantasy quagmire.
In much the same way Ajayi failed to make a good first impression
on his new coach, Howard was buried on the depth chart for most
of the preseason, working behind Jeremy
Langford, Jacquizz
Rodgers and Ka'Deem
Carey. Rodgers was eventually released, while Langford and
Carey both got hurt, opening the door for Howard to become the
last man standing in the Bears' backfield. To his credit, he has
exploited matchups against Indianapolis and Detroit in order to
give Chicago some much-needed offensive balance. Last week marked
the first opponent (Jacksonville Jaguars) Howard has faced since
his ascension that actually represented a somewhat difficult matchup
for him and he managed only 34 yards on 15 carries. Tape-watchers
can see he didn't have a much of a chance to succeed on a number
of those runs, but Jacksonville may actually end up being the
softest matchup he has over the next month (Green Bay, Minnesota,
bye, Tampa Bay).
Unlike some fantasy owners, coaches who believe in the hot-hand
approach at running back often don’t look at matchups over
multiple weeks when it comes to determining how "hot"
a back is. If Howard is unable to get much going over the next
week or two with a weakened offensive line against stout competition,
I can guarantee you HC John Fox's first words will not be "Hey,
Green Bay and Minnesota have the two of the four best run defenses
in the NFL, so cut Howard some slack." More likely, Fox will
be liberal in his use of Ka'Deem Carey in hopes he can provide
a spark. If Carey's quickness plays better against those top run
defenses than Howard's power, history suggests Fox will not think
twice about splitting carries or turning to Carey as the starter.
Verdict: Oh, if we could only go into the lab and combine Howard's
power running with Langford's knack for creating big plays. I'll
admit I was much more of a fan of Howard in college than I have
been since his recent emergence, so keep that in mind as you consider
the rest of what I say. While a running back's ability to generate
yards after contact is an important part to his overall success
statistically, one-speed big bruisers with limited explosion typically
don't enjoy sustained success in the NFL and generally require
good blocking in order to get their yards. To that latter point,
LG Josh Sitton is expected to miss "some time" with
an ankle injury after working his way up to being rated as the
fifth-best guard per Pro Football Focus. Another reason I'm skeptical
of Howard's long-term prospects is the competition against which
he has established himself as a must-start fantasy option. Carey's
nine-carry, 50-yard effort against Jacksonville should greatly
concern Howard owners if for no other reason than Fox earning
a reputation of being a coach who rides the "hot hand"
at running back - something he stated he would do this offseason.
I've felt all along that Carey is the most complete back in the
backfield, so with Langford due back in a few weeks, one has to
wonder if last week was the start of Fox working his voodoo on
fantasy owners. Call me crazy, but it wouldn't surprise me if
Carey and then Langford turn this backfield into a fantasy quagmire.
Even if you don't want to buy into my evaluation of Howard, it
is difficult to ignore Fox's history at the position. Barring
an unexpected rash of short-yardage scores between now and Thanksgiving,
I have a hard time seeing Howard serving as anything more than
a low-end RB2, with a high probability he'll see his playing time
cut further (he saw 68.75 percent of the team's snaps last week
as opposed to the 93.3 percent he managed over the previous two
weeks).
Darius Slay is rated as the fourth-best cornerback this season
per PFF. So, it was no small feat Britt dominated one of the league's
most respected cornerbacks to the tune of 7-136-2 on eight targets
last week. Want even more reason to get excited? Britt was less
than a foot (and a near challenge overturn) away from a third
score. Regardless of whether or not you want to acknowledge potential
scores, receivers don't typically come close to scoring three
times in a game - and certainly not against the one of the top
players at his position in the league - unless they have earned
the complete trust of his quarterback and offensive coordinator.
Perhaps the best part for fantasy owners is Britt is a big-play
receiver, so he doesn't need a ton of volume in order to produce
starter-worthy numbers.
Watching the Rams' last two games this week, Britt isn't getting
all of his production on deep balls despite what some might believe
based on his current 16.4 YPC. He's sitting down against zone
coverage and creating separation on slants, generating a ton of
yards after the catch. While QB Case Keenum is certainly capable
of going in the tank again at any time, the Rams aren't going
to abandon RB Todd Gurley as their offensive centerpiece anytime
soon - and this actually helps Britt in his quest to achieve some
degree of consistency. To a certain degree, OC Rob Boras' insistence
on force-feeding WR Tavon Austin has the same effect as giving
Gurley his usual work, since defenses usually aren't designed
the stop the player who has the third-best chance of getting the
ball on any given play. Still skeptical. Here's a stat that should
prove he's the most trusted man in LA: he is tied with the likes
of Doug Baldwin and T.Y. Hilton for eighth place with eight third-down
conversions (the NFL leaders have 10).
Verdict: Perhaps I'm just being stubborn because of his immense
talent, but I am much more willing to buy into Britt as a breakout
player this season than someone like Cameron Meredith, despite
the former's injury history. I also recognize Britt's current
75 percent catch rate (30 receptions on 40 targets) is unsustainable
and the volume may not be there as much for Britt as it could/will
be for Meredith (in large part because I believe his production
is tied to the health of Eddie Royal). I'm like most of you and
noticed his steady contribution week in and week out this season
and dismissed him because I don't want any Rams on my team for
obvious reasons. The problem with that line of thinking is that
Keenum has actually played well in three of his last four games.
However, defenses aren't going to take players out of the box
to stop Britt and let Gurley beat them. So, the irony of Britt's
situation is that his current level of production - obviously
something more in line with what he did in Weeks 1-5 and not quite
the benchmark he set against Detroit - is actually quite sustainable,
just as long as Keenum plays like the league-average quarterback
he is and not the overmatched signal-caller he was in Week 1.
I certainly wouldn't want to count on Britt carrying my receiving
corps the rest of the season, but it's getting harder and harder
to ignore he's on pace for 1,312 yards (he was on track for 1,139
prior to last week's explosion). I doubt he gets to the first
number, but that's not really the point. If I can get a consistent
10-12 points in PPR - with upside for much more - from my WR3/flex
player, my fantasy team is going to win much more often than it
loses. Britt has shown he has a pretty safe floor and a pretty
high ceiling, which is exactly the type of players that helps
us win fantasy championships. I'm buying.
If efficiency is what you want from a receiver, then you got
exactly what you needed from Wright last week. The fifth-year
pro played only 22-of-62 snaps and ran only 14 routes, yet was
targeted nine times and finished with eight catches for 133 yards
and a touchdown. The Tennessee coaching staff made it known getting
Wright involved early and often was a priority against the Cleveland
Browns, probably much to the chagrin of DeMarco
Murray and
Delanie Walker owners. Why the Titans chose to make feeding
Wright a priority this past week and not over the previous two-plus
years is something probably only each of the last two coaching
staffs can answer, but the current setup is not one conducive
to him enjoying a repeat of Week 6 anytime soon.
I have long held the opinion Tennessee has failed to utilize
Wright correctly for most of his career. (While injuries have
certainly played a factor in his career falling short of expectations,
a receiver capable of posting a 94-catch season in his second
year typically doesn't get pushed aside as quickly as Wright has
regardless of his durability issues.) In my mind, he is a clear
starter capable of playing the slot in three-receiver packages,
not a slot receiver capable of playing outside. Generally speaking,
this is where I believe the Titans went wrong. Unfortunately for
his 2016 prospects, Tennessee doesn't agree with my assessment
and fashions itself as a power-running offense that wants to utilize
two-tight formations as much as possible - a development that
doesn't exactly jive with a player pigeonholed as a slot receiver.
Another factor working against Wright is that he not tied to any
coach or key front-office personnel and will be a free agent after
this season, so the Titans probably don't feel obligated to give
him snaps at the expense of Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe or
even Andre Johnson - players that actually have actually invested
in over the last year. As you can see, there are a lot of players
to feed (Walker included) in an offense that wants to pound opponents
into submission.
Verdict: Unless a team makes a long-term commitment to its primary
slot receiver (or movable chess piece) - as the Rams did with
Austin this offseason, it is probably safe to assume keeping him
consistently involved is not a top priority. This is one instance
I wouldn't mind being wrong, because it would mean a team's most
talented receiver would get a chance to fulfill his potential,
but I simply cannot envision a scenario in which the Titans bump
Matthews or Sharpe from the lineup or make a three-wide set their
base offense. Assuming Wright remains the primary slot receiver
and a No. 3 receiver in this offense, his snap count will probably
remain in the 20s. With so few snaps on a consistent basis, it
will be extremely difficult for him to finish with four or five
catches per game consistently. He's not a red-zone weapon either,
so it becomes even more difficult for him to be counted upon as
anything more than a WR5, which pretty much describes 90 percent
of the receivers who are considered hot waiver-wire adds in any
given week during the season.
Houston tight ends combined for 41 catches, 448 yards and four
touchdowns in 2015. With any luck this week, the Texans will surpass
(or at least match) all three totals, as they stand at 40 receptions,
408 yards and two scores through six games. Both of the TDs and
almost half of the yards (201) belong to Fiedorowicz, who has
been targeted 20 times over the last three games alone. Almost
without fail, tight ends need at least two years to absorb perhaps
the most mentally demanding offensive position behind quarterback.
HC Bill O'Brien gave Fiedorowicz the game ball after posting a
4-48-1 line despite playing through a second-quarter MCL sprain
during a Week 4 win over the Titans and the third-year pro followed
that with four catches on eight targets for 60 yards against a
Minnesota Vikings defense that has seemingly shut down everyone
and everything. Last week, Fiedorowicz turned seven targets into
a 6-85-1 line, including the game-tying touchdown late in the
fourth quarter during the team's comeback win. Perhaps the best
part of that catch was the subtle detail of his route, giving
S Clayton Geathers a wide receiver-quality head-and-shoulder fake
to the outside in order to get the separation he needed inside.
New England showed the rest of the league how to frustrate Houston
back in Week 3 - give safety help over the top against the receivers
and make the Texans throw underneath. The Patriots did this with
the expectation their front seven could stop Houston's running
game and it did, although the Texans did themselves no favors
by repeatedly running Lamar Miller into the middle of the defense
as opposed to getting him on the perimeter. Perhaps what irked
O'Brien the most about that game (and maybe why he decided to
take over play-calling again) was Houston's unwillingness (or
inability) to take what the defense gave it over the middle of
the field. It should come as no surprise QB Brock Osweiler has
targeted the tight end position at least 10 times in every week
since (four if you count the Patriots' game, although most of
Ryan Griffin's numbers in that contest came in garbage time against
soft coverage). If you really want to know how much the rest of
the league fears DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, feel free to
re-watch Colts-Texans. Even as Lamar Miller got going, Indy did
not bring its safeties up.
Verdict: When I look for potential breakout performers, I often
care as much about when they get their production as I do about
how they go it. The fact Osweiler made a small-window throw to
Fiedorowicz at such a critical moment of the game - as opposed
to forcing it to Hopkins - says a lot about the trust the Iowa
product has earned and is really what makes Fiedorowicz a potential
under-the-radar second-half stud. As long as Hopkins and Fuller
are able to strike fear into the heart of opposing secondaries,
Fiedorowicz should be matched up against a linebacker more often
than not and the middle of the field should be open. As we have
seen over the last three weeks, those are matchups the 6-6, 265-pounder
can win and opportunities he can exploit. For the season, Fiedorowicz
(80.2) ranks eighth at his position - right behind Travis
Kelce and Hunter
Henry (80.3) - per PFF, which should give you an indication
as to how well he is playing. In short, if you missed the boat
on Henry because of the belief rookie tight ends can't produce,
this might be your chance to make up for that oversight. Three
straight double-digit PPR scoring weeks is relatively rare for
any non-elite tight end and a good sign for his future involvement
in the offense. But don't wait too long; time is going to run
out soon to take advantage of scooping up a possible low-end TE1
off waivers.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.