Ezekiel Elliott should be the first player
off the board in just about every keeper/dynasty league.
1.01 LAR - QB Jared Goff, Rams
Goff was asked to unload the ball faster than most NFL quarterbacks
- in part because he is a quick decision-maker and in part because
his offensive line continually failed him. There is no quarterback
in this draft ready to take the reins of his offense in Week 1,
but that is the situation Goff will almost certainly find himself
in as St. Louis offers only Case Keenum as competition. Goff is
as tough as they come, continually taking punishment in order
to give his receivers a split-second more to come open. On the
plus side, the Cal product will probably not be asked to do much
of his rookie year as Todd Gurley quickly emerged as the centerpiece
of the Rams' offense last year. Goff should considered a low-end
QB2 at best in redraft leagues this year, and it is difficult
to be overly optimistic about him in keeper/dynasty leagues for
the near future since St. Louis lacks receiving talent and runs
a conservative offense.
1.02 PHI - QB Carson Wentz, Eagles
Wentz has been described the highest-ceiling quarterback in this
draft with a floor lower than Jared Goff, presumably because he
played his football at North Dakota State. From a skill standpoint,
Wentz is somewhere in the neighborhood of Blake Bortles and Andrew
Luck - he's easily capable of running quarterback-power plays
like Cam Newton or throwing 50 yards in the air on a dime. From
a mental standpoint, the two-time FBS national champion has a
ready proven he can do it all - he made audibles and line calls
on a regular basis and was described as someone who "inhales
tape" by his college coaches. Wentz will have as good of
coaching as a rookie quarterback could hope to have - new HC Doug
Pederson and new OC Frank Reich each were pro quarterbacks. Goff
figures to have a little bit more value in redraft leagues because
he is much more likely to start right away, but Wentz profiles
as a better fantasy prospect long-term given his running ability
and the fact he is headed to a team that has much more talent
at the skill positions.
1.04 DAL - RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Fantasy owners' dreams have come true: One of the better running
back prospects to come out in the last 10 years will have the
opportunity to run behind arguably the best offensive line in
the league. Perhaps Ohio State HC Urban Meyer described Elliott
the best when he called him "the best player without the
ball that I've ever coached", so he isn't going to get pulled
in passing-down situations like most young backs. Elliott is a
big-play runner that is built to be a feature back and that is
almost certainly what he will become the moment he hits the field
in Dallas. Elliott is the rare rookie runner that should be considered
in the middle to late part of the first round in redraft leagues,
and he should be the first player off the board in just about
every keeper/dynasty league.
1.15 CLE - WR Corey Coleman, Browns
It's about time. Cleveland has ignored the receiver position
for a few years despite having a screaming need for one. In Coleman,
the Browns get a bona fide playmaker in the Percy Harvin mold.
Coleman is raw as a route-runner - he essentially ran four kinds
of routes in Baylor's spread offense - but there is probably no
receiver in this draft that possesses the ceiling he does. If
he wants to be great, he can have a Steve Smith kind of career.
He's a dynamic chess piece that new HC Hue Jackson will figure
out (pretty quickly) how to use in a creative fashion and, as
a result, needs to be taken seriously as a potential low-end starting
option in redraft leagues. On talent alone, Coleman needs to be
considered somewhere in the middle of the first round in rookie
drafts.
1.21 HOU - WR Will Fuller, Texans
It's becoming obvious with the free-agent addition of Lamar Miller
and now the selection of Fuller that Houston made addressing team
speed a huge priority this offseason. Fuller has drawn comparisons
to Ted Ginn Jr. for his ability to both break the heart of a defense
(among the draft's best vertical threats) and the heart of the
offense (8.6 percent drop rate - highest in this class). Be that
as it may, The Texans already know they have their go-to guy at
receiver in DeAndre Hopkins and likely feel it is more important
to get opposing defenses to play him more honestly as opposed
to landing a player that brings something similar to Hopkins.
With no hope of becoming the lead dog anytime soon, Fuller's redraft
upside will probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of what
Nate Washington did for Houston in 2015 and should be considered
a high-ceiling, low-floor play in yearly leagues. His long-term
upside is limited as well - again, due to the presence of Hopkins
- meaning he will likely be a second-round pick in most rookie
drafts.
1.22 WAS - WR Josh Doctson, Redskins
In my mind, Washington landed the best receiver prospect in this
draft and fills a long-term need for the team. His ceiling (and
his NFL comp) is somewhere in the neighborhood of Allen Robinson,
while his floor should be among the best No. 2 receivers in the
NFL after he adds some muscle to his frame and develops more polish
as a route-runner. Like Robinson, he doesn't blow by his defender
on the deep ball or jump off the tape with blazing speed, he just
always seems to come down with the ball. Doctson needs to add
more strength in order to be better after the catch, but the Redskins
likely just landed their No. 1 receiver for 2017 considering DeSean
Jackson and Pierre Garçon will be free agents after the
season. Doctson will be just an injury away from having significant
fantasy value in redraft leagues this year and should be considered
the top receiver in rookie drafts of the four drafted to this
point.
1.23 MIN - WR Laquon Treadwell, Vikings
Long considered the best receiver prospect in this class, Treadwell
is the fourth wideout to come off the board. It's hard to argue
about the fit, however, since the Ole Miss product is perhaps
the best blocking receiver I have studied and is going to a team
that still employs Adrian
Peterson. He can also high-point the ball with the best of
them. Treadwell has garnered comparisons to Jordan
Matthews, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan
Boldin and even Dez Bryant, which should give everyone a good
idea about how physical he is. Treadwell doesn't strike me as
a future elite receiver in the league, but he could very
well end up becoming Teddy
Bridgewater's favorite receiver simply because he'll probably
spend more time in the short and intermediate areas of the field
(and offers more size in the red zone) than Stefon
Diggs. Still, it's hard to get too excited about his fantasy
upside in the current conservative Minnesota offense, which probably
means he'll be a WR4 at best for redraft purposes. His keeper/dynasty
value figures to be that of a mid-to-late first-round pick in
rookie drafts, much higher than Will Fuller and slightly lower
than Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson.
1.26 DEN - QB Paxton Lynch, Broncos
Somehow, didn't we all know Lynch was going to land in Denver?
Considered the highest-upside quarterback in this draft by many
(albeit with a scary floor), the 6-7 and 244 pounder lands in
a situation where he should have the opportunity to develop behind
presumed starter Mark Sanchez for 2016 before challenging for
the starting job next year. Lynch is in many ways a poor man's
Cam Newton (ironic, isn't it?) in that he is a wonderful athlete
with a big arm coming from a spread system that enters the league
needing to answer questions about his ability to read coverages.
On the plus side, HC Gary Kubiak's offensive system will cater
to his mobility, simplify his reads on a number of throws and
allow him to beat defenses to the edge thanks to a heavy dose
of play-action and rollout throws. While it is a bit of a risky
call, Lynch probably profiles as a slightly better dynasty option
than Jared Goff and right below Carson Wentz at the quarterback
position. He should be considered an afterthought in redraft leagues,
however.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.