The AFC South may have been a punchline for NFL fans last year as
only one team (the Houston Texans) finished with a winning record.
During this most recent offseason, however, the division got to
work on its rosters to make sure the joke is on the rest of the
league beginning in 2016. Houston won the AFC South last year and
was perhaps the most aggressive of the four teams in free agency,
while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans used a combination
of free agency and the draft to complete their own makeovers. Not
surprisingly, the AFC South will play a central role in this week's
article.
After providing each of you with my early-summer thoughts on
the incoming
class of rookies last week and their potential impact in redraft
leagues, it's time to focus on the veterans that are most likely
to make some noise in their new surroundings. (The players will
be separated initially by position, and then ordered by likely
“impact” in 2015. I’ll briefly discuss some
other notable players that probably should go undrafted in most
traditional 16-round drafts at the bottom of the article.)
Fantasy Analysis: In March 2007,
the Texans dealt two second-round picks to the Atlanta Falcons
for a 25-year-old, 6-6, 245-pound quarterback with limited mobility
who made two starts in his three seasons of the league to replace
their previous "quarterback of the future" (David Carr).
This offseason via free agency, they acquired a 25-year-old, 6-8,
240-pound quarterback with somewhat better mobility and seven
career starts in four NFL seasons to be their quarterback of the
future. The biggest difference between Matt Schaub and Osweiler
is undoubtedly the price tag; Houston gave the ex-Bronco a four-year,
$72 M contract with $37 M guaranteed, so he's probably going to
be a bit more than a game-manager. The good news is fantasy owners
don’t have to spend that kind of coin or make that kind
of investment to find out if he's the next Schaub or eventually
becomes the best quarterback in franchise history. Fortunately
for Osweiler, he should have the best supporting cast that any
Houston signal-caller has had at his disposal, since I think most
would agree the team has never possessed as much speed (namely
RB Lamar Miller, fourth-round RB Tyler Ervin and first-round pick
WR Will Fuller) or playmaking ability (Lamar and third-round WR
Braxton Miller) to go along with a clear offensive centerpiece
(DeAndre Hopkins). Admittedly, the aforementioned rookies have
a lot to prove. Nevertheless, Osweiler's arm talent is not in
question; it is more whether or not his three-plus years as Peyton
Manning's apprentice in Denver prepared him for the challenge
of running a Bill O'Brien offense. Speaking of which, O'Brien
figures to be Osweiler's blessing and curse: On one hand, the
third-year coach has coaxed career-best seasons (or pretty close)
out of just about every quarterback he has worked with recently.
On the other hand, O'Brien is known for being very tough on his
quarterbacks and running a more complex scheme than any one Osweiler
has been exposed to thus far. Given the depth at quarterback in
fantasy, owners would be wise to take a wait-and-see approach.
While he should be a more-than-serviceable QB2, the odds are long
that Osweiler will be considered a fantasy QB1 at season's end.
RB Lamar
Miller 2015 Team: Miami
2016 Team: Houston
Fantasy Analysis: This year will mark the fifth year in which
I have written a preseason free agency/trade article. In that
time, I do not recall a young running back in his prime who eventually
signed with another team in free agency (or at least one as good
as Miller). What differentiates this 25-year-old back from others
of similar age and circumstance is that he is a proven commodity
and his career odometer has a low reading (638 carries). A common
complaint among owners - and from Miller himself - was how underutilized
he was with the Dolphins, and the numbers bear it out. From a
usage standpoint, Miller had 63 more touches than Danny Woodhead
last year, or just under four touches per game more than the Chargers'
glorified third-down back. Put into further context, Miller (241)
had one more touch last year than DeAngelo Williams (240), who
played a bit role in at least five games and sparingly in three
others. It would have been one thing if he wasn't productive with
his touches, but he was. To put some more fantasy perspective
into his last two years, Miller received 15 or more touches (what
figures to be a light workload for him going forward in Houston)
in 19 of his 32 games over the last two years. On a team with
a somewhat porous offensive line each year and very little semblance
of a deep passing game, Miller averaged 17.5 PPR fantasy points
(on 18.5 touches) in those games. (Incidentally, Le'Veon Bell
averaged 18.5 PPR fantasy points in his six games last season.)
By comparison, Arian Foster averaged 19.3 PPR fantasy points on
21.25 touches last year, and he failed to rush for more than 3.3
YPC in any of his four games. (Miller's career YPC is 4.6.) Perhaps
the Dolphins had it right by capping Miller at 20 touches per
game, but they failed to reach that ceiling so often that all
they did was basically preserve him for Houston. I suspect the
Texans will probably eventually adopt a similar strategy at some
point, but I think O'Brien is smart enough - and the Texans' defense
is good enough - to allow him to match this year the six times
Miller saw 20-plus touches over the last three seasons combined.
I'll stop just short of predicting Miller will be fantasy's top
running back this year, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if
he was.
Forte can produce another RB1 season for
his owners.
RB Matt
Forte 2015 Team: Chicago
2016 Team: NY Jets
Fantasy Analysis: Like deep dish pizza, Forte was a Chicago institution
and probably should have been allowed to retire on his own terms
as a Bear. That's not how business works in the NFL these days,
so Forte makes the trek from the "Windy City" to "The
City that Never Sleeps". All things considered, he probably
couldn't have found a much better landing spot. Second-year OC
Chan Gailey has coaxed great fantasy seasons out of a number of
aging backs over the years - going as far back as Emmitt Smith
with the Dallas Cowboys in 1998 and continuing on with Lamar Smith,
Larry Johnson and Fred Jackson. The 30-year-old Forte need look
no further than Jackson for what he can do in a Gailey-coached
offense, as the latter enjoyed a career year at age 32 in his
second-to-last year in Buffalo (206 carries for 890 yards and
nine touchdowns; 47 catches for 387 yards and one score) - numbers
incidentally and eerily similar to the ones Forte had in 13 games
last season (218-898-4; 44-389-3). In no way am I implying Forte
will have a career year - that ship has sailed - but I do believe
the longtime Bear can muster produce another RB1 season for his
owners, especially in PPR leagues. Forte should a fair amount
of work out of the slot and get used extensively in the passing
game, so another 50-60 catch season is well within reach. However,
owners need to understand he will probably max out at 300 touches
if he plays a full season - far from a given for a back who will
turn 31 late in the year and has over 2,500 career touches. The
second important consideration is the depth the Jets have in their
backfield. Bilal Powell proved to be a more-than-serviceable complementary
back last season and will probably steal a few passing-down reps
each game. Khiry Robinson will probably be little more than a
breather back for Forte on early downs and may not log a lot of
snaps for Gang Green, but it should come as no surprise if he
ends up being New York's designated short-yardage/goal-line option.
RB DeMarco
Murray 2015 Team: Philadelphia
2016 Team: Tennessee
Fantasy Analysis: Viewed only from a weekly fantasy-point perspective,
Murray's first and only season with the Eagles wasn't so bad.
Considering how often he was sharing touches with two other running
backs, his nine double-digit point totals (in 15 games) is acceptable
for a RB2. As we all know, however, last year began with the promise
of running point in a Chip Kelly offense and ended with a thud.
Three games with nine or fewer rushing yards. Less than half as
many carries (194) than he had during his memorable 2014 campaign.
Effectively getting benched in the first year of a five-year free-agent
deal. The Titans rescued Murray from his situation in Philly by
agreeing to swap fourth-round picks with the Eagles in March,
but that turned out to only be a brief reprieve for the former
rushing champ, as Tennessee invested a second-round selection
into 2015 Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. Despite the Titans'
best intentions and admirable effort to prepare for the future
by building around Henry, the present figures to be another bumpy
ride for Murray. There's no question Murray is the best all-around
back at the moment in Tennessee, but who is going to get the ball
in short-yardage/goal-line situations? The 217-pound, 28-year-old
who looked to be in decline last year, or the 247-pound rookie
with freakish measurables for a man his size? In the passing game,
can we honestly expect a lesser version of Murray will keep Dexter
McCluster from stealing about 10 percent of his snaps? No matter
what the Titans' coaches say, Henry wasn't selected in the second
round to be a strict backup, nor is McCluster only go to remain
on the roster to take the passing-down work from Henry if Murray
were to get hurt. At best, Murray can hope for a 60-30-10 split
with Henry in the middle - probably stealing goal-line work and
acting as the breather back - and McCluster at the end of that
ratio, and that workload split assumes Murray looks more like
the 2014 version of himself than the 2015 model. The two-time
Pro Bowler will probably be drafted as a RB2 in most leagues this
summer simply because Tennessee has handed him the starting job,
but the Titans are going to probably need somewhere in the neighborhood
of 450 touches (or 70 more than last year) between their top three
backs - assuming the above split - in order to get Murray 270
touches (only 32 more than he has an Eagle in 2015) and somewhat
justify spending such a high pick on Henry. I haven't even mentioned
the likelihood of the rookie stealing Murray's job by midseason,
which could very easily happen. That is a lot of risk for a back
that is supposedly heading into the season with rock-solid job
stability, so I highly doubt I will consider him anything more
than a flex option entering 2016.
RB Chris
Ivory 2015 Team: NY Jets
2016 Team: Jacksonville
Fantasy Analysis: Of all the notable free agent moves - at least
from a fantasy perspective - I hate this one the most. I get it:
The Jaguars had a ton of cap room and were one of several franchises
that need to spend big this spring in hopes they could reach the
"minimum
spending floor" that is part of the most recent CBA.
Furthermore, Ivory is one of my favorite backs to watch. Now here's
the problem: If money is not an object, wouldn't a general manager
want to break the bank on the most productive back on the market
(27-year-old Doug Martin; five years, $35.75 M) or the best young
back (25-year-old Lamar Miller; four years, $26 M) and not on
the oldest top available back with the worst injury history (Ivory;
five years, $32 M)? Maybe Miller wasn't interested. I'll buy that;
I don't think he was. But are you going to tell me Martin couldn't
have been convinced to move from mid-Florida to north Florida
for what amounts to $1 M or so more per year? Furthermore, is
a committee back worth over $6 M per year? Not only does the move
not make sense financially, it also doesn't make sense in terms
of its length (Ivory will be 32 when his contract expires) or
logically (Will Ivory still be running the same way in 2019 that
he is now?). Worst of all, it forces a very capable young all-purpose
running back - T.J. Yeldon - into what figures to be a split backfield
for the final three years of his contract. From a stylistic standpoint
- Ivory is more of a pounder, Yeldon is more of a glider - is
where it makes sense, so Jaguar fans need to hope this isn't a
contract that comes back to bite the team in two years or so when
it is in cap trouble. Thankfully, Jacksonville is starting to
assemble what should be a league-average-or-better offensive line
and, in theory, Ivory's punishing inside running will make the
front five look even better. The ex-Jet and Saint should be considered
the heavy favorite for short-yardage/goal-line work and figures
to play one out of every three series at the very least. Jacksonville
should be a much-improved team this year and that alone should
lead to more volume (Jaguar running backs accounted for 295 of
the team's 354 rush attempts last season), but I'm not sure the
improvement will be so great that the team can get Ivory and Yeldon
to split 375 carries, which is probably the floor of what the
duo will need to be low-end fantasy starters. Ultimately, I expect
both Jaguars to max out as RB3s in fantasy, with Yeldon a possibility
to serve as a low-end RB2 in PPR formats.
WR Travis
Benjamin 2015 Team: Cleveland
2016 Team: San Diego
Fantasy Analysis: The owner of 41 receptions in his first three
NFL seasons while playing with a revolving door of quarterbacks
in Cleveland, Benjamin overcame said quarterback incompetence
to finish with 68 catches despite hauling in throws from Josh
McCown, Austin Davis and, of course, Johnny Manziel last year.
The quarterback situation is a bit more stable and productive
to be kind in San Diego, where Philip Rivers has not missed a
start since taking over the full-time job following Drew Brees'
departure in 2006. The knee-jerk reaction to Benjamin's signing
with the Chargers is that he will replace the void left behind
by Malcom Floyd. In theory, that is a true statement, but it would
be a mistake to assume a 26-year-old Benjamin (all 5-10 and 175
pounds of him) will merely slot into the same role the injury-prone,
34-year-old Floyd played at 6-5 and 225 pounds. When Rivers last
had a mostly healthy receiving corps back in 2014, he ranked 10th
in pass attempts of at least 20 yards. Considering Keenan Allen,
Antonio Gates, Steve Johnson and Danny Woodhead are all more short-to-intermediate
receivers, Benjamin should have the deep-ball market all to himself
plus benefit from better quarterbacking and all the attention
his aforementioned teammates will draw. His role doesn't figure
to be the most consistent from a fantasy-scoring perspective,
but he is clearly a better receiver than Floyd and could the kind
of WR3 that almost singlehandedly decides fantasy matchups three
or four times a year.
WR Marvin
Jones 2015 Team: Cincinnati
2016 Team: Detroit
Fantasy Analysis: Based on the size of his contract alone (five
years, $40 M; $20 M guaranteed), Jones was the biggest free-agent
fish in a rather small pond. He faces the impossible task of following
in the footsteps of Calvin Johnson, who retired this offseason.
No fan or owner in their right mind will expect Jones to fill
Megatron's shoes, of course, but the gaping 149-target void Johnson
leaves behind affords the former Bengal plenty of opportunity
to match or exceed his 65-816-4 line with Cincinnati a season
ago. But is it really that easy? The departure of Johnson would
seem to be a good enough reason for the Lions to back down from
calling passing plays a league-high 68 percent of the time like
they did last year in order to establish some sense of offensive
balance. (Detroit took another step in that direction in the draft
when it drafted Ohio State OT Taylor Decker to be the long-term
answer at left tackle and selected Washington State OT Joe Dahl
with the idea of playing him at guard, at least initially.) Assuming
that is the case, Jones is probably still going to be in line
for 100-120 targets because (obviously) not all the pass attempts
that will now be rush attempts will come out of his proverbial
target wallet. Golden Tate should be considered the top option
for Matthew Stafford and one has to believe Eric Ebron is going
to be the primary target near the goal line, although Jones should
be second in line in both regards. In the end, the 26-year-old
Cal product should finish about where he did last year in terms
of receptions (65) and receiving yards (816), with the possibility
of maybe adding another touchdown or two to the four he scored
in 2015. That's fantasy WR3 territory in most leagues, and not
the high-upside one I believe Benjamin is.
WR Mike
Wallace 2015 Team: Minnesota
2016 Team: Baltimore
Fantasy Analysis: The Ravens were essentially done on offense
last year the moment Steve Smith Sr. tore his Achilles in Week
8. This happened in part because first-round pick Breshad Perriman
could never get on the field and the team had very little experience
at tight end. Wallace was theoretically a scheme fit in the offenses
Vikings OC Norv Turner has run over the year, but it became rather
obvious after about a month he was not going to be a good fit
with Teddy Bridgewater. So, after three years of playing for quarterbacks
that struggle throwing the deep ball, Wallace signed a two-year
deal with Baltimore to do what he does best - run by defenders
- with perhaps the strongest-armed quarterback in the game today.
If it sounds like a good fit, it is because it is a good fit.
With that said, I'm not sure Wallace is guaranteed to approach
his finest seasons with Pittsburgh just because he has found a
scheme and quarterback fit. Smith cannot be expected to pick up
where he left off prior to his injury last season given the seriousness
of his injury, but it is hard to believe he won't be Joe Flacco's
top option - at least to begin the season. Perriman may not have
caught a NFL pass yet, but his size (6-2, 216) and speed (4.3)
might actually make him the premier deep threat on the team. And
there is Kamar Aiken, who stepped up as the team's top target
in the second half of the season as injuries began to pile up.
In short, I'm not sure Wallace is going to see the same 100-120
targets he did during his final three seasons in Pittsburgh. At
best (and assuming injuries don't strike Baltimore as much as
they did last year), Wallace beats out Perriman and Aiken in two-receiver
sets and is a boom-or-best fantasy WR3. (Given Perriman's partial
ACL tear over the weekend, there's a good chance Wallace will
get his chance to create some job security for himself.) At worst,
Perriman doesn't miss a step when he returns, shows the Ravens
he is the premier deep threat on the team and turns Wallace into
a low-volume third receiver. In that case, Wallace would be little
more than a fringe fantasy option.
Fantasy Analysis: At various points of last season, Matthews
appeared at times to be Ryan Tannehill's favorite receiver. It
was quite the climb for the former seventh-round pick out of Nevada-Reno,
who started the year behind Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, Kenny
Stills and, in theory, DeVante Parker. With Landry and Parker
clearly the future in Miami, Matthews was allowed to move on to
Tennessee, which will give him the opportunity to start the Dolphins
could not. Considering the Titans' current roster and likely emphasis
on running the ball, one has to wonder if he has a fair shot on
early downs to beat out Kendall Wright, who is expected to be
the main slot for the team. Given Wright's somewhat confusing
usage last year (when he wasn't injured), it would seem to be
a strong possibility. Tennessee very much wants to see Dorial
Green-Beckham emerge as the top weapon in the passing game at
some point, so it's going to be difficult for Matthews to achieve
any kind of weekly consistency in a passing game that also features
Delanie Walker and in an offense that will at least attempt to
be one of the more balanced in the league this season. His saving
grace to maintaining low-end fantasy WR3 status might be the fact
DGB is still very raw, but that is a weak branch to stand on for
his owners. While he is in good position to beat his career highs
across the board in 2016 (43-662-4, all last season), he should
be considered a WR4 with minimal upside.
WR Chris
Hogan 2015 Team: Buffalo
2016 Team: New England
Fantasy Analysis: Stop me if you've heard this one before: an
undrafted receiver out of Monmouth overcomes long odds to not
only make a NFL roster but also play a starring role. The first
such player was Miles Austin, who broke out with the Cowboys in
2009. There's a very real chance the second could be Hogan, although
he's going to need some chips to fall in place for it to happen.
For those readers that have never heard of Hogan, he spent the
last three years in Buffalo, generally moving the chains on a
consistent basis when given the opportunity. The casual fan will
see his listed at 6-1 and 220 pounds and automatically consider
him an outside receiver. In reality, he is really a slot receiver
that can play outside, and that should be where his value lies
in New England, which runs a passing game that relies heavily
on the slot. As most casual fans know, Julian Edelman has a firm
grasp on that spot and Danny Amendola is more than capable in
that role as well. However, Edelman (two operations on the same
foot in the last year) and Amendola (offseason surgeries on his
knee and ankle) aren't overly durable and undersized receivers
already in their 30s. At worst, Hogan should be able to fill the
outside role Brandon LaFell occupied over the last two seasons,
although his job will not be to stretch the defense - that's not
his game. However, it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which
Hogan needs to fill in for a game or two as the full-time slot
receiver. Additionally, with all the movable chess pieces the
Patriots have, I can easily see a formation in which they go five-wide
with their two tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett)
outside the hashes, Edelman and Hogan in the slot and Dion Lewis
motioning out the backfield. Granted, one cannot build an entire
offense out of such formations, but the larger point is that Hogan
is highly versatile and should be a full-time player in an offense
run by Tom Brady. At the moment, the former Bill has a 14th-round
ADP in 12-team PPR drafts, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Expect that to change as the summer progresses; don't be surprised
if Hogan is able to push for WR3 value in 2016.
WR Rueben
Randle 2015 Team: NY Giants
2016 Team: Philadelphia
Fantasy Analysis: Randle, who was considered to be one of the
most pro-ready receivers in his 2012 draft class, finished the
season with a flurry for the second straight year, scoring a touchdown
in each of his team's last four contests. Outside of not missing
a game in his four-year career with the Giants, however, the LSU
product was mostly a disappointment in New York. Despite possessing
the physical gifts to play the position, he repeatedly found himself
in former HC Tom Coughlin's doghouse for running poor routes,
being late to meetings and complaining about his role in the offense
among other things. Early indications are that Randle is going
to get his shot at making his mark in Philadelphia in 2016, as
reports suggest new Eagles HC Doug Pederson has already reached
the conclusion that Jordan Matthews is an inside receiver. Furthermore,
Nelson Agholor has reportedly not been impressive in offseason
practices either, while Randle "really
made an impact" in OTAs, according to Pederson. As luck
would have it, even that small bit of momentum hit a snag when
Randle discovered he needed to have his gallbladder removed, costing
his roughly two weeks of the non-mandatory practices, although
he is expected to be 100 percent for training camp. Still, one
has to imagine if Randle earned the dreaded "underachiever"
label as the second receiver in New York while playing for an
upper-level quarterback like Eli Manning and across his former
college teammate in Odell Beckham Jr., why will he prosper in
a different version of the West Coast offense as perhaps the top
option at receiver for Sam Bradford? (Remember, beyond Bradford's
well-documented injury history, he is no sure thing to keep his
job all season long.) Thus, it is incredibly difficult to buy
into Randle as anything more than a low-end WR4 or even WR5 despite
his potential top-wideout status with the Eagles.
WR Mohamed
Sanu 2015 Team: Cincinnati
2016 Team: Atlanta
Fantasy Analysis:Julio Jones 203, every other Falcons wide
receiver combined 177. That was the final target tally in
Atlanta last season, with no wideout drawing more than Roddy White's
69. White is no longer in the Falcons' plans and Leonard Hankerson,
who was next with 46 targets, is now trying to make the Buffalo
Bills' roster. In other words, Sanu should have plenty of opportunity
to prove he is worth five years and $32.5 M after serving mostly
as the Bengals' slot receiver. Atlanta didn't address the position
in April's draft, leaving 2015 fourth-rounder Justin Hardy as
the only real depth the team has at the position. Here's the problem
with that: Sanu ranked second in the highest percentage of slot
snaps last year (87.6, per Pro Football Focus), while Hardy -
a player with a similar skill set and upside - worked the same
gig 67.9 percent of the time, so one of the two is going to be
forced into an outside spot, where their lack of speed and explosiveness
is likely to get exposed. While it easy to like Sanu for the increased
chances he is certain to receive, I cannot understand why Atlanta
spent so much to acquire a younger, more durable and more versatile
version of Hankerson. It would be far from surprising if the Falcons
ended up simply running more two-tight formations with Jacob Tamme
and rookie Austin Hooper in order to create mismatches, because
the sad truth is that Sanu isn't going to repeatedly make defenses
pay for loading up to stop Jones. Consider Sanu a low-end WR4
at best.
TE Ladarius
Green 2015 Team: San Diego
2016 Team: Pittsburgh
Fantasy Analysis: It has been an annual rite of spring and summer
over the last few years to hop on the Ladarius Green hype train.
After all, what's not to like about a freakishly talented tight
end with good hands? Certainly, the Chargers will get him on the
field at least one of the four years they have rights to his services
before losing him to free agency, right? Well, San Diego didn't
care about what you thought, so while he set career highs in receptions,
yards and touchdowns last year, Green was essentially mothballed
for four years as the Chargers refused to back off their preference
for three-wide sets and waited for Antonio Gates to get old, even
as their receivers started dropping like flies late last year.
None of that matters now, as Green goes from a team that could
never find a consistent role for him to one that has a huge need
at the position and for a downfield threat in the wake of the
Martavis Bryant suspension. Heath Miller retired after a very
long and productive career in the offseason and Pittsburgh returns
deep threats Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates, but neither of
them are a 6-6 tight end with mid-4.4 speed who will draw safety
or linebacker coverage on a regular basis. Green has missed a
total of five games over the past two seasons (he had offseason
ankle surgery and missed OTAs), so the ability to stay on the
field appears to be the main concern for owners as he finally
attempts to follow through on the promise that we only saw for
brief moments in San Diego. Green in Pittsburgh is a fantasy match
made in heaven and I, for one, am willing to buy into Green as
a potential top-five fantasy tight end, at least a full round
earlier than his current 8.03 ADP in PPR leagues.
TE Coby
Fleener 2015 Team: Indianapolis
2016 Team: New Orleans
Fantasy Analysis: Fleener went a couple of rounds earlier than
Green in the same 2012 draft, and while the former has been more
productive, he too probably can probably make a claim that he
was underutilized with the Colts. Also like Green, the 2016 season
should be a true measure of what Fleener's ceiling is. Now, before
readers start issuing Jimmy Graham-like projections for Fleener
because he's going to play in the same offense, let's keep in
mind that it is his speed - and not the complete package Graham
brought to the table - that is Fleener's biggest selling point.
Even after drafting rookie second-rounder Michael Thomas, the
Saints have an undersized starting receiving corps with 5-10,
189-pound Brandin Cooks and 5-11, 195-pound Willie Snead. Therefore,
adding some size (and mismatch ability) with the 6-6, 251-pound
Fleener on the downs in which HC Sean Payton opts not to go three-wide
with Thomas should give Drew Brees a bigger option to target every
time he drops back. Much as was the case with Graham in New Orleans,
Fleener's biggest impact should be felt in the red zone, not only
because he has proven he can score inside the 20 (11 of his 18
career scores with the Colts came inside the red zone), but also
because Brees has never been shy about leaning on his tight ends
near the goal line (Antonio Gates, Graham, Ben Watson and even
Josh Hill, to a lesser degree). Watson exploded for 74 catches,
825 yards and six touchdowns last season with New Orleans, totals
(with a higher YPC) that are all well within reach for Fleener,
making him an easy mid-range TE1.
TE Jared
Cook 2015 Team: St. Louis
2016 Team: Green Bay
Fantasy Analysis: Donald Lee, Jermichael Finley, Andrew Quarless,
Richard Rodgers - this is the crème de la crème
of tight ends Aaron Rodgers has worked with during his eight-year
run as the full-time starting quarterback of the Packers. Cook
has been something of a perpetual tease for the better part of
his seven seasons in the league, but it is also not hard to understand
why when Vince Young, an aging Kerry Collins, an aging Matt Hasselbeck,
Jake Locker, Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis, Shaun
Hill, Nick Foles and Case Keenum have been the men responsible
for throwing him the ball in mostly run-heavy offenses. Aaron
Rodgers is without a doubt the best quarterback Cook will have
played with in his career, and Cook will be the first seam-stretching
tight end Aaron Rodgers will have at his disposal since Finley.
Owners need to understand that while Richard Rodgers will still
be a part of the equation - and probably the better red-zone option
of the two Green Bay tight ends - Cook is going to have more room
to work down the middle of the field than he ever did in Tennessee
or St. Louis. The Packers don't lack for passing-game weapons,
still have Richard Rodgers around and typically try to remain
a balanced offense, so Cook doesn't deserve the same kind of TE1
billing the first two tight ends on this list do. However, he
should be a near-lock for the 50 catches he collected in each
of his first two seasons as a Ram and a good bet to match or exceed
his career high of five touchdowns set in 2013. As long as owners
consider and draft him as a high-end TE2, I doubt they'll be disappointed
with Cook this season.
TE Ben
Watson 2015 Team: New Orleans
2016 Team: Baltimore
Fantasy Analysis: One of the best stories to emerge from the
2015 season, Watson tied or set career highs with 74 receptions,
825 yards and six touchdowns during his age-35 season for the
Saints. As great as that story was, an equally bizarre one came
during free agency when he made the move from "The Big Easy"
to "The Charm City", leaving behind a strong passing
game for which he was a vital part to go to a team that already
had a 2015 second-round pick (Maxx Williams), a 2014 third-round
selection (Crockett Gillmore) and Dennis Pitta at his position.
As many of you well know, Pitta was Joe Flacco's go-to guy before
injuries (specifically his hip surgeries) halted a promising career
starting in 2013. As time has passed, however, the signing began
to make more sense. Gillmore is trying to come back from shoulder
surgery, Williams averaged 8.4 YPC and Pitta is still on the comeback
trail. Regardless, Watson has virtually no chance at finishing
anywhere close to the numbers he posted last year, if not for
the quality of tight ends already on the roster, then because
he will be in a more balanced offense and downgrading from Brees
to Flacco. Watson still deserves to be drafted and will be an
occasional factor in fantasy, but likely not often enough to be
considered much more than a middling TE2 in most leagues.
This concludes the should-be-drafted portion of our segment.
Below is a list of players that may get drafted in deeper leagues,
some of whom I believe should be selected and some of whom I don't
(sorted by position and then alphabetical order):
Fantasy Analysis: There's no question RG3 could be more than
waiver-wire fodder in most leagues this year based solely on the
likelihood the Browns will trailing in most of their games and
given his running ability. Gary Barnidge gives him a very good
option over the middle of the field, Duke Johnson should continue
to strike fear defenses on the perimeter and rookie Corey Coleman
should be able to hit his share of big plays, so it is not as
if Griffin doesn't have a shot to be a serviceable fantasy QB2.
His biggest problems are his lack of durability and a viable backup
in Josh McCown, who could take over at a moment's notice should
the former No. 2 overall pick fall on his face early.
QB Mark
Sanchez 2015 Team: Philadelphia
2016 Team: Denver
Fantasy Analysis: Let's be honest; it is nearly impossible to
put much faith into Sanchez as anything more than someone to keep
the seat warm for rookie Paxton Lynch this season. On the plus
side, the No. 5 overall pick in 2009 has more really good weapons
to work with than at any point during his career, such as Demaryius
Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and up-and-coming TE Jeff Heuerman. HC
Gary Kubiak's run-oriented, play-action rollout system also suits
Sanchez well. Moreover, the running game and defense should keep
Denver in games, further reducing whatever pressure he might feel
to take the game into his own hands. However, that is about it
for the positives. Lynch and even projected third-stringer Trevor
Siemian could each make starts in 2016 if Sanchez becomes the
turnover machine Peyton Manning was prior to sitting out most
of the second half of the season. It will be hard to defend using
Sanchez as a bye-week fill-in.
RB Donald
Brown 2015 Team: San Diego
2016 Team: New England
Fantasy Analysis: It always seems like faint praise any time
your former boss says something like, "I bet he'll succeed
over there." Chargers team president John Spanos did as much
following Brown's signing with New England, telling CSN
New England, "He is such a perfect Patriots signing.
I would bet anything he’s going to be a productive player
for them.” Here's why Spanos might actually be right: At
5-10 and 207 pounds, Brown is one part scatback and one part running
back, making him a serviceable fill-in for Dion Lewis or LeGarrette
Blount should either one get hurt. For all of his faults, Brown
can do a little bit of everything - he has graded well as a pass-blocker
- and that alone makes him an upgrade over James White, who is
a poor man's Lewis as a receiver and offers little else. White's
roster spot is in danger as a result. Brandon Bolden is primarily
a special-teamer who seems to get the call each year when the
Patriots' running back depth chart gets depleted. Brown should
be the first back to see the field the moment Lewis or Blount
is forced to miss time, and I'd venture a guess one or both backs
will spend some time on the sideline before midseason. Given Lewis'
durability (not to mention his huge fantasy upside in PPR leagues),
Brown will likely make for a sensible handcuff for him and should
be available in the final rounds of drafts.
RB Khiry
Robinson 2015 Team: New Orleans
2016 Team: NY Jets
Fantasy Analysis: Robinson is the clear early-down RB2 behind
Forte in New York now - a role that isn't exactly ripe with fantasy-point
potential when all is well. But what are the chances of that happening
with a back entering his age-31 season? It helps Forte's cause
that has done so much of his damage as a receiver during the first
eight years of his career, but older backs eventually get old
regardless, right? There is a strong chance Robinson will handle
short-yardage/goal-line duties right away, so he's going to be
roster-worthy in most leagues, but what keeps him from approaching
Chris Ivory's 2015 fantasy value if/when Forte gets dinged? Finding
a way to grab the former Saint should be a priority for any owner
late in drafts, if only because the Jets figure to be one of the
better offenses in the league again this season and should spend
their share of time in the red zone. It should go without saying
that Robinson should be a top priority for Forte owners as well.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.