Writing such a piece (supporting the notion that receivers are
wise early investments) even a few years ago might have been blasphemy
for me, but today's fantasy football is not the same game most
of us played 20, 10 or even five years ago. While I haven't finalized
work on the Big Boards for this season, I can say with about 99.5
percent certainty a receiver (and probably more than one) will
sit atop my rankings for the first time. The zero-WR strategy
has received a lot of pub in recent years - especially this year
- but I still believe it is as fundamentally unsound now as I
always have (outside of the FFPC and TFC high-stakes leagues,
in which it is often the right approach given the format and rules).
However, I am willing to acknowledge receivers - the right ones
- are more stable fantasy properties than running backs, so it
is about time that shift in thinking is reflected in my rankings
going forward. With that said, it is important to understand just
how unusual the 2015 season was at the running back position.
Let's take a quick look:
2015: RB1s (RB1-RB12) averaged
262 touches for 1,336 total yards and 9.3 touchdowns (229.6
PPR fantasy points)
2010-14: RB1s averaged 310 touches
for 1,620 total yards and 10.6 TDs (270.6)
2015: RB2s (RB13-RB24) averaged
217.2 touches for 1,084 total yards and 5.1 touchdowns (176.2)
2010-14: RB2s averaged 241.6 touches
for 1,139 total yards and 7.1 touchdowns (189.4)
Injuries to Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon
Bell weren't the only factor in the overall RB decline of
2015.
RB1s averaged 218.4 carries last season and RB2s checked in at
176. Meanwhile, the worst single-season marks in the previous
five seasons were 249.9 and 183.7, respectively. The drop for
the RB1s was so dramatic that it is hard to believe running backs
won't experience a significant rebound this year, especially in
light of all the information I collected for this little study
going back to 2002. Three of the top 12 finishers (total PPR points)
last year played 13 or fewer games and three of the top 12 totaled
165 or fewer rush attempts, which should be an indication as to
how low the bar was set in 2015. Injuries to proven 300-touch
fantasy stalwarts like Le'Veon
Bell and Jamaal
Charles contributed to the declines across the board, but
what stuck out to me last year is the complete lack of job security
about 75-85 percent of starting running backs have nowadays.
Lesson learned.
Fantasy owners don't get to choose how the intended and unintended
consequences of coaching-philosophy or rules changes affect our
game, but it is our job to react quickly and intelligently to
them if we want to win consistently. Running backs aren’t
less important in fantasy than they used to be (although the right ones
are arguably worth more now), there just aren't near enough with
the job security or requisite workload to build our teams with
anymore, so it is pointless to force it when receivers seemingly
have incredible job security and are seeing as many targets as
they ever have at a less physically demanding position. When you consider
receivers like Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are seeing nearly
as many opportunities as some low-end RB1s are getting carries
and remember the former is usually getting the ball in their hands
at least 10 yards down the field, it is no wonder wideouts are
taking over the fantasy landscape. Add to that the fact receivers
suffer far less punishment, and it is no wonder they have emerged
as the safer investments.
Class is dismissed for this week.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.